Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oconto, WI
March 19, 2024 2:35 AM CDT (07:35 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:54 AM Sunset 7:05 PM Moonrise 1:20 PM Moonset 4:50 AM |
LMZ522 Expires:202403191300;;990921 Fzus53 Kgrb 190619 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 119 am cdt Tue mar 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz521-522-191300- green bay south of line from cedar river to rock island passage and north of a line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- green bay south of line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- 119 am cdt Tue mar 19 2024
Overnight - SW wind 10 to 20 kts with a few gusts to around 25 kts. A slight chance of light snow. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft toward daybreak.
Today - W wind 10 to 20 kts veering nw in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the late morning and afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tonight - NW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. A chance of flurries. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Wednesday - NW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. A chance of flurries in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft late in the afternoon.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 119 am cdt Tue mar 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz521-522-191300- green bay south of line from cedar river to rock island passage and north of a line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- green bay south of line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- 119 am cdt Tue mar 19 2024
LMZ500
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Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 190316 AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1016 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- An upper level disturbance will produce very light snow or flurries tonight across the north. Little or no accumulation is expected.
- Except for Tuesday, below normal temperatures will continue into next weekend.
- Next chance for widespread snowfall is forecast to arrive a little slower with snow overspreading much of the area Thursday evening and continuing into Friday morning. Some differences between the operational models and the NBM probabilities of 3" or more of snow off the DESI on where the heaviest band of snow would set up.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday
Stratus clouds will leave the forecast area during the late afternoon hours as winds back to the west and some drier and milder air arrives from Minnesota. This should provide us with a little sunshine before the sun sets this evening.
An upper level disturbance moving by to our north will bring warm advection, middle clouds and maybe some light snow or flurries across the northern half of the forecast area later tonight. Little or no accumulation is expected.
A cold front will move through the area Tuesday and be accompanied by some clouds but no precipitation. Warm advection ahead of it and downslope winds will make for high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal over all but northcentral Wisconsin.
Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday
After an exceptional mild winter into the first half of March, the weather pattern has changed to a below normal pattern for the next week to ten days. The pattern is also expected to become more active with a system Thursday night and Friday, and then another one with a prolong period of precipitation chances Sunday into next Tuesday. The 500mb northwest flow pattern will gradually shift to a zonal flow this weekend before becoming southwest early next week.
For Tuesday night, gusty northwest winds will continue behind a strong cold front. Very cold air will be filtering southeast into the area. 850mb temperatures will be around 20C, resulting in lake effect snow showers across the far north later in the night which will linger into Wednesday before really dry wipes out the lake effect snow shower activity. High temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees colder than Tuesday. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph will add a chill to the air.
For Wednesday night, high pressure should move across the area allowing for diminishing winds and cold overnight lows. The biggest change to the forecast is on Thursday. Later model trends are slower, thus removed any chance of precipitation. The snow should overspread much of the area Thursday evening, with the lowest chances over the far northeast corner of the state.
The clipper system will swing across the region, south of the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Some of the operational models have the highest axis of snowfall from from near Minneapolis to near Milwaukee. Based off the NBM, the DESI indicated a 40-70% chance of 3+ inches as far north as Rhinelander and Sturgeon Bay. Still being 3 days out, there is a good chance that the axis of heavy snow will still shift.
Friday night through Sunday morning should be tranquil The next system bring precipitation back into the area on Sunday afternoon with precipitation lingering all the way into Tuesday. The precipitation will most likely start out as snow and will likely transition to a wintry mix or rain early next week.
The system moves away from the area on Friday, bringing an end to the snow.
AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1008 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A quick-hitting band of light snow will impact the northeast part of the forecast area through the early overnight hours. The snow will only last for 2 or 3 hours at any given location, but vsbys will drop to MVFR/IFR at times. A cold front will sweep across the region Tuesday morning, bringing gusty northwest winds and stratocumulus clouds with bases mainly between 3500-5000 ft AGL.
The exception will be in far north central WI, where MVFR ceilings and a few flurries may occur Tuesday morning. At least partial clearing will occur later Tuesday afternoon and evening, though BKN-OVC stratocumulus clouds and patchy light lake-effect snow showers or flurries will persist across NC WI.
LLWS will develop ahead of the cold front overnight, then end as the cold front moves through the region Tuesday morning.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1016 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- An upper level disturbance will produce very light snow or flurries tonight across the north. Little or no accumulation is expected.
- Except for Tuesday, below normal temperatures will continue into next weekend.
- Next chance for widespread snowfall is forecast to arrive a little slower with snow overspreading much of the area Thursday evening and continuing into Friday morning. Some differences between the operational models and the NBM probabilities of 3" or more of snow off the DESI on where the heaviest band of snow would set up.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday
Stratus clouds will leave the forecast area during the late afternoon hours as winds back to the west and some drier and milder air arrives from Minnesota. This should provide us with a little sunshine before the sun sets this evening.
An upper level disturbance moving by to our north will bring warm advection, middle clouds and maybe some light snow or flurries across the northern half of the forecast area later tonight. Little or no accumulation is expected.
A cold front will move through the area Tuesday and be accompanied by some clouds but no precipitation. Warm advection ahead of it and downslope winds will make for high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal over all but northcentral Wisconsin.
Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday
After an exceptional mild winter into the first half of March, the weather pattern has changed to a below normal pattern for the next week to ten days. The pattern is also expected to become more active with a system Thursday night and Friday, and then another one with a prolong period of precipitation chances Sunday into next Tuesday. The 500mb northwest flow pattern will gradually shift to a zonal flow this weekend before becoming southwest early next week.
For Tuesday night, gusty northwest winds will continue behind a strong cold front. Very cold air will be filtering southeast into the area. 850mb temperatures will be around 20C, resulting in lake effect snow showers across the far north later in the night which will linger into Wednesday before really dry wipes out the lake effect snow shower activity. High temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees colder than Tuesday. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph will add a chill to the air.
For Wednesday night, high pressure should move across the area allowing for diminishing winds and cold overnight lows. The biggest change to the forecast is on Thursday. Later model trends are slower, thus removed any chance of precipitation. The snow should overspread much of the area Thursday evening, with the lowest chances over the far northeast corner of the state.
The clipper system will swing across the region, south of the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Some of the operational models have the highest axis of snowfall from from near Minneapolis to near Milwaukee. Based off the NBM, the DESI indicated a 40-70% chance of 3+ inches as far north as Rhinelander and Sturgeon Bay. Still being 3 days out, there is a good chance that the axis of heavy snow will still shift.
Friday night through Sunday morning should be tranquil The next system bring precipitation back into the area on Sunday afternoon with precipitation lingering all the way into Tuesday. The precipitation will most likely start out as snow and will likely transition to a wintry mix or rain early next week.
The system moves away from the area on Friday, bringing an end to the snow.
AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1008 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A quick-hitting band of light snow will impact the northeast part of the forecast area through the early overnight hours. The snow will only last for 2 or 3 hours at any given location, but vsbys will drop to MVFR/IFR at times. A cold front will sweep across the region Tuesday morning, bringing gusty northwest winds and stratocumulus clouds with bases mainly between 3500-5000 ft AGL.
The exception will be in far north central WI, where MVFR ceilings and a few flurries may occur Tuesday morning. At least partial clearing will occur later Tuesday afternoon and evening, though BKN-OVC stratocumulus clouds and patchy light lake-effect snow showers or flurries will persist across NC WI.
LLWS will develop ahead of the cold front overnight, then end as the cold front moves through the region Tuesday morning.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI | 21 mi | 48 min | SSW 14G | 33°F | 40°F | 29.72 | 18°F | |
GBWW3 | 25 mi | 48 min | SW 5.1G | 34°F | 29.78 | |||
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI | 34 mi | 56 min | SSE 7G | 32°F | ||||
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI | 35 mi | 48 min | SSW 8G | 29°F | 29.79 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KOCQ OCONTOJ DOUGLAS BAKE MUNI,WI | 3 sm | 20 min | SW 11G15 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 12°F | 43% | 29.74 | |
KMNM MENOMINEE RGNL,MI | 21 sm | 38 min | WSW 07G15 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 16°F | 51% | 29.74 | |
KSUE DOOR COUNTY CHERRYLAND,WI | 24 sm | 39 min | SW 10 | 10 sm | Overcast | 30°F | 23°F | 74% | 29.77 |
Green Bay, WI,
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