Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:14PM Monday March 27, 2017 5:40 AM CDT (10:40 UTC) Moonrise 6:36AMMoonset 6:48PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 251 Am Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cdt this morning...
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north. Areas of dense fog this morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves building to 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft.
Tuesday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northeast. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming east 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain and snow. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds to 30 kt. Chance of rain and snow. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
LMZ366 Expires:201703271530;;145458 FZUS63 KLOT 270751 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 251 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10% OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OF 29.8 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE OF 29.7 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN UP TO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING 30.3 INCHES CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OF 29.6 INCHES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-271530-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 270438
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1138 pm cdt Sun mar 26 2017
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance

Short term Tonight and Monday
issued at 318 pm cdt Sun mar 26 2017
the latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low
pressure spinning along the illinois/wisconsin border early this
afternoon. Rain showers continue to wrap around the low across much
of eastern wi. Where its not raining, periods of drizzle are
occurring into north-central wi. Visibilities improved with the
arrival of more persistent showers, but dense fog does exist in
close proximity to the surface low. Looking upstream, broken clouds
prevail all the way into eastern north dakota. As the low lifts
northeast, precip trends are the main forecast concern.

Tonight... Low pressure will be moving northeast from southern lake
michigan to lake huron tonight. The most persistent showers will
likely occur over northeast wisconsin during the evening where the
warm conveyor belt wraps around the upper circulation. Progged
soundings indicate that saturation remains pretty deep up to 700mb
for most areas through the night though, so even if showers have the
highest coverage over the northeast, cannot rule out isolated
showers and/or areas of drizzle elsewhere. Winds will lighten a bit
through the night, which will support lowering visibilities with the
ample moisture in place. However, dense fog appears only possible
near the center of the surface low, that will pass southeast of the
area. So think we may escape without a dense fog advisory, though
it may be close along the lakeshore. Without any semblance of
temperature advection in addition to the widespread low clouds,
expect little fall of temperatures tonight. The warmer temperatures
should confine any freezing precip right near the u.P. Border, if
there is any.

Monday... The upper low will exit the region, but will see a weak
shortwave move across northern wi and the upper peninsula. This
shortwave will bring a chance of showers, but coverage should be
limited due to weak forcing. Otherwise, cloudy conditions should
prevail for much of the day with little dry air to push out the
moist airmass. North-central wi has chance for partial clearing
late in the day behind the shortwave. Highs will return into the
low to mid 40s.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
issued at 318 pm cdt Sun mar 26 2017
after wet period across the area, the long term will start off on
a drier note, but another system at the end of the week will
bring wet/wintry weather back as another low pressure system
tracks across the great lakes. No drastic temperatures swings are
expected, with near to above normal readings.

For Monday night, lingering light showers or sprinkles are
possible as low pressure passes across the ohio valley, a mid-
level trough passes across lake superior, and a departing upper
jet Monday evening is quickly followed by an approaching upper jet
overnight into Tuesday morning. Think slight chance pops will
cover for the evening hours. Drier air works into the area by
Tuesday, so dry conditions are expected. Tuesday looks to be the
best chance to see some sunshine this week, but forecast
soundings are showing some lingering moisture both at low and mid-
upper levels which could lead to some clouds. Tuesday also looks
to be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the upper 40s to
lower 50s for most locations.

Surface high centered over northern ontario early Wednesday will
extend/shift south and east into the great lakes on Wednesday.

The surface high along with mid-level ridging will provide for a
dry day. An impressive moisture push from the west and southwest
ahead of the next low pressure will bring mostly cloudy to the
area by afternoon as a thick mid layer cloud deck is expected,
with some lower clouds possible too.

Dry weather looks to hold on until early Thursday morning, then
all eyes will be on an approaching low pressure system. The mid-
upper closed low will eject out of southwest u.S. During the day
on Wednesday, then be on our doorstep Thursday morning (gfs a
little slower). The GFS remains farthest south with the system
and only brushes central and east central wi with some precip.

Ecmwf/canadian remain farther north. Other smaller scale
differences exist, especially with where the deformation band will
set up on Friday.

Temp profiles will be critical as the precip arrives on Thursday
(and through the whole day if current trends continue), with the
heaviest precip in the Thursday afternoon/evening timeframe and a
secondary MAX possible sometime on Friday as the low pressure
passes just to our south/east. The way it looks now, low level
temps and wet-bulb temps look to be just cool enough for
evaporative cooling effects to allow the precip to start off as a
wintry mix Thursday morning, assuming the precip arrives on time.

As the heavy precip moves in later in the day, a change over to
rain is expected for the entire area. That said, the heavier
precip will keep the temp profile very close to the rain/snow
line, so there is a chance the precip could stay a wintry mix
longer, especially over the north. A change over back to a mix is
possible Thursday night as temps cool. This far out a blend of the
models seems reasonable (least confidence in the gfs), but
adjustments will likely be needed as we get closer to the event
and confidence on how low level temps will behave becomes more
clear.

After the system pulls out on Friday, dry weather returns to the
area on Saturday as brief ridging builds across the great lakes.

Chances for precip arrives again on Sunday as a fast moving
clipper type system crosses southern canada, but models differ on
how far south this system will track.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1138 pm cdt Sun mar 26 2017
mainly ifr ceilings expected through midday or early
afternoon Monday. Visibilities will generally beVFR or MVFR where
there is some light rain showers. Conditions may becomeVFR Monday
evening. Confidence is not high, as wet ground and light winds may
produce additional low clouds and fog.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Short term... ..Mpc
long term... ... Bersch
aviation... ... .Rdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi61 min NW 8 G 8 37°F 1012.2 hPa
SYWW3 - Yacht Works Sister Bay WI 40 mi155 min Calm G 0 34°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi41 min W 1.9 G 6 37°F 1011.7 hPa (+1.1)
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi61 min WNW 6 G 12 34°F 1011.5 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi41 min WNW 7 G 20 37°F 1012.9 hPa (+1.4)
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 48 mi61 min W 2.9 G 6 34°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi65 minWNW 34.00 miFog/Mist37°F34°F93%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3E3E4CalmCalmE3CalmE4CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmW4NW5
1 day agoNE4E6E6E9
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E7E7E7E8E4CalmE3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N4N5NE5N6CalmNE6NE3CalmN3NE3NE3NE7
G16
E5CalmNE3N3NE3NE4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.