Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:03 AM

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FXUS65 KBYZ 270328 AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 928 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

DISCUSSION
Rest of Today through Sunday...

Persistent upslope flow with with low shear (less than 20 kts) has produce persistent rain showers just west of Billings the entire morning. The lack of winds aloft has allowed these to be very slow moving showers and allowed areas of precipitation to accumulate relatively fast, with some radar estimates up to an inch from ROberts through Absarokee this morning. Even the Paradise Valley is getting in on the action, with at least half an inch of rain being reported as of noon near Emigrant. Rain will slowly shift west and dissipate through the rest of today and tonight as the upslope flow weakens and high pressure builds into the area for Saturday. That said, the snow in the mountains will persist longer, mainly for locations above 7500 ft.

High pressure on Saturday will bring a halt to the precipitation for most of the area (excluding the higher peaks in the mountains)
and highs reaching into the low 60s will bring about a relatively mild day. A second upper low looks to take an extremely similar path to the one today. This means that again, far southeast MT will see little to no rain, with it just staying across the border into the Dakotas. And similar to today, sout-central MT (mainly west of Billings) will see a pacific wave bring another shot of rain and snow to the area (snow still above 7500 ft and rain below), but amounts are much lower compared to today).

All in all, still looking at an additional 0.2-0.4" of rain for the lower elevations of south-central MT through the weekend, and 6-12" of snow for the higher elevations in the Beartooths and Crazies. Areas at and east of BIllings (including Sheridan County, WY and the Bighorns) keep trending drier and look to receive minimal amounts of precipitation. Areas that still have a 60-80% chance of getting at least 0.25" of rain this weekend are locations west of Laurel.

Vertz

Monday through Friday...

A pattern of unsettled weather will continue for much of the extended period. Monday afternoon will be the best chance (40-70%)
at widespread precipitation. Lower elevations have a 20-40% chance of a quarter inch of rain with higher elevations at about a 50-70% chance. The western mtns have about a 30-60% chance of getting at least 3 inches of snow. SE MT also has a chance of getting thunderstorms during this time which will be something to watch as it approaches. Ensembles generally keep an unsettled pattern through Wednesday, but start to differ in the latter part of the week on whether or not ridging will make its way in. The NBM keeps PoPs of around 20-40% for the region Tuesday through Friday. High temperatures will be in the 60s Monday, slightly cooling into the 50s/60s Tuesday- Wednesday and then warming back into the 60s and 70s for the remainder of the period. TS

AVIATION

Rain and snow showers (mainly light and west of KBIL) will gradually diminish and shift further west through the night. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible under any heavy showers, especially in the western foothills (K6S0, KLVM, K3HT). Mountains obscurations can be expected. Chambers

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 042/064 043/064 044/066 038/060 037/059 038/067 042/069 22/W 14/W 27/W 63/W 23/W 22/W 23/W LVM 041/059 040/059 039/059 030/054 033/054 032/062 038/064 93/W 66/W 38/T 53/W 23/W 12/W 34/W HDN 041/066 040/065 041/070 038/062 036/062 036/069 041/072 21/B 02/W 26/W 72/W 33/W 22/W 33/W MLS 040/063 038/061 037/067 040/059 036/060 038/064 041/069 10/U 00/B 02/W 61/N 22/W 11/B 22/W 4BQ 041/061 038/060 037/067 039/060 036/059 037/066 042/070 11/B 11/B 02/W 51/N 22/W 11/B 21/U BHK 038/059 035/053 032/064 037/057 033/059 034/059 035/064 20/U 12/W 01/U 62/W 23/W 21/B 22/W SHR 039/060 035/060 037/067 034/060 033/058 033/066 039/069 42/W 13/W 14/W 62/W 33/W 22/W 22/W

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 AM MDT Sunday FOR ZONES 67-68.
WY...None.

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