Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 7:09PM Thursday March 23, 2017 3:15 AM CDT (08:15 UTC) Moonrise 4:14AMMoonset 2:17PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 258 Am Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Today..South winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tonight..South winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers in the evening...then rain showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt. Rain showers likely in the morning...then rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Rain showers likely in the evening...then rain showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday..Northeast winds to 30 kt becoming east. Chance of rain showers in the morning...then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 25 kt. Rain showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast. Chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft.
Monday..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ366 Expires:201703231515;;939336 FZUS63 KLOT 230758 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 258 AM CDT THU MAR 23 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10% OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.6 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND 29.7 INCHES AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-231515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 230354
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1054 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance

Short term Tonight and Thursday
issued at 301 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
several potential pitfalls to the short-term forecast ranging from
extent of light snow late tonight/early Thursday morning, how fast
to bring precipitation back to the area Thursday afternoon and
what impact will all of this have on temperatures.

The 19z msas surface analysis indicated a large area of high
pressure over the great lakes. Several weak areas of low pressure
were located over the rockies which will eventually organize into
one main system. Visible satellite imagery showed a dissipating
band of lake clouds over far eastern wi, but also showed the
leading edge of WAA clouds marching across the upper midwest.

Under these clouds, the radar mosaic had picked up on light
returns. However, there was no ground truth and most of these
returns were likely virga.

Mostly clear skies with light southeast winds will prevail this
evening, however the clouds to our west will overspread central wi
toward midnight and eastern wi during the wee hours of the morning
as WAA increases over the region. A stronger push of waa, coupled
with a weak shortwave topping a modest upper ridge, will bring a
chance of light snow to central wi toward daybreak. Temperatures
are expected to quickly fall this evening, then stabilize as the
clouds arrive overnight. Look for readings to range in the upper
teens to around 20 degrees north, mainly 20 to 25 degrees south.

The chance of light snow will linger into early Thursday morning,
but forecast soundings do indicate a very dry air mass at low-
levels of the atmosphere, thus we may see more virga than actual
light snow. A dusting would appear to be the best we can do,
mainly across the north. Much of northeast wi could then be dry
for several hours on Thursday as the main system to still be
moving through the rockies. That being said, increasing moisture
transport through the day, coupled with persistent waa, could
bring increasing rain chances to the forecast area Thursday
afternoon (especially late in the day). MAX temperatures are
expected to reach the middle to upper 30s north, upper 30s to
lower 40s south.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
issued at 301 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
pattern in the long term forecast remains active with many
challenges revolving around precipitation types through the
weekend and early next week.

Focus starts on Thursday night with the first main wave of
precipitation likely to have started, or start soon, as moisture
surges into the area. Good confidence that the south will remain
rain through the night. Locations roughly north of hwy 29 have a
chance to see a transition to freezing rain as surface
temperatures cool overnight. Models vary on how cold it will get
Thursday night. GFS is the warmest and suggests a longer period of
rain to the north, while NAM drops temps to the north below
freezing earlier, which would result in the potential for ice
accumulations greater than a tenth of an inch, or even two tenths
in some locations. Given the uncertainly, and how dependent the
precip type is on surface and road temperatures, confidence in
amount of ice accumulation is not high. Also, would not be
surprised to hear a few claps of thunder Thursday evening, mainly
to the south and west, as lapse rates are around 6.5 to 7.5 c/km,
but the most unstable air is much further south and west and focus
remains on freezing rain potential in the north.

Good confidence that any freezing precipitation will change to
liquid by late Friday morning. For the rest of the weekend, long
term models don't vary too much on the overall track and timing
of the main surface low. Questions still revolve around available
moisture (especially north), temperatures, and timing of precip
type changes. Expect a repeated pattern through Monday with rain
during the day and freezing/mixed precipitation possible
overnight. With colder and drier air filtering into the north this
weekend, the ice accumulation potential does not appear as high
these nights, and any accumulations look to remain minor.

The pattern next week continues to send a train of systems from
the southwest towards the midwest and ohio river valley area,
however models diverge this far out with numerous track and timing
differences. Would expect the general active pattern to continue
with on and off precipitation chances.

High temperatures through the period will generally be around
or slightly above seasonal normals, with low temperatures
expected to be slightly above seasonal normals.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1051 pm cdt Wed mar 22 2017
high pressure over the great lakes is forecast to shift to the
east tonight and allow for a southerly wind to return to wi. An
increase in mid-level clouds tonight will mark the arrival of
warmer air. Enough saturation may occur over northern wi late
tonight into Thursday morning to produce flurries and patchy light
snow, along with a stratocumulus cloud deck. After a brief break
in the precipitation chances in the late morning and early
afternoon, a chance of light rain is expected to return later
Thursday afternoon. MainlyVFR conditions are expected through
Thursday afternoon.

Flight conditons will deteriorate Thursday evening as steadier
rains arrive and ceilings/vsbys lower to MVFR. As temperatures
cool across northern wi, some freezing rain is expected to
develop. In addition, llws is expected to develop, as south to
southwest winds increase to 40 to 50 kts in the 1500-2000 ft agl
layer.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kallas
long term... ... Klb
aviation... ... .Kieckbusch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi35 min SE 8 G 9.9 22°F 1031.8 hPa
SYWW3 - Yacht Works Sister Bay WI 40 mi85 min SSE 7 G 8 25°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi45 min S 13 G 15 30°F 1030.3 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi35 min SSE 2.9 G 7 28°F 1030.5 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi35 min ESE 8 G 9.9 24°F 1032.2 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 48 mi35 min SE 1.9 G 7 25°F 1029.8 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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G6
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G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair17°F12°F79%1031.8 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N4N4NE5
G16
NE6NE8NE8SE5NE6NW4NW9NW10N8N7N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW8N11
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2 days agoSE4E3CalmSE3CalmS5SW5SW7SW6SW5NW6NW5N6NE6N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.