Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:29PM Monday September 24, 2018 1:14 AM EDT (05:14 UTC) Moonrise 6:41PMMoonset 5:38AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 924 Pm Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Monday through late Monday night...
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Showers likely early in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms until late afternoon. A chance of light showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201809240900;;111576 FZUS53 KDTX 240132 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 924 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-240900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240353
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1153 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018

Aviation
Low level dry air and midlevel anticyclonic flow will keep
conditions quiet throughout the overnight. There remains some
potential for very shallow ground based radiation fog around
sunrise, but light easterly gradient flow will exist. A substantial
amount of low level moisture advection will then ramp up on Monday
as flow turns southerly ahead of the approaching plains trough.

Model soundings show a significant amount of low level saturation
developing during the midday period for all of the southern taf
sites. Generally, went slightly slower with onset timing of MVFR cig
heights and hydrometeor timing. Given the lack of midlevel
saturation in the soundings, preference was to just carry a
prevailing mention of -dz during the afternoon. Best potential for
light rainfall will lift into far southeast michigan after 03z
Tuesday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for cigs AOB 5kft after 15z Monday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 353 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
discussion...

a "chamber of commerce" day is unfolding for the first full day of
autumn around SE michigan thanks to high pressure in control. Full
sun with light and variable wind and neutral low level thermal
advection allowed afternoon temperatures to reach normal values in
the upper 60s and lower 70s and sets the stage for a typical late
september night. The surface high shrinks eastward and the cold
front dissipates over the northern great lakes tonight as these
features give way to low pressure organizing over the northern
plains and upper midwest. This process sharpens the surface pressure
gradient over lower michigan enough to maintain an easterly wind in
the 5 to 10 knot range that likely holds up against nocturnal
decoupling and prevents temperatures from reaching full radiational
cooling potential across SE michigan. Guidance min temps in the
upper 40s to lower 50s - upper 50s metro detroit - look good across
the board.

Changes then get underway in our area during Monday mainly due to
backing flow aloft and strengthening southerly low level flow ahead
of the upper level trough over the plains. This process sets off a
northward return of moisture from the sharp frontal zone stalled
across the tennessee valley along with a northward move of the upper
wave shearing out of the lower mississippi valley. The broad frontal
system over the plains and upper midwest carries strong 850-700 mb
theta-e advection northward into lower michigan during Monday
afternoon. This results in scattered high based showers increasing
coverage toward evening as the southern stream wave shears toward
the ohio border and adds a dynamic component of lift to the strong
moisture transport. The new round of 12z model data hints at the
bulk of the added short wave influence occuring south of the i-69
corridor with a slight eastward shift in the QPF axis. Coverage and
intensity may then start out lower toward the tri cities Monday
evening before a secondary surge of moisture transport occurs during
the night, originating over the western great lakes and increasing
coverage areawide through the night. The moisture surge occurs as
the southern stream upper wave exits east of lake erie and the
midwest upper trough and frontal system move closer to the western
great lakes. Low level jet enhancement then fuels nocturnal
expansion of showers over lower michigan with a few thunderstorms
possible in weak elevated instability.

The Monday night rain pattern ushers the warm sector air mass into
se michigan by Tuesday morning ahead of the cold front extending
across the western great lakes. Convective trends become the
forecast focus and the subject of the current day 3 slight risk
outlook. At this time range, the 3km NAM is the only high res run
offering output for Tuesday afternoon. It shows a quick recovery of
surface based instability after a wet and cloudy start to the day
for late afternoon convective initiation within a prefrontal trough.

Both high res and synoptic scale model consensus of MLCAPE around
1500 j kg combined with a strong wind field, anchored by 50 knots at
500 mb, does support organized thunderstorms but strongly dependent
on that projected CAPE actually materializes. The cold front itself
then sweeps through with a shower pattern mostly within the mid
levels and trailing the surface front for the rest of Tuesday night.

Showers and thunderstorms chances will continue along an approaching
cold front, however, long-range models diverge regarding the timing
of the front. The gem and ECMWF are the quickest of the group,
pushing the front through during the Wed 06 - 12z timeframe. The gfs
is slower with the passage of the front, bringing the front through
between Wed 12 - 18z. Timing of the front will have implications
regarding the end time of rain and thunderstorm chances. Left in the
chance for rain throughout Wednesday morning in the forecast to
account for the possibility of a slower moving cold front.

The introduction of cooler air and zonal flow aloft will bring an
extended period of slightly below normal temperatures for the
remainder of the forecasting period. Daytime highs are expected to
stay below the 70 mark, peaking in the low 60s north of i-69 up to
the upper 60s souther of i-96. Overnight lows in the 40s are
expected during this timeframe, with warmer lows in the lower 50s
across the urban metro area. Lack of meaningful forcing will keep
conditions relatively dry as an area of higher pressure holds across
the eastern u.S.

The next chance for rain will move in Saturday into Sunday as a
potential baroclinic zone sets up across southern michigan. The
ecmwf run sets up an overrunning scenario across a stationary front
as the main cause of rain chances over the weekend, however, the gfs
and gem are more aggressive with increasing theta-e advection
through the same timeframe, which would also provide rain chances to
the area.

Marine...

fresh easterly flow will gradually veer to southeasterly through
Monday. Onshore flow will build significant wave heights to several
feet during this time. Small craft advisories therefore remain in
effect. By Monday night... The long-duration southeast wind will
build maximum wave heights into the 10 to 15 foot range over much of
central lake huron. Wind will then diminish on Tuesday as low
pressure moves over the waters. However, moderate to fresh northwest
flow will quickly redevelop on Wednesday as a large canadian high
builds from the west.

Hydrology...

numerous showers are expected Monday evening and Monday night as a
warm front lifts into the state. Rainfall totals of one quarter to
one half-inch are anticipated. No flooding is expected.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Tuesday for lhz441>443.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Tuesday for lhz421.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Bt am
marine... ... .Jvc
hydrology... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi35 min ENE 18 G 20 59°F 1025.4 hPa
KP58 20 mi24 min E 15 60°F 1024.8 hPa55°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi35 min E 15 G 21 58°F 1025.7 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi45 min 59°F 62°F1025 hPa54°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi75 min E 19 G 23 59°F 1024 hPa (+0.6)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 44 mi85 min ENE 19 G 23 56°F 63°F5 ft1025.6 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi39 minENE 510.00 miFair54°F51°F91%1025.1 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi24 minE 15 mi60°F55°F84%1024.8 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmNW3CalmE4NE4NE5NE6NE4NE4NE6NE4NE5
1 day agoNW10NW9
G16
NW8NW7NW6NW8NW6NW5N9N9
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N7N8NE3N4NW4CalmE5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.