Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gardiner, MT
March 19, 2024 7:24 AM MDT (13:24 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:25 AM Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 12:55 PM Moonset 4:25 AM |
Area Discussion for - Billings, MT
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FXUS65 KBYZ 190742 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 142 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
DISCUSSION
Today through Wednesday night...
The upper ridge over the west has pushed south, with the center of the high now sitting over northern California. This handled very well by models. At the same time, a sharp trough was deepening over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. This has set up northwest flow over Montana and northern Wyoming. This northwest flow has introduced some cooler air courtesy of a cold front that pushed through the area Monday afternoon and evening.
The cooler air will get reinforced today with a series of weak waves moving across southeast Montana, turning low level flow northeast. High temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler from readings on Monday with maxes in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The cool down will continue on Wednesday, with 850mb cold advection as low level flow remains east to northeast. Biggest impact on temperatures will be over eastern zones, with 850mb temperatures sliding below 0C. Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 60s west, to upper 30s east.
The forecast will be dry today but low clouds will increase tonight as some Pacific Northwest moisture starts to overrun the low level cold air moving in from the northeast. A band of light snow is progged to form by the GFS (and to a certain extent the ECMWF) north and northeast of Billings (generally from near Roundup to near Forsyth) late tonight. This band looks to extend eastward toward Miles City and Baker on Wednesday, before gradually lifting north Wednesday night. GFS produces around 0.10 of liquid in this band, which would translate into around an inch of snowfall from north of Forsyth to just north of Miles City to around Baker. A second area of rain and snow showers is progged over south central zones (from Billings west) and just south of the main band of light snow in southeast Montana (south of Miles City toward Alzada). This area of precipitation is expected to be much lighter (on the order of a couple hundredths). This initial event of light snow will set the stage for a prolonged period of colder weather with waves of snow from Thursday into early next week (see extended discussion below). TWH
Thursday through Tuesday...
An unsettled pattern will continue into next week with daily chances for precipitation. Temperatures Thursday have trended warmer than previous model runs, so precip is likely rain (outside of the mountains) during daytime hours, becoming mixed precip overnight and mostly snow by Friday morning.
A shortwave ridge is possible Friday into Saturday, however, a low pressure center setting up over central Wyoming on Saturday will bring another round of precip. Coupled with 850 mb winds becoming N/NE, upslope flow will bring snowfall over the mountains and foothills. Saturday and Sunday look like the best days for accumulating snow. In the table below, see the current 48 hour probabilities for snow totals Saturday through Sunday.
2+" 4+" 6+" ------------------------------------- Livingston 50% 20% 5% Big Timber 70% 40% 15% Red Lodge 80% 50% 30% Billings 70% 40% 20% Hardin 60% 25% 10% Sheridan 30% 15% 5% Miles City 70% 40% 20% Baker 80% 55% 30% Broadus 45% 20% 5%
Monday into next week is still uncertain for exact timing and extent of winter impacts. However, most models agree on a continued unsettled pattern, with a trough axis dropping through the state.
High temperatures Thursday will be in the 30s over the northeast, increasing to 50s over the rest of the region. Highs will cool into the weekend, with 30s to low 40s Friday and Saturday and 20s to mid 30s Sunday. The unsettled pattern will keep temps below seasonal normals, with highs in the 30s to low 40s into early next week. Archer
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will gradually shift to northeast today. Winds will gust to 20-25 kts near KBHK and KSHR this afternoon through evening. Overnight into tomorrow morning, ceilings over KBHK and KMLS will gradually decrease. Archer
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 062 032/057 031/054 025/035 023/036 019/029 014/031 0/U 00/B 38/O 76/S 68/S 87/S 43/S LVM 062 033/062 037/054 029/043 025/041 022/034 016/035 0/U 00/B 37/R 55/O 68/S 86/S 43/S HDN 062 031/057 028/051 023/037 021/041 016/031 013/034 0/U 11/B 38/O 77/S 77/S 96/S 43/S MLS 056 026/042 025/038 019/029 019/031 014/024 009/026 0/B 14/S 46/O 45/S 76/S 85/S 22/S 4BQ 061 031/055 028/048 023/036 020/039 017/029 011/031 0/U 01/B 23/O 54/S 64/S 74/S 32/S BHK 051 021/034 019/034 014/027 012/026 010/023 005/024 0/B 05/S 56/S 33/S 76/S 85/S 22/S SHR 064 029/060 030/054 024/040 021/047 018/034 013/036 0/N 00/U 16/O 75/S 45/O 75/S 43/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 142 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
DISCUSSION
Today through Wednesday night...
The upper ridge over the west has pushed south, with the center of the high now sitting over northern California. This handled very well by models. At the same time, a sharp trough was deepening over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes. This has set up northwest flow over Montana and northern Wyoming. This northwest flow has introduced some cooler air courtesy of a cold front that pushed through the area Monday afternoon and evening.
The cooler air will get reinforced today with a series of weak waves moving across southeast Montana, turning low level flow northeast. High temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler from readings on Monday with maxes in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The cool down will continue on Wednesday, with 850mb cold advection as low level flow remains east to northeast. Biggest impact on temperatures will be over eastern zones, with 850mb temperatures sliding below 0C. Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 60s west, to upper 30s east.
The forecast will be dry today but low clouds will increase tonight as some Pacific Northwest moisture starts to overrun the low level cold air moving in from the northeast. A band of light snow is progged to form by the GFS (and to a certain extent the ECMWF) north and northeast of Billings (generally from near Roundup to near Forsyth) late tonight. This band looks to extend eastward toward Miles City and Baker on Wednesday, before gradually lifting north Wednesday night. GFS produces around 0.10 of liquid in this band, which would translate into around an inch of snowfall from north of Forsyth to just north of Miles City to around Baker. A second area of rain and snow showers is progged over south central zones (from Billings west) and just south of the main band of light snow in southeast Montana (south of Miles City toward Alzada). This area of precipitation is expected to be much lighter (on the order of a couple hundredths). This initial event of light snow will set the stage for a prolonged period of colder weather with waves of snow from Thursday into early next week (see extended discussion below). TWH
Thursday through Tuesday...
An unsettled pattern will continue into next week with daily chances for precipitation. Temperatures Thursday have trended warmer than previous model runs, so precip is likely rain (outside of the mountains) during daytime hours, becoming mixed precip overnight and mostly snow by Friday morning.
A shortwave ridge is possible Friday into Saturday, however, a low pressure center setting up over central Wyoming on Saturday will bring another round of precip. Coupled with 850 mb winds becoming N/NE, upslope flow will bring snowfall over the mountains and foothills. Saturday and Sunday look like the best days for accumulating snow. In the table below, see the current 48 hour probabilities for snow totals Saturday through Sunday.
2+" 4+" 6+" ------------------------------------- Livingston 50% 20% 5% Big Timber 70% 40% 15% Red Lodge 80% 50% 30% Billings 70% 40% 20% Hardin 60% 25% 10% Sheridan 30% 15% 5% Miles City 70% 40% 20% Baker 80% 55% 30% Broadus 45% 20% 5%
Monday into next week is still uncertain for exact timing and extent of winter impacts. However, most models agree on a continued unsettled pattern, with a trough axis dropping through the state.
High temperatures Thursday will be in the 30s over the northeast, increasing to 50s over the rest of the region. Highs will cool into the weekend, with 30s to low 40s Friday and Saturday and 20s to mid 30s Sunday. The unsettled pattern will keep temps below seasonal normals, with highs in the 30s to low 40s into early next week. Archer
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will gradually shift to northeast today. Winds will gust to 20-25 kts near KBHK and KSHR this afternoon through evening. Overnight into tomorrow morning, ceilings over KBHK and KMLS will gradually decrease. Archer
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 062 032/057 031/054 025/035 023/036 019/029 014/031 0/U 00/B 38/O 76/S 68/S 87/S 43/S LVM 062 033/062 037/054 029/043 025/041 022/034 016/035 0/U 00/B 37/R 55/O 68/S 86/S 43/S HDN 062 031/057 028/051 023/037 021/041 016/031 013/034 0/U 11/B 38/O 77/S 77/S 96/S 43/S MLS 056 026/042 025/038 019/029 019/031 014/024 009/026 0/B 14/S 46/O 45/S 76/S 85/S 22/S 4BQ 061 031/055 028/048 023/036 020/039 017/029 011/031 0/U 01/B 23/O 54/S 64/S 74/S 32/S BHK 051 021/034 019/034 014/027 012/026 010/023 005/024 0/B 05/S 56/S 33/S 76/S 85/S 22/S SHR 064 029/060 030/054 024/040 021/047 018/034 013/036 0/N 00/U 16/O 75/S 45/O 75/S 43/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Airport Reports
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Billings, MT,
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