Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:32 AM   Moonset 8:41 AM

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LOZ065 Expires:202309182000;;855567 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 290607 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 207 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak frontal boundary will stall over our area today, with afternoon temperatures ranging from the lower 60s north of the boundary to the lower 80s across the Southern Tier. While there can be an afternoon shower or thunderstorm well south of Buffalo and Rochester, most areas will be rain free. Temperatures this week will average well above normal, especially Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early this morning, a warm frontal segment will lift across southern Ontario, which may spark a few shower across our area as it passes by. Meanwhile a frontal boundary at the surface will sag southward roughly to I-90 from Buffalo to Syracuse. This will result in some fog in parts of Western NY.

The frontal boundary will remain stalled today, resulting in a sharp temperature gradient across our region. Temperatures will range from the lower 60s in the Thousand Islands region and along the south shores of Lake Ontario to the lower 80s across the Southern Tier. This frontal boundary will meander a bit, with Buffalo likely to be notably warmer than Rochester today.

Low level convergence and instability near or just south of the boundary will result in scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the Western Southern Tier and Upper Genesee River Valley. Ridging aloft will limit the areal coverage.

Tonight, a negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and southern Ontario. While this in turn will push our stalled frontal boundary out of our region, we will have to turn our attention to the showers and thunderstorms that will approach our region from the northwest. Most of this activity should hold off until after midnight, then chances for showers will increase, especially across the Eastern Lake Ontario Region and Niagara Frontier.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper level ridge across the Northeast region early Tuesday will move off the east coast through the afternoon. A cold front will extend from Georgian Bay to central Lake Erie and into central Ohio Tuesday morning. Most of the forecast area will be in the warm sector in the morning, with the exception of the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley where they remain on the cool side of a warm front.
The combination of deep moisture and an approaching cold front increases confidence that showers will be entering far western NY around daybreak Tuesday. The risk for lightning is low, however not non-zero. There is good agreement that the cold front will move across the forecast area Tuesday, however confidence is medium that showers will stay intact and move across the entire forecast area through Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across interior portions of the forecast area where daytime heating will increase the probability of showers and a few thunderstorms. Locations across the Niagara Frontier may only see showers Tuesday morning and they stay dry the rest of the day.
The risk for strong to severe storms is low due to the timing of the front Tuesday. Most of the forecast area will be behind the front by Tuesday afternoon and result in instability further east. Any thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rainfall due to anomalously high PWATS for late April. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to low 70s across western portions of the forecast area to the mid to upper 70s across the Finger Lakes region.

The front will move east of the forecast area Tuesday night. Showers will diminish across north central NY Tuesday evening. Mostly dry weather expected across western NY overnight. Lows will fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Surface high pressure will move into the region Wednesday through Thursday and dry weather is expected. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the 70s both days, cooler conditions expected near the lakeshores.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Largely dry weather Thursday night will encompass much of the forecast area overnight
However
we will need too keep an eye on a warm frontal boundary extending east from a low pressure system tracking across the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. This would mainly be for the North Country where we have kept low end PoPs (20% or less) for a shower or stray thunderstorm
After that
increasing moisture will be drawn up ahead of an approaching cold front. This will once again bring increasing chances for showers by Friday evening which potentially lasts into the day Saturday. That said...there remains a bit of uncertainty regarding how fast this whole system (cold front) clears the eastern Great Lakes. Given that...have held onto low end chances for additional showers on Saturday but it could end up being dry.

High pressure briefly builds into the Lower Lakes Saturday night which will bring any remaining showers to and end. Dry weather will likely last through much of the day Sunday but there is a moisture starved cold front that approaches the region. We could see some showers towards the end of the day but chances are low.

Overall...above normal temperatures will more than likely persist through this entire period.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The main concern for the 06Z TAFS will be a frontal boundary which will sag southward across Western NY overnight. This boundary will produce an area of LIFR cigs and fog which will impact the KIAG/KBUF/KROC TAF sites overnight. Increasing winds behind the front should allow for improving conditions at KART while KJHW is likely to remain south of the influence of the boundary. A stray shower is possible across Western NY through 11Z.

Ceilings and visibility will improve to MVFR in the 13-16Z timeframe, and the to VFR at most locations during the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon, but these will be in the Upper Genesee Valley and unlikely to impact any TAF sites.

Showers will approach the area from the west tonight, with increasing chances for rain and lowering cigs from northwest to southeast late tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR deteriorating to IFR/MVFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Increasing northeast winds will result in choppy conditions along the central and western south shores of Lake Ontario today.
This will likely result in small craft conditions on the central and western waters of Lake Ontario. Otherwise no significant winds or waves are expected throughout the week...with just periodic showers or thunderstorms a few days.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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