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LOZ065 Expires:202309182000;;591889 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
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lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601

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FXUS61 KBUF 040044 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 844 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weakening cold front will bring some showers to parts of the region this evening into tonight. Shower chances steadily decrease later tonight into Saturday with just scattered showers remaining, and some dry time built in. Another slow moving cold front will pass across the area Saturday night through Sunday bringing the next round of more widespread showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. High pressure then returns Monday, allowing for a dry start to the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A weakening occluded front will slowly work across far western New York this evening into tonight. This boundary will bring some light rain showers to the area, with no more than a few hundredths at best over any given location. As this front progresses east it will begin to fall apart, but there will still be some showers possible for some locales (east of Lake Ontario) overnight
Otherwise
it will be mild with lows mainly in the 50s.

With very little forcing in place for Saturday, expecting just scattered showers, especially during the morning hours with a good deal of dry time built in through the day. Next stronger cold front will approach from the west late Saturday, while next wave moves north from the Ohio Valley. This will help to displace the upper level ridge east over New England, thus opening the door for the next surge of moisture and lift to move over the area with chances for showers increasing from south to north late in the day into the evening. Highs will be mainly in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The mid-level ridge axis over the forecast area through Saturday afternoon will push east toward New England Saturday night. In its wake, a shortwave trough will track northeast out of the OH/TN Valleys toward WNY. As the trough approaches, shower coverage will increase significantly from south to north through the later portion of Saturday evening and overnight. An influx of moisture with the trough will also help showers expand over the region. There still remains some uncertainty with track of shortwave trough and moisture over the forecast area with some models placing the higher rainfall amounts over WNY and other guidance more to the east toward CNY.

An incoming cold front on Sunday morning will increase forcing over the area, prolonging and expanding the potential for showers through at least the afternoon hours. Still uncertainty with how quickly the cold front tracks through the region among guidance as well with some guidance prolonging the showers through most of the day and into the evening on Sunday. Overall though the later portion of Saturday evening through at least the early afternoon on Sunday looks to be soggy for most of the forecast area. The more organized showers on Sunday should be mainly across the eastern third of the area by the late afternoon, with some lingering/scattered showers across the rest of the area.

With the large scale trough just north of the region still, along with lingering synoptic moisture, scattered showers will linger through most of Sunday night. Drier air moving into the area along a zonal flow will start to scatter out any remaining showers from west to east through the late night.

Rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch to half an inch is expected, with some higher amounts possible as well. Current thinking is the higher qpf amounts will be along the south shore of Lake Ontario east to the north country. Still plenty of uncertainty with higher qpf placement among guidance still.

A ridge building into the region will result in drier weather for Monday through Monday night across the entire area. Clearing skies on Monday will result in increasing sunshine from northwest to southeast through the day. Clouds will linger the longest near the NY/PA line as a disturbance tracks south of the area.

Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low 50s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 60s for the lower elevations south of Lake Ontario. For Monday, temperatures warm to the mid 60s to mid 70s from the higher terrain to lower elevations respectively.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A sprawling mid and upper level low will start out this period over the northern Rockies and Upper Plains states on Tuesday...then will slowly drift eastward across the northern half of the CONUS through the remainder of the work week
This being said
the medium range guidance continues to exhibit considerable differences in the strength and rate of eastward progression of this low...and consequently also in the strength/timing of a number of shortwave impulses ejecting eastward from this system and across our region.

With the above in mind...forecast confidence in associated precipitation potential/timing remains fairly low particularly from about Wednesday onward...and as such have undercut blended guidance a bit in an attempt to better reflect this uncertainty. In general this system should bring more unsettled weather with frequent opportunities for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms during the middle and latter portions of next week...though likely also with some drier periods interspersed.

As for temperatures...these will continue to average some 5-10 degrees above normal through this period.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A weak occluded front will work across the region this evening bringing lowering VFR Cigs and showers across far western terminals.

Tonight...flight conditions will slowly deteriorate with MVFR CIGS developing across the Southern Tier (KJHW), then advancing northward across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG). Mainly VFR conditions expected to continue from the Genesee Valley eastward to include KROC and KART.

Saturday...some scattered light showers expected with MVFR CIGS continuing across the Southern Tier (KJHW). KBUF/KIAG should improve to VFR by late morning/midday, with VFR flight conditions expected to continue from KROC east.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected to persist into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Expect this to bring some choppy waters at times, however conditions will remain below headline criteria, especially with an offshore flow developing tonight then persisting through the weekend, keeping the highest waves over Canadian waters for Saturday and Sunday. While quiet weather continues for the end of the work week, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight through Sunday. High pressure will build across the area for the start of the new work week providing mainly gentle breezes with no more than some light chop expected through Tuesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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