Sunday, March24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 7:08PM Sunday March 24, 2019 3:48 AM CDT (08:48 UTC) Moonrise 11:36PMMoonset 9:03AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Expires:201903241530;;835882 Fzus63 Kmkx 240824 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 324 Am Cdt Sun Mar 24 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A strong cold front over northern lake superior into far northern minnesota will move south across lake michigan today. Gusty north to northeast winds are expected with the frontal passage, including gale force winds from late this afternoon into late tonight over the southern two thirds of the lake. High waves will quickly build this afternoon and continue into Monday. Quiet weather conditions are then expected Monday into Tuesday, as high pressure of 30.5 inches moves from the northern plains into the central great lakes region. Warmer air moving into the region Wednesday into Thursday night will bring the next chance for gusty southerly winds over lake michigan. Lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-241530- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 324 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019 two rivers wi to manistee mi north...
Today..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 15 to 25 kt late this morning, then increasing to 30 kt early this afternoon becoming north to 30 kt late. Slight chance of light rain and snow. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tonight..North winds to 30 kt. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Monday..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming south. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds to 30 kt. Rain showers likely. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
LMZ366


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 240759
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
259 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Monday
issued at 259 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019
a cold front, currently analyzed over central lake superior, will
push south this morning bringing gusty northeast winds and cooler
temperatures to the region. Despite the punch the front will pack
with respect to the winds and temperature, the front itself will
be lacking in moisture and upper level support. Upstream
observations show a fairly narrow cloud deck on IR satellite
imagery with only scattered observations showing any precipitation
falling from the clouds behind the front. In addition model
soundings show a lack of deep moisture, with moisture limited to
the lowest few thousand feet of the sounding. This type of setup
seems to favor some drizzle or sprinkles rather than larger
hydrometeors, therefore carried the same type in this forecast.

Given the lack of moisture, pops are still a concern as nwp and
hi-res model runs are fairly dry as this front dives south. This
seems to bear itself out with upstream observations and will
continue the slight chance pops with the lack of deep moisture and
lift from this system. With FROPA occurring during the morning
hours, daytime highs will likely be in the morning, will steady
or falling temperatures during the afternoon hours. Highs today
are expected to range from the 30s across the north, with 40s
across the south.

Further south high clouds continue to stream in ahead of a low
pressure system tracking through southern illinois. However this
system will be far enough south to not really impact the region
today.

Once this system pushes south skies will clear out later this
afternoon and into the evening hours. This will allow overnight
lows to plummet into the single digits across the north, with lows
in the middle to upper teens across east-central wisconsin.

High pressure will build in on Monday, which will keep the weather
dry under sunny to mostly sunny skies. Despite the abundant
sunshine, high temperatures on Monday will range from the middle
to upper 30s across the north, with highs around 40 across central
and east-central wisconsin given the cool airmass in place.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
issued at 259 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019
high pressure will slide across wisconsin Monday night, and
then east of the state Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Increasing southerly flow on Wednesday should bring mild
temperatures with highs in the upper 40s and 50s away from lake
michigan. The GFS canadian model are much slower with bringing
surface boundary across the western great lakes Wednesday night
compared to the ecmwf. Will continue the chances of showers
Wednesday night and Thursday with boundary nearby. Cloudy skies
may keep high temperatures a little lower than the mex guidance.

On Thursday.

For Friday and Saturday, significant model differences noted
between the farther north GFS canadian solution and the farther
south ECMWF solution. The frontal position will have a big
impact on temperatures and precipitation amounts and types.

Expecting the models to struggle for a few more days with
the surface low track frontal positions. For more details,
see the hydrology section in this discussion.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1032 pm cdt Sat mar 23 2019
vfr conditions are expected overnight, with just an increase in
high clouds overnight. Low pressure over the central plains will
track south of the region later tonight into Sunday, with the
leading edge of light rain only reaching southern wi. A canadian
cold front will sweep south through the region late tonight and
Sunday morning, causing a wind shift to the northeast, and
bringing blustery conditions to the fox valley and lakeshore areas
by afternoon. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop a few hours
after the frontal passage. Spotty very light drizzle or freezing
drizzle is possible over north central and far northeast wi from
mid-morning through early afternoon, but the chance is too low to
mention at the rhi TAF site at this time. Clearing will progress
south across the region during the late afternoon and evening.

Hydrology
Issued at 259 am cdt Sun mar 24 2019
favorable conditions for a slow snowmelt across the north will
continue through mid week. For the system late in the work week
into early next weekend, the models continue to show significant
differences in where the main storm track will be on Friday into
Saturday. The canadian GFS model is farther north and would be of
concern for significant precipitation (rain snow). The ECMWF has
the system farther south and would not bring as much precipitation
to the area. Therefore, confidence remains low on where the axis of
potentially heavy rain or snow would fall. People living near rivers,
streams and creeks should continue to watch for updates on this
system in the coming days. Since there are significant differences
in the models, will not add a blurb about the potential for
additional precipitation late this week in the hazardous weather
outlook (hwo) until models come into better agreement.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kurimski
long term... ... Eckberg
aviation... ... .Kieckbusch
hydrology... ... Eckberg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi48 min SSW 1.9 G 5.1 37°F 1018.6 hPa (-0.4)
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi68 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 40°F 1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi53 minSW 610.00 miFair40°F31°F72%1020 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5SW7S10SW11
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N5N5N7CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN3N3NE3NW3N4N3N4NW3W3W6W7SW6SW7S6S6SW4SW8SW6NW3N7N4NW3NW10
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.