Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:20PM Monday November 20, 2017 9:38 AM CST (15:38 UTC) Moonrise 9:34AMMoonset 7:09PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 834 Am Cst Mon Nov 20 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
.gale warning in effect from 3 pm cst this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south gales to 35 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tonight..Southwest gales to 40 kt. Waves building to 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft.
Tuesday..West gales to 35 kt becoming northwest winds to 30 kt. Chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday..South gales to 35 kt becoming southwest gales to 40 kt. Chance of rain. Waves building to 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
LMZ366 Expires:201711202230;;698327 FZUS63 KLOT 201434 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 834 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure averaging 30.2 inches is centered across the southeastern states today. Low pressure of 29.2 inches will move from southern Saskatchewan this morning to Quebec late Tuesday. Broad high pressure of 30.4 inches will build across the central and northern Great Plains Tuesday and gradually shift to the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-202230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 201103
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
503 am cst Mon nov 20 2017
updated aviation portion for 12z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Tuesday
issued at 239 am cst Mon nov 20 2017
southerly winds ahead of an approaching low pressure system will
bring above normal temperatures to the area today. With very dry
air in place, the weather is expected to be dry with mostly sunny
skies for much of the morning. Increasing clouds will come in
from the west this afternoon as the low pressure system gets
closer to the area. Highs today will generally be in the 40s
across northeast wisconsin.

A clipper system will track through southern canada tonight,
bringing a cold front through the western great lakes. Despite the
passage of a cold front, the main effect will be clouds and a wind
shift as model soundings indicate a lack of deep moisture with the
best dynamics well to the north coincident with the low itself.

Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 20s across the
north, with lower to middle 30s across east-central wisconsin and
the lakeshore.

Although high pressure will build in across the northern plains on
Tuesday, winds will be conducive for some lake effect snow across
the far north as delta t values climb to the middle teens. The
best chance for accumulating snow will be in vilas county, where a
few tenths or an inch of snow is possible. The rest of the area
will be fairly dry with skies clearing out in the afternoon hours
as the high inches eastward. Highs Tuesday will range from the
middle to upper 20s across the north, with highs in the middle 30s
across east-central wisconsin and the lakeshore areas.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
issued at 239 am cst Mon nov 20 2017
the main concern for this package will be the chances of snow
showers across the far north Tuesday night, rain chances and high
temperature on Friday, and lake effect snow showers across the far
north next weekend.

For Tuesday evening, scattered lake effect snow showers or flurries
will be ongoing across far north-central wisconsin, especially
across vilas county. Low level winds are bit west of north, thus
snowfall amounts will be limited across the northern portion of
vilas county. The snow showers will come to an end late Tuesday
night as low level winds back more westerly and drier air filters
into the region. For Wednesday, travelers should see mostly sunny
skies with highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

For thanksgiving day, it will start out seasonably cold with
morning temperatures in the teens to lower 20s. High temperatures
during the afternoon should warm into the middle 30s to lower 40s
which is very close to normal. The forecast on Friday is somewhat
uncertain with the next cold front approaching the area from the
west. The latest ECMWF canadian model surface temperatures indicated
readings in the lower to middle 50s. Current forecast has highs
in the 40s, thus high temperatures may need to be raised several
degrees if the model trends continue. As for precipitation type,
will go with a chance of showers on Friday. Of note, mid level
lapse rates were around 6 c km, thus wouldn't be surprised if
there was a clap of thunder Friday afternoon especially across
northern wisconsin. Blustery to windy conditions are expected
ahead and behind the cold front which is expected to move across
the area Friday night. A colder northwest flow noted behind the
front. The chances for lake effect snow showers across the far
north will be on the increase later Friday night and continue into
Saturday night or Sunday morning. After a mild Friday, temperatures
return to or below normal by next Sunday.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 503 am cst Mon nov 20 2017
mid and high levelVFR clouds are anticipated through the taf
period. Gusty south winds are expected this afternoon and this
evening, before turning westerly later tonight as a cold front
passes through. The main aviation concern is llws, which will
develop in advance of a cold front this evening, as southwest
winds aloft increase to 40 to 50 kts.

Marine
Issued at 239 am cst Mon nov 20 2017
pressure gradient is forecast to tighten between high pressure
over the mid-atlantic states and the clipper low pressure moving
across southern canada today and tonight. A small craft advisory
is in effect starting this afternoon. A few gale force gusts are
possible tonight and Tuesday as winds become northwest, however
they are not expected to last long enough to issue a gale warning
with this issuance. Winds are expected to drop below small craft
criteria by Wednesday as ridging moves through the western great
lakes.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kurimski
long term... ... Eckberg
aviation... ... .Kurimski
marine... ... ... Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi59 min S 9.9 G 13 39°F 1010.5 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi51 min WSW 1.9 G 7 35°F 1008 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi59 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 35°F 1008.8 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi59 min SSW 13 G 16 41°F 1010.8 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi49 min SSW 9.7 G 12 38°F 48°F2 ft1009.9 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi63 minSSE 510.00 miFair37°F31°F81%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW16
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SW7W8SW8W8W10
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W5SW3CalmSE5S7
1 day agoN4N3N7N5N6
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2 days agoSE15
G20
SE14
G17
SE11
G20
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S10SE13SE13
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SW7SE4S4SE3SE4CalmNW4NW5N4N3N3N5N7N8
G18
N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.