Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frankfort, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:52PM Thursday August 17, 2017 8:14 PM CDT (01:14 UTC) Moonrise 1:19AMMoonset 4:32PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ346 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 406 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Tonight..West wind 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers through the night. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:201708180415;;536576 FZUS53 KAPX 172006 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 406 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ345-346-180415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frankfort, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.63, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 172300
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
700 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Showers storms into the evening...

high impact weather potential... A few thunderstorms remain
possible through early evening... Marginal to slight risk for
severe storms.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Deep well defined short wave stacked
low has advanced into northern wisconsin western upper michigan
this afternoon. Occluded warm front arcs through green bay then
down through the SW part of the CWA where dewpoints have nudged
into the lower 70s... Impressive for northern michigan. Main
widespread batch of showers embedded thunderstorms have pushed
north east of the area at this juncture... While dry slot rotating
around the southern side of the low has punched into lower
michigan.

With the juicy airmass and some heating... MLCAPE values have
increased to a modest 500+ j kg and there are additional showers
that have popped across eastern wisconsin western lower michigan
that will move through the region over the next several hours. But
by far... The better instability is well to our south into ohio
where more vigorous thunderstorms are underway.

Primary forecast concerns... Thunderstorm potential. Stacked low
will cross the upper peninsula later tonight and into ontario on
Friday. Warm occluding front slides through the region over the
next several hours along with narrow axis of instability
along ahead of the front. But despite dewpoints pushing
70f... Instability is not all that impressive owing to very slow
temp recovery today and a moist atmosphere anemic lapse rates
aloft. Nonetheless... A few storms remain possible into early
evening. And with stronger winds aloft and backed low level flow
some shear to work with... Any storms could pose a threat.

Wrap around deeper moisture low clouds showers return later
tonight as upper low tracks through northern michigan... And
persists into Friday. Looking like yet another cloudy cooler
august day on tap for Friday with temps running nearly degrees
below normal.

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Generally pleasant weekend weather...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: low pressure plaguing the great lakes late this
week will gradually lift into western quebec by Saturday morning.

Aside from a moisture-starved shortwave moving through the region
Friday night into Saturday morning, gradual mid-level height
rises weak ridging and attendant surface high pressure will be the
dominant feature driving northern michigan's sensible weather
through the upcoming weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: any lingering lake induced
showers Friday night and pops Saturday as the bulk of shower storm
activity passes by to our south.

Aside from a small chance for a few lingering northwest flow lake
induced showers Friday evening, precip chances continue to diminish
as deep layer moisture strips away to the northeast. By late Friday
night, a well-defined shortwave and attendant weak surface low over
northern il continues to race eastward through southern mi northern
in and into northern oh by midday Saturday. Latest trends continue
to suggest that the vast majority of the CWA will remain dry as
showers storm remain well to our south. Wouldn't be shocked to see a
few sprinkles or a light shower, mainly in the far southeast portion
of the forecast area, but partly sunny skies and temperatures 5-10
degrees warmer than Friday will be the rule. Relatively weak
boundary layer flow should allow for lake breezes to develop... And
despite decreasing synoptic support moisture Saturday afternoon
behind the departing trough axis, it's not totally out of the realm
of possibilities that a rogue lake breeze induced shower or two pops
across sections of northeast lower. Rather low confidence in that
thought precludes much more than slight chance pops at this point,
but something to monitor over the next 24-48 hours. High temps
Saturday right around normal... Ranging from the mid-upper 70s.

Generally quiet weather is expected during the daylight hours Sunday
under mostly to partly sunny skies with temperatures warming another
5 or so degrees over Saturday. Highs above normal ranging from near
80 north to the low-mid 80s elsewhere.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
height falls working into the region early in the week will bring
the best chance of widespread showers over the extended. Timing
continues to favor Tuesday for the arrival of widespread rain. Can't
completely rule out some isolated showers Monday with a weak
boundary passing through and good return flow starting to increase
moisture as high pressure slides through the ohio valley Sunday.

Blends are still bringing at least partly cloudy skies for Monday,
which seems reasonable. Will have to see how strong and how long the
moisture advection affects the area prior to Monday. Temperatures
expected to run a bit above normal heading into midweek, with a
cooling trend later in the week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 700 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
scattered showers will continue to impact all northern lower
michigan TAF sites tonight thru much of Friday as deep low
pressure tracks eastward thru the great lakes region. A
thunderstorm is also possible into the evening hours... But the
chance is too small to include in the TAF for now. Winds will
shift to the SW and eventually to the W nw... Strengthening to 15
to 25 kts on Friday.

Marine
Issued at 331 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017
gusty southeasterly winds today will be replaced with gustier
westerly winds for Friday... As low pressure tracks through
northern michigan into ontario. Small craft advisories on all the
nearshore areas will likely be extended into Friday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 5 am edt Friday for miz008-015-017-
018-024-030-036-042.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Friday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Friday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Friday for lsz321-322.

Near term... Ba
short term... Mg
long term... Mk
aviation... Mr
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi34 min SSW 16 G 18 71°F 1003.7 hPa
45020 34 mi24 min SSW 14 G 19 74°F 71°F1 ft65°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi34 min SSW 18 G 21 71°F 1003.7 hPa
45024 49 mi24 min SW 14 G 18 71°F 69°F4 ft1005.7 hPa68°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 49 mi44 min SSW 13 G 19 72°F 66°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last
24hr
E4
E3
E5
G8
E6
G10
SE8
G14
SE5
G9
SE5
G10
SE6
G11
SE8
G11
SE5
G12
SE6
G10
S9
G13
S7
G13
S10
G15
S10
G17
S11
G16
S11
G17
S12
G18
S14
G18
S10
G15
S12
G20
S16
G24
S13
G17
S13
G17
1 day
ago
NE4
NE3
E2
E2
E3
E2
E3
E3
E5
E5
NE2
--
--
SE4
W3
W2
W5
NW4
W2
SW2
NW5
W3
SW2
NE1
2 days
ago
SE2
E2
E2
E3
E3
E3
NE3
NE5
G8
E6
NE2
NE2
NE3
G7
NE3
N1
N3
G6
NW4
NE5
G10
W6
G9
NW5
G10
NW7
G10
NW7
NW5
G8
N4
G10
N4

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI1 mi39 minS 9 G 1410.00 miOvercast72°F69°F91%1002.4 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi18 minSW 810.00 miOvercast72°F66°F82%1003.8 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE3SE7SE5SE6SE10
G14
SE7SE11
G15
SE11
G15
SE11
G16
S6CalmSE4SE5S11
G17
S11
G20
S10
G18
S10
G17
S12
G18
S13
G22
S11
G18
S11
G20
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W8W7CalmW3W3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW7N5NW5NW5NW5N4N4NW5N5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.