Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:55PM Sunday October 22, 2017 1:10 AM CDT (06:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:49AMMoonset 7:53PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ366 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 833 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 21 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Rest of tonight..South winds to 30 kt. Slight chance of showers overnight. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Sunday..South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest early in the afternoon...then becoming west 10 to 20 kt late in the day. Occasional gale force gusts in the morning. Showers, mainly in the afternoon. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt. Showers likely in the evening...then chance of showers overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt becoming north. Chance of showers in the evening...then showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest gales to 35 kt becoming north gales to 40 kt. Showers. Waves building to 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Tuesday night..North gales to 40 kt becoming northwest to 30 kt overnight. Rain showers likely. Waves subsiding to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
LMZ366 Expires:201710221000;;212121 FZUS63 KLOT 220133 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 833 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.4 inches over the mid Atlantic Coast will shift slowly east into Sunday. Low pressure of 29.3 inches over Manitoba will lift to Hudson Bay Sunday as a trailing cold front moves across Lake Michigan during the afternoon. Another low of 29.4 inches will move across Alberta Sunday to James Bay late Monday. An associated cold front will move across Lake Michigan Monday night. Low pressure of 29.6 inches will form over the upper Ohio Valley Monday night and lift into eastern Ontario Tuesday, deepening to 29.0 inches as it does so. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-221000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kgrb 220336
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1036 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance

Short term Tonight and Sunday
issued at 209 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
the main forecast concerns center around timing of precipitation
later tonight, convective potential and temperatures for Sunday as
colder air arrives.

The 19z msas surface analysis a cold front which extended from
near lake winnipeg south through extreme western mn, far eastern
ne and points south. A tight pressure gradient existed across wi
in advance of the front with gusts of 20 to 30 mph at times.

Visible satellite imagery showed clouds over the western half of
wi, while eastern wi enjoyed mostly sunny and warm conditions.

Finally, the last of the morning showers from a mid-level
shortwave are exiting northern wi.

Models are still in good agreement with sending the cold front
into wi later tonight (but remaining west of the forecast area).

The models also bring mucapes to around 400 j kg into central wi
this evening, thus cannot rule out a few storms approaching
central wi. Despite in instability weakening through the night,
this would be countered by increasing shear and lift as the front
gets closer. Due to the shear, the chance of seeing thunderstorms
will continue through the night with gusty winds possible, but
remaining sub-severe. Highest pops placed over central wi, while
lakeshore counties may not see any precipitation until the pre-
dawn hours. Min temperatures to remain mild for one more night
with readings in the lower to middle 50s central wi, upper 50s to
lower 60s eastern wi.

The cold front is expected to slowly push east across central and
eastern wi on Sunday, partially impeded by an upper ridge situated
over the east coast. It may take until mid-afternoon before the
front reaches lake mi, thus showers to persist over the entire
forecast area Sunday morning, then gradually diminish over central
wi during the afternoon. Have kept the slight chance of thunder
over eastern wi into Sunday morning, but not overly confident in
this. Have also slowed the rate of clearing over central wi Sunday
afternoon due to the slow movement of the front. MAX temperatures
may easily occur in the morning as colder air starts to sweep into
wi. This would place readings in the middle to upper 50s central,
lower 60s eastern wi before slowly holding steady or slowly
falling in the afternoon.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
issued at 209 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
the stretch of dry and mild weather provided by an upper level
ridge will be replaced by an active, cooler weather pattern as a
long wave trough establishes itself across the great lakes region
during the upcoming week. While the models seem to be in better
agreement regarding a large low pressure system moving through the
central great lakes Monday and Tuesday, there are discrepancies
on how quickly the low pulls out of the great lakes region. The
speed of the low makes the difference between drier and warmer
weather or rainy and cooler conditions. Given the model
discrepancies did not differ much from the superblend.

Another low pressure system will track through the western great
lakes area during the late part of the week. Again the models are
in the general vicinity but the exact placement of the low is off
amongst the models, making for a low confidence forecast that far
out. Models such as the canadian and ECMWF keep the main low to
the north with little to no QPF over our area while the further
south GFS has a swath of QPF across the northern cwa. This slow
moving low will linger into next Saturday, continuing the
precipitation chances across the region.

The aforementioned cooler air will mean snow could mix in at times
during the mid to late week storm systems. However given the
fairly warm ground and mixing with rain not much if any snowfall
accumulation is expected.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1036 pm cdt Sat oct 21 2017
a cold front will move slowly across the region late tonight and
Sunday. It will be accompanied by several hours of showers and
scattered thunderstorms along with MVFR and brief ifr conditions.

The front should exit eastern wisconsin by midday, with quickly
improving conditions following behind it. &&

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kallas
long term... ... Kurimski
aviation... ... .Rdm


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi30 min S 8 G 12 66°F 1016.6 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi40 min S 12 G 15 55°F 1012.8 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi30 min SSE 9.9 G 16 61°F 1013.5 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi30 min S 21 G 27 67°F 1016.3 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi80 min S 21 G 25 64°F 58°F6 ft1013.8 hPa (-1.5)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
S7
S10
S9
S7
G10
S6
G10
S10
S12
S9
S8
S6
G9
S9
S14
S11
S10
G13
S9
S10
S9
S9
S14
G17
S14
G17
S9
S9
S12
S13
1 day
ago
S8
S9
S7
S10
S12
S11
G14
S11
S7
S7
S5
S11
S14
S13
S12
S15
S13
S16
S13
S10
S13
S11
S10
S7
G10
S8
2 days
ago
W2
G6
W4
NW4
NW6
W9
W7
G10
W9
W8
G16
W11
G14
W11
G14
W9
G13
W5
G8
SW4
G8
S11
S7
S9
SW5
SW10
G13
S7
S9

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi35 minSSE 9 G 1710.00 miFair68°F52°F59%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrS12
G19
S8S6S6SE7SE7SE5SE7S7S10
G18
S9
G16
S9S12
G18
S8
G17
S11
G18
S10
G18
S8S12
G16
S8S12SE10
G16
SE11
G16
S9
G19
S11
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S5CalmSE3S9S13
G16
S11
G17
S10
G19
S8
G14
SW9
G14
S11
G16
SW6S7CalmS5S7S9
G14
SE6S7
G15
S11
G15
2 days agoSW11
G17
SW9
G16
W11
G17
W10
G18
NW13
G18
NW10NW9
G15
W9
G15
W11
G16
W10
G15
W8
G16
W13W10
G16
W8
G15
SW9SW4S5S4S4SE3CalmCalmS3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.