Sunday, December17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:15PM Sunday December 17, 2017 7:41 AM CST (13:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:28AMMoonset 5:07PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 227 Am Cst Sun Dec 17 2017 Two Rivers Wi To Manistee Mi North...
.gale watch in effect from Monday evening through late Monday night...
Today..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast this morning, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 kt veering to west 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Monday night..Southwest gales to 35 kt. Chance of rain and snow showers in the evening. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Tuesday night..Northwest gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Chance of snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming east. Snow and rain. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ366 Expires:201712171615;;015864 FZUS63 KLOT 170827 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 227 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.4 inches over southeast Ontario will move east off into the northwestern Atlantic by Monday morning. Meanwhile, low pressure of 29.2 inches over Northwest Territories will deepen slightly to 29.1 inches as it moves to Hudson Bay Monday night, then continues east to Quebec Tuesday. A cold front trailing southwest from this low will move across the lake Tuesday morning. High pressure of 30.3 inches over the Northern Plains Tuesday afternoon will move east into the western Great Lakes Wednesday. New low pressure of 29.6 inches will develop over the central and southern High Plains Wednesday night with a warm front developing northeast from that low northeast to Lake Michigan. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-171615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 171232
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
632 am cst Sun dec 17 2017
updated aviation portion for 12z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Monday
issued at 404 am cst Sun dec 17 2017
quiet weather expected through Monday with nearly zonal flow
aloft and just a couple weak upper jets moving by. The low level
moisture in place does not seem deep enough to produce freezing
drizzle or snow flurries, so dropped it from the forecast near the
lake and bay today. Not a hundred percent sure it won't happen
but at this time it does not look likely. A weak shortwave trough
will move across northern wisconsin this afternoon and could
produce enough seeding of the low clouds to produce some light
snow showers so added them there this afternoon. Highs today would
be a few degrees above normal with light winds.

Skies might clear for awhile tonight, making low temperature
forecasts tricky. Betting that it will remain mostly cloudy and
kept lows near normal.

South winds and warm advection will make for a milder day Monday.

Highs could hit 40f where there is less snow cover over parts of
wood, portage, and waushara counties. The regional canadian model
depicts this nicely.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
issued at 404 am cst Sun dec 17 2017
a possible winter storm for the latter portion of the upcoming
week continues to be the primary forecast concern.

Monday will feature mostly dry conditions and mild temperatures
as zonal flow aloft keeps active weather out of the region. A cold
front will pass into Tuesday with a decent chance of mixing down
some stronger winds from the 925-850 mb levels. Increased winds a
little across the region to account for this, but the primary
impact will be a brief chance for gale force gusts.

The potential winter storm then becomes the focus of the forecast
starting Wednesday afternoon into Friday. This event has the
potential to be long lived. Warm air advection through the mid
levels along the warm front will serve to set up the initial snow
bands and keep moisture in the region, aided by the right
entrance region of an upper level jet. The region then remains
under the influence of the jet as the upper level trough moves
towards the region accompanied by the surface low pressure system.

Tentatively favor Thursday night as the time of the heaviest
precipitation and snow accumulations as the low pressure system
passes southeast of the region. Snow totals will be determined by
frontogenetical forcing and the longevity of the snow bands in
any particular area, which are difficult to determine at this
time, especially with the lack of a clear shortwave. A further
complication could be possible Thursday afternoon as strong warm
air advection in the mid levels could bring mixed precipitation
towards the area. Current models keep the region below freezing,
so kept this out of the forecast for the time being, but this will
be something to watch.

Temperatures will start above normal and remain around normal
through the latter part of the work week before dropping well
below normal by next weekend.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 632 am cst Sun dec 17 2017
moist air near the ground will keep ifr or low MVFR ceilings
across the area today. The ceilings will climb a few hundred feet
in the afternoon and then lower again after dark. There is a small
chance of snow light snow north of rhinelander this afternoon.

Ifr conditions are expected in most places tonight, though there
could be some breaks in the clouds at times. Ceilings and
visibilities will climb Monday, as south winds increase and mix
out some of the low level moisture.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Rdm
long term... ... Uhlmann
aviation... ... .Rdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi62 min E 6 G 12 24°F 1022.7 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi42 min ESE 8 G 9.9 31°F 1020.4 hPa (+0.7)
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi42 min ESE 15 G 18 29°F 1022 hPa (+0.0)
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi62 min E 12 G 17 24°F 1022 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi47 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy22°F18°F87%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE4E6E7E6E5CalmE5E5E4E4E4E3E3E4E6CalmSE3E4E3E5E6
1 day agoNW11NW11
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W8W8W7NW8NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalm
2 days agoNW4NW6NW6W9SW8W6W6W6W6W7W8W5W3W5W5W11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.