Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:21PM Thursday May 24, 2018 9:07 AM CDT (14:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:08PMMoonset 3:01AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 830 Am Cdt Thu May 24 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Slight chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday..South winds 20 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ366 Expires:201805242115;;455280 FZUS63 KLOT 241330 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 830 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.2 inches over the southern Great Lakes region will shift to the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon and to the mid Atlantic Coast tonight. Low pressure of 29.5 inches will move from Manitoba Thursday night into the Upper Midwest Saturday then to Lake Michigan Sunday at 29.8 inches. A 30.0 inch high will build into the western Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-242115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 241132
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
632 am cdt Thu may 24 2018
updated aviation portion for 12z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Friday
issued at 219 am cdt Thu may 24 2018
main forecast challenge to center on convective potential,
especially on Friday as some of the storms may become strong
during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, warm and somewhat humid
conditions to persist into the upcoming holiday weekend.

The 07z msas surface analysis showed an area of high pressure
centered over northwest lower mi. A weak area of low pressure was
located over southeast mt with another low pressure over southeast
co. The radar mosaic picked up several clusters of showers storms
over the plains and the northern half of mn.

An upper ridge axis to be situated over the great lakes region
today with increasing moisture transport riding up the backside of
the ridge. All short-term models indicate at least a chance of
showers thunderstorms across northern wi between the moisture
transport, weak isentropic lift and passage of a weak shortwave.

Shear values remain very weak (< 20 kts), thus no strong severe
storms for today. A mild start to the day, coupled with a
persistent south wind, will bring another warm day to northeast wi
with MAX temperatures in the lower to middle 70s near lake mi,
lower to middle 80s for inland locations.

This initial chance of precipitation will diminish this evening,
however additional shower thunderstorm chances will be on the
increase later tonight as a mid-level trough moves into the upper
midwest. The approach of this trough is expected to enhance the
moisture transport isentropic lift into wi, as well as add mid-
level forcing from the trough itself. Based on the latest timing
among the models, central wi to have the highest pops, while
eastern wi may not see any precipitation chances until daybreak.

Thickening cloud cover and south winds will bring a mild night to
the area with min temperatures only in the upper 50s near lake mi,
lower to middle 60s elsewhere.

The mid-level trough moves into the western great lakes on Friday,
accompanied by a weak trailing cold front. These features will run
into a moist, unstable air mass over wi with mucapes of 1500-3000
j kg, li's as low as -8 and steep mid-level lapse rates. The one
big negative is the weak shear values of 20-25 kts. Therefore,
while an isolated severe storm or two will be possible Friday
afternoon with hail damaging winds being the main threats, a
widespread severe event is not anticipated. There could also be
some locally heavy rainfall with dew points in the 60s and pw
values around 1.5". Despite the clouds precipitation chances,
Friday will be another warm day with MAX temperatures in the upper
70s near lake mi, lower to middle 80s again for inland locations.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
issued at 219 am cdt Thu may 24 2018
forecast concerns continue to revolve around thunderstorm chances
followed by above normal temperatures. A blend of the ECMWF gfs
will suffice.

Friday night through Saturday night... As weak shortwave energy and
main area of elevated moisture transport exits to the east on early
Friday evening, a small chance of thunderstorms will continue,
mainly for eastern and north-central wi. But should see any
lingering convection diminish in the evening with loss of diurnal
instability. Partial clearing and light winds could lead to some
patchy ground fog overnight, especially in areas where there are
decent rainfall totals.

A secondary shortwave will drop in from the northwest on Saturday.

Though progged soundings indicate inverted v-soundings, with
dewpoints mixing out into the low or mid 50s, these soundings also
show sb capes up to 1500 j kg developing over northern wi in the
afternoon, with mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 c kg. Therefore
could see a few strong storms developing in the afternoon into early
evening, especially with deep layer shear reaching upwards of 30
kts. Like on Friday night, partial clearing overnight could lead to
another round of fog where decent rainfall occurs.

Rest of the forecast... Shortwave energy will be off to the east by
Sunday. Will likely see clouds build as diurnal instability
develops, but lack of a trigger should keep any convection rather
isolated and tied to peak heating as temps approach their convective
temps. Then high pressure will build into the region for Monday and
Tuesday. With a light east wind, temps will fall back some, but
still remain near 80 degrees for most locations. The next chance of
showers and storms will then occur in the wed-thu time period as
shortwave energy approaches from the west. Some possibility that
the storm track could push most of this energy to the northwest of
the region.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 632 am cdt Thu may 24 2018
scattered showers thunderstorms may impact the rhi TAF site for a
few hours this morning before moving out weakening. There is a
slight chance for additional showers or a few storms across the
north this afternoon, however primarilyVFR conditions are
expected across northeast wisconsin today. The weather becomes
more unsettled for later tonight into Friday as a mid-level trough
and weak cold front push into a warm, moist air mass over
wisconsin. The best chance for thunderstorms will be Friday
afternoon into Friday evening with a few stronger storms possible.

An increasing low-level jet into wisconsin will also lead to
adding llws into the forecast for later tonight. Vsbys may drop
into the MVFR category under any of the thunderstorms.

Marine
Issued at 219 am cdt Thu may 24 2018
moist air flowing over the cool waters of lake michigan will
continue to produce areas of dense fog. Not much change in
dewpoints or wind direction is expected today, so marine fog is
likely to continue.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Ak
long term... ... Mpc
aviation... ... .Ak
marine... ... ... Ak


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi50 min S 8 G 9.9 52°F 1021.4 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi88 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 49°F 1021.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi88 min S 8.9 G 12 54°F 1023.4 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi38 min S 9.7 G 12 42°F 37°F1021.7 hPa41°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair67°F47°F49%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W7W7W7W5W5W6W5W5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6
1 day agoNW5N6NW6N8N5NW7NW5W7W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5
2 days agoE4SE4SE5SE7S7S10
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E7SE5CalmE7E4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N3CalmCalmE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.