Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gardiner, MT
May 16, 2024 3:22 PM MDT (21:22 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 8:52 PM Moonrise 12:57 PM Moonset 2:10 AM |
FXUS65 KBYZ 162029 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 229 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Friday night...
A few showers were moving into the NW zones this afternoon on radar imagery. Temperatures were in the 60s and 70s, well on their way to the forecast highs, and winds were gusting into the 20s in many areas due to deep mixing and strong WNW flow aloft. Surface CAPES were 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon with Bulk Effective Shear around 40 kt this afternoon and evening. PWAT's will be .5-.8 inches. There was not a lot of lift into tonight, but any perturbation will create showers and thunderstorms. PoPs will be low, 20-30%, mainly E of KBIL after 00Z and will decrease rapidly after 06Z Friday. Given the above, any storms will have the potential for gusty winds and small hail, and the HRRR did show a few weak helicity tracks over the area.
Friday into Friday night will be windy and unsettled as a cyclonically curved jet moves through the area with good divergence. Strong shortwave trough will accompany the jet, as well as a cold front with strong 700 mb frontogenesis. Highest MUCAPES will be around 500 J/kg with Bulk Effective Shear around 40 kt E of KBIL. PWAT's will be .5-.9 inches. Combination of the above will bring high chances (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon, with slightly lower PoPs in the evening. Highest PoPs will be around KBIL into Rosebud County in the afternoon. PoPs quickly decrease overnight. HRRR showed more helicity tracks Fri. afternoon than there will be today and the tracks were stronger. So strong storms, with gusty winds and hail, along with heavy rainfall are possible Fri.
afternoon and evening, mainly E of KBIL.
The other issue will be how windy it gets, especially W of KBIL.
Soundings supported Advisory level winds in KLVM, so have issued Wind Advisory from 18Z Fri.-06Z Saturday for them. Strong pressure rises will cross the forecast area in the afternoon and evening behind the cold front. Soundings and cross-sections showed good mixing down of at least 45 kt winds, and signatures for mountain waves in areas from Judith Gap to K6S0. Noted the WSUP viewer trended higher with probabilities of wind gusts of at least 48 kt compared to yesterday. Given this dynamic system, have also issued a High Wind Watch from 18Z Fri.-06Z Sat. for the Judith Gap to K6S0 areas, including Melville. The mountain wave possibility looked the best during the late afternoon through the evening. It will be cooler on Fri., except near 80 in the SE ahead of the cold front. Snow amounts will be light over the mountains through the period. Arthur
Saturday through Thursday...
As cyclonic flow moves east and westerly flow moves in, the region can expect mild and breezy conditions for Saturday. The remainder of the period looks to remain unsettled with multiple rounds of disturbances providing increased chances of precipitation.
There does seem to be a lack of any good push of moisture into the area as PWATs actually fall below normal for much of the period. Into Sunday, ensembles have a shortwave trough moving into the west, bringing precip chances of around 30-60% in lower elevations with a 60-80% chance in the mountains. Chances for a quarter inch of rain Sunday and Monday look to be best (40-60%)
for Billings down to Sheridan, WY and west, with places east at a 20-30% chance. Brief ridging will build in for Tuesday with only small chances for precip. Ensembles and clusters then depict lowering heights moving into western MT sometime late Wednesday into Thursday with timing currently differing amongst models.
High temperatures will be in the 60s and low 70s through the period. TS
AVIATION
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon with brief MVFR conditions possible under a thunderstorm.
Wind gusts of up to 40-45 kts are possible at KLVM, K1KM, and K6S0 Friday afternoon into the early evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop around 18Z Friday around KBIL and spread east into the evening. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible under any thunderstorms producing heavy rain. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 049/072 042/066 043/062 041/063 041/067 044/067 045/058 28/T 50/U 16/T 45/T 12/R 13/T 46/T LVM 046/067 036/066 042/058 035/059 036/064 042/063 040/055 16/T 20/N 17/T 45/T 12/R 25/T 57/T HDN 048/075 040/068 040/066 040/063 040/068 042/070 043/062 39/T 70/U 14/R 44/T 22/R 13/R 45/T MLS 050/074 042/066 042/067 042/063 040/066 043/067 044/060 37/T 50/U 12/R 32/T 11/B 12/R 34/R 4BQ 051/080 042/066 042/070 041/062 040/065 042/070 045/063 25/T 50/U 01/B 32/R 22/R 12/R 23/R BHK 048/077 039/065 039/070 039/062 038/062 039/066 040/060 36/T 50/N 11/B 32/R 12/R 12/R 33/R SHR 048/079 036/066 040/068 036/059 035/064 039/070 041/064 25/T 60/U 03/T 44/T 23/R 22/T 35/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory in effect from noon Friday to midnight MDT Friday night FOR ZONE 65.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 229 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Friday night...
A few showers were moving into the NW zones this afternoon on radar imagery. Temperatures were in the 60s and 70s, well on their way to the forecast highs, and winds were gusting into the 20s in many areas due to deep mixing and strong WNW flow aloft. Surface CAPES were 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon with Bulk Effective Shear around 40 kt this afternoon and evening. PWAT's will be .5-.8 inches. There was not a lot of lift into tonight, but any perturbation will create showers and thunderstorms. PoPs will be low, 20-30%, mainly E of KBIL after 00Z and will decrease rapidly after 06Z Friday. Given the above, any storms will have the potential for gusty winds and small hail, and the HRRR did show a few weak helicity tracks over the area.
Friday into Friday night will be windy and unsettled as a cyclonically curved jet moves through the area with good divergence. Strong shortwave trough will accompany the jet, as well as a cold front with strong 700 mb frontogenesis. Highest MUCAPES will be around 500 J/kg with Bulk Effective Shear around 40 kt E of KBIL. PWAT's will be .5-.9 inches. Combination of the above will bring high chances (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon, with slightly lower PoPs in the evening. Highest PoPs will be around KBIL into Rosebud County in the afternoon. PoPs quickly decrease overnight. HRRR showed more helicity tracks Fri. afternoon than there will be today and the tracks were stronger. So strong storms, with gusty winds and hail, along with heavy rainfall are possible Fri.
afternoon and evening, mainly E of KBIL.
The other issue will be how windy it gets, especially W of KBIL.
Soundings supported Advisory level winds in KLVM, so have issued Wind Advisory from 18Z Fri.-06Z Saturday for them. Strong pressure rises will cross the forecast area in the afternoon and evening behind the cold front. Soundings and cross-sections showed good mixing down of at least 45 kt winds, and signatures for mountain waves in areas from Judith Gap to K6S0. Noted the WSUP viewer trended higher with probabilities of wind gusts of at least 48 kt compared to yesterday. Given this dynamic system, have also issued a High Wind Watch from 18Z Fri.-06Z Sat. for the Judith Gap to K6S0 areas, including Melville. The mountain wave possibility looked the best during the late afternoon through the evening. It will be cooler on Fri., except near 80 in the SE ahead of the cold front. Snow amounts will be light over the mountains through the period. Arthur
Saturday through Thursday...
As cyclonic flow moves east and westerly flow moves in, the region can expect mild and breezy conditions for Saturday. The remainder of the period looks to remain unsettled with multiple rounds of disturbances providing increased chances of precipitation.
There does seem to be a lack of any good push of moisture into the area as PWATs actually fall below normal for much of the period. Into Sunday, ensembles have a shortwave trough moving into the west, bringing precip chances of around 30-60% in lower elevations with a 60-80% chance in the mountains. Chances for a quarter inch of rain Sunday and Monday look to be best (40-60%)
for Billings down to Sheridan, WY and west, with places east at a 20-30% chance. Brief ridging will build in for Tuesday with only small chances for precip. Ensembles and clusters then depict lowering heights moving into western MT sometime late Wednesday into Thursday with timing currently differing amongst models.
High temperatures will be in the 60s and low 70s through the period. TS
AVIATION
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon with brief MVFR conditions possible under a thunderstorm.
Wind gusts of up to 40-45 kts are possible at KLVM, K1KM, and K6S0 Friday afternoon into the early evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop around 18Z Friday around KBIL and spread east into the evening. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible under any thunderstorms producing heavy rain. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 049/072 042/066 043/062 041/063 041/067 044/067 045/058 28/T 50/U 16/T 45/T 12/R 13/T 46/T LVM 046/067 036/066 042/058 035/059 036/064 042/063 040/055 16/T 20/N 17/T 45/T 12/R 25/T 57/T HDN 048/075 040/068 040/066 040/063 040/068 042/070 043/062 39/T 70/U 14/R 44/T 22/R 13/R 45/T MLS 050/074 042/066 042/067 042/063 040/066 043/067 044/060 37/T 50/U 12/R 32/T 11/B 12/R 34/R 4BQ 051/080 042/066 042/070 041/062 040/065 042/070 045/063 25/T 50/U 01/B 32/R 22/R 12/R 23/R BHK 048/077 039/065 039/070 039/062 038/062 039/066 040/060 36/T 50/N 11/B 32/R 12/R 12/R 33/R SHR 048/079 036/066 040/068 036/059 035/064 039/070 041/064 25/T 60/U 03/T 44/T 23/R 22/T 35/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory in effect from noon Friday to midnight MDT Friday night FOR ZONE 65.
WY...None.
Billings, MT,
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