Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:14PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 1:18 AM CST (07:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:05PMMoonset 10:09PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 826 Pm Cst Tue Dec 11 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast 10 to 15 kt late this evening, then increasing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight increasing to 15 to 25 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday..Southeast winds to 30 kt. Chance of snow in the morning, then chance of rain and slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Rain likely with a chance of snow overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest. Chance of rain and snow in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 15 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ366 Expires:201812121030;;657830 FZUS63 KMKX 120226 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 826 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... Southeast winds will increase late tonight and Wednesday, as low pressure of 29.8 inches lifts from Iowa into southern Wisconsin, while deepening to 29.7 inches. Gusts to 30 knots are expected from the southeast ahead of this low. It will then quickly dissipate as it shifts into Michigan late Wednesday, with winds decreasing in response. Relatively light winds will persist into Friday, as any strong systems remain well away from the region. By Friday night, low pressure of 29.7 inches will lift from the Tennessee Valley into West Virginia, with north to northeast winds developing in response. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-121030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 120413
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1013 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance

Update
Issued at 853 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
have decided to expand the winter weather advisory to the north,
including marathon and shawano counties. Looks like there will be
a 2-4 hour period of freezing drizzle at the onset of the event,
followed by a few hours of light snow. Although ice snow
accumulations will be light, the arrival of freezing drizzle
during the morning commute is problematic. Suspect that untreated
secondary roads, bridges and overpasses will be quite slick.

Considered adding brown county to the advisory, but low-level
saturation was too questionable.

Short term Tonight and Wednesday
issued at 242 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
cloudy skies prevailed across the region this afternoon.

Temperatures were in the 20s.

For tonight, low clouds will continue to linger across the region
as the next system approaches from the southwest. Weak 850mb warm
advection and increasing lift associated with the system could
cause light freezing rain or freezing drizzle to break out across
central wisconsin towards 12z on Wednesday. Followed the superblend
for lows tonight, although there will be a slow rise in
temperatures across east-central wisconsin due to increasing
easterly winds off lake michigan.

Once the mid level moisture arrives Wednesday morning, the
precipitation should change over to snow. The precipitation
should expand rapidly into portions of north-central and northeast
wisconsin by mid to late morning. Little precipitation is expected
across the far north. Accumulations of around an inch or less are
expected south of highway 29. During the afternoon, the mid level
moisture is expected to decrease, resulting in the snow changing
back over to drizzle or freezing drizzle at most places. Followed
previous forecast for MAX temperatures on Wednesday.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
issued at 242 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
fall like upper air pattern is forecast through the period with
the arctic and polar jet streams to our north and the subtropical
jet well to our south. Most of the significant precipitation will
be associated with jet energy moving through the southern stream.

That leaves us in a mostly mild and dry pattern with a few exceptions.

The first is Thursday night and Friday when an upper trough moves
across the northern great lakes while a closed low moves across
the southern plains. This combination should produce an inverted
trough at the surface with some precipitation across mostly
eastern wisconsin. There isn't much cold air around so a mix of
snow, sleet and rain is expected.

The second is the possibility of snow showers Sunday night and Monday
as a cold front GOES by, but otherwise there do not seem to be many
chances from snow through at least the middle of next week.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1011 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018
expect ifr MVFR ceilings to persist overnight as east to
southeast flow increases off lake michigan. Ceilings will lower
late tonight (central wi) into Wednesday morning (rest of the
forecast area) as freezing drizzle develops. The precipitation
should change over to mainly light snow between 15z-20z, then
switch back to drizzle or freezing drizzle before ending later
in the afternoon. Low clouds will linger into Wednesday night,
and patchy fog may develop.

Looks like there will be a brief period of llws at the auw cwa
taf sites from roughly 11z-15z wed.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory from 6 am to noon cst Wednesday for
wiz030-031-035>038-045-048-049.

Update... ... ... Kieckbusch
short term... ..Eckberg
long term... ... Rdm
aviation... ... .Kieckbusch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi36 min SE 11 G 14 34°F 1013.8 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi38 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 31°F 1015.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi38 min SSE 5.1 G 11 29°F 1016.9 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 48 mi38 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 30°F 1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi23 minN 010.00 miOvercast29°F23°F81%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W7W7W5W7W3W5W4NW3NW5NW4NW5NW3NW5CalmNW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmSE3S4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW7W5W5W7SW8SW8SW8SW10
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2 days agoW8
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W6W8W9CalmNW4NW5W4W6W6SW6SW6SW5W4SW4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.