Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 9:22PM Sunday June 24, 2018 12:34 PM EDT (16:34 UTC) Moonrise 5:02PMMoonset 2:45AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 955 Am Edt Sun Jun 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Becoming partly cloudy late in the afternoon. Showers in the late morning and early afternoon...then a slight chance of light showers late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201806242130;;039515 FZUS53 KDTX 241355 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 955 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-242130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 241354
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
954 am edt Sun jun 24 2018

Update
Strengthening deformation yielding underachieving coverage of
showers this morning except for a small area around bay county.

Developing frontal zone is already showing signs of forward progress,
thus further limiting QPF in any one location for the remainder of
the day. Model progs have continually overestimated the quality of
moisture in the resident airmass, suggesting reason to more strongly
weight the most recent initializations of the 06z NAM and 12z hrrr,
both of which support a forecast for shower potential worthy of a chc
pop for most of the area during the late morning and remainder of the
afternoon. Mention of thunder removed per SPC day 1 forecast and
lack of worthy instability across the board. Finally, beach hazards
statements no longer necessary with forecast temps at the shoreline
in the low to mid 60s, overcast, and high shower coverage. Updated
grids products forthcoming.

Prev discussion
Issued at 652 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
aviation...

surface trough axis continues to remain around the m-59 corridor,
with midlevel shortwave moving across southeast michigan focusing
the best low-level moisture axis across kmbs, kfnt, and kptk. The
detroit metro tafs will continue to be in the relative warm sector
of this feature, with dry punch noted in water vapor imagery helping
to better mix out low-level clouds. Ifr MVFR ceilings with
occasional ifr MVFR visibility will continue at kmbs, kfnt, and kptk
through at least the morning hours, with potential for more
persistent ifr conditions if heavier showers can form near those taf
sites. For kdtw, kdet, kyip, will lean more optimistically with
ceiling trends favoring predominately low-endVFR with potential to
dip to MVFR range this morning. Shower activity will also be focused
to the north, with a very low chance of a thunderstorm. Activity
wanes rapidly mid late afternoon as influence of drier air
associated with high pressure building south from the northern great
lakes becomes more apparent. Cloud cover will also dissipate rapidly
towards sunset from north to south withVFR prevailing at all sites.

Nw flow will gradually become NE with time today and into tonight
remaining 10 knots or less except at kmbs where gusts of 15-20 knots
will be possible 18z-00z.

For dtw... Predominately low-endVFR ceilings are anticipated as
greater low-level moisture and shower activity remains further
north. Potential for NE runaway ops this evening into the early
overnight with winds around 7 knots.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through mid-morning. Moderate
mid-morning into early afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms during afternoon.

Prev discussion...

issued at 317 am edt Sun jun 24 2018
discussion...

a compact mid level wave now rotating across metro chicago will
traverse the southern mi border this morning. There will be a region
of enhanced deformation across central lower mi on the northern
flank of this wave. This will occur within an axis of mid level
moisture (700mb dewpoints around +3c). Despite little in the way of
elevated instability, the enhanced forcing will be efficient in
sustaining a region of rain during the morning. Model soundings
within the mid level moist axis indicate a deep moist adiabatic
profile, with precip water values around 1.6 inches. So even though
thunder chances look minimal, locally high rainfall totals (in
excess of an inch) are of concern. Mid level dry air will advance
across the southern two thirds of the forecast area (south of the i-
69 corridor) this morning with the passage of this wave. This will
limit the rainfall through much of the morning to the saginaw
valley thumb region.

The departure of the upper wave to the east this afternoon will
cause the mid level deformation to fall apart. The remnant moist axis
will then be forced south across the area supporting some scattered
showers. Daytime heating will cause weak destabilization across the
southern half of the forecast area, warranting a chance of a
thunderstorm. There will be some enhancement to the sfc
troughing frontal boundary over SE mi. By late morning this front is
forecast to bisect the area. The expected rain and increasing
north northeast winds off lake huron will hold temps in the 60s
across the saginaw valley and thumb. Diurnal heating south of the
boundary will however allow afternoon highs to rise well into the
70s across metro detroit ann arbor and points south. As the front
pushes south during the afternoon, post frontal northerly winds will
offer a cooling trend into the evening hours.

High pressure now over northern ontario will strengthen as it gets
driven into great lakes region tonight into Monday under an
amplifying mid level ridge across the area. This will send nighttime
temps down into the 50s (perhaps some upper 40s in the thumb).

Diurnal mixing under ample Sun and dry air will boost Monday highs
into the 70s away from lake huron. This ridge will break down tues
with the approach of a deep upper wave from the west. An influx of
moisture and instability will accompany this wave, supporting a good
chance for convection late tues into Wednesday. Although the mid
level wave is forecast to weaken a bit, the upper trough is
currently forecast to pass across SE mi sometime Wednesday. This
wave will have a decent wind field associated with it. If timing
lines up to where the upper trough slides across SE mi during peak
heating on Wed (as shown by both GFS and ecmwf) severe convection
will be of concern.

The medium range model suite are in strong agreement in showing the
subtropical ridge expanding across the ohio valley and great lakes
during the end of the work week, then across the eastern great
lakes mid atlantic over the weekend. This will result in hot and
humid conditions across SE mi.

Marine...

broad and diffuse low pressure will continue to depart to the east
of the region today as high pressure builds in its wake. A
tightening pressure gradient will lead to moderate northeasterly
flow across much of the local waters, and especially across central
and southern lake huron including saginaw bay. Gusts will approach
25 knots at times today across the lake huron nearshore waters
leading to hazardous conditions for small craft. Scattered showers
will continue to be possible for much of today as low-level moisture
lingers. Drier weather will move in on Monday with slightly
diminished northeasterly flow below 20 knots as the high pressure
crests over the region. Winds will veer southeasterly Tuesday as a
low pressure system and attendant warm front approach the region
from the upper mississippi river valley. This system will bring
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms for the midweek
period.

Hydrology...

scattered to locally numerous showers, and possibly a thunderstorm,
will continue to be possible for much of today mainly north of the i-
69 corridor. Slow movement and training of the shower activity will
lead to locally heavy rainfall possibly in excess of an inch of
accumulation. The locally heavy rainfall will lead to the potential
for some poor drainage flooding, and possibly localized flash
flooding where the heaviest rainfall totals occur. No river flooding
is anticipated due to low water levels. South of the i-69 corridor,
scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will also be possible
with rainfall amounts generally under a quarter of an inch. Drier
weather will move in this evening and continue into Monday as high
pressure builds across the region. Rain and thunderstorm chances
return Tuesday and continuing into the midweek period as a low
pressure system approaches from the upper mississippi river valley.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 10 pm edt this
evening for lhz441>443.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Jvc
aviation... ..Irl
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Irl
hydrology... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi55 min NNE 15 G 17 60°F 1013.5 hPa
KP58 20 mi44 min NNE 11 57°F 1012.3 hPa57°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi55 min N 5.1 G 8.9 62°F 1013.5 hPa
45163 23 mi35 min NE 14 G 16 62°F 68°F2 ft
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi53 min N 12 G 18 55°F 1012.1 hPa55°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi35 min NE 11 G 13 63°F 1013.2 hPa (+2.4)
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 44 mi45 min NNE 12 G 12 53°F 49°F1 ft1012.7 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi39 minNE 5 G 1610.00 miLight Rain62°F61°F97%1012.9 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi44 minNNE 11 mi57°F57°F100%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE3CalmNE3NE6NE4NE5NE3E5NE4CalmCalmCalmN3N5N8
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2 days agoNE11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.