Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Frankfort, MI
March 19, 2024 1:08 AM CDT (06:08 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:52 AM Sunset 7:03 PM Moonrise 1:14 PM Moonset 4:42 AM |
LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1024 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2024
Overnight - West wind 15 to 20 knots. Chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight.
Tuesday - West wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Tuesday night - Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday - Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ300
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 190529 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 129 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Light accumulations of snow expected this evening into early Tuesday, especially across far northern Lower Michigan.
- Accumulating lake effect snow and gusty winds again ramp up for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
UPDATE
Issued at 1041 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Going forecast appears to be on track through the night and heading into Tuesday. Center of approaching clipper still forecast to track just north of a Lake Superior overnight, dragging the trailing cold front through the forecast area during the day Tuesday. Decent setup for lake enhancement into the Straits area and eastern Upper in the southwest low-level flow ahead of the clipper cold front. Most of the snow in this wind regime should fall between 06Z and 12Z tonight. After a lull as the system passes by, colder temperatures expected to spill in and begin northwest flow lake effect by Tuesday night.
Only a few minor tweaks were needed to the forecast at this time.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/
Ridge axis swinging in from the northwest this afternoon, and nearly overhead as of 18z, as far as the lower/mid levels are concerned.
Surface winds beginning to back to the west/northwest now. PV strand continues to drift through from the northwest as well. Little to no uptick in activity noted across northwest lower this afternoon with this; continued warm advection and subsidence aloft leading to a gradual quieting of lake effect, at least, from Manistee county northward. Already seeing some mid/high clouds slip in from the northwest thanks to aforementioned warm advection ahead of the incoming clipper system, still located over Manitoba/Saskatchewan.
Anticipating continued warm advection into the region, particularly across our north, through the evening into the overnight. Even so...low-levels remain cold enough for nuisance lake effect to hold on into the evening, becoming more focused in west and eventually southwest flow areas. Will look for an uptick in snowfall over the area this evening, particularly for the EUP and Tip of the Mitt region...where top-down saturation will be most robust over a longer period of the night tonight. Things slowly improve along our west coast very late tonight/early into Tuesday morning...as we get into the effective dry slot of this system.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
MORE NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND SLICK ROADS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...Deepest/best moisture appears to be more fervent over areas north of M-68, particularly over the EUP tonight...which is also where SW flow should allow for better fetch and LES potential to further enhance snowfall totals above and beyond what minimal amounts are expected from the system itself. This is where we are most favored for another round of 1-3 inch snowfall totals by Tuesday morning. Though snowfall totals will be similar to last night...am leaning against headlines this time around, noting winds should be lighter this time...though not impossible that we could end up seeing some rogue gusts to 20-30mph at times tonight. Not expecting this to be the norm for now, though.
Worth noting that thermal profiles should become isothermal in the DGZ for a time, where we will also likely be saturated. If we end up maximizing lift in this layer for a prolonged time...could see localized quick, fluffy accumulations overperform current expectations across the EUP, though for now...probabilistic guidance does not support much more than 2-3" at most anywhere in the CWA
SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Pattern/Synopsis: Upper troffing continues over eastern Canada, with nw flow aloft over the northern lakes. Weak ripples in this flow cross the region on Tuesday, and again late Tuesday night. At the surface, a somewhat slow-moving low will move east away from Lk Superior. A primary cold front crosses lower MI Tuesday, and a secondary boundary sags south into the area Wednesday.
Forecast: Primary plume of synoptic scale moisture/ascent will be pushing east of eastern upper/ne lower MI during the morning. But lake instability (850mb temps around -10C) will be just sufficient for lake enhancement behind this, in initially sw but veering 1000- 850mb winds. In the afternoon, those winds veer nw, with cold advection beginning but some further drying that will transition us to lake effect snow. The most considerable precip will be over the far eastern UP in the morning (east of a St Ignace-Brimley line), where 1-2" of snow is possible in the morning. Transition of numerous lake effect snow showers will occur in the afternoon in eastern upper MI (where a colder air mass is inbound, and a longer upstream fetch is present). Just small accums though. In northern lower MI, an inch of snow is possible in the morning near and east of Ltl Trav Bay in the morning. Anticipate lesser coverage in the afternoon in northern lower MI (vs eastern upper).
Tue night-Wed...brisk nw-erly low-level flow will sustain lake effect snow showers, gusty winds, and chilly temps. Fetch starts Tue evening borderline wnw/nw, and veers a bit more northerly with time, especially on Superior. 850mb temps tumble to -14/-15C by dawn Wed, and bit further by evening (though with somewhat dryer air working in late Wed). For eastern upper MI, Tue night the flow is backed enough (especially early on) to bring central Chip Co (the Sault)
into the lake effect party. Local 2-4" accums progged. Flow veers more Wed, and western Chip/far nw Mack Cos should be the main focus.
In northern lower MI, best coverage/accums progged for the classic big 5 counties (CVX-GLR-Kalkaska areas), but expanded into Leelanau and Gd Trav Cos as well. Will keep accums in the 1-3" range both periods. Some blowing/drifting snow will occur, especially where higher-end accums are achieved. And wind chills Wed morning may approach zero in some spots. Welcome to the first full day of spring.
Max temps Tue will be sneaky mild just ahead of the surface cold front, mid 30s to near 40f. Lows that night upper teens to mid 20s.
Much cooler highs Wed, mid 20s to lower 30s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Pattern/Synopsis: Upper flow deamplifies over the northern US late this week. An upper low does dig into far northern Ontario, which will keep heights somewhat suppressed here into the start of the weekend. This may also allow a shallow cold airmass to push back into northern MI. Developing troffing in the west will try to push up heights in the east by Monday.
Forecast: Generally chilly thru the period...until maybe Monday.
High pressure tries to build in by late Thursday, suppressing lake effect snow chances. A system (or systems) tracking thru the OH Valley/southern lakes will lead to synoptic snow chances Thu night and Friday, especially in northern lower MI. Incoming high pressure from the nw then returns colder air and lake effect into the start of the weekend. Temps will try to rebound after that, but that warm advection will also result in precip chances, mostly for snow, but perhaps with rain entering the picture Monday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Snow associated with a clipper system falls tonight into Tuesday morning, most prominently at CIU/PLN. Primarily MVFR conditions in this snow, but drops to IFR possible in steadier snow. Snow coverage diminishes later this morning with renewed lake effect snow chances arriving late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Ongoing breezy southwest winds this morning veer west- northwesterly this afternoon.
MARINE
Winds to continue to back to the W and SW through this evening into the overnight hours, diminishing in intensity for a brief period overnight...until winds pick up again toward Tuesday morning as another clipper system slips through the area...and winds turn more northwest again. Next item of interest for marine purposes is potential for gale force winds late Tuesday night into Wednesday in its wake.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 129 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Light accumulations of snow expected this evening into early Tuesday, especially across far northern Lower Michigan.
- Accumulating lake effect snow and gusty winds again ramp up for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
UPDATE
Issued at 1041 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Going forecast appears to be on track through the night and heading into Tuesday. Center of approaching clipper still forecast to track just north of a Lake Superior overnight, dragging the trailing cold front through the forecast area during the day Tuesday. Decent setup for lake enhancement into the Straits area and eastern Upper in the southwest low-level flow ahead of the clipper cold front. Most of the snow in this wind regime should fall between 06Z and 12Z tonight. After a lull as the system passes by, colder temperatures expected to spill in and begin northwest flow lake effect by Tuesday night.
Only a few minor tweaks were needed to the forecast at this time.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/
Ridge axis swinging in from the northwest this afternoon, and nearly overhead as of 18z, as far as the lower/mid levels are concerned.
Surface winds beginning to back to the west/northwest now. PV strand continues to drift through from the northwest as well. Little to no uptick in activity noted across northwest lower this afternoon with this; continued warm advection and subsidence aloft leading to a gradual quieting of lake effect, at least, from Manistee county northward. Already seeing some mid/high clouds slip in from the northwest thanks to aforementioned warm advection ahead of the incoming clipper system, still located over Manitoba/Saskatchewan.
Anticipating continued warm advection into the region, particularly across our north, through the evening into the overnight. Even so...low-levels remain cold enough for nuisance lake effect to hold on into the evening, becoming more focused in west and eventually southwest flow areas. Will look for an uptick in snowfall over the area this evening, particularly for the EUP and Tip of the Mitt region...where top-down saturation will be most robust over a longer period of the night tonight. Things slowly improve along our west coast very late tonight/early into Tuesday morning...as we get into the effective dry slot of this system.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
MORE NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND SLICK ROADS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...Deepest/best moisture appears to be more fervent over areas north of M-68, particularly over the EUP tonight...which is also where SW flow should allow for better fetch and LES potential to further enhance snowfall totals above and beyond what minimal amounts are expected from the system itself. This is where we are most favored for another round of 1-3 inch snowfall totals by Tuesday morning. Though snowfall totals will be similar to last night...am leaning against headlines this time around, noting winds should be lighter this time...though not impossible that we could end up seeing some rogue gusts to 20-30mph at times tonight. Not expecting this to be the norm for now, though.
Worth noting that thermal profiles should become isothermal in the DGZ for a time, where we will also likely be saturated. If we end up maximizing lift in this layer for a prolonged time...could see localized quick, fluffy accumulations overperform current expectations across the EUP, though for now...probabilistic guidance does not support much more than 2-3" at most anywhere in the CWA
SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Pattern/Synopsis: Upper troffing continues over eastern Canada, with nw flow aloft over the northern lakes. Weak ripples in this flow cross the region on Tuesday, and again late Tuesday night. At the surface, a somewhat slow-moving low will move east away from Lk Superior. A primary cold front crosses lower MI Tuesday, and a secondary boundary sags south into the area Wednesday.
Forecast: Primary plume of synoptic scale moisture/ascent will be pushing east of eastern upper/ne lower MI during the morning. But lake instability (850mb temps around -10C) will be just sufficient for lake enhancement behind this, in initially sw but veering 1000- 850mb winds. In the afternoon, those winds veer nw, with cold advection beginning but some further drying that will transition us to lake effect snow. The most considerable precip will be over the far eastern UP in the morning (east of a St Ignace-Brimley line), where 1-2" of snow is possible in the morning. Transition of numerous lake effect snow showers will occur in the afternoon in eastern upper MI (where a colder air mass is inbound, and a longer upstream fetch is present). Just small accums though. In northern lower MI, an inch of snow is possible in the morning near and east of Ltl Trav Bay in the morning. Anticipate lesser coverage in the afternoon in northern lower MI (vs eastern upper).
Tue night-Wed...brisk nw-erly low-level flow will sustain lake effect snow showers, gusty winds, and chilly temps. Fetch starts Tue evening borderline wnw/nw, and veers a bit more northerly with time, especially on Superior. 850mb temps tumble to -14/-15C by dawn Wed, and bit further by evening (though with somewhat dryer air working in late Wed). For eastern upper MI, Tue night the flow is backed enough (especially early on) to bring central Chip Co (the Sault)
into the lake effect party. Local 2-4" accums progged. Flow veers more Wed, and western Chip/far nw Mack Cos should be the main focus.
In northern lower MI, best coverage/accums progged for the classic big 5 counties (CVX-GLR-Kalkaska areas), but expanded into Leelanau and Gd Trav Cos as well. Will keep accums in the 1-3" range both periods. Some blowing/drifting snow will occur, especially where higher-end accums are achieved. And wind chills Wed morning may approach zero in some spots. Welcome to the first full day of spring.
Max temps Tue will be sneaky mild just ahead of the surface cold front, mid 30s to near 40f. Lows that night upper teens to mid 20s.
Much cooler highs Wed, mid 20s to lower 30s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Pattern/Synopsis: Upper flow deamplifies over the northern US late this week. An upper low does dig into far northern Ontario, which will keep heights somewhat suppressed here into the start of the weekend. This may also allow a shallow cold airmass to push back into northern MI. Developing troffing in the west will try to push up heights in the east by Monday.
Forecast: Generally chilly thru the period...until maybe Monday.
High pressure tries to build in by late Thursday, suppressing lake effect snow chances. A system (or systems) tracking thru the OH Valley/southern lakes will lead to synoptic snow chances Thu night and Friday, especially in northern lower MI. Incoming high pressure from the nw then returns colder air and lake effect into the start of the weekend. Temps will try to rebound after that, but that warm advection will also result in precip chances, mostly for snow, but perhaps with rain entering the picture Monday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Snow associated with a clipper system falls tonight into Tuesday morning, most prominently at CIU/PLN. Primarily MVFR conditions in this snow, but drops to IFR possible in steadier snow. Snow coverage diminishes later this morning with renewed lake effect snow chances arriving late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Ongoing breezy southwest winds this morning veer west- northwesterly this afternoon.
MARINE
Winds to continue to back to the W and SW through this evening into the overnight hours, diminishing in intensity for a brief period overnight...until winds pick up again toward Tuesday morning as another clipper system slips through the area...and winds turn more northwest again. Next item of interest for marine purposes is potential for gale force winds late Tuesday night into Wednesday in its wake.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI | 27 mi | 28 min | WSW 23G | 36°F | ||||
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI | 43 mi | 28 min | WSW 23G | 35°F | 29.90 | |||
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI | 49 mi | 50 min | W 16G | 36°F | 22°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KFKS FRANKFORT DOW MEMORIAL FIELD,MI | 1 sm | 13 min | WSW 09G18 | 10 sm | Overcast | 36°F | 19°F | 51% | 29.82 |
Gaylord, MI,
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