Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caseville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 5:01PM Sunday December 16, 2018 9:12 PM EST (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 1:37PMMoonset 12:57AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 342 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday morning through late Monday night...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Monday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the southwest in the afternoon. Partly cloudy early in the morning then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201812170415;;895461 FZUS53 KDTX 162042 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 342 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-170415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caseville, MI
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location: 44.03, -83.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 170003
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
703 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Aviation
Stubborn ifr lifr stratus and fog linger from fnt to mbs now that it
has survived the daytime peak heating cycle. At least it is apparent
that increasing southwest flow minimizes fog potential and carries
the stratus east of the terminal corridor by late evening. The
increasing southwest flow occurs ahead of the next cold front set to
move through lower michigan late tonight and Monday morning. Early
evening observations show the front moving into the northern great
lakes free of precipitation and with a minimal cloud footprint.

Borderline MVFRVFR clouds are expected to fill in along the front
enough to reach SE michigan, especially considering the influx of
boundary moisture provided by the lake aggregate. Northwest wind
gusting near 20 knots develops post front and deeper mixing allows
any MVFR ceiling to become scattered during Monday afternoon.

For dtw... Aviation concerns remain minimal as low clouds and fog
remain north of the terminal tonight. The next cold front arrives
Monday morning with a short period of MVFR clouds but no
precipitation.VFR and northwest wind gusting near 20 knots develop
Monday afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling below 5000 ft after 12z Monday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 313 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
discussion...

weak low-mid level ridging will govern conditions through the
evening period, as southeast michigan resides just downstream of
pending height falls emanating from a strong shortwave translating
across ontario. This environment defined by a stout inversion layer
carrying a base near 950 mb. Removal of the saturated conditions
beneath this layer under modest diurnal boundary layer mixing slowly
dislodging the fog stratus locally late this afternoon. There
remains the potential however for renewed expansion of this moisture
to commence this evening once nocturnal cooling takes hold. Recent hi
res model guidance suggests this moisture advection will tend to
remain more transient, as the low level gradient turns westerly.

Greatest potential for a period of stratus and or dense fog will
exist along north of i-69. Window for low cloud and fog closes once
the inbound cold front attendant to the expanding height falls lifts
across the area during the early morning hours. The lack of
meaningful large scale forcing or moisture depth will leave this
frontal passage dry and absent of anything more than some increase in
high cloud. Ensuing cold air advection emerging through the morning
will bring low temperatures down into the upper 20s for most
locations.

Deep layer post-frontal northwest flow in place Monday. Low level
thermal trough characterized by 850 mb temperatures of -6 to -10c
sweeps through midday, with the advective process waning quickly by
afternoon. This will leave a rather seasonable mid december
environment - highs of mid-upper 30s within a 15 mph northwest wind
and some degree of diurnal stratocu. Surface high anchored along the
interface of diminishing northwest flow and building heights across
the midwest will steadily take control Monday night into Tuesday.

This translates into a period of dry and stable conditions within
the background of strong mid level subsidence. Temperatures holding
right around average throughout the early week period.

Ridge of higher pressure will continue to bring dry weather to SE mi
as anticylonic flow around a surface high situated across the
western atlantic allows temperatures to rebound back into the 40s
for a high Wednesday. Thursday will remain mild with another round
of highs in the 40s, however, an advancing low pressure system will
bring unsettled weather to the area late in the day, with
precipitation likely Friday morning.

An upper-level trough will amplify across the ark-la-tex corridor as
an open wave develops into a closed low north of the gulf of mexico
throughout Thursday afternoon. A strengthening baroclinic zone and
jet streak will then develop across the southern portion of the ohio
valley, which will hold the bulk of precipitation south of michigan
for the day, however, weak left exit jet streak dynamics and weak pv
anomaly may aid in producing sporadic rain showers throughout the
afternoon. The highly dynamic low pressure system will then travel
northeast into pa ny late Thursday into Friday morning, where
isentropic lift will be maximized between Fri 00 - 12z, producing
likely precipitation chances Friday morning. Top-down methodology
and GEFS ensemble solutions are persistent with yesterday's
solutions, producing a cold rain to wintry mix at onset of event,
before transitioning to all rain by Friday afternoon. A transition
to snow will be possible late Friday into Saturday behind an
advancing cold front which may lead to some accumulation (focused
closer to the thumb), but given the stronger forcing is tied to the
rain and considering warmer ground conditions, will not enhance
wording on potential winter implications at this time. Stronger
pressure gradient tied to the low and an increase in CAA will bring
gusty conditions in addition to the possible transition to snow.

Also interesting to note, the gfs-fv3 model space keeps the bulk of
precipitation just east of michigan for this event, which is out of
line with the operational gfs, ecmwf, and gem, but something to keep
an eye on.

The cold front is expected to return seasonal temperatures to
michigan for the weekend as highs peak in the 30s and lows dip into
the 20s. Lack of significant forcing will keep conditions relatively
dry late Saturday and Sunday.

Marine...

an advancing cold front will veer winds from the southwest to the
northwest throughout Monday morning and will be tied to a stronger
pressure gradient, increasing wind speeds up to 25 - 30 mph across
lake huron. Limited instability will cap gusts at near-gales, with
the potential to see some isolated gale-force gusts through the mid
to late morning hours. As a result, small-craft advisories will be
in effect overnight and will persist throughout Monday for outer
saginaw bay south across the nearshore waters to port huron as
elevated waves build south. Surface high pressure will then build
east across the great lakes and will relax wind speeds and waves
throughout Tuesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 7 am Monday to 4 am est Tuesday for
lhz421-441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Mr am
marine... ... .Am
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi58 min S 4.1 G 23 31°F 1014.2 hPa
KP58 20 mi81 min SW 8.9 G 18 31°F 1013.6 hPa29°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi92 min SW 8.9 G 13 32°F 1013.9 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 31 mi54 min WSW 7 G 13 31°F 34°F1013.6 hPa29°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 33 mi72 min SW 16 G 17 32°F 1013.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huron County Memorial Airport, MI19 mi17 minSW 83.00 miFog/Mist32°F31°F99%1012.9 hPa
Port Hope, MI20 mi21 minSW 11 G 18 mi32°F30°F92%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from BAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4NE4NE4CalmNE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW5W6SW8W7SW7S5SW8SW6SW6SW9
1 day agoSW6SW8SW8W5CalmW3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE4CalmCalmNE3NE4N5NE5
2 days agoSE5S7S6SE3S6S6CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE5CalmS5SW4SW5W4W4SW4W5W5SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.