Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:45PM Monday August 21, 2017 6:53 AM CDT (11:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:40AMMoonset 7:49PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 301 Am Cdt Mon Aug 21 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south. Slight chance of showers this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening...then showers with Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ366 Expires:201708211530;;712154 FZUS63 KLOT 210801 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 301 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...A weak trough of low pressure of 30.0 inches extends across the upper Great Lakes with an associated frontal boundary within this trough extending southwest to low pressure of 29.7 inches over the western plains. The front will remain nearly stationary through Tuesday evening. High pressure of 30.1 inches building out of central Canada will begin to force the front south down Lake Michigan Monday night. Low pressure of 29.7 inches is expected to develop along the front and track across northern Lake Michigan Late Monday night. As the low moves off to the east and high pressure spreads across the northern plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, the cold front will accelerate down the lake early Tuesday, and push south of the lake by Tuesday afternoon. Winds will turn northerly and strengthen following the frontal passage. High pressure of 30.0 inches will park over the upper Midwest through midweek as the exiting low deepens to 29.2 inches as it movies into northern Quebec Wednesday afternoon. The high will spread slowly wast across the Great Lakes late this week and into the weekend. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-211530-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 211021
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
521 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
updated aviation portion for 12z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Tuesday
issued at 334 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
convection trends today and tonight continue to be very
challenging.

Overnight, a weak cold front dropped into the state and at 3 am
extended roughly from central marinette county to wausau to
southeast minnesota. Winds have tapered off but overall it appears
the front has stalled. A few showers developed along this front
around midnight but little or no development after that. Mu capes
still around 1200 j kg near this front, but little forcing at this
time as an 850 ridge slides over this morning. To the southwest
over iowa, convection continues to develop along the cap edge and
area of greater instability. LLJ also positioned in this area.

The ECMWF appears to be handling this iowa convection the best at
the onset, but for the today period, various models are all over
the place for convective solutions. So the question later morning
or today is the amount and timing of any convection. Return flow
and instability expected to increase this afternoon ahead of a
short wave trough approaching from the plains. Will continue to
monitor on any northeast development from the iowa convection this
morning, especially along the frontal boundary.

Primary weather feature to likely affect the area late today and
especially tonight is the 850 trough passage. Convection was more
widespread over the dakotas early this morning with this feature.

Pwats are progged to increase to near 2.00 and mu capes rebound
to the 1000 to 1200 range for the entire area. Deep layer shear
increases by tonight with the westerly flow and rrq region of a
jet.

850 mb trough with surface cold front slide through late tonight
or early Tuesday to end the precipitation chances from west to
east. Cooler and drier air will pour into the region on gusty
northwest winds.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
issued at 334 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
all the action remains in the short term portion of the forecast
for this work week. High pressure at the surface will keep mostly
dry conditions in the forecast through the end of the week. As we
get towards next weekend, warm air and southerly flow are
expected to return, setting up the next chance to see active
weather in the area. Details on timing and strength will start to
become more clear in the coming days. Temperatures will be below
normal through the work week and rise to a few degrees above
normal by the end of the weekend.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 521 am cdt Mon aug 21 2017
patchy ifr lifr vsbys due to fog will linger a few hours after
daybreak due to light flow and a weak frontal boundary extending
from around mnm to auw to SE minnesota. Isolated convection may
develop along or near this frontal boundary today, otherwise
MVFR ifr CIGS with MVFR vsbys to become more widespread late
afternoon into tonight as a short wave trough and cold front slide
over the area.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Tdh
long term... ... Uhlmann
aviation... ... .Tdh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi74 min S 7 G 9.9 69°F 1017.9 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi54 min S 1.9 G 4.1 67°F 1016.4 hPa (+1.5)
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi74 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 69°F 1016.6 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi74 min S 6 G 8 70°F 1018.6 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi64 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 68°F 67°F2 ft1017.1 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi79 minN 010.00 miFair67°F66°F98%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmW6W5W6SW8W6
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2 days agoW9W9
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NW10NW6CalmCalmCalmN4N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.