Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:52PM Thursday September 20, 2018 3:33 AM CDT (08:33 UTC) Moonrise 4:58PMMoonset 1:52AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 856 Am Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday evening through Friday evening...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..South winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt during the evening, then becoming southwest gales to 40 kt overnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft building to 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft.
Friday..West gales to 40 kt becoming northwest gales to 35 kt. Waves 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Friday night..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt veering to southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ366 Expires:201809192030;;883157 FZUS63 KLOT 191356 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 856 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.1 inches over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes will gradually shift northeast tonight. Low pressure of 29.5 inches will develop over the Central Plains tonight and then lift northeast to the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday evening. The low will track across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night while dragging a strong cold front across the lake. High pressure of 30.4 inches will spread across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region Saturday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-192030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 200332
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1032 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance

Short term Tonight and Thursday
issued at 226 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
a surface warm front will lift north tonight and Thursday,
producing several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with
abundant isentropic lift north of the front combined with an
increasing low level jet and mid level PV anomalies. Heavy rain
will be possible at times given the deep moisture layer and the
slow moving front.

Models indicate that an inch or two of rain could fall during this
time, which could cause localized flooding. However given most
areas, except for brown county, have been fairly dry recently the
threat for flash flooding does not appear to be that high. However
some urban and small stream flooding is possible from the heavier
rains.

As the front lifts north Thursday afternoon the southern CWA will
actually break into the warm sector with continued rain across
north-central wisconsin north of the warm front as isentropic lift
continues to cause elevated convection. This will bring warm
temperatures and uncomfortable dew points back to central and
east-central wisconsin. This warm, moist air will also cause a
surge in the instability as mucapes rise to 2000 to 3000 j kg with
bulk shear values of 50 to 70 knots. If any storms can get going
in the warm sector Thursday afternoon there is a good chance for
severe weather given the wind and instability profiles. That being
said the best potential appears to hold off until Thursday night
when a cold front approaches from the west given a capping
inversion in the warm sector Thursday afternoon. If any storms can
get going Thursday afternoon the main threat would be damaging
winds given the strong winds just above the surface, with hail
and being a secondary threat. The high degree of turning in the
low level hodographs also indicates that tornadoes could be a
threat as well.

Lows tonight will generally be in the 50s. Highs on Thursday will
range from the middle to upper 70s across central and east-
central wisconsin south of the warm front and generally south of
highway 29, with highs only in the lower to middle 60s further
north, north of the warm front.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
issued at 226 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
the main concerns for the extended period will be the severe
weather potential Thursday night and the potential for frost
Friday night into Saturday morning across northern wisconsin.

The potential for severe storms will concentrated towards Thursday
evening to the early overnight hours, as the cold front moves
through the region. MUCAPE still varies from 1000-1500 on the
ecmwf to 2500-3000 on the nam. Bulk layer 0-6km shear values
approach the 45-55 knots while low layer shear remains strong
around 25-35 knots. Couple these with the strong low level jet and
even the low end MUCAPE will be sufficient for thunderstorm
development and mixing of winds to the surface. Therefore, expect
the primary threat for the area to be damaging winds, with a few
brief tornadoes and large hail as secondary concerns. High
rainfall totals up to around 1-2 inches by the end of the event
will also pose localized flooding concerns on the roads. The front
is expected to be fast moving in the area, pushing through the
region by early on Friday.

Friday, additional shower to isolated thunderstorm activity will
be possible, as wrap around moisture continues to enter northern
wisconsin behind the departing low pressure system. No severe
potential is expected during this time. By Friday evening, active
weather will be out of the region as high pressure moves into the
region.

Depending on the speed at which cloud cover exits behind the
system Friday night, frost may become more of a concern across the
area, especially in the typical cold spots in northern wisconsin.

Stuck to a blend of model guidance for now, leaving lows in the
middle 30s, as the active weather ahead of Friday will help
dictate the temperatures trend at that time.

Beyond that, quieter conditions will persist across the area for
the weekend before we see the next shot for active weather arrive
Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures for the time period will be fairly close to normal,
with a brief period of above normal temperatures on Monday ahead
of the next round of active weather.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1029 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
ifr lifr conditions will continue, through the rain may
result in a brief, temporary mixing out of the lower ceilings. Do
not expect ceilings to improve much until the warm front begins to
lift through the area late tomorrow. Llws will also develop
during the day tomorrow, and is expected to be substantial
tomorrow evening.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kurimski
long term... ... Uhlmann
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi33 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 1016.6 hPa (+0.0)
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi53 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 1017.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi53 min E 8 G 13 63°F 1017.6 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 48 mi53 min NE 5.1 G 8 63°F 1019 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 49 mi23 min NE 9.7 G 12 62°F 67°F1017.4 hPa58°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi38 minS 310.00 miOvercast61°F61°F100%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN4CalmE4E7CalmCalmE3CalmW4W7NW3N4NE5CalmE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE3E4Calm
1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N5N5N5N6NW4N5N3N5N4N4NE3CalmN3N3N4N5N3E4
2 days agoCalmS6S6S7S4SW5S8SW8S6SW9S7SW9S3S5SW4CalmN8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.