Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frankfort, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:07AMSunset 8:39PM Sunday June 25, 2017 3:57 AM CDT (08:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:52AMMoonset 9:58PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 438 Am Edt Sun Jun 25 2017
Today..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the morning, then isolated showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:201706251645;;787927 FZUS53 KAPX 250838 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 438 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ345-346-251645-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frankfort, MI
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location: 44.63, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 250837
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
437 am edt Sun jun 25 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 433 am edt Sun jun 25 2017

Periodic showers today and cool for late june...

high impact weather potential: minimal... A few thunderstorms this
afternoon early evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast: 06z surface composite analysis shows a
roughly east-west oriented front laying across upper michigan and
extending into southern quebec. Upper low spinning across the upper
great lakes early this morning... Moving into western lower michigan.

Nicely defined deformation zone to the north of this upper low has
an attendant band of rain arcing from northeast wisconsin... Across
central eastern upper michigan and across northern lake huron.

Scattered showers also closer in to the main circulation cold pool
over northwest lower... Did have some lightning with it earlier over
lake michigan but no strikes recently (as of 0715z). 500mb
temperatures around -24c within the center of the low... An
impressive 3 standard deviations below the mean for late june. Water
vapor imagery shows another well-defined vorticity center dropping
south across lake winnipeg... With another southeast digging short
wave trough over southern saskatchewan.

Upper low making nice eastward progress across the lower peninsula
early this morning... And will track into the lower great lakes this
afternoon while trailing short wave trough over manitoba follows
quickly on its heels into the upper lakes tonight. Cold front
across upper michigan doesn't appear to move much today as overall
gradient is rather weak... But a surface response to the second wave
is expected to form over the state tonight.

Primary forecast concerns: initial area of rain associated with
deformation zone expected to tend to thin out as the morning
progresses... IR imagery already showing cloud top warming across
northeast wisconsin. Scattered showers will accompany the passing
upper low across northern lower early this morning... And though
upper level support will slide east this afternoon... Some skinny
instability will allow for some spotty convection to develop with a
bit more focus along the lake huron and southeast upper michigan
lake breeze boundaries. Cooler than normal temperatures will also
be notable today... With temperatures hanging mainly in the 60s
(normal highs in the mid-upper 70s).

While this activity wanes during the evening... Another round of rain
will arrive from the west with the next short wave trough. Best
chance for rain tonight likely across upper michigan and leaking
into northwest lower.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 433 am edt Sun jun 25 2017

Cool, showery Monday then drying out and warming up...

high impact weather potential... Minimal. Small chance for a
thunderstorm or two on Monday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Deep longwave trough will remain over
the upper great lakes through Monday night. A potent shortwave will
briefly evolve into a closed upper low as it passes over the lower
peninsula on Monday, changing back to an open wave as it crosses
lake erie. Some additional weak mid level energy will stream in
behind this shortwave Monday night, followed by another weaker
shortwave dropping through eastern ontario on Tuesday that may
just brush eastern upper. Beneath the closed low, a weak surface
low and cold front will drift across northern michigan on Monday,
providing some additional forcing. Large surface high will slide
into the middle mississippi valley by Tuesday morning, with a ridge
building over northern mi Monday night. Meanwhile, a flattening
upper ridge over the plains will make some eastward progress during
the day on Tuesday, providing some additional subsidence and a
transition to warm air advection.

Primary forecast concerns... Temperatures and rain chances on Monday
will be the main forecast challenge. With the cumulative cooling
trend from the weekend continuing into Monday, expect temperatures
will find it a little harder to recover during the day following
morning lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Despite expected mostly
cloudy skies and healthy shower activity that will limit daytime
heating, raw deterministic guidance looks a bit on the cool side.

Ensemble members show a fair amount of spread in forecast highs, but
means are generally in the upper 50s to low 60s which looks more
reasonable and is also in line with MOS guidance. Regardless, Monday
will be a cool day by late june standards... A good 10-15 degrees
below normal.

Showers are expected to be scattered to numerous during the day
Monday as the vertically stacked low moves through the area.

Forecast soundings show a nearly saturated column through the mid
levels, and there will likely be a small amount of CAPE (a few
hundred j kg) that develops. This may be enough for a thunderstorm
or two over mainly northern lower, but think storm chances will be
considerably lower than this weekend given very limited instability
and weaker low level lapse rates.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 433 am edt Sun jun 25 2017
high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms possible at various
times from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday.

Flattening upper ridge upstream will slide into the upper great
lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the same time, some weak mid
level energy associated with a shortwave over ontario will probably
brush eastern upper, and there is a small chance this could trigger
a shower or two. Otherwise better rain chances will hold off until
Wednesday afternoon as a developing low over minnesota interacts
with strong gulf moisture advection. With models coming into good
agreement, confidence is increasing in the potential for heavy
rainfall across northern michigan Wednesday evening as a warm front
and robust ~50 knot low level jet nose their way through the region.

The remainder of the week also looks fairly active as a few
shortwaves ripple across the northern CONUS and interact a steady
stream of moisture coming from the gulf. Considerable uncertainties
for the late week period, but models are hinting at the possibility
of another stronger system sometime in the Friday to Friday night
timeframe. Temperatures look to be near or just a tad below normal
through the period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1150 pm edt Sat jun 24 2017
MVFR CIGS may develop overnight into Sunday morning.

A cold front crossing superior late Sat evening will slowly move
southward, and stalling over northern lower mi Sunday. Shower
risks will be maintained thru tonight and into Sunday as this
front moves in, though thunder chances will be lower. With
persistent showers and the front in the region, CIGS will
gradually lower, and periods of MVFR conditions are possible late
tonight into Sunday morning.

Light NW winds.

Marine
Issued at 433 am edt Sun jun 25 2017
no major issues today into this evening as pressure gradient will be
light and winds will be locally dominated by lake breeze components.

Surface low development over northern michigan overnight in response
to upstream short wave trough will allow for stronger northwesterly
winds to develop on lake michigan heading into Monday. Wind gusts
may be sufficient to require small craft advisories Monday
afternoon evening along the northwest lower nearshore zones.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jpb
short term... Mek
long term... Mek
aviation... Jz
marine... Jpb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi77 min WNW 11 G 12 57°F 1014.6 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi77 min NNW 6 G 8.9 57°F 1014.6 hPa
45024 49 mi17 min WSW 14 G 19 58°F 65°F3 ft1015.3 hPa52°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 49 mi39 min W 2.9 G 6 57°F 49°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI1 mi81 minWSW 610.00 miLight Rain55°F50°F83%1013.5 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi61 minENE 310.00 miLight Rain55°F51°F87%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW4NW6NW3W6NW9W8W10W7W6W10
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1 day agoCalmW6CalmNW3CalmNW9NW6W8W6SW4W6W7SW5SW7CalmW4NW9
G15
NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS6SE5S8S13
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SW6SW3SW4CalmW3CalmSW5CalmCalmW3W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.