Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 7:51PM Friday March 22, 2019 7:54 AM EDT (11:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:56PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 402 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt this morning through Saturday morning...
Today..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming north to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Cloudy with a chance of light snow in the morning, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of light snow in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 30 knots until early morning. Mostly clear. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201903221500;;737258 FZUS53 KDTX 220805 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 402 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-221500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 221107
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
707 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Aviation
Gusty northwest winds around 25 knots today will advect colder air
into southeast michigan, helping to sustain lowVFR clouds through
the day. Could even be a couple snow showers around this morning,
but inherited tempo group is mainly to account for MVFR cigs. Quick
clearing is expected early this evening, with light winds and clear
skies overnight as high pressure builds into the western great
lakes.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high in ceilings AOB 5000 ft today.

* moderate in precip type being snow this morning.

* low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded today.

Prev discussion
Issued at 355 am edt Fri mar 22 2019
discussion...

exceptionally strong potential vorticity anomaly, complete with a
closed h5 525dam circulation, is dropping due southward through lake
superior this morning. This is on the heels of the strong vorticity
maximum that swung through the region some 24 hours ago. The close
proximity of the features never allowed a true warm sector to
develop and take root. As a result, southerly flow now in place will
remain soft and only skin deep. Plan view progs of system relative
isentropic ascent really tells the pertinent story with northwesterly
system relative flow in place above 875mb. Forcing for ascent will
now rely on brute strength of heart of differential cyclonic
vorticity advection. Best focus for this will occur directly over
eastern lower michigan between 09-15z with best 1000- 850mb fgen
circulation striping directly over the saginaw bay and northern thumb.

Regional mosaic has come to life here in the past hour, with z
increasing over the u.P. And through the straits. The snow showers
are in response to the DCVA acting upon a lake moisture contribution.

The previous discussion made note of steep lapse rates that will
exist through 6.5 kft agl and the -10c isotherm. Will maintain the
previous forecast calling for likely snow or rain snow mix this
morning over the northern cwa. Very little accumulation potential is
expected. With the magnitude of the DCVA will also continue a chance
for precipitation over most areas this morning.

The narrative today is also dictated by a strong degree of cold air
advection that will infiltrate the CWA after the noon hour. Gusty
northwest winds of up to 30 mph will result from deep mixing down to
the surface and surface dewpoints dropping sharply to around 20
degrees by late afternoon. This is expected to result in apparent
temperatures ranging in the upper teens to the upper 20s. As a
comparison, normal high temperatures for this part of march are 44
to 48 degrees. This really is a noteworthy midlevel cold pool.

Well organized upper level confluent flow with no warm advection
will result in building surface high pressure Friday night and
Saturday. Southeast michigan is forecasted to reside along the
fringe of the surface high which will result in a mixed westerly
gradient flow. High end signal exists for high column stability. Full
insolation will allow for temperatures to reach the low to middle
40s.

Shortwave over the central plains will meander eastward within the
blocked flow, maintaining enough integrity as it tracks into the
southern great lakes by Sunday evening. Zonal flow will lead to weak
baroclinic zone development immediately south of the state. This
will allow the shortwave to generate some modest frontal
forcing isentropic ascent over beginning late Sunday afternoon. An
interesting pattern evolution is forecasted to the north of the area.

Strong agreement exists in depicting a maximum in the longwave
ridge high geopotential heights migrating southeastward out of
central canada. A differential increase in heights results in a
strong positive anticyclonic flow tendency and a rapid stabilization
of the atmosphere immediately north of the ohio river valley
baroclinic zone. Net result is for best support for precipitation to
get squeezed south and east of the area by Monday. All signs point to
a longwave ridge building into the region which would bring quiet
and warming weather for the beginning to middle of next week.

Marine...

post frontal cold advection today will allow for deeper mixing with
northwest winds gusts to gales over much of lake huron. Otherwise,
small craft advisories are in effect for gusts around 30 knots.

The airmass looks to be just cold enough for freezing spray over the
open waters of lake huron as well. Winds look to be slowly
decreasing tonight as high pressure slides south through the western
great lakes and into the ohio valley on Saturday. This will allow
winds to shift to the southwest over the weekend, but wind speeds
will be much lighter with the warm advection pattern.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning until 11 pm edt this evening for lhz362-363-441>443-
462>464.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz422.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Saturday for lhz421.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Cb
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi66 min NW 16 G 22 35°F 1009.5 hPa
KP58 20 mi63 min NNW 12 G 21 35°F 1008.2 hPa30°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi74 min NNW 8.9 G 13 34°F 1009.1 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi36 min NNW 18 G 29 35°F 37°F1008 hPa30°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi54 min NNW 19 G 22 35°F 1008.5 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last
24hr
S2
NW1
NW4
N11
N7
N7
N6
G9
N8
N6
E3
W7
G11
SW6
G9
W6
G10
NW4
G7
W5
G9
SW4
W8
G11
W10
G13
W12
G16
W11
G14
W8
G13
NW8
G11
NW12
G15
NW13
G21
1 day
ago
SW10
G14
S10
G13
S12
G15
S14
G17
S12
G16
S13
G20
S13
G17
S12
G17
S12
G16
SW11
G16
SW8
G12
S10
SE11
S14
G19
S13
G17
S11
G14
S11
G14
S11
G16
S9
G12
S10
G13
S11
G14
SE9
S8
SE4
2 days
ago
SW5
W7
W8
W7
W8
G11
W9
G14
SW8
G12
W4
G7
SE6
G12
SE14
S12
G15
S10
S10
S7
S8
SW5
SW6
SW4
SW5
SW6
SW7
G10
S7
G10
S9
SW8
G11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi59 minNNW 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast34°F30°F87%1007.8 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi63 minNNW 12 G 21 mi35°F30°F82%1008.2 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last 24hrCalmNW5N6N6N4NW4NW5NW5W5W7W5W5W4NW3W4W6W6W7W9W6W7NW5NW8N11
1 day agoS8S10S10S12S9SW11SW11
G15
SW12SW13S13
G16
S10S7SE5SE8SE6SE7S6SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmE3Calm
2 days agoSW3W5W6W9W6W8W7W6W7W5S7CalmE3SE3SW3SW5SW6S3SW5SW4S6S8SW8S5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.