Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gardiner, MT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 4:42PM Thursday December 13, 2018 2:03 PM MST (21:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:13PMMoonset 10:49PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gardiner, MT
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location: 45.05, -110.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Billings, MT
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Fxus65 kbyz 131646
afdbyz
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service billings mt
946 am mst Thu dec 13 2018

Update
Winds are gusting into the lower 60s along the western foothills
this morning at livingston and nye. Expect winds to increase
through the day and this evening as 700mb winds increase aloft and
pressure gradients tighten. Have raised winds a bit from big
timber north through harlowton for today. Otherwise, the forecast
looks to be in good shape. The previous forecast discussion and an
updated aviation discussion are below. Stp

Short term Valid for tdy and fri...

winds have decreased in livingston and nye a bit as surface
pressure gradient resets for the next round of wind. The gradient
does flatten in relation to the southwest valleys this morning, so
do expect winds to ramp back up well into advisory criteria. Gfs
advertises a surface pressure difference from idaho falls to
lewistown getting to around 19 mb, which is a little less than the
tightest gradient Tuesday evening. 700mb winds are not progged
nearly as strong either. That being said, the low to mid levels of
the atmosphere are more stable compared to 24 hours ago. So,
firmly believe winds will crank up big time again at livingston
and nye and approach 70 mph tonight. The gradient backs off a
little on Friday, but local guidance was pointing to advisory
winds hanging on Friday into Friday night. Decided to extend the
high wind warning through Friday night. The vast majority of the
rest of this event will be at advisory level, but winds will
approach 70 mph, especially tonight, so wanted to just leave the
warning in place and not confuse things by dropping down to an
advisory.

Big timber has had wind gusts to 55 mph early this morning. This
gradient does not look quite a flat as the gradient of 24 hours
ago, and this should support winds at big timber staying strong
today and tonight. The winds aloft are not as strong as yesterday,
so will just bump winds up and not issue a highlight at this
time. The plains will be breezy today, but not as windy as Tuesday
since 850 mb wind were quite a bit weaker (35kts compared to
50kts). Building heights expected today and tomorrow, so will not
have any pops in the forecast. The next shortwave trough moves
toward the western zones Friday night with some moisture and
ascent, so will add pops to the southwest mountains then. Twh

Long term Valid for sat... Sun... Mon... Tue... Wed...

while the ECMWF ensembles showed some uncertainty in the upcoming
extended pattern, the deterministic models were in fairly good
agreement. The surface pressure patterns, however, were not always
in decent agreement which led to some uncertainty as to how strong
winds would be in the gap areas and foothills. That being said,
the week did not look nearly as windy as recent days have been.

An upper trough will move E through the area on Saturday, bringing
a chance of snow to the SW mountains. Upper ridging with dry
weather will then build over the area through Sunday night. The
flow aloft turns SW ahead of the next trough on Monday, and the
trough crosses the area mon. Night through Tuesday. The trough
will bring another slight chance of snow showers to the sw
mountains. Chances for mountain snow showers continue through
Wednesday night as a more zonal flow overtakes the area. Thursday
looked dry with the next upper ridge over the region. Temperatures
will be above normal through the period, in the 40s and 50s.

While breezy conditions are expected at times over western areas,
relative humidities stay high enough to keep rangeland fire
concerns at bay. Arthur

Aviation
Wsw surface winds will increase over klvm through 18z today with
gusts of 50 kt approaching 60 kt late this morning and this
afternoon. Winds will remain strong and gusty tonight over klvm.

Gusty winds will also extend eastward from the klvm area to the
k6s0 area and along the beartooth absaroka foothills through
tonight. Otherwise, expectVFR conditions today through tonight.

Arthur rms

Preliminary point temp pops
Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue wed
-------------------------------------------------------
bil 044 029 049 033 051 029 050 032 053 033 051 036 053
0 N 00 u 00 b 00 u 00 u 11 u 11 n
lvm 038 024 046 032 045 027 048 030 049 028 045 032 047
0 N 00 N 11 N 10 N 00 N 11 N 21 n
hdn 045 023 051 027 051 022 050 024 053 027 052 031 054
0 u 00 u 00 b 00 u 00 u 11 u 11 b
mls 039 024 043 025 044 021 041 022 043 026 045 031 047
0 u 00 u 01 b 00 u 00 u 01 u 11 b
4bq 040 024 044 027 046 023 044 024 046 027 047 030 049
0 u 00 u 00 b 00 u 00 u 01 u 11 b
bhk 039 026 046 028 046 023 043 024 044 027 045 030 047
0 u 00 u 01 b 00 u 00 u 01 u 11 b
shr 044 021 051 027 050 022 051 025 052 025 050 028 052
0 u 00 u 00 b 00 u 00 u 01 u 01 b

Byz watches warnings advisories
Mt... High wind warning in effect until 5 am mst Saturday for zones
65-66.

Wy... None.

Weather.Gov billings


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Yellowstone, MT32 mi73 minSW 1210.00 miOvercast18°F14°F86%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from WYS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7
G12
5
G18
W5
G10
4SW8SW11CalmSW4SW5SW6SW5Calm5SW7
G15
SW11
G17
SW7SW9S5S7
G12
S7
G12
SW13SW7SW9SW7
G13
1 day agoSW17SW14
G24
SW10SW14SW4
G10
SW12
G20
SW15
G21
SW11
G17
SW9
G16
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G23
SW18
G28
SW21
G30
S15
G23
S13
G19
SW15S11SW6CalmSW74SW7S9SW7W7
G12
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4CalmSW4CalmCalmSW5SW6SW8
G16
SW5
G12
SW13SW12
G18
SW15
G20
SW16
G22
SW13SW11
G19
S12SW8
G15
SW8
G13
SW13SW11SW14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Billings, MT (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Billings, MT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.