Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 8:39PM Friday June 23, 2017 2:06 PM CDT (19:06 UTC) Moonrise 4:50AMMoonset 8:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 844 Am Cdt Fri Jun 23 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Patchy fog. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ366 Expires:201706232115;;691523 FZUS63 KLOT 231344 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 844 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.3 inches over far southern James Bay will move east across northern Quebec today. A cool front trailing will clear the southern tip of Lake Michigan this morning with a secondary area of low pressure of 29.7 inches over southern Wisconsin moving east into lower Michigan. A weak low will then drop a cool front down the lake Saturday night. High pressure 30.3 inches will then stretch from the Canadian Rockies to the central Plains by Saturday and drift east to the western Great Lakes by Monday. A series of low pressure systems are then expected to track across the upper Great Lakes during the middle and later part of next week. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-232115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 231709
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1209 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017
updated aviation portion for 18z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Saturday
issued at 400 am cdt Fri jun 23 2017
the cold front had just about exited the forecast area at 09z and
the rain should end by daybreak. Cooler and drier air will work
it's way into wisconsin today, though there could be scattered
showers in the afternoon hours over central and northcentral
wisconsin. Highs will be close to normal for this time of year.

Skies should start the evening our clear, but some clouds will
increase overnight as an upper low approaches from north dakota.

With dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s, low temperatures
should be a few degrees below normal.

Saturday will be breezy and cool, with showers and thunderstorms -
especially in the afternoon. The approaching upper low will be
accompanied by 500 mb temperatures of -20 to -25 c by evening
creating an unstable atmosphere that could support thunderstorms
with gusty winds, small hail and perhaps some cold air funnels.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
issued at 400 am cdt Fri jun 23 2017
an amplified mean flow to persist into early next week, consisting
of an upper ridge over the western CONUS and an upper trough over
the eastern conus. The flow will then flatten toward the middle of
next week as the eastern trough shifts into the atlantic and the
weakening upper ridge gets shoved eastward across the central
conus, being replaced out west by another upper trough. Models are
having issues with the movement strength of this new upper trough
which places uncertainty into the forecast for next Wednesday
Thursday. Bottom line is that the unsettled weather cool
conditions will continue Sunday Monday, then a warmer perhaps more
unsettled pattern for mid-week.

A vigorous little shortwave trough is forecast to push across the
eastern half of wi Saturday evening, before shifting into lower mi
later Saturday night. Even though instability will weaken with the
loss of daytime heating, there is decent mid-level forcing so
anticipate showers few thunderstorms to carry over through
Saturday evening and mostly come to an end overnight. Despite
plenty of cloud cover, the air mass aloft is quite cool by late
june standards (8h temperatures at +2c to +4c range), so min
temperatures will still get down into the middle 40s north-central
wi, lower 50s east-central wi. The next shortwave trough is
expected to drop southeast into the western great lakes region on
Sunday and bring yet another chance for showers afternoon storms
to northeast wi. While this trough is not as strong as its
predecessor, mucapes do approach 300 j kg over east-central wi so
a few of these storms could briefly become strong with small hail
possible. Temperatures will remain well below normal with readings
only in the lower 60s north-central, upper 60s for eastern wi.

Much like Saturday night, it is going to take a while for these
showers thunderstorms to dissipate Sunday night. In fact, some of
the models linger the threat of showers through the night as
instability is slow to diminish and mid-level forcing lingers. The
air mass aloft does not change much, therefore look for min
temperatures to again be in the middle 40s north-central, upper
40s central far northeast and lower 50s east-central wi. The last
in the series of shortwave troughs is progged to move into the
great lakes region on Monday. By this time, upper heights are
beginning to rise over wi as the main upper trough shifts
eastward, thus the air mass aloft will start to moderate. Less
instability should keep shower chances on the low side with no
thunder anticipated. MAX temperatures to range from the middle 60s
north-central, upper 60s to around 70 degrees elsewhere.

An area of high pressure is forecast to build into wi Monday night
and reside to our east on Tuesday. Northeast wi will finally get a
stretch of dry weather with a return of sunshine Tuesday, along
with an uptick in temperatures. Look for readings to mainly be in
the lower to middle 70s.

The mean flow to have become somewhat zonal from the west coast to
the great lakes by Tuesday night. Under this regime, models
typically struggle with timing of systems and this occurs once
again headed into Tuesday night Wednesday as the GFS cmc are
faster than the ecmwf. The faster solution already has
precipitation chances overspreading northeast wi Tuesday night,
while the slower solution holds precipitation off until Wednesday
afternoon. For now, will split the difference and bring small
chance pops to central wi late Tuesday night and go with chance
pops for the entire forecast area on Wednesday (although the
precipitation may hold off until the afternoon hours in the east).

Max temperatures will continue to warm with readings into the
lower 70s north-central lakeshore, middle to upper 70s elsewhere.

Models continue to struggle headed into Thursday with the gfs
showing a west-southwest flow aloft over wi with a cold front
slowly pushing into wi. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has a west-northwest
flow aloft over wi with no cold front. Just too wide a spread
among the models to have confidence in either one, therefore have
followed the consensus solution which runs a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for both Wednesday night and Thursday.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1205 pm cdt Fri jun 23 2017
cumulus clouds will continue to develop across much of the area
this afternoon. Gusty west winds may gust to around 25 knots. Cool
air aloft combined with daytime heating will cause scattered
showers to form by early to mid afternoon and then continue into
the early evening hours. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible
that could produce some gusty winds to around 30 knots and small
hail. Some stratocumulus clouds will continue through the night.

Some showers may enter far northern wisconsin towards 12z. On
Saturday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected after
15-16z and continue into early Saturday evening. Some gusty winds
and small hail are possible, especially Saturday afternoon.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Rdm
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Eckberg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi87 min WSW 1 G 1.9 67°F 1004.7 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi55 min W 8.9 G 17 77°F 1003.3 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi87 min W 4.1 G 14 76°F 1002.4 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi87 min WNW 5.1 G 8 68°F 1005.1 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 48 mi87 min SSW 6 G 11 72°F 1002.4 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi77 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 60°F 57°F1 ft1003.2 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi72 minW 610.00 miFair71°F57°F64%1003.4 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9
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SW6SW3SW4CalmW3CalmSW5CalmCalmW3W5CalmW6CalmNW3CalmNW9NW6W8W6SW4
1 day agoW5W5W6SW6S6SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S9S6SE5S8S13
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2 days agoS10SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.