Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 5:07PM Monday November 20, 2017 8:34 AM EST (13:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:17AMMoonset 6:56PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 240 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.gale warning in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy early in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers early in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201711201615;;683387 FZUS53 KDTX 200740 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 240 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-201615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201045
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
545 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Aviation
Moderate southwesterly flow will persist through the forecast
period. Wind gusts to 25 knots will emerge during the afternoon
hours as diurnal mixing builds the boundary layer into higher
momentum just off the surface. After sunset, the winds in the 1-2kft
layer will increase dramatically (approaching 60kt at 2kft).

Therefore, likely a pronounced speed shear layer starting around
1kft. No restrictions due to clouds or reduced visibility.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 236 am est Mon nov 20 2017
discussion...

as alaska NW canada serve as the primary conduit of energy into the
consolidating hudson bay vortex, baroclinic westerlies will
strengthen and contract north over the next several days. During
this time, multiple mid-level impulses will track over or north of
the area with high confidence in a mean storm track north of lake
superior for the remainder of the week. Effects in southeast
michigan will be high variability in temperatures centered about
seasonal average values as a series of low impact cold front sweep
across the area Tuesday into next week. The first shortwave in this
prolonged sequence is evident over northwest canada digging into
alberta early this morning. Downstream ridging will translate across
southeast michigan forcing return flow to get underway in earnest as
high pressure slips east. 850mb temperatures are modeled to rebound
toward 5c by this evening after being below -10c 24 hours prior.

Gusty southwest gradient wind and mostly sunny skies will only help
matters as temperatures moderate by about 10 degrees compared to
yesterday, or low to mid 40s. The gradient will be sufficiently
strong to maintain a mechanically mixed boundary layer through
tonight, suggesting siding with the warmer guidance in the mid to
upper 30s. Airmass exchange will already be complete by Tuesday
raising potential high temps a few degrees further, toward 50
degrees, increasing high clouds limiting the potential to go any
higher. Once again leaned toward the warmer guidance; in this case
mos and raw ECMWF output - some members of the nwp suite actually
have snowpack and thus keep temps far too low. Cold FROPA tues aftn
will be rather uneventful as the time window for good dynamic
forcing will be just be a couple of hours as the developing surface
front sweeps through coincident with strongly convergent mid-level
forcing aloft. Chc pops remain appropriate with just a
narrow transient band of light rain transitioning to light non-
accumulating snow expected. Cold advection will dump 850mb temps
back toward -10c for Wednesday before the pattern approximately
repeats itself and a moderating trend back into the 40s to possibly
50 degrees gets underway for the second half of the week. Long range
modeling continues to suggest a couple more cold shots before
downstream effects of a pac jet extension forces the polar low to
retreat suggesting a period of milder wx to close out the final days
of the month.

Marine...

winds will remain fresh today, as the region is sandwiched between
high pressure slipping through to the south and an approaching low
pressure system from the west. The current westerly flow will back
to southwesterly early in the day. Expectations are for a corridor
of higher speeds emerging from saginaw bay into the central body of
lake huron, with sustained winds increasing to near 30 knots. Near
surface stability will be increasing as warmer air washes across the
region. Therefore, wind gust potential will be limited to lower-end
gale gusts - mainly constrained to the central half of lake huron
(including outer saginaw bay). Elsewhere, the fresh flow will
support small craft headlines. In the wake of the surface cold front
on Tuesday, the flow will veer to northwesterly with the strongest
flow confined to the northern half of lake huron - again gusts in
the 35-40 knot range. Significant waves on lake huron will peak
around 10 feet during the gale event with occasional waves exceeding
15 feet in the central basin. Otherwise, the near surface will
destabilize behind the cold front, reintroducing lake-effect showers
across the entire basin.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est Tuesday for lhz421-
462.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est Wednesday
for lhz441.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm est Tuesday for
lhz442-443.

Gale warning from 10 am to 10 pm est Tuesday for lhz361.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Tuesday for lhz363.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est Wednesday for
lhz362.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Tuesday
for lhz422.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mann
discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi54 min SSW 19 G 25 35°F 1013.9 hPa
KP58 20 mi43 min 4.1 32°F 1014.4 hPa25°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi54 min SW 13 G 17 32°F 1013.2 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi46 min SSW 7 G 8.9 30°F 1013.3 hPa25°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi34 min SW 23 G 26 34°F 1012.9 hPa (+0.0)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 44 mi44 min SW 18 G 21 36°F 45°F4 ft1013.7 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NW11
G17
NW12
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NW14
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NW12
G16
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G15
N11
G14
NW10
G15
W13
G20
NW12
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W9
G17
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G15
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G17
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G19
W7
G14
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G11
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G11
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1 day
ago
SW5
G8
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W2
N5
N4
N11
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N18
G24
N18
G23
N20
G25
N21
G28
N24
G31
N26
G33
N25
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N25
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G31
NW18
G28
NW17
G28
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G22
NW13
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G16
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G23
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2 days
ago
SW5
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G10
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G11
SE20
G25
S12
G16
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G17
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G21
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G21
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G19
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G25
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G24
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G25
S22
S18
G25
S17
G22
S8
G11
S7
G10
S6
G9
S5
S6
S5
SW6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi39 minSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy31°F25°F81%1013.9 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi43 minVar 4 mi32°F25°F75%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11
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W8W9W6SW7SW6SW5SW6SW5SW6SW7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3N5N7N11
G15
N8N13
G18
N12N13N15
G20
N17
G26
N17
G24
N15
G24
NW18
G27
NW19
G27
NW14
G20
NW14
G22
NW13
G20
NW11
G18
NW12
G17
NW9NW11
G15
2 days agoS6S6S8
G16
SE10
G15
S10S11
G17
S16
G19
S12S9S13
G20
S14
G18
S16
G20
S13
G18
S14S11
G20
S10SW8S6S5S4S4S3SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.