Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 5:54PM Thursday February 22, 2018 8:29 PM CST (02:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:45AMMoonset 12:11AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood, MN
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location: 44.94, -93.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 230003
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
603 pm cst Thu feb 22 2018

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 327 pm cst Thu feb 22 2018
snow is advancing northeastward into southwestern minnesota this
afternoon. It will reach just about all of the southern half of
minnesota and western wisconsin by 6 or 7 pm. Light to moderate
snow will persist area wide through midnight, then begin to end
from southwest to northeast. The steady snow will end in
southwest mn around 1 am and the i-94 corridor by around 4 am.

During this process of drying in the mid levels, there could be a
period of freezing drizzle following the end of accumulating snow
due to continued saturation in the low levels. However, this will
be brief and little or no ice accumulation is expected.

Models are in pretty good agreement with QPF tonight. There could
be some mesoscale banding in places and hi-res guidance is hinting
at streaks of higher QPF snowfall. However, on a widespread basis
we should expect about 3 inches across southern mn where the
period of accumulating snow will be shortest, to 4 to 6 inches
across the remainder of the forecast area. The current winter
weather advisory configuration looks good, so no changes were
needed to that.

Drier air will make for a relatively pleasant day Friday with
some decrease in clouds possible.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 327 pm cst Thu feb 22 2018
Friday night and early Saturday look good, but the next system is
fast on the heels of tonight's system and will begin arriving
Saturday afternoon. This system will be neutrally tilted to start
Friday night over the plains, but will trend more negative
Saturday and Saturday night as it passes across the upper midwest.

This lends to a higher confidence event with widespread significant
snow accumulations. 12z GFS is most bullish quickest with the mid
level wave closing off and results in a strong cyclone centered
over the southeast corner of mn late Saturday evening. Models have
been slowly trending toward this solution. In addition, the gfs
deterministic run is right in the middle of the spread of slp qpf
in the GEFS solutions, with the lowest member still showing at
least 0.6" of QPF at msp. Thus, confidence in 6 inch amounts is
pretty high from south central mn to northwest wi and totals could
approach 12 inches somewhere in that corridor. Snowfall rates will
be impressive with an inch or two per hour possible during the
height of the event. As for wind, the rapidly deepening low
center passing by could be occurring a little too late for the
wind to respond and increase to critical levels for blizzard
conditions. Therefore, blizzard conditions are still questionable,
but certainly not impossible if gusts can increase 5 to 10 mph
above what is currently forecast.

Given that we're within a 48 hour window of the snow beginning,
and the degree of confidence present, have issued a winter storm
watch for most of the CWA except for far western mn. It's
possible those counties will be included later if confidence
increases for greater than 6 inches. All told, it's likely most of
the CWA will see over 12 inches between tonight's snow and
Saturday's, and some could exceed 15 inches.

Much more tranquil weather follows for early next week, but there
are signs of another system for late next week that will need to
be watched.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 547 pm cst Thu feb 22 2018
snow has been battling the dry air this afternoon, hence it's
later than advertised arrival, but the dry layer is quickly being
eaten away, with snow hitting the ground. Only had minor changes
to the going tafs, with timing lined up similar to what the hrrr
is showing. Main change is looking at upstream obs, 3 4sm is the
prevailing vis, with some scattered 1 2sm vis, so trended the
tafs that direction with prevailing 3 4sm and tempo 1 2sm vis.

Still expecting a widespread 3-5 inches, with snow mostly done by
12z. Lower confidence with cig trends behind the snow, but we
could certainly clear out faster than tafs currently indicated,
but played the improvements a bit more conservative until we have
a better feel of how quickly skies will improve in the wake of the
snow.

Kmsp... Based on the hrrr, looks like the vast majority of the
snow, along with the potential rates of around 3 4" per hour will
come between 4z and 7z. This is also the window where some vis
down to 1 2sm will be possible. Friday morning, skies may goVFR
shortly after the winds go SW and we could seeVFR conditions as
early as 15z.

Outlook for kmsp
sat...VFR early. Then ifr sn with lifr possible in aftn and
overnight. Significant snow accums possible. Wind ene 5-15 kts.

Sun... Chc MVFR cigs. Wind W 10-20 kts.

Mon...VFR. Win SW 5-10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
night for wiz014>016-023>028.

Winter weather advisory until 9 am cst Friday for wiz014>016-
023>028.

Mn... Winter weather advisory until 6 am cst Friday for mnz041-042-
047>049-051-057>060-062-066>070-076>078-085.

Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
night for mnz043>045-049>053-057>063-066>070-076>078-084-
085-093.

Winter weather advisory until 9 am cst Friday for mnz043>045-050-
052-053-061-063.

Winter weather advisory until 3 am cst Friday for mnz054>056-064-
065-073>075-082>084-091>093.

Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
night for mnz056-064-065-073>075-082-083-091-092.

Short term... Borghoff
long term... Borghoff
aviation... Mpg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN8 mi37 minE 91.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist26°F21°F84%1026.4 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN13 mi37 minE 81.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F21°F88%1026.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN18 mi37 minE 101.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist26°F25°F96%1027.1 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN22 mi35 minNE 81.50 miLight Snow24°F20°F87%1025.4 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN22 mi35 minE 83.00 miLight Snow27°F24°F91%1025.7 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN23 mi35 minE 101.00 miSnow27°F23°F86%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3SE5CalmNE3NE5E4E5NE5SE4E4E6E4E8SE10SE8E6E6E10E9E12E12E9
1 day agoW12
G17
NW11NW9W8W8W5W4SW5W5SW4SW4W4SW9SW5SW5SW4S6SW7SW7SW8S5S4S5Calm
2 days agoNE9N12
G17
NE9NE5NE7N45N4N11N6NW7NW7W10N7W8W11W11NW13W12
G21
W10
G19
W9W12
G20
W10NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.