Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:31 PM EDT (17:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:08AMMoonset 4:18PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 956 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning...then numerous showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning...then building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming west 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers until late afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy early in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201708172100;;522595 FZUS53 KDTX 171357 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 956 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-172100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 171700
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
100 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Aviation
Main moisture axis producing widespread showers is pushing through
southeast michigan early this afternoon. Coverage of thunderstorms
is limited with modest instability, and confidence in thunderstorms
directly impacting TAF sites this afternoon and early this evening
is low, and will thus handle with vcts. Mid level dry slot around
this evening providingVFR and partly cloudy skies, with cool
cyclonic flow then spreading MVFR stratus deck from northwest to
southeast across the area, reaching southern TAF sites early
tomorrow morning. Breezy southwest winds tomorrow, gusting between
20 to 25 knots, with standard diurnal rise in cloud bases intoVFR
during afternoon.

For dtw... Strong thunderstorm along southern michigan border should
remain south of the terminal early this afternoon, and confidence in
additional thunderstorm activity is low late this afternoon.

Any thunderstorm threat ending early this evening, with partly
cloudy skies late this evening into tonight before high MVFR ceilings
arrive early tomorrow morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in thunderstorms through early this evening.

* high in ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon, then again
tomorrow, otherwise low.

Prev discussion
Issued at 954 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
update...

arcing line of elevated convection anchored along the lead push of
mid level theta-e advection will clear the thumb corridor within the
next couple hours. Attention now shifts upstream, as aggressive
expansion of a very moist warm conveyor belt pivots toward the
region. Focused increase in precipitation coverage ongoing as
projected by recent cams guidance through this corridor lake
michigan into indiana , with a steady downstream propagation into
southeast michigan anticipated for the early-mid afternoon period.

This timing certainly presents a murky picture in terms of possible
convective vigor moving forward today.

Ambient and inbound enviroment certainly characterized as tropical,
defined by dewpoints in the lower 70s and pw in excess of 2 inches.

This will contain lapse rate potential, while also suggesting that
cloud cover will remain problematic. The aforementioned arrival of
the upstream activity will only contribute to this issue, elevating
concerns that a larger window for better diurnal heating and
subsequent greater destabilization will never materialize. The
underlying forcing - warm frontal, weak shortwave energy and
continued moisture transport - presents higher confidence in
witnessing additional convective development maintenance through the
afternoon early evening period, but with low confidence in achieving
a more robust convective response. A solid deep layer wind field and
potential for a slightly backed near surface profile will continue to
give pause for possible organized, rotating updrafts... Particularly
if convection can intersect the advancing warm front before the
boundary lifts northeast of the region. In addition, a water loaded
profile could also generate stronger wind gusts given the
corresponding higher CAPE density.

Update simply to refine precipitation chances going forward based on
latest radar and model trends.

Prev discussion...

issued at 344 am edt Thu aug 17 2017
discussion...

a mature and stacked low pressure system over the upper ms valley
will lift northeast into the northern great lakes tonight and into
quebec by Friday night. This system will provide the focus for
showers and thunderstorms over the next two days as well as the
chance of severe weather this afternoon. A warm front will lift
north through lower mi this morning putting SE mi solidly in the
warm sector for the bulk of the afternoon and evening hours. A
prefrontal trough will push through this afternoon evening before
the cold front sweeps through early tonight. Best chance of severe
storms will occur from about 17-02z.

Current radar shows the eastern flank of the 850mb front lifting
into southern mi at press time. This early convection should remain
elevated but could produce some brief heavy downpours. Best frontal
forcing this morning will be well to the NW closer to the low and
the current 850mb jet is surging northward through wi and western
portions of lake mi. This leading front will usher in the first wave
of deeper moisture with pwats rising to nearly 2 inches. Models
advertise a second jump as the surface warm front lifts through
sending pwats over 2.25 inches.

The setup for the afternoon will garner a bit more attention as
ingredients continue to come together for potential severe weather.

As the upper low slides north and east, region of stronger upper
level diffluence will slide overhead. This occuring as the left
exit region of the jet noses into lower mi. Looking lower in the
column, a resurgence of the low level jet will work into lower mi
with speeds of 30-40 knots. MUCAPE is set to rise toward 1500 j kg
while ongoing convection tries to limit surfaced based capes more
between 500-1000 j kg. Hires wind profile is keeping winds backed a
bit more to the SE increasing the chances of rotating storms and
perhaps a tornado. Low level helicity and model hodographs look
pretty good so potential is there, especially taking into account
such a moist environment and lower lcls. Otherwise, the instability
and shear present should be enough to produce strong to severe
storms. Wind is the primary threat with heavy rainfall producing
localized flooding a possibility as well. SPC has included SE mi in
slight risk for severe weather this afternoon.

Chances of showers will continue into Friday as a shortwave trough
rotates around the low and through SE mi. Lingering low level
moisture and increase low level lapse rates with cooler air moving
in aloft behind the cold front should produce a scattered coverage
of showers. Broad area of surface high pressure will begin building
back north into the region Friday and looks to hold at least into
Monday as it drifts toward the atlantic coast. Before ridging
follows suite aloft, a shortwave and strengthening vort MAX will
dive down through the backside of the trough on Saturday. This will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day. The
trend is for a stronger system which will dig deeper southward into
the ohio valley. The result would be for decreasing precip chances
across mid mi, possibly becoming a dry forecast. As for
temperatures, the surface ridge sliding to our southeast will open
the door for southerly return flow and a warming trend early in the
week. This will end Tuesday when the next cold front is slated to
sweep through the region.

Marine...

the combination of low pressure lifting into upper michigan today
and departing high pressure to the east of the region will support
increasing southeast winds during the course of the day. An
associated warm front will lift into lake huron by evening, which
will only act to enhance the s-se pressure gradient. Gusts across
the open waters of lake huron will top 25 knot at times today, while
the warm front provides showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall from
this convection will be quite heavy and will significantly reduce
visibility. Winds will veer to the southwest tonight as the surface
low passing across the northern great lakes drives an associated
cold front across the lakes. Post frontal cold air advection will
boost the over-lake instability profile, thus causing gusty winds
and hazardous small craft conditions that will persist through the
day Friday. Winds and waves will then decrease over the weekend as
the gradient relaxes.

Hydrology...

a low pressure system approaching the northern great lakes will
drive a moisture rich atmosphere into SE mi this morning. The
initial arrival of this air mass will be marked by the passage of a
warm front this morning, triggering showers and thunderstorms. A
moist and unstable air mass will then persist across the area
through late evening when the passage of an associated cold front.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
between these two frontal features. With a tropical airmass in
place, thunderstorms will be capable of producing very heavy
rainfall. There is high probabilities that 24 hour rain totals,
ending Friday morning, will range from one half inch to one inch.

Locally higher amounts are expected, possibly greater than two
inches. This raises the concerns for some localized flooding today.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 10 pm edt this evening for miz049.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Friday for lhz421-422.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Friday for lhz441-442.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sf
update... ... .Mr
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi27 min SSE 17 G 24 71°F 1009.5 hPa
KP58 20 mi41 min SE 12 G 21 70°F 1008.4 hPa67°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi52 min SSE 4.1 G 7 69°F 1009.8 hPa
45163 23 mi32 min SSE 12 G 14 71°F 71°F2 ft
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi44 min SSE 17 G 20 70°F 1009.5 hPa67°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi32 min S 15 G 16 73°F 1008.1 hPa (-1.4)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 44 mi42 min SSE 18 G 19 67°F 67°F4 ft1010.2 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi38 minSSE 87.00 miOvercast70°F67°F93%1010.2 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi41 minSE 12 G 21 mi70°F66°F90%1008.4 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E6E5E7E4CalmCalmE3E3E4CalmE3SE3SE6SE6SE7SE6SE5S6S6SE8
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1 day agoCalmNW6NW3CalmNE5NE5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3E4E4
2 days agoS8S9S9S8S6SE5CalmCalmCalmE4E4SE3CalmS3S3CalmCalmW3CalmNW5NE4N4NW4NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.