Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cape Vincent, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 8:06PM Friday August 18, 2017 6:06 PM EDT (22:06 UTC) Moonrise 1:38AMMoonset 4:50PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Lake Ontario Open Waters From Hamlin Beach To The Saint Lawrence River- 201 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day... Then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ065 Expires:201708182130;;581346 FZUS61 KBUF 181801 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 201 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 29.5 inch low will move from the eastern shores of Lake Superior today to west central Quebec Saturday, eventually exiting across northern Quebec Saturday night. A trailing cold front will cross the lake this evening. A 30.1 inch high will then build into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. LOZ063>065-182130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Vincent, NY
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location: 44.09, -76.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 181959
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
359 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A few showers or isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early this evening well inland of the lakes ahead of a
cool front that will slide across the region tonight. This will
usher in slightly cooler and drier conditions for Saturday, though
another passing upper level disturbance will bring a chance for more
showers and thunderstorms, again mainly inland from the lakes. High
pressure will bring fair weather Sunday and Monday before another
low pressure system brings showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Near term through Saturday
The lake shadow is in full force downwind of the lakes this
afternoon, with fair skies across the niagara frontier and jefferson
county. CU fields are more well-defined well inland from the lakes,
and it is still possible that we may see a few pop-up showers late
in the day, provided the cap in place can be broken. Otherwise,
things will remain relatively quiet as we move into the evening
hours, with the gusty winds diminishing around sunset, as the low
levels decouple.

It should be a quiet night across the area as a cold front slides
across the region. In the wake of the front, weak ridging will keep
things dry, though plenty of shallow moisture will be lingering, as
evidenced by the widespread cloud cover upstream across michigan,
and this means there will be clouds hanging around for a good
portion of the night. With dewpoints behind the front only falling
into the low 60s, look for lows in the low to mid 60s.

Saturday will look similar to today, albeit with more cloud cover
hanging around, as a robust upper level trough crosses the lower
great lakes. While areas northeast of the lakes should once again
remain lake shadowed, the synoptic lift from the trough should
encourage the formation of scattered showers and thunderstorms
inland from lake breeze boundaries Saturday afternoon. Any
convection should move rapidly off to the east late in the day,
carried by the brisk westerly upper level flow. Temperatures will be
a little more mild, as nominally cooler drier air will be in place
across the region, with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s.

Short term Saturday night through Tuesday night
On Saturday evening model consensus placed the axis of a 500 mb
trough across western new york, with trough exiting into new england
Saturday night. Meanwhile, a cold front will drop southward across
the area. The combination of the shortwave and front will result in
a few showers, which may also be enhanced modestly by lake
moisture instability and upsloping. Scattered showers south and east
of the lakes Saturday evening will shift to the eastern lake ontario
region late Saturday night before ending by daybreak Sunday.

Otherwise, lows Saturday night will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

The coolest temperatures will be across the southern tier valleys
where patchy river valley fog can be expected.

A broad surface high will build in across the upper ohio valley
Sunday and then gradually move to the mid-atlantic region through
Tuesday. This will bring an extended period of dry weather, with a
gradual warming trend through mid-week. Highs Sunday will be
seasonable, topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, then warming
well into the 80s in nearly all locations by Tuesday. High pressure
will also provide mainly clear skies Sunday into Monday, which
should provide favorable conditions for viewing the eclipse on
Monday.

A strong shortwave is forecast to dive into the great lakes region
with low pressure forecast to strengthen as it tracks from eastern
michigan to southern quebec Tuesday. Model guidance is in fairly
good agreement, with a brisk southwesterly flow likely to result in
lake shadows which will keep much of the daytime hours dry. A strong
associated cold front will approach late Tuesday afternoon and move
across the region Tuesday night. A significant line of showers and
thunderstorms will develop ahead of this front and move across the
area Tuesday night. Although a ways off, there is a risk of strong
to severe thunderstorms with strong wind profiles supportive of
damaging wind gusts. Severe weather potential is still uncertain,
and may change based on the timing of the front.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
Less humid conditions are expected work into the region in wake of
Tuesday nights cold front, as high pressure builds down from
southern central canada into the great lakes region. Although
conditions will trend drier during the period it will be
noticeable cooler with temperatures averaging some 5 to 10
degrees cooler than normal, with high temperatures both Thursday
and Friday in the 60s to lower 70s.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions prevail this afternoon, with breezy SW winds gusting
25-30 kts downwind of the lakes, preserving clear skies across the
niagara frontier and at kart.VFR conditions will prevail this
evening, with diminishing chances for showers late in the day across
the western finger lakes. Otherwise, look for gradually lowering
cigs overnight as a cold front slides across the region and low-
level moisture to the west moves into the forecast area, with MVFR
cigs developing across some areas, with potential ifr CIGS in the
southern tier.

An upper level disturbance crossing the region on Saturday will
bring a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly inland
of the lakes. Otherwise, like today, CIGS will improve through the
morning hours, with decks scattering out downwind of the lakes,
thanks to lake shadowing. Southwest winds should gust to around 15-
20kt in the afternoon, though not much higher as upper level flow
will be weaker than today.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR
Sunday and Monday...VFR except for late night and early morning
valley fog with local ifr.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the day.

Tuesday night... MVFR ifr, with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers.

Marine
Brisk southwesterly flow will maintain small craft advisory
conditions on the east end of lake erie thorugh this evening, though
winds should relax overnight as a cold front crosses the area.

Southwest winds will freshen once again Saturday afternoon, however
they should fall shy of advisory levels, as supporting upper level
winds will not be as strong.

High pressure will move across the lakes Saturday night into Sunday,
resulting in more favorable boating conditions for the second half
of the weekend into Monday. Southwesterly winds will freshen once
more Tuesday night, ahead of another approaching low pressure system.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Beach hazards statement until 11 pm edt this evening for
nyz010-019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Saturday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for
lez020.

Synopsis... Wood
near term... Wood
short term... Apffel
long term... Tma
aviation... Wood
marine... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 23 mi66 min WSW 7.8 G 14 77°F 73°F1 ft1005.1 hPa (-0.7)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 45 mi48 min WNW 7 G 8.9 81°F 1005.3 hPa69°F
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 45 mi48 min 74°F1004.5 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 49 mi76 min W 16 G 19 77°F 74°F1 ft1004.9 hPa (-0.8)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi66 min WSW 15 G 23 83°F 1006.4 hPa (-0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 74 mi48 min 83°F 1005.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY38 mi70 minSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds83°F66°F59%1004.3 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3NE4E4E4SE3SE8S8S6
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1 day agoN4CalmCalmSE3SE4CalmCalmCalmE3E4E3E3E3CalmCalm3E3Calm4CalmCalmE4W3Calm
2 days agoW5SW4S5S4CalmNE3CalmN3CalmNE5NE8NE6NE6NE9NE10N9N9NE8N5N8NE6N84N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.