Thursday, January24, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 5:12PM Thursday January 24, 2019 4:30 AM CST (10:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:48PMMoonset 10:07AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood, MN
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location: 44.94, -93.55     debug

Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 240952
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
352 am cst Thu jan 24 2019

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 353 am cst Thu jan 24 2019
a powerful cold front with a building area of surface high pressure
behind it was responsible for strong winds, blowing snow, and
blizzard conditions across western minnesota. Winds are a bit
lighter than earlier forecast across southern minnesota, so have
cancelled the blizzard warning and replaced it with a winter weather
advisory since this is more of drifting snow event, and not so much
blowing snow with reduced visibility. Meanwhile eastern minnesota
and western wisconsin had lighter winds but still falling
temperatures from this cold front. To get an idea of the cold air
advection, kmpx measured -4c at 850mb in the 00z raob, and rap
forecast predict that it will measure around -15c in this mornings
12z raob.

This cold air advection will continue to produce strong winds
throughout the morning, but they should gradually taper off during
the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will steadily fall
throughout the day, and overnight lows will bottom out in the teens
below zero. Winds will become very light as well, so that will keep
wind chill values warmer than -35f.

On Friday a weak clipper system will bring a chance for some light
snow along the minnesota river valley. At this point it looks more
like flurries, but did include some slight chance pops for Friday
morning. Temperatures on Friday will warm into the single digits for
most locations.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)
issued at 353 am cst Thu jan 24 2019
if you like snow and cold then the long term forecast will make
you smile. The start of the upcoming week starts off with the
potential for a plowable snow as a clipper packing a punch
stronger than normal dips across the area, followed by a surge of
the coldest air we have seen this winter season.

In the meantime, the weekend looks to begin on a quiet note, with
returning southwest flow aiding in a 5-10 degree moderation in
temperatures from Friday to Saturday.

On Sunday we begin to experience the impacts associated with the
aforementioned clipper, although there was a 6 hour difference in
snow onset timing between the 24.00z solutions of the GFS and
ecmwf (with the faster GFS bringing snow to the area as early as
Sunday afternoon). Did lean toward the GFS superblend solution,
but may need to shift the onset time into the evening if the
ecmwf trends look to be holding. The trough deepens over us on
Monday, with snow continuing and winds becoming blustery.

Increased the forecast winds from superblend given the forecast
pressure gradient falls. Blowing snow and visibility reductions
could be a concern again on Monday, particularly for prone areas
of western and southern mn. The progged synoptics of this system
look similar to the archetype for a clipper that bring 6+ inches
of snow to the forecast area, so expect more than just a cosmetic
snowfall we typically receive with a clipper.

On the heels of the system the north central CONUS is invaded by a
surge of arctic air. Surface high temperatures (for all models
combined) are 4-6 standard deviations below normal for Tuesday
and Wednesday, which indicates the potential for an extraordinary
event. Will be tough to break the temperature records, given they
range around -15 to -20 for highs and -30 to -40 for lows, but
sub-zero highs look to be pretty much a slam dunk for Wednesday,
along with lows well into the -20s. As of now, wind chills in the -35
to -50 range are a decent bet area-wide for Wednesday and Thursday.

That all being said, forecast temperatures 6-7 days out often
modify with the airmass (as happened with this current event), so
have leaned conservatively with forecast temperatures at this

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1152 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019
visibilities are dropping quickly across western mn due to
strengthening winds and blowing snow. Expecting lifr conditions or
lower at axn, rwf, mkt later tonight into Thursday morning. A band
of snow may bring some MVFR visibilities further east with the
arctic front. Very cold and dry air will arrive Thursday morning
which will scour out any remaining stratus.

Kmsp... MVFR CIGS will continue into mid morning Thursday. Some
light snow is likely later tonight, with little or no

Outlook for kmsp
fri...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.

Sat...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts
sun... MVFR ifr with sn late. Ese at 10g20 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Wind chill advisory from 6 pm this evening to 9 am cst Friday
for wiz014>016-023>028.

Mn... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for mnz065-

Wind chill advisory from noon today to 9 am cst Friday for

Winter weather advisory until noon cst today for mnz041-042-048-

Wind chill advisory until 9 am cst Friday for mnz041>044-047>051-

Winter weather advisory from 9 am this morning to 3 pm cst this
afternoon for mnz047-054>056-064-073.

Blizzard warning until 9 am cst this morning for mnz047-054>056-

Short term... Jrb
long term... Ls
aviation... Borghoff

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN8 mi37 minNW 103.00 miLight Snow19°F12°F77%1011.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN13 mi37 minNW 104.00 miLight Snow18°F12°F81%1011 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN18 mi37 minWNW 135.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist19°F15°F84%1011.1 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN22 mi35 minWNW 95.00 miLight Snow20°F15°F82%1009.5 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN22 mi55 minno data3.00 miLight Snow17°F12°F82%1010.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN23 mi35 minWNW 103.00 miLight Snow19°F15°F86%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW5NW6CalmCalm3CalmW5W7W5W6SW9SW8SW4CalmS4S4S4S3CalmSW3NW7NW7NW8
1 day agoE8E6SE6E5E4CalmCalmCalmNW5NW7NW8N7NW7N5NW4NW4NW3NW5NW6NW7NW5SW3CalmNW6
2 days agoSE10SE11SE10SE10SE14SE16SE15SE14SE14SE20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.