Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Altoona, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:07PM Friday August 18, 2017 10:43 PM CDT (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 1:37AMMoonset 4:54PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Altoona, WI
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location: 44.78, -91.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 182331
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
631 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017

Short term (this evening through Saturday)
issued at 413 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017
wave that brought rain to southern mn much of the day is now over
southeast mn, but the cool cloud tops associated with it are all up
by lake superior, well north of where the precip is around southeast
mn, so this area of precip is expected to continue it's diminishing
trend the rest of the afternoon. Right on the heels of this wave is
a much more compact, but stronger wave over northeast south dakota.

This sd wave will be the source of strong to severe storms this
afternoon evening in southwest mn. Expect these storms to more or
less follow the CAPE gradient (where SBCAPE maxes out around 2000
j kg) southeast toward northwest ia, more or less paralleling the
buffalo ridge. Farther east, subsidence on the backside of the first
wave, along with more stable air in its cloud cover will limit
storms from the sd wave from making it much farther east of a
willmar to mankato line. Not only will the first wave limit eastward
coverage of storms from sd, but it will also keep storms in northern
mn, which went up just north of the cloud shield, from making much
progress into central mn. In the end, followed a blend of the cams
pretty close for pop QPF grids through this evening, which has the
best chances running from west central into southwest mn, with
pretty small chances outside of that area.

This activity will move south of the area pretty quick this evening,
with high pressure expected to slide over iowa tonight. This will
leave us with our biggest issue for tonight, the potential for dense
fog. Given where the high is going and where the rain has fallen
today, it is looking increasingly likely that we will see dense fog
across at least southern mn, with the hrrr developing dense fog
pretty much everywhere west if i-35. Beefed up the fog mention in
the grids, and based the fog description (patchy, areas, widespread)
off of the visibility forecast from a blend of the short term models.

For Saturday, once the fog is gone, there will be no issues, with
mainly clear skies and highs in the low 80s expected. The only area
where we could see things play out a bit different is in west
central mn, where highs could get a bit warmer if the thermal ridge
coming across the dakotas gets here faster than currently
forecast.

Long term (Saturday night through Friday)
issued at 413 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017
the main focus in the extended will be a slow moving front that
will stall over the area Sunday night into Monday night, providing
multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure over the mississippi valley will be sliding
southeast into the ohio valley Saturday night. Meanwhile, a
boundary will approach from the northwest as the next trough
advances eastward across canada. A few showers and thunderstorms
are possible along it over western mn late Saturday night, but the
coverage should be limited due to deeper low moisture not
arriving until Sunday afternoon and a strong cap in place with the
eml overhead. The front will be orphaned from the canadian trough
while another system developing over the western high plains
transitions it into a quasi-stationary boundary Sunday. Deeper
moisture with pwats rising above 1.5 inches and continued steep
mid level lapse rates will make it easier to break the cap and
shear is strong enough to organize storms into line segments,
possibly into an upscale growing MCS by Sunday night.

Beyond Sunday night, it's difficult to determine where the front
will be given convective activity from the preceding 24 hours
which lends to a higher level of uncertainty with subsequent
development. But, it does appear the front won't be surging too
far south and even deeper moisture will pool along and south of it
with pwats around 2 inches Monday. The MCS Sunday night may
progress enough eastward for some breaks in the cloud cover here
in time for the eclipse around 1 pm, before more development
occurs later in the afternoon. Continued steep lapse rates and
very high moisture content in the lower atmosphere will allow the
pattern to repeat Monday. The system will shift east Monday night.

Cooler and drier air following next week will solidify a below
average month for temperatures region wide with a deep trough
developing across the northeastern half of the conus.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 621 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017
main concern right now is cluster of thunderstorms impacting rwf
now, and potentially impacting mkt by 02z. This activity will
continue on a southeasterly course, so all other TAF sites in our
service area will avoid the storms. There has been a few showers
across northern and central mn this evening, but those continue to
weaken and are expected to diminish shortly.

A good dense fog setup is in place for tonight, so expect several
taf sites to go down to lifr overnight. Recent rains, calm winds,
and temperatures cooling into the 50s tonight. Fog should mostly
be cleared out by 14z tomorrow morning. Then, tomorrow will be a
vfr day after the fog clears with relatively light southwesterly
winds.

Kmsp... Even msp will be susceptible to fog in this setup. Went
with ism for now but there is potential the visibility could be
lower.

Outlook for kmsp
sun...VFR. Chance MVFR tsra overnight. Wind SW 5 kts.

Mon... Chc MVFR -tsra. Wind SE 5 kts.

Tue... Chc MVFR -tsra early, bcmgVFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Mpg
long term... Borghoff
aviation... Spd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chippewa Valley Regional Airport, WI7 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair65°F61°F87%1012.4 hPa
Menomonie Municipal Airport-Score Field, WI22 mi49 minSW 410.00 miFair64°F61°F93%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from EAU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW7NW11
G19
NW5W8NW4W63W6NW34W4NW8W6W8W8W8W10W7W6SW6W5CalmCalm
1 day agoE20
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SE7E11SE8
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SE8S10S7S8S9SE9SE9S9W8N12
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2 days agoNE5NE4SE7E6E3E6S5SE7SE6SE5E6SE9E8SE10SE12SE14E11E12
G18
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G21
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G20
E17
G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.