Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shorewood, MN
March 19, 2024 1:35 AM CDT (06:35 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:15 AM Sunset 7:27 PM Moonrise 12:43 PM Moonset 4:14 AM |
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 190551 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1251 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated fire weather conditions persist through Wednesday, continuing into Thursday for eastern MN and western WI.
- Accumulating snow coming Thursday afternoon (western MN) into Thursday night (eastern MN and western WI)
- Potential for a larger winter storm continues to exist for Sunday through Tuesday next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The combination of morning clouds and continued northwest winds has resulted in a rather slow temperature increase today, but as high pressure continues to slide to the south, we'll continue to see the winds switch around to the WSW this afternoon. These winds will bring a thermal ridge in tonight, with temperatures not expected to fall far from their afternoon highs today. For Tuesday, the thermal ridge will be shifting into Iowa, with our h85 temperatures cooling through the day. As a result, we did nudge highs down on Tuesday, with the biggest downward nudge occurring in the MN River Valley into south central MN, where a good 5 degrees were taken off the forecast highs for Tuesday. These cooler temperatures will translate into higher RHs, which means despite the gusty winds that are expected (up to 35 mph gusts in western MN), the cooler temps and higher RH will likely keep us from seeing critical fire weather conditions.
Tuesday night, a secondary cold front comes through with a reinforcing shot of cold air. Though RHs will be lower on Wednesday, winds will back off some and with temperatures struggling to reach the low 30s, that should again keep us at elevated for fire weather conditions.
For Thursday and Thursday night, it still looks likely that we'll see a swath of accumulating snow. The main change we've see with the 12z model runs is they slowed down the speed of this system by about 12 hours, pushing the heaviest snow from Thursday afternoon/evening into Thursday evening/night. Because of this big change in the last 12 hours, the NBM PoPs came in a bit lower than preferred as it tried to blend between the faster and slower solutions. We did lower PoPs in the 18-00z window Thursday, then boost them in the 0-6z Friday window, but tonight's run of the NBM should have a much better handle on the PoPs. The large scale pattern is still supportive of seeing widespread precip, with a strong thermal gradient existing across MN/WI within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. This will support a healthy burst of fgen induced snow across southern MN. The big source of uncertainty for this system is the potential for convection on the nose of the LLJ down along the I-80 corridor. How robust this convection ends up being will help determine how strong our forcing ends up being (less convection in Iowa would help our snowfall cause). Still it looks likely that most of the MPX area will see 2-4" of snow, with a narrower swath of 4-7" possible within (kind of like the Valentine's Day snow).
Over the weekend, a trough will dig into the Rockies, which will lead to a rather active period of weather Sunday through Tuesday.
The models are coming around on the idea that we'll see a couple of waves with this western trough. The first on Sunday, with a second, stronger wave on Tuesday. EPS mean h5 heights show a nice negative tilt to the main trough coming up on Tuesday and this should support a very strong and dynamic weather system across the central CONUS for early next week. There's still a good deal of uncertainty with where the precipitation transition zone will exist with both systems, but it is looking increasing likely we will see some significant winter weather impacts to start out the last week of March within the MPX CWA, so stay tuned as details start coming into better view.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Skies will remain clear for the first several hours of the period before a SCT-BKN mid-level deck moves in from the northwest. VFR conditions are favored throughout the period, but we'll have to keep an eye on a stratocu deck to our north & east. Southwesterly winds at 10-15 knots tonight, with a period of LLWS through 08-10z. It will generally be westerly between 40-50 knots. Later this morning, winds will become turn northwesterly and increase in speed with sustained values of 15-20 knots and gusts 25 to 30 knots.
KMSP...Have kept LLWS from 06-08Z tonight with a west-southwesterly direction near 45 knots. VFR cigs now appear favored as MVFR cigs remain off to the north/east of MSP. Winds will shift from SW to W to NW by sunrise with gusts up to 30kts likely.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Winds NW 15G25kts.
THU...MVFR/-SN likely. Wind E 5-10 kts.
FRI...IFR/-SN likely. VFR in afternoon. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1251 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Elevated fire weather conditions persist through Wednesday, continuing into Thursday for eastern MN and western WI.
- Accumulating snow coming Thursday afternoon (western MN) into Thursday night (eastern MN and western WI)
- Potential for a larger winter storm continues to exist for Sunday through Tuesday next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The combination of morning clouds and continued northwest winds has resulted in a rather slow temperature increase today, but as high pressure continues to slide to the south, we'll continue to see the winds switch around to the WSW this afternoon. These winds will bring a thermal ridge in tonight, with temperatures not expected to fall far from their afternoon highs today. For Tuesday, the thermal ridge will be shifting into Iowa, with our h85 temperatures cooling through the day. As a result, we did nudge highs down on Tuesday, with the biggest downward nudge occurring in the MN River Valley into south central MN, where a good 5 degrees were taken off the forecast highs for Tuesday. These cooler temperatures will translate into higher RHs, which means despite the gusty winds that are expected (up to 35 mph gusts in western MN), the cooler temps and higher RH will likely keep us from seeing critical fire weather conditions.
Tuesday night, a secondary cold front comes through with a reinforcing shot of cold air. Though RHs will be lower on Wednesday, winds will back off some and with temperatures struggling to reach the low 30s, that should again keep us at elevated for fire weather conditions.
For Thursday and Thursday night, it still looks likely that we'll see a swath of accumulating snow. The main change we've see with the 12z model runs is they slowed down the speed of this system by about 12 hours, pushing the heaviest snow from Thursday afternoon/evening into Thursday evening/night. Because of this big change in the last 12 hours, the NBM PoPs came in a bit lower than preferred as it tried to blend between the faster and slower solutions. We did lower PoPs in the 18-00z window Thursday, then boost them in the 0-6z Friday window, but tonight's run of the NBM should have a much better handle on the PoPs. The large scale pattern is still supportive of seeing widespread precip, with a strong thermal gradient existing across MN/WI within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. This will support a healthy burst of fgen induced snow across southern MN. The big source of uncertainty for this system is the potential for convection on the nose of the LLJ down along the I-80 corridor. How robust this convection ends up being will help determine how strong our forcing ends up being (less convection in Iowa would help our snowfall cause). Still it looks likely that most of the MPX area will see 2-4" of snow, with a narrower swath of 4-7" possible within (kind of like the Valentine's Day snow).
Over the weekend, a trough will dig into the Rockies, which will lead to a rather active period of weather Sunday through Tuesday.
The models are coming around on the idea that we'll see a couple of waves with this western trough. The first on Sunday, with a second, stronger wave on Tuesday. EPS mean h5 heights show a nice negative tilt to the main trough coming up on Tuesday and this should support a very strong and dynamic weather system across the central CONUS for early next week. There's still a good deal of uncertainty with where the precipitation transition zone will exist with both systems, but it is looking increasing likely we will see some significant winter weather impacts to start out the last week of March within the MPX CWA, so stay tuned as details start coming into better view.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Skies will remain clear for the first several hours of the period before a SCT-BKN mid-level deck moves in from the northwest. VFR conditions are favored throughout the period, but we'll have to keep an eye on a stratocu deck to our north & east. Southwesterly winds at 10-15 knots tonight, with a period of LLWS through 08-10z. It will generally be westerly between 40-50 knots. Later this morning, winds will become turn northwesterly and increase in speed with sustained values of 15-20 knots and gusts 25 to 30 knots.
KMSP...Have kept LLWS from 06-08Z tonight with a west-southwesterly direction near 45 knots. VFR cigs now appear favored as MVFR cigs remain off to the north/east of MSP. Winds will shift from SW to W to NW by sunrise with gusts up to 30kts likely.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Winds NW 15G25kts.
THU...MVFR/-SN likely. Wind E 5-10 kts.
FRI...IFR/-SN likely. VFR in afternoon. Wind N 5-10 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KFCM FLYING CLOUD,MN | 9 sm | 42 min | SW 11G21 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 9°F | 32% | 29.73 | |
KMIC CRYSTAL,MN | 13 sm | 42 min | SSW 12G20 | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 9°F | 30% | 29.71 | |
KMSP MINNEAPOLISST PAUL INTL/WOLDCHAMBERLAIN,MN | 18 sm | 42 min | SW 13G26 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 7°F | 29% | 29.75 | |
KCFE BUFFALO MUNI,MN | 22 sm | 20 min | SW 13 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 34°F | 9°F | 34% | 29.69 | |
KANE ANOKA COUNTYBLAINE (JANES FIELD),MN | 23 sm | 20 min | SSW 10G14 | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 9°F | 30% | 29.69 |
Minneapolis, MN,
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