Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marinette, WI
March 19, 2024 5:56 AM CDT (10:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:54 AM Sunset 7:05 PM Moonrise 1:18 PM Moonset 4:50 AM |
LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 506 Am Cdt Tue Mar 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Wednesday afternoon - .
Today - W wind 10 to 20 kts veering nw in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight - NW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. A chance of flurries. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday - NW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. A chance of flurries in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft late in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - NW wind 10 to 20 kts. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ500
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 191015 AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 515 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- Colder tonight and Wednesday with highs on Wednesday 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Light lake effect snow tonight into Wednesday morning far north with an inch or less of snow, mainly northern Vilas County.
- Widespread snowfall is forecast to impact the area from Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Probabilities of 3 inches or greater of snow have increased to the 60-90% range.
Central to east-central WI have the highest chances of minor impacts.
- Another strong system could provide wintry weather late in the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Wednesday
Relatively quiet in the short term. Main weather issue will be some light lake effect snow this evening into Wednesday morning over north-central Wisconsin.
Sheared out shortwave digs into western portion of mean troughing present from central Canada to the Great Lakes. Surface low over northwest Ontario early today will deepen a bit down to 995mb as it shifts to east of Lake Superior this afternoon. Cold front tied to the low sweeps across Wisconsin later this morning through the afternoon. Temps may still reach the mid to upper 40s near around 50 from central into east-central Wisconsin while NW flow behind the cold front will keep the far north mainly stuck in the mid to upper 30s.
The cold front will be lacking moisture for most part, but developing colder and blustery NW flow (gusts to 30 mph later today) will advect low-level moisture across northern Wisconsin late today through tonight. Though far from ideal in terms of wind direction, the chilling NW flow (H85 temps down to less than -15c tonight)
crossing western Lake Superior (water temps 36F/2C) combined with upslope lift will bring scattered snow showers to northern portions of Vilas and Forest counties. Not looking at much snow accumulation though, mainly less than an inch through Wednesday morning before snow showers end later on Wednesday. Temps will drop back below normal tonight with lows as chilly as around 10 above in the Northwoods. Below normal on Wednesday with readings in the low 20s north and only as warm as the lower 30s for east- central areas.
Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Monday
The latest ensemble means indicate a rather amplified upper air pattern will be present across North America over the next week. It will consist of ridging over Alaska and downstream troughing centered over western Hudson Bay. This will be a colder pattern than has been typical this cold season. The colder temps will set the stage for the potential of a couple winter systems to impact the region, namely from Thursday night into Friday and also late in the upcoming weekend.
Thursday night into Friday...Northern stream shortwave energy will be digging southeast across south-central Canada and the far northern Plains during this period. Backing flow ahead of the shortwave in conjunction with the right rear quad of an upper jet will provide the forcing for an over-running/frontogenesis event across Wisconsin. Forcing isn't particularly strong considering the 10 to 15 kts of flow aloft, but could briefly become strong when upper and lower level forcing mechanisms overlap. Temps will also be sufficiently cold for minor lake enhancement along the Lake Michigan shoreline, but 1000-850mb flow of 5-10 kts will probably limit any enhancement to one row of counties inland.
In general over the past 24 to 48 hours, there has been an upward trend in the qpf over central to east-central Wisconsin in all of the ensemble means. The GFS ensemble paints the highest qpf, mostly due to a more amplified solution and generates upwards of a half inch of liquid equivalent. That seems rather excessive given moisture will be of pacific origin and the low amplitude nature of the shortwave. Snow ratios of 12 to 15 to 1 seem possible given the cold airmass of this system.
Putting it all together, a 3 to 5 inch snowfall looks possible from after midnight on Friday through Friday afternoon. The Friday morning commute looks to have significant impacts from the snow.
Since the region has not received significant snow in a long while, wonder if impacts will be higher and more equivalent to the first snowfall of the season.
Late in the weekend...A large, slow moving trough will be working east across the western half of the CONUS. This trough will bring precip back into Wisconsin from Sunday into early in the following week. Significant precip looks possible, but thermal profiles suggests ptypes will be quite complicated to pin down over subsequent days.
AVIATION
for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 514 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
A cold front will sweep across the region by early this afternoon.
Ahead of the front, lingering low-level wind shear will persist through 13-15z especially east-central terminals (GRB, ATW and MTW). Once the front passes, plan on gusty northwest winds and stratocumulus clouds with bases mainly between 3500-5000 ft AGL.
The exception will be in far north-central WI, where MVFR ceilings and a few flurries may occur later this morning into this afternoon.
Partial clearing may occur later this afternoon into tonight, though BKN-OVC stratocu with patchy light lake-effect snow showers or flurries are expected at times over NC WI, including at RHI.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 515 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance
KEY MESSAGES
- Colder tonight and Wednesday with highs on Wednesday 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Light lake effect snow tonight into Wednesday morning far north with an inch or less of snow, mainly northern Vilas County.
- Widespread snowfall is forecast to impact the area from Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Probabilities of 3 inches or greater of snow have increased to the 60-90% range.
Central to east-central WI have the highest chances of minor impacts.
- Another strong system could provide wintry weather late in the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Wednesday
Relatively quiet in the short term. Main weather issue will be some light lake effect snow this evening into Wednesday morning over north-central Wisconsin.
Sheared out shortwave digs into western portion of mean troughing present from central Canada to the Great Lakes. Surface low over northwest Ontario early today will deepen a bit down to 995mb as it shifts to east of Lake Superior this afternoon. Cold front tied to the low sweeps across Wisconsin later this morning through the afternoon. Temps may still reach the mid to upper 40s near around 50 from central into east-central Wisconsin while NW flow behind the cold front will keep the far north mainly stuck in the mid to upper 30s.
The cold front will be lacking moisture for most part, but developing colder and blustery NW flow (gusts to 30 mph later today) will advect low-level moisture across northern Wisconsin late today through tonight. Though far from ideal in terms of wind direction, the chilling NW flow (H85 temps down to less than -15c tonight)
crossing western Lake Superior (water temps 36F/2C) combined with upslope lift will bring scattered snow showers to northern portions of Vilas and Forest counties. Not looking at much snow accumulation though, mainly less than an inch through Wednesday morning before snow showers end later on Wednesday. Temps will drop back below normal tonight with lows as chilly as around 10 above in the Northwoods. Below normal on Wednesday with readings in the low 20s north and only as warm as the lower 30s for east- central areas.
Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Monday
The latest ensemble means indicate a rather amplified upper air pattern will be present across North America over the next week. It will consist of ridging over Alaska and downstream troughing centered over western Hudson Bay. This will be a colder pattern than has been typical this cold season. The colder temps will set the stage for the potential of a couple winter systems to impact the region, namely from Thursday night into Friday and also late in the upcoming weekend.
Thursday night into Friday...Northern stream shortwave energy will be digging southeast across south-central Canada and the far northern Plains during this period. Backing flow ahead of the shortwave in conjunction with the right rear quad of an upper jet will provide the forcing for an over-running/frontogenesis event across Wisconsin. Forcing isn't particularly strong considering the 10 to 15 kts of flow aloft, but could briefly become strong when upper and lower level forcing mechanisms overlap. Temps will also be sufficiently cold for minor lake enhancement along the Lake Michigan shoreline, but 1000-850mb flow of 5-10 kts will probably limit any enhancement to one row of counties inland.
In general over the past 24 to 48 hours, there has been an upward trend in the qpf over central to east-central Wisconsin in all of the ensemble means. The GFS ensemble paints the highest qpf, mostly due to a more amplified solution and generates upwards of a half inch of liquid equivalent. That seems rather excessive given moisture will be of pacific origin and the low amplitude nature of the shortwave. Snow ratios of 12 to 15 to 1 seem possible given the cold airmass of this system.
Putting it all together, a 3 to 5 inch snowfall looks possible from after midnight on Friday through Friday afternoon. The Friday morning commute looks to have significant impacts from the snow.
Since the region has not received significant snow in a long while, wonder if impacts will be higher and more equivalent to the first snowfall of the season.
Late in the weekend...A large, slow moving trough will be working east across the western half of the CONUS. This trough will bring precip back into Wisconsin from Sunday into early in the following week. Significant precip looks possible, but thermal profiles suggests ptypes will be quite complicated to pin down over subsequent days.
AVIATION
for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 514 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
A cold front will sweep across the region by early this afternoon.
Ahead of the front, lingering low-level wind shear will persist through 13-15z especially east-central terminals (GRB, ATW and MTW). Once the front passes, plan on gusty northwest winds and stratocumulus clouds with bases mainly between 3500-5000 ft AGL.
The exception will be in far north-central WI, where MVFR ceilings and a few flurries may occur later this morning into this afternoon.
Partial clearing may occur later this afternoon into tonight, though BKN-OVC stratocu with patchy light lake-effect snow showers or flurries are expected at times over NC WI, including at RHI.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI | 1 mi | 68 min | SSW 12G | 33°F | 40°F | 29.56 | 16°F | |
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI | 14 mi | 76 min | S 8G | 33°F | ||||
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 35 mi | 116 min | S 4.1 | 33°F | 29.65 | |||
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI | 43 mi | 68 min | SW 11G | 33°F | 29.64 | |||
GBWW3 | 44 mi | 68 min | SW 4.1G | 34°F | 29.62 |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KMNM MENOMINEE RGNL,MI | 4 sm | 59 min | WSW 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 34°F | 12°F | 40% | 29.58 | |
KSUE DOOR COUNTY CHERRYLAND,WI | 19 sm | 60 min | WSW 15G21 | 10 sm | Overcast | 34°F | 14°F | 44% | 29.59 | |
KOCQ OCONTOJ DOUGLAS BAKE MUNI,WI | 23 sm | 21 min | WSW 10G18 | 10 sm | Overcast | 34°F | 9°F | 34% | 29.57 |
Green Bay, WI,
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