Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 6:59 AM CDT (11:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:12AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 255 Am Cdt Wed Apr 26 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Today..Southeast winds 20 to 25 kt becoming south. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms this morning... Then chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft building to 5 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast. Rain showers. Waves 5 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 20 to 25 kt. Rain showers likely in the morning...then chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft.
Sunday..East winds to 30 kt becoming northeast gales to 35 kt. Rain showers likely. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 11 ft.
LMZ366 Expires:201704261400;;281009 FZUS63 KLOT 260755 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 255 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10% OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. .SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AVERAGING 29.6 INCHES FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN TO 29.3 INCHES AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-261400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 261023 aaa
afdgrb
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service green bay wi
523 am cdt Wed apr 26 2017
updated to add short term portion for morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 520 am cdt Wed apr 26 2017
much cooler and wetter the next couple days. More rain likely
this weekend.

Split flow will be maintained across north america throughout the
forecast period. The southern branch of the split will be much
stronger and dominate most of the conus, with ridges initially
near both coasts and a deep trough over the southern plains. The
features will remain in place for about the first half of the
period, after which a slow progression is expected.

This is a wet weather pattern for the area, with significant
precipitation expected today into early Thursday. A second round
of significant precipitation is expected as a strong cyclone
ejects out of the plains trough this weekend. Between the two
events, well above normal precipitation amounts are expected
across the whole area. Temperatures across the east will still be
mild today, but otherwise daytime highs will generally run 8 to 15
f degrees below normal for most of the period, with some
moderation possible late. Much of the cooling will be due to
clouds and precipitation, so the departure for nighttime lows
won't be nearly as great.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Thursday
issued at 520 am cdt Wed apr 26 2017
lots of details to work out again this morning. The overall
scenario is for a strengthening frontal boundary to shift east
across the area, though its eastward progress will be held up as
a series of waves ride northeast along the front. The wave lifting
up through the area this morning will dissipate later today, with
a stronger wave expected tonight into early Thursday as a much
stronger shortwave swings around into a negative tilt as it ejects
out of the southern plains upper trough. Added resolution into
the pops with the idea there would be a round of rain early this
morning, another batch over mainly the east this afternoon, and an
even more significant surge of precipitation tonight with the
main shortwave. But given the pattern with a constant influx of
moisture however, the added resolution went more into creating
mins and maxes of pops rather than wet and dry periods.

The cold front that dropped into the far north is likely to
gradually lose its identity today as it merges with the main
boundary to the south and east. Temperatures across north-
central wisconsin were colder than on any of the guidance
products, but luckily still a degree or two above freezing. Expect
only a minimal recovery across the far north today. Probably the
biggest forecast issue is what temperatures will be when the main
surge of precipitation reaches the area tonight. Trended a little
warmer than the guidance as it seems the main frontal wave may
track a little farther west than shown on the models. This meant
confining sub-freezing temperatures to mainly vilas county. Even
with slightly sub-freezing air temperatures, not sure what the
icing potential will be given how warm the ground likely is after
some Sun and very warm temps yesterday. Another factor is forecast
soundings looking favorable for sleet. That could end of being of
more significance in generating hazardous travel conditions that
freezing rain since it can lead to slick roads even if the ground
is still relatively warm. Given the uncertainty in exact
temperature forecast and precipitation type, the best course of
action seemed to be to defer the final decision on a headline to
the day shift.

The precipitation is likely to still be across much of the area
early Thursday, though it will diminish during the morning. West
winds will probably become gusty by afternoon as the primary cyclone
consolidates off to our northeast over ontario.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
issued at 352 am cdt Wed apr 26 2017
after a break in the precipitation chances at the end of the week,
attention will be focused on the Sunday-Monday time frame as a
strong, nearly stacked system to move from the southern plains
through the great lakes region. Depending on the eventual track of
this system, locally heavy rains may occur, accumulating snow may
occur or a mix of rain/snow may occur. Even after this system
departs, there are questions with another weaker system to
possibly approach toward the middle of next week. Temperatures are
expected to run below normal through the extended forecast.

An initial system will continue to lift north farther into ontario
Thursday night, leaving very weak surface ridging extended from
the northern plains to the great lakes. Expect skies to at least
become partly cloudy with winds gradually diminishing into the 5
to 10 mph range. The departed system will pull colder air into the
region with 8h temperatures down to the zero to -8c range by 12z
Friday. This would send min temperatures into the middle 20s
north-central wi, lower 30s east-central wi. Dry weather would
continue into Friday, however there is a small threat of light
rain into central/east-central wi Friday afternoon as a weak
surface wave moves along an old frontal boundary, a mid-level
shortwave ejects northeast out of the broad central CONUS upper
trough and wi to reside in the left exit region of the upper jet
for additional lift. Meanwhile, northern wi will remain partly
cloudy through the day, but still cool by late april standards.

Look for MAX temperatures to be in the upper 40s to around 50
degrees north, lower to middle 50s south.

The light rain chances will linger into Friday evening as the
surface low/shortwave move toward the eastern great lakes. High
pressure is then forecast to build into wi later Friday night and
allow skies to become partly cloudy. Winds are forecast to shift
to the north-northeast and continue to funnel cool air into wi.

Min temperatures to range from 25-30 degrees north, lower to
middle 30s south. High pressure centered over western ontario will
continue to send a cool, dry northeast winds into northeast wi on
Saturday and help to at least temporarily stall precipitation from
returning to the area. There is no doubt that Saturday will be the
nicer of the two weekend days, although clouds are expected to
increase through the day and MAX temperatures to be about 10 to 15
degrees below normal.

Attention then turns toward the southern plains where a strong
upper trough to reside with a strengthening area of low pressure
starting to lift north into the mid-ms valley Saturday night. A 50
knot southerly low-level jet ahead of this system will not only
quickly pull gulf moisture northward toward the great lakes, but
also lift a warm front north into northern il by 12z Sunday. A
push of WAA into southern wi will allow for precipitation to
steadily lift north with precipitation chances increasing,
especially over central/east-central wi after midnight. Residual
cooler air over northern wi and parts of central wi may have this
precipitation fall as a rain/snow mix or even all snow. By Sunday,
the upper trough is projected to close off into an upper low over
the midwest and the strong low pressure to move into eastern ia or
western il. The warm front is forecast to push toward the wi/il
border with the models showing a broad mid-level frontogenetical
signal over most of wi. Any snow or mixed precipitation will
quickly transition to all rain Sunday morning with rain likely
over all of northeast wi by Sunday afternoon. Combination of
clouds and precipitation will make it difficult for temperatures
to get out of the 40s on Sunday.

The system is progged to become vertically-stacked as it tracks
northeast into southwest wi Sunday night and northern sections of
the great lakes on Monday. Considering this system is stacked, the
gfs may be a bit hasty in pulling the system away on Monday and
prefer the slower movement like the ECMWF indicates. Assuming the
system follows this path, this would keep any convection and
heaviest rains to our east Sunday night, while the main
deformation zone with higher snow amounts would be to our
northwest. Nevertheless, we will still see some decent rain totals
over eastern wi with the potential for a light accumulation over
north-central wi later Sunday night into Monday morning. Too early
yet for specifics, so stay tuned to later forecasts! The chance
for rain would then continue for the rest of Monday as cold air
aloft wraps into wi behind the system and brings some instability
to the region.

Precipitation chances could even linger into Monday evening
(albeit very light) before finally tapering off later Monday
night. Big differences among the models with the handling of the
next system beginning next Tuesday. The ECMWF is much weak and
farther south than the GFS which is farther north and much wetter.

For now, will follow the consensus solution which favors the ecmwf
and keeps northeast wi dry on Tuesday.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 520 am cdt Wed apr 26 2017
low ceilings were developing in central and north-central
wisconsin behind the remnants of the weakening cold front.

Ceilings in the east were holding up much better. Suspect the low
ceilings will be slow to shift east today as the frontal boundary
reorganizes from ssw-nne across the area. Ceilings across the
entire area should settle into ifr or lifr tonight as the
precipitation increases in advance of the primary shortwave
heading into the region.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi80 min SE 8.9 G 13 62°F 1001 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi42 min S 8.9 G 9.9 50°F 998.2 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi80 min ESE 5.1 G 7 42°F 1000 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi80 min ESE 8.9 G 13 64°F 1000.7 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 48 mi80 min NNE 8.9 G 13 40°F 999.3 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi70 min ESE 9.7 G 12 43°F 37°F2 ft1000.8 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi84 minSE 9 G 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F53°F70%1000 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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SE8S6W11W7W4W5W4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE4SE7SE8SE7SE9SE10
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1 day agoSE6SE9S6S3SW10
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W5NW5W4W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE7SE8SE5SE8SE8
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NE5CalmNE3E5E4E4E4E6CalmE7CalmCalmSE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.