Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:52 AM   Moonset 3:51 PM

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LMZ366 Expires:202405042130;;608131 Fzus63 Kmkx 041401 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 901 am cdt Sat may 4 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
areas of low clouds and some patchy fog continue to work their way over the open waters from lower michigan this morning. While not expected to be widespread, visibilities could briefly drop to and below a mile in spots over the southern and middle portions of the lake for the remainder of the morning. Dense fog advisories are not planned at this time as webcams and increasing wind trends favor lower clouds rather than widespread fog.
a weak, 29.9 inch low pressure center will approach from the west today, dragging a cold front across the open waters in the process. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible along the front. Most activity is expected to remain sub- severe, though an isolated strong storm with small hail and gusty winds can't be ruled out. A 30.1 inch high pressure will approach from the northern great plains on Sunday, resulting in light & variable surface winds. Winds will begin to shift out of the east- southeast Monday afternoon & evening as a 29.1 inch low pressure center develops over the northern great plains. Winds will pivot between southeasterly and southwesterly through mid- week, prior to turning out of the north and northwest on Thursday & Friday as a 29.6 inch low pressure center moves east of the open waters. Periods of showers and Thunderstorms are forecast from early to mid week, with conditions drying out by the end of the week & beginning of next weekend.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-042130- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 901 am cdt Sat may 4 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft. Tonight - South winds 10 to 20 kt veering to northwest. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt backing to south. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday - East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday night - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 041153 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 653 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected later this morning into this evening, with additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Low clouds and fog, locally dense, possible across parts of central and north-central WI late tonight into early Sunday.

- A few rivers will remain at or reach bankfull stage this weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Sunday

Main forecast concerns will be pinning down the timing of rain today into this evening, storm chances, fog/frost potential and cloud/temp trends.

Today...a dry start to the day is expected with mid and high clouds spreading across the region. Clouds will thicken and lower from west to east, as a shortwave, low pressure and cold front approach. An area of showers associated with these features (and possible weakening MCV?) will arrive as a LLJ aids in moisture transport back into the area and we get into the RRQ of an upper jet. Still some slight timing differences, but most of central and north-central WI should see the rain by 18-19z, with the band working east and weakening across the area through the afternoon.
Additional showers and a few storms look to develop across eastern WI in the afternoon ahead of the front. Models have trended higher with rain amounts, with some CAMs showing over 0.75" in parts of central and northern WI. While the PWATs do climb to between 1.00-1.25", think the high amounts are a little ambitious as the band will be moving rather quickly. Ensembles/NBM, along with WPC, more in the 0.10-0.40" range which seems more reasonable for most spots. Instability will be tough to come by due to clouds, but a narrow ribbon of instability (SBCAPE 200-500 J/kg)is still forecast to develop/advect into eastern WI this afternoon.
This will keep the chance for a few non-severe storms going through around sunset. If storms can form during peak heating, lapse rates do steepen for a time, so a strong storm would be possible with some small hail. Not too much wind to bring down from aloft, but a weak inverted-V profile could aid in a brief gusty winds.

Highs will be coolest where the clouds/rain arrive first, with upper 50s and lower 60s expected across parts of central and north central WI. Further east, highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. Cooler readings are expected near Lake MI as onshore winds are expected.

Models are again hinting at some clouds/fog across Lake Michigan as dewpoints climb ahead of the front. Little to no fog was observed yesterday (with only a little over the far southern part of the lake), and with similar moisture and water temps, would think fog chances are low. But low clouds are more likely and will add some extra clouds over eastern WI, but will hold off on any fog mention for now. Will need to monitor the area of low clouds/fog over MI and see how it behaves as it works westward.

Tonight...the rain showers and isolated storms will exit east of the area by midnight. Recent rains, decreasing winds, and at least partial clearing skies should allow for fog development, mainly across central and north-central WI. While the the HRRR is currently showing a 20-40% chance for visibilities under a mile, it is similar to what it showed yesterday when fairly widespread dense fog developed just to our west. Have added fog for much of central and north-central WI after midnight. Lows look to drop into the upper 30s and 40s for most spots. But if clouds clear a little quicker across parts of central WI, we could see temps quickly drop into the mid 30s. Frost/freeze headlines have begun from Marathon Co. southward, so a frost advisory may be needed if temps trend a little colder.

Sunday...dry conditions will prevail as high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes. Lingering low clouds and some fog is expected in the morning, especially across central and north- central WI. Some daytime cu are expected in the later morning and afternoon due to lingering low level moisture. Winds look to be just light enough for a lake breeze to develop across far eastern WI in the afternoon. 850mb temps drop back to around 3-6C, which will support highs mainly in the 60s to near 70. RHs look to drop into the 30s in the sandy soil regions, but with the recent wet weather, continued green-p and lack of gusty winds, the fire weather threat will be minimal.

Long Term...Sunday Night Through Friday

Dry start to the extended period Sunday night through most of Monday with a ridge of high pressure over the region. Deep mixing to around 4000ft Monday afternoon could lead to slightly elevated fire weather conditions with RHs falling to around 30 percent and southeast winds gusting to 20-25 mph. Fire weather concerns will be greatest across the sandy soil regions of northern and central WI where green up has not fully occurred yet.

The remainder of next week will be dominated by an initially well organized cyclone moving into the northern Plains Tuesday. Rain may begin to push into the area as early as Monday night as a warm air advection regime sets up bringing in a surge of deeper moisture with PWAT values around 1.2-1.3". Embedded thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon and evening as instability increases, however, morning rain and cloud cover along with easterly winds off the lake and bay could limit the intensity of any storms that do develop. Confidence in any storms becoming severe is low at this time, however, there is still ample time for the forecast to change. In terms of rainfall amounts the long term grand ensemble (GEFS, EPS, and GEPS) shows a 30-60% for over 0.5" of QPF Monday night to Tuesday night.

Periods of showers and storms are expected Wednesday through Friday as the aforementioned cyclone slowly shifts east and weakens. The disorganized nature of this weakening system makes specific forecast details difficult to pin down. For now expect lots of clouds and periods of rain along with a few storms through the second half of next week. With the recent and forecast rainfall many area rivers and streams will likely continue near or at bank full through next week.

AVIATION
for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 653 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions will continue through around mid-day as mid and high clouds continue to spread across the area. Conditions will drop to MVFR and possibly briefly to IFR late this morning and afternoon as clouds thicken/lower and a round of rain showers pushes across much of the area. Isolated storms are possible this afternoon across eastern WI, but confidence too low to include in the GRB/ATW/MTW TAFs at this time. Conditions improve later this afternoon and evening as the rain exits to the east.

Monitoring a low cloud/fog deck over Lake Michigan that may push into MTW later this morning. Have added a TEMPO group to account for this feature, but uncertainty remains whether it will make it onshore and if it will bring VLIFR conditions.

Fog is possible late tonight, especially across central (CWA/AUW)
and north-central (RHI) WI. Still some uncertainty as to how fast the clouds clear this evening, which will influence if and how dense/widespread the fog will get. Winds just off the surface may limit fog as well.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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