Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cape Vincent, NY
May 17, 2024 2:55 AM EDT (06:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:34 AM Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 1:40 PM Moonset 2:08 AM |
LOZ065 Expires:202309182000;;591889 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601
LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 170652 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 252 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A poorly organized cold front will bring more coverage area to showers for the Lower Great Lakes region Friday and Friday night, with a few rumbles of thunder also possible. Showers may linger Saturday before drier air builds in from the north and returns partly sunny skies.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The next system will be approaching our region overnight. Winds will veer to southeasterly through the night. Just a 20 knot LLJ so downslope wind gusts will be minor. While the cold front with this next system is ill defined at times, looking in the mid levels a distinct 700/500 hPa shortwave trough will carry northeastward from the Ohio Valley. Increase in moisture and lift ahead of this shortwave will bring the first chances for showers to far western NY around late morning to midday Friday.
As this shortwave moves over our region Friday, a band of showers with embedded thunder will slowly move from west to east across western NY Friday afternoon. Better instability remains across WNY, but better lapse rates quickly move towards the east. Will carry a chance for thunderstorms, with likely convection across WNY Friday moving toward the eastern Lake Ontario as it weakens Friday evening.
As daytime instability wanes, the threat for thunder will also diminish, though lingering troughiness aloft will maintain chances for showers through Friday night with just the chance of a rumble of thunder.
Highest rainfall totals Friday through Friday night will be across areas from the Genesee Valley west where basin average rainfall will average one half to three quarters of an inch south of Lake Ontario, with localized higher amounts within any areas of embedded convection. Much lower amounts east of the Genesee Valley with a tenth to quarter of an inch is expected.
Highs on Friday will remain above normal in the low to mid 70s. Lows Friday night will be a few degrees higher than tonight, due to lingering cloudiness and southerly flow firmly entrenched across our region.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A mid level ridge will begin to increase in strength on Saturday, but before it does, a few showers are likely to linger behind the recent passage of a mid level shortwave, especially towards the State line. A few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE across SW NYS will aid in shower formation.
If clearing of the sky over Lake Ontario develops, and a lake breeze boundary forms, could also see a few showers forming south of the Lake, in convergence with a general light southeast synoptic flow.
Drier airmass from the north will bring partial clearing through the afternoon. This drying trend from the north will bring a dry night Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A low pressure system will start this period near the Carolina coastline, with an upper level ridge building northeastward across our region. Subsidence from this ridge should keep the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe dry, with perhaps just an isolated shower on a lake breeze boundary.
The southwesterly flow will steadily increase temperatures aloft at 850 hPa, such that at the surface most areas will see day to day warming of a degree or two. Could see a fair amount of temperatures in the low to mid 80s in the traditional warmer spots of our region before clouds begin to thicken ahead of the next system Tuesday.
A more vigorous shortwave trough will drop across the Plains Tuesday. The 12Z deterministic models display a fair amount of agreement with this shortwave, with a line of showers and thunderstorms passing across our region Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS bring a decent LLJ near our region, which depending upon timing of the cold front, could allow for taller updrafts and potential gustier winds at the surface.
Will keep Tuesday night on the warm side of guidance with the southerly flow and increasing clouds. Could see a few temperatures in the upper 70s again east of Lake Ontario before the cold front passage Wednesday.
Cooler behind the front Thursday. A trailing secondary trough may bring a shower or two to areas east of Lake Ontario Thursday, otherwise WNY should be dry with dewpoints returning back into the 50s.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Dewpoints will be a tad lower overnight than last night, along with a wind shift from light northeasterly to light southeasterly. This change in wind direction is significant as it will take the moist NE upslope flow off Lake Ontario out of the game, which will result in much less fog overnight. That said, conditions will be conducive for valley fog formation across the Southern Tier (KJHW) and in the Black River basin with localized IFR through the first part of Friday morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR and dry weather overnight.
Friday, a weak cold front and mid level shortwave will move into the region with deteriorating conditions for the second half of the day into the evening. Mainly VFR flight conditions are expected to hold on through at least midday with thickening and lowering mid level decks through the morning hours in advance of the approaching system. Showers and associated MVFR CIGS will move into the western Southern Tier (KJHW) early to mid afternoon, then spread northeast across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) mid to late afternoon, and eventually into the Genesee Valley (KROC) by late afternoon/early evening. IFR CIGS then expected to develop across the western Southern Tier (KJHW) late afternoon/ early evening, then into Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) early evening, and eventually into the Genesee Valley (KROC) by late evening. Meanwhile, a few showers may make it into the eastern Lake Ontario region (KART) by late in day into the evening hours with associated low VFR CIGS.
MVFR/IFR VSBY will also be possible within any heavier convection/ thunderstorms across areas south of Lake Ontario Friday afternoon/evening.
Outlook...
Friday night...A chance for showers with patchy fog.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with a chance for showers.
Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. An isolated shower Tuesday on Lake Erie lake breeze.
MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will continue general light winds through the remainder of the work week. A light offshore southeasterly flow overnight will increase some on Friday as a weak cold front slowly crosses the Lake. Following the passage of the weak cold front winds are not expected to increase much, and in fact remain light through Tuesday morning. The next system of note will be a cold front Wednesday, one that has a bit more structure, and a deeper surface low...with the increasing pressure gradient likely to bring a bit more in the way of wind and waves to the Lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 252 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A poorly organized cold front will bring more coverage area to showers for the Lower Great Lakes region Friday and Friday night, with a few rumbles of thunder also possible. Showers may linger Saturday before drier air builds in from the north and returns partly sunny skies.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The next system will be approaching our region overnight. Winds will veer to southeasterly through the night. Just a 20 knot LLJ so downslope wind gusts will be minor. While the cold front with this next system is ill defined at times, looking in the mid levels a distinct 700/500 hPa shortwave trough will carry northeastward from the Ohio Valley. Increase in moisture and lift ahead of this shortwave will bring the first chances for showers to far western NY around late morning to midday Friday.
As this shortwave moves over our region Friday, a band of showers with embedded thunder will slowly move from west to east across western NY Friday afternoon. Better instability remains across WNY, but better lapse rates quickly move towards the east. Will carry a chance for thunderstorms, with likely convection across WNY Friday moving toward the eastern Lake Ontario as it weakens Friday evening.
As daytime instability wanes, the threat for thunder will also diminish, though lingering troughiness aloft will maintain chances for showers through Friday night with just the chance of a rumble of thunder.
Highest rainfall totals Friday through Friday night will be across areas from the Genesee Valley west where basin average rainfall will average one half to three quarters of an inch south of Lake Ontario, with localized higher amounts within any areas of embedded convection. Much lower amounts east of the Genesee Valley with a tenth to quarter of an inch is expected.
Highs on Friday will remain above normal in the low to mid 70s. Lows Friday night will be a few degrees higher than tonight, due to lingering cloudiness and southerly flow firmly entrenched across our region.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A mid level ridge will begin to increase in strength on Saturday, but before it does, a few showers are likely to linger behind the recent passage of a mid level shortwave, especially towards the State line. A few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE across SW NYS will aid in shower formation.
If clearing of the sky over Lake Ontario develops, and a lake breeze boundary forms, could also see a few showers forming south of the Lake, in convergence with a general light southeast synoptic flow.
Drier airmass from the north will bring partial clearing through the afternoon. This drying trend from the north will bring a dry night Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A low pressure system will start this period near the Carolina coastline, with an upper level ridge building northeastward across our region. Subsidence from this ridge should keep the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe dry, with perhaps just an isolated shower on a lake breeze boundary.
The southwesterly flow will steadily increase temperatures aloft at 850 hPa, such that at the surface most areas will see day to day warming of a degree or two. Could see a fair amount of temperatures in the low to mid 80s in the traditional warmer spots of our region before clouds begin to thicken ahead of the next system Tuesday.
A more vigorous shortwave trough will drop across the Plains Tuesday. The 12Z deterministic models display a fair amount of agreement with this shortwave, with a line of showers and thunderstorms passing across our region Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS bring a decent LLJ near our region, which depending upon timing of the cold front, could allow for taller updrafts and potential gustier winds at the surface.
Will keep Tuesday night on the warm side of guidance with the southerly flow and increasing clouds. Could see a few temperatures in the upper 70s again east of Lake Ontario before the cold front passage Wednesday.
Cooler behind the front Thursday. A trailing secondary trough may bring a shower or two to areas east of Lake Ontario Thursday, otherwise WNY should be dry with dewpoints returning back into the 50s.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Dewpoints will be a tad lower overnight than last night, along with a wind shift from light northeasterly to light southeasterly. This change in wind direction is significant as it will take the moist NE upslope flow off Lake Ontario out of the game, which will result in much less fog overnight. That said, conditions will be conducive for valley fog formation across the Southern Tier (KJHW) and in the Black River basin with localized IFR through the first part of Friday morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR and dry weather overnight.
Friday, a weak cold front and mid level shortwave will move into the region with deteriorating conditions for the second half of the day into the evening. Mainly VFR flight conditions are expected to hold on through at least midday with thickening and lowering mid level decks through the morning hours in advance of the approaching system. Showers and associated MVFR CIGS will move into the western Southern Tier (KJHW) early to mid afternoon, then spread northeast across the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) mid to late afternoon, and eventually into the Genesee Valley (KROC) by late afternoon/early evening. IFR CIGS then expected to develop across the western Southern Tier (KJHW) late afternoon/ early evening, then into Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) early evening, and eventually into the Genesee Valley (KROC) by late evening. Meanwhile, a few showers may make it into the eastern Lake Ontario region (KART) by late in day into the evening hours with associated low VFR CIGS.
MVFR/IFR VSBY will also be possible within any heavier convection/ thunderstorms across areas south of Lake Ontario Friday afternoon/evening.
Outlook...
Friday night...A chance for showers with patchy fog.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with a chance for showers.
Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. An isolated shower Tuesday on Lake Erie lake breeze.
MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will continue general light winds through the remainder of the work week. A light offshore southeasterly flow overnight will increase some on Friday as a weak cold front slowly crosses the Lake. Following the passage of the weak cold front winds are not expected to increase much, and in fact remain light through Tuesday morning. The next system of note will be a cold front Wednesday, one that has a bit more structure, and a deeper surface low...with the increasing pressure gradient likely to bring a bit more in the way of wind and waves to the Lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45135 - Prince Edward Pt | 23 mi | 55 min | SE 7.8G | 56°F | 52°F | 0 ft | 29.87 | |
| 45215 | 42 mi | 59 min | 60°F | 59°F | 0 ft | |||
| ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY | 45 mi | 55 min | 53°F | |||||
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 45 mi | 55 min | SE 2.9G | 62°F | 57°F |
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Montague, NY,
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