Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Altoona, WI
March 19, 2024 6:48 AM CDT (11:48 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:07 AM Sunset 7:19 PM Moonrise 12:35 PM Moonset 4:05 AM |
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 190843 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 343 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated fire weather conditions persist through Wednesday, continuing into Thursday for eastern MN & western WI.
- Accumulating snow coming Thursday evening (western MN) into Thursday night (eastern MN and western WI)
- Potential for a more significant winter storm continues to exist for Sunday through Tuesday next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Overnight temperatures have been mild with the thermal ridge passing overhead. Most sites are in the mid to upper 30s with southwest winds gusting up to 25 mph. The timing of the thermal ridge is not ideal as we'll see cold air advection ramp up after sunrise and persist through the day. Surface temperatures will still rebound into the low to mid 40s with a chance at 50 along I-90 corridor.
Unfortunately for us gusty northwest winds will make it feel similar to this past weekend so dress accordingly. Speaking of the wind situation today, sustained winds 20 to 25 mph with sporadic gusts up to 40 mph will remain just below wind advisory criteria. That also means we'll see yet another day with elevated fire weather conditions across Minnesota and western Wisconsin when adding in low RH values & the brown remnants of last year's vegetation. A secondary cold front comes through tonight with a reinforcing shot of cold air. This will be another dry airmass with our RHs dropping into the mid 20 percent range, but the winds should decrease to keep us at elevated fire weather conditions. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s on Wednesday.
For Thursday and Friday, our next system has continued to slow down in forecast guidance, but it remains likely that we'll see a swath of accumulating snow across Minnesota and Wisconsin by Friday AM.
The heaviest snow now looks to fall Thursday late afternoon into Thursday night for western MN and Thursday night into Friday AM for eastern MN and western WI. The synoptic scale set up is still supportive of seeing a broad area of light precip, with a strong northwest to southeast oriented thermal gradient aloft across MN/WI within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. The widespread light precipitation will be driven by large scale isentropic upglide, but there remains a strong signal for a FGEN induced band of heavier snow that'll track through southern MN.
Another concern is with potential convection over Iowa and along the I-80 corridor. Recent guidance suggests that feature may limit moisture advection and forcing further north, but similar features existed with the Valentines day system, which had a similar set up aloft. We'll have to keep an eye on the potential convection and when hi-res (CAMS) come into range as a confidence booster for this system's QPF/Snow forecast. Current forecast continues to highlight a broad area of 2 to 4 inches of snow along the I-94 and I-90 corridors in MN & WI, with a narrower swath of 4 to 7" possible within the broader area. It's also possible we'll see an initial FGEN band that tracks along the I-94 corridor before another one develops further south driven by the potential convection. This could lead to locally heavier amounts across places like S and SE MN. Thankfully winds will be manageable and the potential for blowing snow concerns appears low for now.
For this weekend & into early next week, the focus will shift back to our west. A trough will dig into the Rockies, which will lead to an active stretch of weather through Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Guidance has continued to bounce around with what the exact evolution of this period will be, but guidance has remained consistent in highlighting several waves traveling through the deep western trough. This is important as it helps increase our confidence that we'll likely see some type of impacts from these waves as they eject into the central Plains. The most interesting one for our area is the first wave to eject out on Sunday. This system will bring an initial burst of heavier FGEN/WAA precipitation on Sunday. Current trends suggest this will be mostly snow, highlighting the potential for several inches of accumulation across southern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin. The second wave ejects Tuesday and takes on a strong negative tilt as it tracks into the upper Mississippi Valley or western Great Lakes region. If it's further east, precipitation chances will likely trend lower, but if it stays further west it could lead to an additional round of precipitation. This system will be potent and very dynamic as it wraps a TROWAL back into the sfc low as it moves northeast on Tuesday. This would likely lead to a period of either rain or wintry mix where ever this feature tracks. Current guidance has begun to trend a bit further east of our area which makes sense given the first wave impacting us directly. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with both systems for the weekend & early next week but it's looking increasingly likely that more significant winter weather will impact the region this weekend.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Skies will remain clear for the first several hours of the period before a SCT-BKN mid-level deck moves in from the northwest. VFR conditions are favored throughout the period, but we'll have to keep an eye on a stratocu deck to our north & east. Southwesterly winds at 10-15 knots tonight, with a period of LLWS through 08-10z. It will generally be westerly between 40-50 knots. Later this morning, winds will become turn northwesterly and increase in speed with sustained values of 15-20 knots and gusts 25 to 30 knots.
KMSP...Have kept LLWS from 06-08Z tonight with a west-southwesterly direction near 45 knots. VFR cigs now appear favored as MVFR cigs remain off to the north/east of MSP. Winds will shift from SW to W to NW by sunrise with gusts up to 30kts likely.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Winds NW 15G25kts.
THU...MVFR/-SN likely. Wind E 5-10 kts.
FRI...IFR/-SN likely. VFR in afternoon. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 343 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated fire weather conditions persist through Wednesday, continuing into Thursday for eastern MN & western WI.
- Accumulating snow coming Thursday evening (western MN) into Thursday night (eastern MN and western WI)
- Potential for a more significant winter storm continues to exist for Sunday through Tuesday next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Overnight temperatures have been mild with the thermal ridge passing overhead. Most sites are in the mid to upper 30s with southwest winds gusting up to 25 mph. The timing of the thermal ridge is not ideal as we'll see cold air advection ramp up after sunrise and persist through the day. Surface temperatures will still rebound into the low to mid 40s with a chance at 50 along I-90 corridor.
Unfortunately for us gusty northwest winds will make it feel similar to this past weekend so dress accordingly. Speaking of the wind situation today, sustained winds 20 to 25 mph with sporadic gusts up to 40 mph will remain just below wind advisory criteria. That also means we'll see yet another day with elevated fire weather conditions across Minnesota and western Wisconsin when adding in low RH values & the brown remnants of last year's vegetation. A secondary cold front comes through tonight with a reinforcing shot of cold air. This will be another dry airmass with our RHs dropping into the mid 20 percent range, but the winds should decrease to keep us at elevated fire weather conditions. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s on Wednesday.
For Thursday and Friday, our next system has continued to slow down in forecast guidance, but it remains likely that we'll see a swath of accumulating snow across Minnesota and Wisconsin by Friday AM.
The heaviest snow now looks to fall Thursday late afternoon into Thursday night for western MN and Thursday night into Friday AM for eastern MN and western WI. The synoptic scale set up is still supportive of seeing a broad area of light precip, with a strong northwest to southeast oriented thermal gradient aloft across MN/WI within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. The widespread light precipitation will be driven by large scale isentropic upglide, but there remains a strong signal for a FGEN induced band of heavier snow that'll track through southern MN.
Another concern is with potential convection over Iowa and along the I-80 corridor. Recent guidance suggests that feature may limit moisture advection and forcing further north, but similar features existed with the Valentines day system, which had a similar set up aloft. We'll have to keep an eye on the potential convection and when hi-res (CAMS) come into range as a confidence booster for this system's QPF/Snow forecast. Current forecast continues to highlight a broad area of 2 to 4 inches of snow along the I-94 and I-90 corridors in MN & WI, with a narrower swath of 4 to 7" possible within the broader area. It's also possible we'll see an initial FGEN band that tracks along the I-94 corridor before another one develops further south driven by the potential convection. This could lead to locally heavier amounts across places like S and SE MN. Thankfully winds will be manageable and the potential for blowing snow concerns appears low for now.
For this weekend & into early next week, the focus will shift back to our west. A trough will dig into the Rockies, which will lead to an active stretch of weather through Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Guidance has continued to bounce around with what the exact evolution of this period will be, but guidance has remained consistent in highlighting several waves traveling through the deep western trough. This is important as it helps increase our confidence that we'll likely see some type of impacts from these waves as they eject into the central Plains. The most interesting one for our area is the first wave to eject out on Sunday. This system will bring an initial burst of heavier FGEN/WAA precipitation on Sunday. Current trends suggest this will be mostly snow, highlighting the potential for several inches of accumulation across southern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin. The second wave ejects Tuesday and takes on a strong negative tilt as it tracks into the upper Mississippi Valley or western Great Lakes region. If it's further east, precipitation chances will likely trend lower, but if it stays further west it could lead to an additional round of precipitation. This system will be potent and very dynamic as it wraps a TROWAL back into the sfc low as it moves northeast on Tuesday. This would likely lead to a period of either rain or wintry mix where ever this feature tracks. Current guidance has begun to trend a bit further east of our area which makes sense given the first wave impacting us directly. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with both systems for the weekend & early next week but it's looking increasingly likely that more significant winter weather will impact the region this weekend.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Skies will remain clear for the first several hours of the period before a SCT-BKN mid-level deck moves in from the northwest. VFR conditions are favored throughout the period, but we'll have to keep an eye on a stratocu deck to our north & east. Southwesterly winds at 10-15 knots tonight, with a period of LLWS through 08-10z. It will generally be westerly between 40-50 knots. Later this morning, winds will become turn northwesterly and increase in speed with sustained values of 15-20 knots and gusts 25 to 30 knots.
KMSP...Have kept LLWS from 06-08Z tonight with a west-southwesterly direction near 45 knots. VFR cigs now appear favored as MVFR cigs remain off to the north/east of MSP. Winds will shift from SW to W to NW by sunrise with gusts up to 30kts likely.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Winds NW 15G25kts.
THU...MVFR/-SN likely. Wind E 5-10 kts.
FRI...IFR/-SN likely. VFR in afternoon. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KEAU CHIPPEWA VALLEY RGNL,WI | 6 sm | 52 min | WSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 32°F | 10°F | 40% | 29.60 | |
KLUM MENOMONIE MUNISCORE FIELD,WI | 22 sm | 13 min | WSW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 9°F | 32% | 29.61 |
La Crosse, WI,
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