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FXUS63 KMPX 011123 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 623 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A break in the rain today before rain returns on Thursday with a chance for thunderstorms.

- The pattern favors warmer and wetter as we head into next week with rain chances Saturday and early next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Today through Friday... Higher pressure moves in behind Tuesday's rain keeping today dry. Not much in the way of advection today with mainly westerly winds, so we should see temperatures in the 60s. We will see at least periods of sun, but without Tuesday's WAA reaching 70 is less likely. On Thursday an upper wave over the northern US Rockies moves into the Upper Midwest. This feature is resolved well in the deterministic models and QPF is widespread amongst all ensemble members. The spread here amongst membership is less will it rain and more how much will it rain. Part of this is related to where convection could form. The challenge for convection is if we will be able to be enough instability for convective initiation to occur. The best chance for this will be in southern Minnesota where it will be warmer. So what are we looking at QPF wise? With a clear source of forcing and NAEFS precipitable water values in the 80th to 90th percentile expect widespread QPF over a quarter inch. Over a half inch likely, especially along and south of I-94. Some more localized locations will see totals more around three quarters to an inch of rain. Some of these higher totals around an inch will depends on heavier showers or thunderstorms to develop, which is not a high confidence part of the forecast at this time. Rain moves out Thursday night into Friday morning with the rain chances largely staying to the north over northern Minnesota. With clouds and evaporative cooling Thursday will be the coolest day of the week with temperatures in 50s.

This weekend into early next week... Temperatures will warm, especially Sunday into early next week. Saturday could be a little cooler, but still in the lower 60s with more cloud cover and a chance of rain as our next wave passes through. Very average precipitable water values on Saturday, so lower PoP and if it does rain chances are it won't be heavy. Ensembles reflect this with a wide spread just in the occurrence of rain at all. A much better chance for rain early next week, but while the chance for rain looks likely there is still considerable spread as to which day it occurs on in ensemble guidance. Setup looks good overall with strong forcing and ample moisture for rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A deck of low IFR stratus will remain across central Minnesota this morning. This low stratus increases in height as you head south with MVFR at terminals like MSP and EAU. Below that is the VFR at MKT. This stratus will persist through the morning, the IFR increasing to MVFR before dissipation is expected, before clearing this evening and remaining VFR tonight. Winds will continue from a westerly direction today before becoming lighter and variable tonight. Rain chances increase tonight, but it is generally past the end of this TAF period.

KMSP... The MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon and clear by the afternoon. Winds will continue from the west this morning shifting to the northwest by this evening and east early Thursday. Rain showers are expected on Thursday with MVFR most likely.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU PM...MVFR/-RA likely with IFR possible. Wind E 10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 15G25 kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA. Wind NW at 10G15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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