Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frankfort, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:14PM Thursday December 13, 2018 3:05 AM CST (09:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:32PMMoonset 11:07PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 251 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Today..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Drizzle, snow likely and slight chance of freezing drizzle. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:201812131600;;717728 FZUS53 KAPX 130751 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 251 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ345-346-131600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frankfort, MI
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location: 44.63, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 130747
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
247 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 247 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Low clouds with periodic light precip chances thru tonight...

high impact weather potential... Patchy light freezing drizzle may
cause some slick spots on roads this morning and again overnight.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Slow-moving low pressure remains
centered just west of lower michigan early this morning... With a
weak stationary front extending southward into the ohio valley and
mid mississippi valley. Last evening's light snow has exited
eastward out of lower michigan... But plenty of low clouds along with
areas of fog and flurries light freezing drizzle remain across our
cwa. Latest satellite loop does show some periodic holes in the low
cloud shield... But most of these are relatively short-lived and are
tending to fill back in. Temps have dropped into the 20s in a few
locations that have seen some temporary clearing... But temps across
most of our CWA remain in the lower 30s early this morning.

For today... Low pressure will continue to push eastward thru se
ontario today... With surface and upper level ridging building into
michigan in its wake. Shallow low level moisture clouds will hold
over the region... Maintaining an overall mainly cloudy skies today
and tonight. Low level SE flow will maintain upslope flow across
eastern sections of our cwa... Which will maintain the chance of some
patchy light freezing drizzle across these areas thru this morning.

Areas of fog will also hold over the region this morning before
limited daytime heating lift the fog and may punch a few more holes
in the low clouds as well. Chance of freezing drizzle will end by
afternoon as low level temps warm and surface temps rise into the
mid 30s.

For tonight... The tail end of a weak front will clip eastern upper
michigan... Providing small chances of some light snow light freezing
drizzle during the evening. Better chances of light snow light
freezing drizzle will develop overnight as an inverted trough pokes
into michigan. As is typical lately... Limited moisture and weak lift
will result in light precip intensity and thus relatively minor snow
accumulations (under an inch for our entire CWA overnight). Low
temps overnight will cool into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 247 am est Thu dec 13 2018
high impact weather potential: freezing drizzle possible Friday
morning.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: timing of precip.

Mid level moisture continues to strip out behind departing frontal
boundary although low level moisture exits a few hours later. This
low level moisture will produce chances for some light snow and
freezing drizzle for the first few hours of Friday
morning... Possibly making for a slippery morning commute. High
pressure and much drier air then builds into the great lakes region
and will provide precipitation free weather Friday afternoon through
Saturday. High temperatures will be in the mid 30s to near 40
degrees.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 247 am est Thu dec 13 2018
high pressure and dry air continue to dominate northern michigan's
weather through the end of the weekend. The next chance of
precipitation appears to be Sunday night into Monday with some lake
effect enhanced snow possible behind a departing cold front
associated with a low pressure system over hudson bay with
northwesterly winds filtering in colder air. High pressure and dry
air once again build into the forecast area behind this frontal
boundary. Daytime temperatures will remain mild Sunday, before
dropping back to near 30 degrees behind aforementioned cold front
Monday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1211 am est Thu dec 13 2018
low pressure will continue to slide eastward thru lower michigan
overnight and thru SE ontario on Thursday. Plenty of low MVFR cigs
will hold over the region over the next 24 hours... Possibly
dropping to ifr thanks to patchy fog development (especially
around pln and the higher elevations of northern lower michigan).

A few light snow showers and or some light patchy freezing drizzle
is possible overnight into Thursday morning... Especially in the
higher elevations... But the chance is too small to include in the
taf for now. Winds will remain from the S SE AOB 10 kts.

Marine
Issued at 247 am est Thu dec 13 2018
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru the end of the
work week. Low clouds... Patchy fog and periodic chances of light
snow light freezing drizzle will continue for our nearshore areas
thru Friday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi25 min ESE 5.1 G 6 29°F 1015.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 49 mi35 min E 4.1 G 4.1 28°F 24°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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SE8
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G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI1 mi70 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist27°F26°F99%1015.2 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi69 minE 31.75 miFog/Mist21°F19°F96%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4E9SE5SE9SE9SE10
G16
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E4CalmE4SE4E5E3SE3CalmE5SE3SE4CalmCalm
1 day agoW7W5W7W3W5W4NW3NW5NW4NW5NW3NW5CalmNW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmSE3S4CalmE3SE4
2 days agoCalmCalmW7W5W5W7SW8SW8SW8SW10
G16
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G21
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G24
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G17
W7W6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.