Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pilgrim, MI
March 18, 2024 9:17 PM CDT (02:17 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:54 AM Sunset 7:02 PM Moonrise 12:11 PM Moonset 4:04 AM |
LMZ366 Expires:202403190930;;980867 Fzus63 Kmkx 190151 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 851 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
westerly winds will continue overnight, becoming more southwesterly by Tuesday morning as high pressure of 30.3 inches builds across the southeastern united states and low pressure of 29.4 inches moves eastward across southern ontario. Winds will accelerate overnight with gale force gusts expected across the southern third of lake michigan throughout Tuesday morning. Winds will then begin to decelerate and turn northwesterly Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front associated with the low pressure sinks southeast across the lake. Winds will remain northwesterly on Wednesday, with gale force winds possible across the northern portions of lake michigan as high pressure builds across canada and the northern great plains. Winds will then decelerate Wednesday night into Thursday as the high pressure builds into the great lakes region.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-190930- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 851 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Rest of tonight - West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest to 30 kt. Slight chance of light freezing rain and snow showers through early evening, then chance of snow showers and slight chance of light freezing rain overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday - Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming northwest 15 to 25 kt. Chance of snow showers in the morning, then slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday night - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday - Northwest gales to 35 kt. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Wednesday night - Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Snow likely. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming east. Chance of snow. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 851 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
westerly winds will continue overnight, becoming more southwesterly by Tuesday morning as high pressure of 30.3 inches builds across the southeastern united states and low pressure of 29.4 inches moves eastward across southern ontario. Winds will accelerate overnight with gale force gusts expected across the southern third of lake michigan throughout Tuesday morning. Winds will then begin to decelerate and turn northwesterly Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front associated with the low pressure sinks southeast across the lake. Winds will remain northwesterly on Wednesday, with gale force winds possible across the northern portions of lake michigan as high pressure builds across canada and the northern great plains. Winds will then decelerate Wednesday night into Thursday as the high pressure builds into the great lakes region.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-190930- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 851 pm cdt Mon mar 18 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
LMZ300
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KGRB 182347 AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 647 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- An upper level disturbance will produce very light snow or flurries tonight across the north. Little or no accumulation is expected.
- Except for Tuesday, below normal temperatures will continue into next weekend.
- Next chance for widespread snowfall is forecast to arrive a little slower with snow overspreading much of the area Thursday evening and continuing into Friday morning. Some differences between the operational models and the NBM probabilities of 3" or more of snow off the DESI on where the heaviest band of snow would set up.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday
Stratus clouds will leave the forecast area during the late afternoon hours as winds back to the west and some drier and milder air arrives from Minnesota. This should provide us with a little sunshine before the sun sets this evening.
An upper level disturbance moving by to our north will bring warm advection, middle clouds and maybe some light snow or flurries across the northern half of the forecast area later tonight. Little or no accumulation is expected.
A cold front will move through the area Tuesday and be accompanied by some clouds but no precipitation. Warm advection ahead of it and downslope winds will make for high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal over all but northcentral Wisconsin.
Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday
After an exceptional mild winter into the first half of March, the weather pattern has changed to a below normal pattern for the next week to ten days. The pattern is also expected to become more active with a system Thursday night and Friday, and then another one with a prolong period of precipitation chances Sunday into next Tuesday. The 500mb northwest flow pattern will gradually shift to a zonal flow this weekend before becoming southwest early next week.
For Tuesday night, gusty northwest winds will continue behind a strong cold front. Very cold air will be filtering southeast into the area. 850mb temperatures will be around 20C, resulting in lake effect snow showers across the far north later in the night which will linger into Wednesday before really dry wipes out the lake effect snow shower activity. High temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees colder than Tuesday. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph will add a chill to the air.
For Wednesday night, high pressure should move across the area allowing for diminishing winds and cold overnight lows. The biggest change to the forecast is on Thursday. Later model trends are slower, thus removed any chance of precipitation. The snow should overspread much of the area Thursday evening, with the lowest chances over the far northeast corner of the state.
The clipper system will swing across the region, south of the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Some of the operational models have the highest axis of snowfall from from near Minneapolis to near Milwaukee. Based off the NBM, the DESI indicated a 40-70% chance of 3+ inches as far north as Rhinelander and Sturgeon Bay. Still being 3 days out, there is a good chance that the axis of heavy snow will still shift.
Friday night through Sunday morning should be tranquil The next system bring precipitation back into the area on Sunday afternoon with precipitation lingering all the way into Tuesday. The precipitation will most likely start out as snow and will likely transition to a wintry mix or rain early next week.
The system moves away from the area on Friday, bringing an end to the snow.
AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Mid-level clouds will thicken and lower a bit this evening as a clipper low pressure system approaches the area. This system will bring a chance of light snow or flurries to far northern and northeast WI from mid-evening through the early overnight hours, but the TAF sites are expected to remain VFR. A cold front will sweep across the region late tonight into Tuesday morning, bringing gusty northwest winds and stratocumulus clouds with bases between 3500-5000 ft AGL. The exception will be in far north central WI, where MVFR ceilings and a few flurries may occur Tuesday morning.
LLWS will develop ahead of the cold front late tonight, then end as the cold front moves through the region Tuesday morning.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 647 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- An upper level disturbance will produce very light snow or flurries tonight across the north. Little or no accumulation is expected.
- Except for Tuesday, below normal temperatures will continue into next weekend.
- Next chance for widespread snowfall is forecast to arrive a little slower with snow overspreading much of the area Thursday evening and continuing into Friday morning. Some differences between the operational models and the NBM probabilities of 3" or more of snow off the DESI on where the heaviest band of snow would set up.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday
Stratus clouds will leave the forecast area during the late afternoon hours as winds back to the west and some drier and milder air arrives from Minnesota. This should provide us with a little sunshine before the sun sets this evening.
An upper level disturbance moving by to our north will bring warm advection, middle clouds and maybe some light snow or flurries across the northern half of the forecast area later tonight. Little or no accumulation is expected.
A cold front will move through the area Tuesday and be accompanied by some clouds but no precipitation. Warm advection ahead of it and downslope winds will make for high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal over all but northcentral Wisconsin.
Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday
After an exceptional mild winter into the first half of March, the weather pattern has changed to a below normal pattern for the next week to ten days. The pattern is also expected to become more active with a system Thursday night and Friday, and then another one with a prolong period of precipitation chances Sunday into next Tuesday. The 500mb northwest flow pattern will gradually shift to a zonal flow this weekend before becoming southwest early next week.
For Tuesday night, gusty northwest winds will continue behind a strong cold front. Very cold air will be filtering southeast into the area. 850mb temperatures will be around 20C, resulting in lake effect snow showers across the far north later in the night which will linger into Wednesday before really dry wipes out the lake effect snow shower activity. High temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees colder than Tuesday. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph will add a chill to the air.
For Wednesday night, high pressure should move across the area allowing for diminishing winds and cold overnight lows. The biggest change to the forecast is on Thursday. Later model trends are slower, thus removed any chance of precipitation. The snow should overspread much of the area Thursday evening, with the lowest chances over the far northeast corner of the state.
The clipper system will swing across the region, south of the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Some of the operational models have the highest axis of snowfall from from near Minneapolis to near Milwaukee. Based off the NBM, the DESI indicated a 40-70% chance of 3+ inches as far north as Rhinelander and Sturgeon Bay. Still being 3 days out, there is a good chance that the axis of heavy snow will still shift.
Friday night through Sunday morning should be tranquil The next system bring precipitation back into the area on Sunday afternoon with precipitation lingering all the way into Tuesday. The precipitation will most likely start out as snow and will likely transition to a wintry mix or rain early next week.
The system moves away from the area on Friday, bringing an end to the snow.
AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Mid-level clouds will thicken and lower a bit this evening as a clipper low pressure system approaches the area. This system will bring a chance of light snow or flurries to far northern and northeast WI from mid-evening through the early overnight hours, but the TAF sites are expected to remain VFR. A cold front will sweep across the region late tonight into Tuesday morning, bringing gusty northwest winds and stratocumulus clouds with bases between 3500-5000 ft AGL. The exception will be in far north central WI, where MVFR ceilings and a few flurries may occur Tuesday morning.
LLWS will develop ahead of the cold front late tonight, then end as the cold front moves through the region Tuesday morning.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI | 37 mi | 38 min | SSW 16G | 34°F | ||||
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI | 42 mi | 48 min | SW 4.1G | 32°F | 29.94 | |||
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 43 mi | 78 min | 0 | 29.94 | ||||
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI | 46 mi | 38 min | WSW 17G | 34°F | 29.99 | |||
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI | 48 mi | 38 min | SSE 2.9G | 32°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Green Bay, WI,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE