Tuesday, May30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:09AMSunset 8:27PM Tuesday May 30, 2017 4:15 AM CDT (09:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:25AMMoonset 12:09AM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 248 Am Cdt Tue May 30 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt. Chance of showers this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 kt veering to north 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ366 Expires:201705301530;;437176 FZUS63 KLOT 300748 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 248 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10% OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO 29.5 INCHES AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO JAMES BAY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEYS WHILE WEAKENING TO 30.1 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...AVERAGING 29.9 INCHES...WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 29.7 INCHES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEPENING TO 29.5 INCHES AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-301530-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 300832
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
332 am cdt Tue may 30 2017
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 329 am cdt Tue may 30 2017
cool with scattered showers again today, then warmer and drier for
a couple days before cooler and wetter weather returns for the
weekend.

The upper flow across north america is dominated by a fairly
sharp ridge over the intermountain west and a deep trough centered
over ontario. Those features will maintain their intensity for a
couple days and then weaken some late in the week. Of more
importance is likely to be the development of a modest branch of
westerlies forecast to undercut the western ridge and feed
increasing amounts of pacific energy eastward across the central
and northern conus.

The period will begin cool and showery due to the influence of the
ontario upper trough. A couple days of drier and warmer weather
will follow as the trough shifts elongates eastward allowing
upper heights across the forecast area to rise. Precipitation
chances will return as an emerging branch of the upper flow
undercuts the western ridge late in the week or during the
upcoming weekend. Precipitation totals for the week will be highly
dependent on how much falls with that, and as such are difficult
to gauge.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Wednesday
issued at 329 am cdt Tue may 30 2017
today will be similar to yesterday only cooler and probably with
the showers having slightly lower coverage. Satellite indicated a
well-defined vort across northeast minnesota early this morning,
and it should slide across the forecast area during the mid-day
hours. Instability is not expected to be quite as great as
yesterday as mid-level lapse rates will be a little lower.

Confined the mention of thunder to the afternoon, and to the
southern portion of the area where models generated the greatest
capes. That fit well with the general thunder area in the spc
swody1 outlook.

Showers are likely to linger into tonight, especially across the
north where another weak shortwave is likely to track this
evening. By Wednesday, rising upper heights and warming aloft will
result in more stable conditions. Would not be surprised if a few
showers lingered in the northeast early in the day, but stuck
with a dry forecast for now.

Edged temperatures toward a blend of the top-performing guidance
products, which was not really a big chance from the previous
forecast.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
issued at 329 am cdt Tue may 30 2017
the forecast period will start out quiet Wednesday night and then
become more active Thursday night into the weekend as a few
systems moves across the region. For Wednesday night, latest
numerical guidance has come in cooler with low temperatures for
this period. With clear skies and light winds, trended close to
the latest guidance. This would mean that our typically colder
spots across the north could see some patchy frost. Added this
scenario to the hazardous weather outlook (hwo). Mild conditions
will prevail on Thursday with low afternoon relative humidity
readings. Readings could be down to 30 to 35 percent across the
north.

On Thursday night, a warm front will approach from the southwest.

Some differences in the models if convection would make into
central and east-central wisconsin. Per coordination with offices
to the west, have raised chances of rain in this region. Steep
mid level lapse would still support the chance of thunderstorms.

Chances of showers and storms continue into Friday and Friday
night. Latest indications are that a convective complex south of
the area would push the front south late Friday night and Saturday
morning. This could lead to a lull or end of precipitation for a
period of time until the main low pressure system approaches from
the west Saturday afternoon. Leaned toward the ECMWF canadian
solution for now as the GFS appears to be an outlier with
precipitation well south and west of wisconsin. The ECMWF canadian
bring the low south of the forecast area Saturday night and then
into the eastern great lakes Sunday. This system would bring
another round of steadier rains and increasing northerly winds.

Any lingering rain would end Sunday during the day for most
locations. Some afternoon instability showers are still possible
on Monday across northern wisconsin.

Mild temperatures expected Thursday and Friday, then temperature
should run at or slightly below normal for the weekend into much
of next week.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 329 am cdt Tue may 30 2017
vfr conditions prevailed across the area early this morning,
though there were some lower ceilings (MVFR) back in minnesota.

Anticipate primarilyVFR ceilings during the period, though a
brief period of MVFR ceilings is possible in central and north-
central wisconsin this morning when convective clouds first form.

MVFR ceilings are possible across the north again tonight, though
confidence in that aspect of the forecast is rather low.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Eckberg
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi36 min SSW 13 G 17 52°F 1010.2 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi46 min W 7 G 9.9 54°F 1008.7 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi36 min SW 5.1 G 8 53°F 1008.1 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi36 min WSW 14 G 16 52°F 1010.5 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 48 mi36 min SSW 4.1 G 9.9 52°F 1007.8 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi41 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F45°F83%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW8SW3SW7SW9
G14
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW4CalmSE4S4SW5S4S5S4CalmCalmCalmSW6W3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W5W6W5W7W7W6W4W3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.