Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:55PM Friday March 24, 2017 12:23 AM EDT (04:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:37AMMoonset 3:07PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 959 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with light rain likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Cloudy. Rain likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms until late afternoon...then light rain likely late in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Light rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then diminishing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Rain. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201703240900;;979884 FZUS53 KDTX 240200 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 959 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LHZ421-240900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 232309
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
709 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Aviation
A period of light showers will be possible overnight as a warm front
approaches from the southwest. Ceilings will also lower into the
MVFR to lowerVFR range with this activity. Low level jet of 45
knots or so will produce llws. As the warm front lifts into region
on Friday, expect increasing southerly flow with gusts to 25 knots
possible north to around kptk. Front will stall somewhere in the
kfnt area, so winds will be slightly weaker to the north. Will
maintain the MVFR ceilings given lack of warm front push through the
area. In fact, ceilings will likely lower further into Friday night
as the front sags back south through the area.

For dtw... Ceilings are expected to drop to 5 kft or less in the 05z-
08z window with a few passing showers. Additional restricting MVFR
ceilings around 2 kft are expected after 15z. Wind gusts will also
emerge in this time window with values around 25 kts - occasionally
reaching 30 kt.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for CIGS falling below 5000 ft 05z-08z tonight.

* medium for CIGS falling below 5000 ft after 15z Friday.

* high for gusts exceeding 25 knots Friday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 302 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
discussion...

upper ridge axis over michigan will flatten tonight as shortwave
energy arrives, first from mn/ia this evening and then as additional
energy ejects out of the upper low over the desert southwest. Strong
60kt low-level jet will surge up into michigan late as the desert
southwest low moves towards the plains. This will send a warm front
up through lower michigan this evening and tonight. Min temps in the
30s should be reached in the evening and early overnight before
beginning to rise. Band of isentropic ascent (290-300k) and strong
theta-e advection, supported by upper diffluence, will bring a
chance for rain showers after 10 pm. Will keep pops higher north of
i-69, where the nose of the low-level jet will push in as the front
lifts northward. Very dry air will initially allow for some cooling
in the low-levels due to wet-bulb effects at precipitation onset.

Quick arrival of warmer air and will make the chance for
snow/sleet/freezing rain brief and low. Enough warm air will arrive
with the low-level jet to increase elevated instability, and would
not be surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder, but potential is
low overall.

Frontal boundary will stall over the area late tonight, with
convergence increasing along this boundary as the upper low moves
through the plains and as upper energy moves through canada around
another low over hudson bay. The front will only sink slightly south
Friday and Friday night as both these features move east. Strong and
moist southwest flow will meanwhile ride over the frontal boundary,
and combined with right entrance region forcing from a strong upper
jet streak, will yield a high chance for rain over northern lower
michigan Friday, and then across central michigan Friday night as
the front sinks south. Well-mixed but shallow boundary layer in the
warm sector combined with abundant cloud cover lends some
uncertainty to the temperature forecast tomorrow. With 925-850mb
temps only rising to 9-12c, kept MAX temps in the 50s over the
northern thumb and saginaw valley, and low to mid 60s elsewhere.

The front, and rain along it, will sink into southern lower michigan
Saturday as strong high pressure develops over ontario and quebec.

It will make little progress beyond that however as the upper low
tracking into the ohio valley and southern great lakes stalls the
front or slides it back slightly northward Saturday night into
Sunday. MAX temperatures will vary widely across the area on
Saturday, ranging from the low 40s north of saginaw to around 60
near the ohio border.

Overall, the quasi-stationary frontal boundary is expected
to remain over southeast michigan through the weekend, leading to a
prolonged period of wet weather.

As weakening low pressure approaches southeast michigan on Sunday
rain will continue throughout the day as southerly flow advects
mild, moist air into the region. Following the passage of the low
across central lower michigan on Sunday night a brief interlude in
rain will occur on Monday. Temperatures during this period will
remain mild with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s both Sunday and
Monday. Rain chances then return Monday night and Tuesday as another
wave crosses the great lakes. High pressure builds in during the
middle of next week bringing drier conditions with temperatures near
normal for late march with highs in the lower 50s and lows in the
30s.

Marine...

modest southeasterly flow will veer to southwesterly by Friday
morning as a weak warm front lifts across the region. Highest speeds
will be across west lake erie and lake st clair, where gusts will
approach 25 kts. Given the offshore nature of the flow, waves are
expected to remain in the 2-3 foot range. A stronger surface low
will approach the lakes region Saturday, flipping the flow to the
northeast and freshening across lake huron. Winds will maintain a
southerly component over erie and st clair early Saturday before
slowly transitioning to easterly flow.

Hydrology...

widespread rainfall is expected across southeast michigan for most
of the upcoming weekend. Rainfall totals from Saturday through
Sunday are expected to approach or exceed an inch across the region.

Specifically totals in the 1-1.25 inch range are possible across the
saginaw valley with slightly lesser amounts elsewhere. Runoff from
the rainfall will increase flow rates and water levels in local
streams and rivers. However, widespread flooding is not expected.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Hlo/jd
marine... ... .Mann
hydrology... .Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi43 min SSE 12 G 13 35°F 1021.7 hPa
KP58 20 mi32 min SSE 7 G 16 36°F 1021.6 hPa19°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi43 min Calm G 2.9 35°F 1022 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi53 min S 13 G 16 35°F 1021.2 hPa22°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi83 min SSE 13 G 15 35°F 1020.7 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bad Axe, Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi27 minS 9 G 1410.00 miOvercast36°F18°F49%1021 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi32 minSSE 7 G 16 mi36°F19°F50%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmS4S5S9S11S12
G15
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N7N7CalmNW6W3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3
2 days agoN3CalmNW4N7N4CalmCalmSW3W5W8NW10
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.