Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cape Vincent, NY
March 19, 2024 2:40 AM EDT (06:40 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:07 AM Sunset 7:18 PM Moonrise 12:36 PM Moonset 4:01 AM |
LOZ065 Expires:202309182000;;591889 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601
LOZ005
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 190603 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 203 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cold air will deepen across the region this week, with several passing surface troughs producing occasional rounds of snow showers, graupel, and lake effect snow through Thursday. The greatest snow accumulations will be found across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The snow will most readily stick from around sunset through mid morning each day, with some melting during the daylight hours due to the high March sun angle. Temperatures will run below average through the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Have significantly raised pops east of Lake Ontario where a broad area of light to occasionally moderate upslope snow has developed within the northwest flow. Additional snowfall amounts in this area through daybreak will be an inch or two...meanwhile negligible accumulations of light lake snow will be found southeast of Lake Erie.
A sub 100mb sfc low in the vcnty of Lake Superior at daybreak will slowly drift east during the course of the day
In the process
an elevated warm front will make its way across our forecast area along with a swath of deeper moisture. Frontogenetic lift associated with the elevated boundary should be enough to generate fairly widespread snow showers during the course of the day...esp east/northeast of the lakes where pure lake effect will give way to synoptic forcing and act as an enhancing feature due to H85 temps 'warming' to -8c.
This will effectively eliminate the lake induced instability.
Snowfall amounts throughout the region for the upcoming day will generally range from one to two inches...although higher amounts could be found near and south of the Tug Hill. Amounts will be most insignificant (an inch or less) over the Finger Lakes region.
Otherwise today will continue to feature below normal temperatures peaking in the low to mid 30s...while a modest 35 knot low level jet will support widespread wind gusts of at least 30 mph.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Upper level trough with cold air advection will remain through this period, generating lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. Diurnal effects of the higher March sun angle will limit snow totals through the daylight hours, with snow bands becoming disorganized and cellular.
Marginal temperatures aloft of -8 to -9C at 850 hPa Tuesday night will bring lake effect snow east of the Lakes. Snow around an inch or so east of Lake Erie, with initially deeper moisture over Lake Ontario leading to two to three inches of snow on the Tug Hill.
An mid level shortwave will pass across the region later Wednesday, with stronger cold air advection behind it. Scattered snow showers during the day Wednesday, in addition to localized lake effect snow, yet accumulations will range from a coating across the lower terrain, to an inch or two across higher terrain east of the Lakes.
The stronger cold air advection will briefly increase lake effect snow parameters east of the Lakes Wednesday night, however fleeting synoptic moisture will not allow for much band development. Could see 1-3 inches east of Lake Erie Wednesday night, and 2 to 4 inches east of Lake Ontario.
The diminishing moisture Thursday will allow for bands of snow southeast of the Lakes to fade to flurries through the afternoon hours.
It will be blustery at times this period, especially Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passing of the mid level shortwave. Gusts to 35 mph are likely near the Lakes. These winds could bring some limited blowing snow on the Tug Hill Wednesday night.
Below normal temperatures continue this period, especially on Thursday when despite increasing amounts of sunshine, daytime temperatures will struggle to rise above the freezing mark.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The upper level low will slowly exit our region to begin this period, but the jet stream will remain active. Friday a possible phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet may yield a developing synoptic system over our region. This system may develop over or to our east, and with the models struggling with phasing this winter will not place high confidence in the storm as of yet.
If the storm does develop, accumulating snow, especially Finger Lakes eastward is possible.
Lake response behind this system looks to be brief, possibly into Saturday as heights increase aloft through the weekend. Another storm system ejecting out of the Rockies late in the weekend may bring a mix of snow changing to rain Monday along a warm front.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Widespread cigs arnd 3500ft will accompany some light snow during the remaining pre dawn hours...although MVFR conditions in steadier lake snows will be found southeast of Lake Ontario...impacting sites such as KJHW.
Later today...an elevated frontal boundary will support deteriorating conditions with MVFR cigs and snow that will reduce vsbys to 2-4SM. This will be accompanied by winds that increase to include wind gusts of 30-35 knots.
The fairly widespread snow will taper off late today and early Tuesday evening while cigs should improve to VFR levels. The exception will likely be across the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario where MVFR cigs should persist.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Occasional lake effect snow showers with local/brief IFR conditions. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers and associated brief/local IFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for snow showers.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR with chances for snow showers.
MARINE
Deep cyclonic flow across the lakes will maintain SCA conditions across the nearshore waters through at least Tuesday.
Breezy WNW winds will freshen and back to the southwest Tuesday morning. Sustained winds will likely approach 30kts across the open waters of Lake Erie for a period on Tuesday.
Winds will shift westerly and briefly subside late Tuesday night, before strengthening behind a cold front on Wednesday. Winds will likely approach gale force on Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043>045.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 203 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Cold air will deepen across the region this week, with several passing surface troughs producing occasional rounds of snow showers, graupel, and lake effect snow through Thursday. The greatest snow accumulations will be found across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The snow will most readily stick from around sunset through mid morning each day, with some melting during the daylight hours due to the high March sun angle. Temperatures will run below average through the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Have significantly raised pops east of Lake Ontario where a broad area of light to occasionally moderate upslope snow has developed within the northwest flow. Additional snowfall amounts in this area through daybreak will be an inch or two...meanwhile negligible accumulations of light lake snow will be found southeast of Lake Erie.
A sub 100mb sfc low in the vcnty of Lake Superior at daybreak will slowly drift east during the course of the day
In the process
an elevated warm front will make its way across our forecast area along with a swath of deeper moisture. Frontogenetic lift associated with the elevated boundary should be enough to generate fairly widespread snow showers during the course of the day...esp east/northeast of the lakes where pure lake effect will give way to synoptic forcing and act as an enhancing feature due to H85 temps 'warming' to -8c.
This will effectively eliminate the lake induced instability.
Snowfall amounts throughout the region for the upcoming day will generally range from one to two inches...although higher amounts could be found near and south of the Tug Hill. Amounts will be most insignificant (an inch or less) over the Finger Lakes region.
Otherwise today will continue to feature below normal temperatures peaking in the low to mid 30s...while a modest 35 knot low level jet will support widespread wind gusts of at least 30 mph.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Upper level trough with cold air advection will remain through this period, generating lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. Diurnal effects of the higher March sun angle will limit snow totals through the daylight hours, with snow bands becoming disorganized and cellular.
Marginal temperatures aloft of -8 to -9C at 850 hPa Tuesday night will bring lake effect snow east of the Lakes. Snow around an inch or so east of Lake Erie, with initially deeper moisture over Lake Ontario leading to two to three inches of snow on the Tug Hill.
An mid level shortwave will pass across the region later Wednesday, with stronger cold air advection behind it. Scattered snow showers during the day Wednesday, in addition to localized lake effect snow, yet accumulations will range from a coating across the lower terrain, to an inch or two across higher terrain east of the Lakes.
The stronger cold air advection will briefly increase lake effect snow parameters east of the Lakes Wednesday night, however fleeting synoptic moisture will not allow for much band development. Could see 1-3 inches east of Lake Erie Wednesday night, and 2 to 4 inches east of Lake Ontario.
The diminishing moisture Thursday will allow for bands of snow southeast of the Lakes to fade to flurries through the afternoon hours.
It will be blustery at times this period, especially Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passing of the mid level shortwave. Gusts to 35 mph are likely near the Lakes. These winds could bring some limited blowing snow on the Tug Hill Wednesday night.
Below normal temperatures continue this period, especially on Thursday when despite increasing amounts of sunshine, daytime temperatures will struggle to rise above the freezing mark.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The upper level low will slowly exit our region to begin this period, but the jet stream will remain active. Friday a possible phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet may yield a developing synoptic system over our region. This system may develop over or to our east, and with the models struggling with phasing this winter will not place high confidence in the storm as of yet.
If the storm does develop, accumulating snow, especially Finger Lakes eastward is possible.
Lake response behind this system looks to be brief, possibly into Saturday as heights increase aloft through the weekend. Another storm system ejecting out of the Rockies late in the weekend may bring a mix of snow changing to rain Monday along a warm front.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Widespread cigs arnd 3500ft will accompany some light snow during the remaining pre dawn hours...although MVFR conditions in steadier lake snows will be found southeast of Lake Ontario...impacting sites such as KJHW.
Later today...an elevated frontal boundary will support deteriorating conditions with MVFR cigs and snow that will reduce vsbys to 2-4SM. This will be accompanied by winds that increase to include wind gusts of 30-35 knots.
The fairly widespread snow will taper off late today and early Tuesday evening while cigs should improve to VFR levels. The exception will likely be across the Srn Tier and east of Lk Ontario where MVFR cigs should persist.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Occasional lake effect snow showers with local/brief IFR conditions. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.
Thursday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers and associated brief/local IFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with increasing chances for snow showers.
Friday night through Saturday...MVFR with chances for snow showers.
MARINE
Deep cyclonic flow across the lakes will maintain SCA conditions across the nearshore waters through at least Tuesday.
Breezy WNW winds will freshen and back to the southwest Tuesday morning. Sustained winds will likely approach 30kts across the open waters of Lake Erie for a period on Tuesday.
Winds will shift westerly and briefly subside late Tuesday night, before strengthening behind a cold front on Wednesday. Winds will likely approach gale force on Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LOZ042>045-062>065.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043>045.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY | 45 mi | 53 min | 38°F | 29.74 | ||||
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 45 mi | 53 min | WNW 23G | 33°F | 29.75 | 23°F |
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