Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 3:20 AM   Moonset 3:20 PM

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FXUS63 KMPX 041052 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 552 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers this morning. Rainfall amounts of a tenth to a quarter of an inch expected.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms likely Monday night into Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Rain showers continue to slowly spread eastwards out of western Minnesota overnight. The MCS over Nebraska has taken on a more easterly track into Iowa, meaning the trend towards heavier precipitation & possible thunderstorms over southern Minnesota no longer is expected. Most locations will see between a tenth to a quarter inch of rain as the band of showers north of the convective complex migrates east across the area. A few hours of rain is expected, with the rain ending by mid-morning across central MN, late morning/early afternoon for eastern Minnesota, & by mid-afternoon for western Wisconsin. Skies will slowly clear out after the rain, so a sunny afternoon or early evening still looks salvageable for areas east of the St. Croix River.
The rain and clouds will keep temperatures cool this afternoon, generally around 60 degrees.

Drier, sunny, & warm weather is expected Sunday into Monday as high pressure moves over the region. High temperatures around low 70 are likely, potentially warming into the mid to upper 70s Monday with some compressional warming possible ahead of an approaching front. Winds will be relatively light on Sunday with the high overhead, but increase through the day on Monday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of the approaching front.
Southeasterly winds could gust as high as 40-50 mph late Monday afternoon & evening across western Minnesota, in response to the surface low deepening into the low 980s mb over the northern Plains.

A band of showers an thunderstorms is expected to develop along the front extending ahead of this deepening surface low, with ensemble guidance showing a very high likelihood (>90%) of precipitation occurring across the entire area. Strong dynamics will be present with this system with surface winds gusting to 40-50 mph along of the front & bulk shear values of 50-60 kts.
However, instability will be lacking this far north across the Dakotas & western Minnesota, further exacerbated by the fact that the model consensus brings the front & thunderstorms through the area late Monday night & overnight into Tuesday morning. The threat for damaging winds isn't negligible given the strong background surface winds, but for now the severe threat looks to mainly develop across the central Plains & mid- Mississippi valley. Ensemble guidance generally shows rainfall amounts between 0.5-1" across the entire area, mainly owing to the forecast quick progression of the storms across the area.
Amounts over an inch are still possible if the system slows somewhat between now & Monday night. In general, thunderstorms & another soaking rain look a like a sure bet Monday night.

Beyond Tuesday, the upper-air pattern remains active as the upper-level low responsible for the Monday-Tuesday system stalls out, & potential becomes cutoff over the Great Lakes. A number of weak disturbances pivot around this broad area of low pressure as a result, meaning multiple chances for generally light rain through the end of the week. Model consensus in timing any of these disturbances is low so a generic broad ~30% chance for rain exists pretty much exists for Wed-Fri.
Temperatures will be cooler as well with lower heights over the region, with daytime highs generally in the low 60s. The upper- level low finally exits the Great Lakes region over the weekend, with likely a return to drier & more seasonable weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Rain showers are ending across western Minnesota & continue to spread across the area this morning, impacting central & eastern MN through early to mid- morning & western WI mid- morning into early afternoon. Predominately low- end MVFR visibility & ceilings are expected with the rain, although periods of IFR conditions are possible. MVFR ceilings will linger for a few hours after the rain ends, with ceilings eventually rising & clearing out through the afternoon. Winds will generally be northerly to northwesterly between 5-10 kts, with some gusts up to 20kts during the morning through mid- afternoon. Winds drop below 5 kts after sunset with clear skies overnight.

KMSP...Rain is expected to start between 6-7 AM with visibility down to 3 miles & ceilings around 1000 ft expected. Brief IFR conditions are possible during the heaviest rain, more likely as lower ceilings as opposed to visibility. The rain will end around noon with MVFR ceilings lingering into mid-afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN PM...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.
MON...VFR. MVFR/-TSRA likely late. Wind SE 20G35 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 15G25 kts.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there).

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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