Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frankfort, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:52PM Thursday September 20, 2018 4:07 AM CDT (09:07 UTC) Moonrise 4:55PMMoonset 1:50AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 355 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Friday evening...
Today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the evening. Periodic light rain, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms later this morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Friday..West wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Friday night..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:201809201600;;919840 FZUS53 KAPX 200755 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 355 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ345-346-201600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frankfort, MI
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location: 44.63, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 200734
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
334 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 334 am edt Thu sep 20 2018
high impact weather potential: widespread showers with perhaps some
thunderstorms. Marginal risk for an isolated severe thunderstorm or
two. Primary threat will be damaging winds, and to a lesser extent,
large hail.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
shortwave troughing was situated over the rockies early this
morning, with an associated area of low pressure in the central
plains. A warm front extended east of the low pressure, through
il in oh. A fairly extensive corridor of showers and thunderstorms
was occurring north of this warm front. The convection was being
fueled by deep moisture (pwats nearly 2.00") and instability
(mucapes 1000-2000 j kg), and forced by weak dpva, but impressive
right entrance region upper divergence from 120+kt jet across the
nrn great lakes, and pretty strong LLJ waa. In NRN michigan, we
still had some lingering shallow overlake instability leading to a
good deal of low cloud, but also had some gradually thickening mid
and upper level clouds. Some weak vorticity continues to pass the
region, ejected from the shortwave and traveling through fairly
strong zonal flow overhead. This was resulting in periodic light
rain.

Heading through the day, the rockies shortwave will eject stronger
energy into NRN michigan, while lifting into the central conus,
before reaching the western great lakes tonight. The associated sfc
low will deepen and track ne, pulling the warm front and corridor of
showers and embedded thunderstorms into NRN michigan later this
morning and afternoon. The warm front exits NE of us tonight taking
the majority of the rainfall along for the ride, with the system
cold front arrive by daybreak Friday. The strongest forcing and
heavier QPF will reside with the deepening sfc low, which tracks off
to our nw, but regardless, it appears fairly definite that all of
nrn michigan will get in on some better rains. Behind the warm
front, the air mass becomes increasingly unstable into tonight and
winds are going to be ramping up and becoming gusty in a tightening
pressure gradient. While convection along the cold front upstream of
us this afternoon ought to be cranking out some decent storms, much
of the data suggests that it's activity wanes before while arriving
in NRN michigan. It's another nighttime cold front arrival. We are
expected to have 1100-1500j kg of MUCAPE though, and there is at
least some uncertainty in how much coverage of showers potential
storms we will have. Wind fields are quite strong however, with 0-
6km bulk shear 45-60kts, just doubt the instability will be great
enough to result in a good severe potential. We do remain in the
marginal risk for severe storms and will thus continue to make
mention in the hwoapx.

Lowered high temperatures today just a bit due to thick cloud and
rainfall. Readings in the 60s for most areas. Lows tonight will not
be too far off of that, in the low to mid 60s, temperatures kept up
by those increasing winds and more clouds.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 332 am edt Thu sep 20 2018
high impact weather potential: lingering slight chance of
thunderstorms through early Friday morning, along with gusty
northwest winds. Patchy frost possible Saturday morning, primarily
across the typically cooler interior locations.

Pattern forecast: well-advertised low pressure system is expected to
be situated across the ontario quebec border come Friday morning
with a trailing cold front draped southwest across the central u.P.

Through eastern wisconsin. This front will make rapid progress
across the area locally early Friday morning with lowering heights
aloft and strong cold air advection in place through the remainder
of the day. High pressure gradually presses into the region Friday
night through Saturday with a return to quiet, but cool weather.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: lingering pops Friday. Low
temperatures Friday night Saturday morning with the season's first
patchy frost potential.

Aforementioned cold front is expected to cross northern michigan
early Friday morning, clearing the entire forecast area by midday.

Strong cold air advection will become the rule, evident by continued
gusty northwest winds (25-35 mph) and h8 temps falling from roughly
15 c Friday morning to 3-4 c Friday evening. Lingering low level
moisture behind the front may allow for occasional shower activity
to continue off and on, especially downwind of lake michigan and
superior as lake processes may even play contributor given
increasing over-lake instability (delta TS nearing 20 c).

High pressure gradually presses into the area Friday night bringing
a much drier airmass and a return to precipitation-free conditions
across all of northern michigan. The biggest question through the
forecast period revolves around how quickly clouds clear Friday
night, which will play largely into overnight low temperatures and
potential patchy frost. Current trends suggest skies clearing from
west to east after sunset with mostly clear conditions in place by 2-
3 am (along with rapidly decreasing surface winds), which would
leave several hours of strong radiational cooling and the potential
for temperatures to drop into the mid 30s for the typically cooler
interior locations of both eastern upper and northern lower. Will
continue to trend the forecast in that direction with lows bottoming
out in the mid-30s for the areas mentioned above (much warmer in the
great lakes collar counties).

Mostly sunny and dry conditions expected Saturday as high pressure
becomes centered directly overhead. High temperatures several
degrees below normal... Ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 332 am edt Thu sep 20 2018
high impact weather potential: another patchy frost threat Sunday
morning. Otherwise, minimal for now, although watching thunderstorm
potential early next week.

Potential for another chilly night Saturday night with temperatures
once again bottoming out in the 30s across the typically cooler
locations of northern michigan. Will continue to make mention of
another night of patchy frost potential. Otherwise, focus turns
toward early next week as another system develops across the
plains... Able to tap into gulf of mexico moisture before trekking
northeastward toward the western great lakes. Lots of uncertainty
regarding this system given it being 5+ days out, but it certainly
seems as if it'll carry the next chance for widespread precipitation
across northern michigan.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 231 am edt Thu sep 20 2018
low pressure in the central plains will deepen today and into
tonight, as it lifts into the NRN great lakes. The system warm
front lifts through NRN michigan late today and into this evening,
with a cold front arriving late tonight into Friday morning. More
widespread showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will arrive this
morning, with activity becoming more isolated scattered later
today and into tonight. MVFR possible ifr CIGS will prevail,
before conditions eventually turnVFR behind the warm front. Also,
winds will ramp up and become gusty tonight. Am a little uncertain
as to how gusty, and the impact they have on llws, as even
stronger winds develop just off the ground. However, winds at 2kft
are expected to quickly ramp up to 35kts this evening, and then to
45-50kts after midnight. Despite gusty sfc winds, will mention the
stronger llws.

Marine
Issued at 332 am edt Thu sep 20 2018
low pressure in the central plains will deepen today and into
tonight, as it lifts into the NRN great lakes. The system warm front
lifts through NRN michigan late today and into this evening, with a
cold front arriving late tonight. Widespread showers and perhaps
some thunderstorms will arrive this morning, with activity becoming
more isolated scattered later today and into tonight. More
importantly, winds will be increasing later today through tonight,
and will remain strong through Friday, with gale force speeds over
most nearshore waters. High pressure arrives Friday night and holds
through the weekend.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Gale warning from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Friday for
lhz345.

Gale warning from 8 pm this evening to midnight edt Friday night
for lhz346>349.

Lm... Gale warning from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Friday for
lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Ls... Gale warning from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Friday for
lsz321.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 32 mi38 min E 5.8 G 7.8 65°F 67°F1019.1 hPa
45020 34 mi28 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 70°F59°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 43 mi28 min E 6 G 8.9 63°F 1017.6 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 49 mi38 min ENE 4.1 G 7 63°F 60°F
45024 49 mi28 min N 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 66°F1 ft1017.5 hPa62°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI1 mi73 minS 310.00 miOvercast61°F61°F100%1017.6 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi72 minNE 310.00 miOvercast61°F60°F97%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN4CalmE4E7CalmCalmE3CalmW4W7NW3N4NE5CalmE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE3E4Calm
1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N5N5N5N6NW4N5N3N5N4N4NE3CalmN3N3N4N5N3E4
2 days agoCalmS6S6S7S4SW5S8SW8S6SW9S7SW9S3S5SW4CalmN8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.