Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frankfort, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:00PM Thursday October 19, 2017 4:40 PM CDT (21:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:42AMMoonset 6:16PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 346 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:201710200400;;101598 FZUS53 KAPX 191946 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 346 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ345-346-200400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frankfort, MI
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location: 44.63, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 191853
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
253 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 253 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Warmer on Friday...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Surface ridge axis is just upstream of
michigan this afternoon... With the upper level ridge axis extending
from the northern plains thru the mid mississippi valley. Band of
thicker cirrus clouds is drifting thru michigan ATTM just ahead of
the surface ridge axis. There is no precip in sight across the great
lakes or upstream to the lee of the rockies and the mississippi
valley thanks to strong subsidence and dry air firmly in place
across the entire region. CAA in the wake of the moisture-starved
cold front that passed thru our area overnight has held temps a bit
at bay this afternoon... With most locations in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

Surface ridge will slide thru michigan tonight with the upper level
ridge moving into the great lakes on Friday. Strong subsidence and
dry air will maintain dry wx thru Friday... Along with mainly clear
skies. Low temps tonight will cool into the upper 30s to mid 40s as
low levels decouple and winds diminish. Strengthening low level waa
on the backside of the surface ridge axis will boost afternoon highs
into the mid 60s to lower 70s on Friday. Enjoy!

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 253 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Mild Saturday; showers arrive late Saturday night-Sunday...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: a more active pattern shaping up for the second
half of the weekend as ridging aloft gradually shifts downstream
throughout the day Saturday ahead of a potent shortwave trekking
across the nation's midsection. This approaching trough will push a
cold front across the region during the late Saturday night early
Sunday time frame. Guidance continues to peg an elongated ribbon of
impressive late-season moisture along and just ahead of the front
with associated showers sliding west to east across the entire
forecast area.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: gauging shower chances timing
Saturday night into Sunday.

Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated through the day
Saturday. Increasing south-southwesterly flow ahead of the
aforementioned approaching wave is expected to bring a bit of
gustiness at times, most noticeably Saturday afternoon with 15-20 kt
gusts inland... To 25+ kts over lake michigan huron. It's not
completely out of the question that an isolated shower pops up over
eastern upper Saturday afternoon as weak isentropic lift and subtle
mid level energy rotates through the area, but that will likely be
more so the exception rather than the rule.

Clouds increase in earnest from west to east Saturday afternoon and
evening as an elongated cold front extending from near hudson bay
into the lower mississippi valley approaches northern michigan. As
was alluded to above, an area of enhanced moisture ahead of and
along the eastward moving boundary is expected to provide increasing
shower chances across far NW lower late Saturday night and across
the remainder of the region during the day Sunday before the front
completely clears the forecast area by Sunday evening. Limited
marginal instability may be enough to support a rumble of two of
thunder, mainly west of us-131 late Saturday night, but low
confidence precludes thunder chances from entering the forecast at
this juncture. Otherwise, little in the way of high impact weather
is anticipated with this system.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 253 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

At upper levels, a strong 500mb ridge over the eastern one third of
the country during the weekend will push east Sunday, while a 500mb
trough sharpening over the plains pushes over the state Tuesday and
Wednesday. A weaker clipper will drop into the great lakes Thursday.

Associated 850mb temps will fall from around 8c to begin the
upcoming work week, to around -4c by midweek. This pattern will
generate above normal temps in the 60s Monday across northern
michigan before temps fall to more seasonal readings in the upper
40s and mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday.

At the sfc, a very active pattern setting up across the great lakes
next week, as a storm system pushes into the region Monday night
before lifting into quebec Wednesday. A second system pushes over
the NRN plains and into the region Thursday. This pattern will
generate several rounds of rain showers across northern michigan
through the period, the best chances of widespread rain on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 125 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017
surface ridge axis will build over michigan tonight... With the
upper level ridge axis building into our area on Friday. SolidVFR
conditions are expected at all northern lower michigan TAF sites
thru the 24 hour period. Llws will develop around pln tonight as
low levels decouple and winds just off the deck strengthen. West
winds will continue to gust to 20 kts this afternoon. Winds will
shift to the S SW tonight and decrease to 10 kts or less.

Marine
Issued at 253 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017
winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria for much of our
nearshore areas thru this evening. Conditions will continue to reach
sca criteria for most of lake michigan Friday into Friday evening as
southerly winds strengthen again between the departing surface ridge
axis and an approaching cold front. Dry wx will continue across our
entire area Friday thru Saturday and much of Saturday night. Chances
of showers will quickly increase late Saturday night and Sunday
ahead of that approaching cold front.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lhz345>348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lmz323-342.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Friday for lmz341-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lsz321-322.

Near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Sr
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi60 min SSW 15 G 19 60°F 1020.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi60 min SSW 11 G 13 62°F 1021 hPa
45024 49 mi30 min SSW 12 G 14 60°F 60°F3 ft1020 hPa45°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 49 mi40 min SSW 6 G 9.9 60°F 39°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Last
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S18
G29
S17
G25
S17
G23
S19
G26
SW18
G24
S16
G24
SW18
SW19
G25
SW17
G21
SW6
G18
W8
G13
W9
G15
W8
G13
NW11
G16
NW6
G12
W6
G14
W8
G13
W8
G13
W8
G11
W7
G12
W5
G10
SW2
G5
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G7
SW6
G10
1 day
ago
S11
G14
S8
G11
S10
G13
S10
G13
S10
G14
S10
G13
SW13
G18
SW12
G16
SW13
G18
SW14
G19
SW14
G17
SW12
G17
SW12
G17
S14
G18
SW15
G21
SW11
G18
S14
G18
SW17
G22
SW18
G23
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G22
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S19
G25
S17
G23
S19
G26
2 days
ago
SW9
G14
SW9
G13
S7
G10
S6
G10
S8
G11
SW7
G16
SW5
G12
SW5
G18
SW6
G17
SW10
G17
SW10
G18
SW12
G21
SW16
G25
SW15
G23
SW7
G19
SW5
G11
W6
G12
W6
G14
W3
G11
SW3
G7
SW3
G11
SW9
G15
SW11
G16
SW10
G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI1 mi44 minWSW 510.00 miFair61°F42°F51%1019.3 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi44 minSW 810.00 miFair62°F32°F32%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS15
G23
S16
G29
S14
G19
S15
G24
S18
G24
S16
G25
S14
G26
SW9
G21
SW11
G17
SW9
G16
W11
G17
W10
G18
NW13
G18
NW10NW9
G15
W9
G15
W11
G16
W10
G15
W8
G16
W13W10
G16
W8
G15
SW9SW4
1 day agoS6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S7S7S7SW5S7S6S4S4S7S13
G21
S11
G21
S13
G24
S14
G25
S17
G30
S15
G26
S14
G24
S14
G25
2 days agoSW7SW5SE7SE5SE4SE3SW7
G14
SW8
G16
SW9
G16
SW11
G17
SE7S8SE5SW9
G14
SW9W11
G14
W9
G15
W7SW7SW9
G15
SW8S10
G16
SW7
G14
S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.