Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Cape Vincent, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:37PM Saturday November 18, 2017 5:24 AM EST (10:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:56AMMoonset 5:12PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Lake Ontario Open Waters From Hamlin Beach To The Saint Lawrence River- 642 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
.gale watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 35 knot gales overnight. Rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday..West gales to 40 knots becoming northwest. Snow and rain in the morning, then lake effect snow in the afternoon. Waves 11 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest gales to 35 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 10 to 14 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Lake effect snow with lake effect rain likely during the day, then a chance of rain Monday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
LOZ065 Expires:201711180415;;566356 FZUS61 KBUF 172342 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 642 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 30.1 inch high will move east across New England tonight, while a broad 29.4 inch low will become organized over the central plains. The low will deepen to 29.1 inches on Saturday while advancing across the Mid West to Lake Erie. The storm will then track across the lake Saturday night while further deepening to 28.9 inches. As the deep storm exits across the Saint lawrence Valley on Sunday, expansive high pressure will build across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The large high will cross the southern states on Monday. LOZ063>065-180415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Vincent, NY
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location: 44.09, -76.72     debug

Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 180905
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
405 am est Sat nov 18 2017

A strengthening storm system approaching from the mid western states
will generate occasional rain across our region today... Then a
strong cold front will plow across the lower great lakes to produce
mixed precipitation tonight. Gusty winds in the wake of the powerful
front will introduce a notably colder airmass into the area for the
second half of the weekend. This december like airmass will generate
accumulating snows southeast of both lakes Sunday into Monday.

Near term through tonight
As promised for nearly a week now... It will be quite unsettled over
our region today as a a complex storm system will approach our
region from the mid west. The system will be responsible for two
distinct rain events... Some gusty winds... And eventually some
accumulating lake snows for sites southeast of both lakes.

A composite of regional radars depicts a swath of moderately heavy
rain that at 0730z extended from southern ontario and central lake
erie to northeast ohio. This area of precipitation is being
supported by a pair of h25 jets... Whose couplet will cross our
forecast area during the morning hours. While there will be some
lift added from the semblance of a weak initial warm front... The
heavy lifting will definitely be done from above... As is nicely
depicted from most bufkit displays of omega contours.

The rain will then end rather quickly from west to east during the
mid and late morning... And this will leave a lot of 'dead' clouds
with little in the way of rain during the midday and early
afternoon. Then as we progress through the afternoon... The second
round of rain will take aim on the region as the deepening cyclone
will make its way to the northeast across lake erie. The impetus for
this round of rain will be even stronger jet induced lift brought
about in the left front entrance region of a 140kt h25 jet over the
lower ohio and tennessee valleys. In fact... The rain will probably
be heaviest with this particular batch for the late afternoon and
early evening. Rainfall amounts during the daylight hours will
range from roughly three quarters of an inch over the southern tier
to under a quarter inch over the north country. A southerly flow
will factor into this... Providing a little orographic enhancement
for the southern tier... And a general 25 percent reduction from
downsloping along a 25 mile swath straddling the new york state
thruway between buffalo and the montezuma wildlife refuge west of
syracuse. This same effect will be found on opposing sides of the
tug hill plateau.

Meanwhile... Much milder air will pour northward across the region in
the wake of the initial 'warm front'. This will allow temperatures to
climb to within a few degrees of 50 today across the western
counties... With readings likely stalling in the 40s for the eastern
lake ontario region. The warmth will be immediately proceeded by
some gusty winds... Mainly over the higher terrain (abv 1500 ft)
where winds could gust to 35 mph.

Tonight... The deep cyclone will move from southernmost ontario and
the niagara frontier to the st lawrence valley. This forecast track
is too close to our forecast area to be a legitimate high wind
threat... Although it will certainly become windy in its wake. The
strongest winds tonight will come after midnight... And will be
focused across the immediate lake shows and for the higher
elevations where winds could gust to 45 mph.

Along with the freshening winds overnight... Strong h925-70
frontogentic forcing along and behind a powerful cold front will
lead to more precipitation. All of this will be in the form of rain
through midnight... Then as colder air deepens in the wake of the
cold front... The rain will taper off as a mix of light rain and wet
snow. This change over will be a couple hours slower than earlier
forecasts... But there could still be enough snow for some of the
higher elevations to pick up a light coating by daybreak. This will
mainly be the case across the southern tier where the synoptic
driven precipitation will transition to lake effect by morning. Also
working against more significant accumulations will be temperatures
that are forecast to only drop to the low to mid 30s for the high
spots... And the mid to upper 30s across the lake plains.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday night
By the start of Sunday morning... Deep low pressure will be
situated just north of the new york-quebec border... With this
feature sliding further down the saint lawrence valley during
the course of the day. Consequently... Lingering synoptically-
driven rain across the eastern finger lakes and north country
(with snow mixed in across the higher terrain) at the start of
the day will steadily wind down from west to east during Sunday

In the wake of the low... A cyclonic flow of much colder air will
overspread the region Sunday... Then will remain in place through
Sunday night and Monday morning... Before giving way to building
ridging and a corresponding warm advection regime Monday afternoon
and Monday night. With lake-deltat values more than favorable for
a lake response and inversion heights looking to be at respectable
levels at points... This will set the stage for a round of lake
effect snows to the southeast of both lakes in a predominantly
west-northwest flow regime. The above said... Synoptic-scale
moisture levels inversion heights will also be a limiting factor
at points... As will a relative lack of consistent strong lift
within the prime dendritic snow growth zone. Putting all of this
together... It currently still appears that advisory-type snows
will be the most likely outcome within the favored lake effect

Looking more closely at the forecast details... Off lake erie the
incoming colder airmass will already be cold enough to support
a lake response by the start of Sunday morning... With marginal
temperature profiles supporting a mix of rain and wet snow
initially... Before steady cold air advection drives a changeover
to predominantly snow as the day progresses. While the lake effect
activity will be relatively weak light in nature Sunday morning...

it should ramp up to moderate levels for Sunday afternoon and
evening as an synoptic-scale moisture improves... An upstream
connection develops to lake huron and inversion heights temporarily
climb to around 8-9 kft. After that time... Light to occasionally
moderate lake snows will then continue through the balance of
Sunday night and into Monday morning on gradually backing low
level flow... Before rapidly weakening Monday afternoon as inversion
heights crash and supporting background moisture diminishes. Expect
just some remnant flurries to possibly reach the niagara frontier
as the flow backs further to west-southwesterly early Monday
evening... Before ending altogether by midnight.

Meanwhile off lake ontario... The developing lake effect activity
will likely remain considerably hampered (and thus lighter in nature)
through most if not all of Sunday by the more limited synoptic-scale
moisture that will be in place over that region for the latter two
thirds of the day... As well as somewhat lower inversion heights.

This will then change late Sunday and Sunday night as synoptic-scale
moisture improves... An upstream connection develops to georgian bay...

and inversion heights climb to more favorable levels... All of which
should allow for a more cohesive band of moderate snow to develop
east-southeast of the lake... Where it will continue through Monday
morning. After that time... The band will gradually lift north toward
the tug hill while tending to weaken through the rest of Monday as
the upstream connection is lost and background moisture fades again...

before lifting further north to the watertown area and falling apart
Monday night as the flow backs to southwesterly and inversion heights
rapidly crash.

Again... Snowfall totals from this event look to primarily be in the
advisory range off both lakes... With current forecast projections
supporting the potential for a general 3-6" per 12 hours while the
lake snows are at their peak... Which will not last much more than
that off either lake. Given this... Have elected to hold off on
issuing any winter weather headlines for at least one more forecast
cycle. While some lower-end warning-criteria snows cannot be completely
ruled out southeast of lake ontario given the potential upstream
connection to georgian bay... Such amounts remain rather questionable
at the present time.

Outside of the lingering synoptic-scale precipitation Sunday morning
and the aforementioned lake snows... The Sunday-Monday night period
will feature colder temperatures and some scattered snow showers
at times... With rather windy conditions on Sunday diminishing to
more moderate levels Sunday night and Monday.

Taking a quick gander at the last third of this period... Tuesday
still looks to be mainly dry and breezy to windy again out ahead
of an approaching cold front... While the strong warm advective
regime out ahead of the front also temporarily drives temperatures
back to above average levels in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The front
itself will then ease its way across our region Tuesday night...

with scattered rain showers mixing with changing over to snow
as colder air returns in the wake of the boundary.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
On Wednesday a colder west-northwesterly flow will again be in place
across our region... However the colder airmass also appears to be
rather dry. This should tend to keep any lake response downwind of
the lakes fairly limited in scope... With a return to largely dry
weather then more likely for Wednesday night and thanksgiving day
as surface-based ridging builds across the region..

Another frontal boundary will likely dip southward from canada
Friday... Maintain chances for snow, especially across lake ontario
and points eastward which at this time will be closer to the frontal

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
WhileVFR conditions will remain intact across all of western and
north central new york through daybreak... An approaching storm
system over the mid western states will result in deteriorating
conditons after 10z with the leading edge of rain making it into the
far western counties by daybreak.

The concern through daybreak though will be low level wind shear
over the western counties... Including the kbuf... Kiag... Kjhw and
kroc TAF sites. While sfc winds will be relatively light from the
southeast... Winds as low as 1500 ft will be from the south-southwest
at 40 to 45 knots.

After daybreak... A swath of rain will cross our region ahead of a
warm front. CIGS will gradually drop to MVFR levels regionwide...

with ifr CIGS expected over the southern tier and portions of the
finger lakes region. This would mainly impact sites such as kjhw and

Ifr CIGS are forecast to become a little more widespread tonight...

otherwise MVFR CIGS with rain can be anticipated. The rain will
taper off to mixed rain and snow showers late... Except east of lake
erie where the mixed precipitation will transition to steadier lake


Sunday-Monday... Lake effect sn, ifr SE of lakes, otherwiseVFR MVFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR. Wednesday... Rain and snow showers with a
chance of MVFR ifr.

A deepening storm system over the mid western states will approach
the lower great lakes today... And this will result in freshening
southerly winds. While winds will approach small craft advisory
criteria... The highest waves will be directed into canadian waters.

The real problem during this forecast package will be the strong
winds that will follow the strengthening storm system as it exits to
our north and east late tonight and Sunday. Winds veering to the
west and northwest in the wake of the storm will increase to gale
force late tonight through Sunday. Gale warnings will remain in

These very strong winds will only marginally subside Sunday night
and Monday... As expansive high pressure over the southern states
will make its way off the southeast coast.

Tides coastal flooding
Developing very strong onshore winds will build significant wave
action from late tonight into Sunday night along the lake
ontario shoreline. The combination of already higher lake levels
and continued wave action will result in increased shoreline
erosion, especially where the lakeshore is already unstable from
erosion earlier in the year.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from late tonight through late Sunday
night for nyz001>007.

Marine... Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est Sunday for

Gale warning from 1 am to 10 pm est Sunday for

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Rsh
short term... Jjr
long term... Jjr thomas
aviation... Rsh
marine... Rsh
tides coastal flooding... Tma

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 23 mi85 min SE 18 G 21 40°F 51°F3 ft1008.6 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 49 mi95 min SE 18 G 21 41°F 48°F3 ft1008 hPa (-4.3)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi85 min SE 8 G 9.9 36°F 1008.8 hPa (-3.4)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY38 mi29 minENE 410.00 miFair29°F23°F78%1008.9 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW11NW10NW6NW9W7W4W9SW3W8W6W6CalmCalmSE4S4CalmSE3E4E3E3E5E5NE4E4
1 day agoS14
2 days agoE4E4E3NE3SE5SE6S7SE7S7SE6SE4E5E3E5SE6S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.