Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marinette, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:21PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 5:11 AM CST (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:20PMMoonset 4:37AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 350 Am Cst Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm cst this afternoon through Wednesday morning...
Today..NW wind 5 to 10 kts backing W 10 to 15 kts mid-day, then backing sw 15 to 25 kts in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..W wind 15 to 25 kts veering nw in the late evening and overnight. Gusts to 30 knots possible. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle in the evening.
Wednesday..N wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Partly Sunny.
Wednesday night..NE wind 10 to 15 kts veering E 5 to 10 kts after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of flurries after midnight.
LMZ521 Expires:201811201715;;580673 FZUS53 KGRB 200950 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 350 AM CST Tue Nov 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-201715-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marinette, WI
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location: 45.09, -87.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 200930
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
330 am cst Tue nov 20 2018
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Wednesday
issued at 328 am cst Tue nov 20 2018
the main forecast concerns are precipitation trends and type this
afternoon and evening.

Cyclonic north flow was still producing flurries over central and
east central wi early this morning, and lake-effect snow showers
and flurries continued over vilas county. The light precipitation
should taper off over the next several hours as a ridge of high
pressure pushes in from the west. Sky cover was a bit chaotic
early this morning, but clearing had occurred over a large part
of far northeast wi.

There should be a break in the precipitation and partial clearing
this morning, as the surface ridge moves through the state. A
clipper low pressure system is forecast to track north of the
forecast area this afternoon and evening, with the main upper
dynamics also staying to our north. However there will be some
weak forcing, as 850 mb WAA occurs this afternoon, followed by a
cold frontal passage during the evening. Some of the initial waa
forcing will be wasted in the early afternoon due to substantial
dry air in the 900-800 mb layer, but enough saturation should
occur for light snow and freezing drizzle from mid-afternoon to
at least mid-evening. Shallowing moisture will result in a loss
of ice crystals in the saturated layer in the late afternoon and
evening, leading to the threat of freezing drizzle, and possible
light ice accumulations in some areas. Snow accumulations should
be a dusting to half inch in most places, with perhaps and inch or
so across vilas county.

Subsidence and continued shallowing of the moisture layer should
cause precipitation to taper off by midnight, except in far north
central wi, where light lake-effect will continue overnight. The
arrival of another canadian high pressure system should bring
partial clearing and cold temperatures to region on Wednesday.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
issued at 328 am cst Tue nov 20 2018
mean flow is expected to be progressive during this part of the
forecast with two pacific systems to impact northeast wi. The
first system is set to arrive late Friday into at least Saturday
morning with temperatures warm enough for either rain or a
rain snow mix. The second system is forecast to arrive late this
weekend into early next week, be stronger than its predecessor and
has more timing movement issues that will need to be resolved.

Temperatures with this second system to also be colder, thus more
snow potential. Temperatures to briefly go above normal Friday and
Saturday before falling below normal by next Monday.

High pressure is expected to move from western ontario into
southeast ontario Wednesday night and allow for winds to veer
northeast. 8h temperatures around -16c would be sufficient for
lake effect snow showers over lake mi, however with inversion
heights at 4k feet and winds slowly veering through the night, it
may be difficult for snow showers to align long enough to generate
anything more than isolated snow showers or simply flurries. The
rest of the forecast to be mostly cloudy and dry with min
temperatures to range from around 5 above zero far north, around
20 degrees near lake mi.

As the surface high reaches the eastern great lakes on
thanksgiving day, winds will continue to veer to the southeast and
begin to tap some 'milder' air. Meanwhile, models bring a modest
upper ridge axis into the western great lakes region late on
Thursday. An increase in waa, coupled with low inversion heights,
may keep more clouds across northeast wi than sunshine. Max
temperatures for Thursday to be in the upper 20s north, lower 30s
south.

The pressure gradient is expected to tighten over the great lakes
between the high pressure over the eastern CONUS and a trough of
low pressure over the central conus. The prevailing south winds
into wi should continue the WAA pattern, but time sections show a
dry layer in the lower levels of the atmosphere, thus have kept
the forecast area dry for Thursday night. Under partly to mostly
cloudy skies, look for min temperatures to not be nearly as cold
as previous nights. Readings should only fall a couple of degrees
with middle to upper 20s north, upper 20s to around 30 degrees
south. Clouds are forecast to increase on Friday ahead of an
advancing mid-level shortwave trough and surface cold front.

Models are still having timing issues with the GFS already
spreading light rain across most of northeast wi Friday afternoon,
while the gem and ECMWF have the light rain just reaching western
wi by 00z Saturday. The progressive nature of the mean flow would
favor the gfs, thus do not want to discount this model just yet.

For now, will bring chance pops into central wi Friday afternoon
and keep eastern wi dry through the day. MAX temperatures to be
above normal (for a change) with around 40 degrees north, lower to
middle 40s south.

Precipitation does appear likely for Friday night as the shortwave
trough pushes east into the western great lakes and the trailing
cold front reaches the upper ms valley. The precipitation would
initially be all rain, but as temperatures drop, anticipate a
transition to a rain snow mix then all snow from west to east. The
only exception would be east-central wi where a mix would continue
through the overnight hours. The model differences persist into
Saturday as the faster GFS exits the system, while the gem ecmwf
still have the shortwave trough moving through wi followed by the
cold front. Precipitation type will transition back to all rain
from east-central to north-central wi with a mix returning late in
the day to north-central wi. Due to these model timing issues, it
is too early to determine snow accumulation numbers between
Friday night and Saturday morning. MAX temperatures for Saturday
to be in the upper 30s north-central wi, lower 40s east-central
wi.

Models are still trying to get a handle on the second system due
to arrive Sunday into Monday. While the models do agree with the
movement from the southern plains Sunday morning to the eastern
great lakes Monday afternoon, the GFS is much stronger,
vertically-stacked and has a more broad precipitation shield than
the other models. The GFS would also bring an accumulating snow to
much of northeast wi Sunday night into Monday. The gem and ecmwf
are not as strong with this system and do not generate as much
precipitation across wi (focusing more on the southern half of the
state). Since this system is still over the pacific, expect the
models to change their solutions several times in the coming days.

Therefore, have followed the model consensus which brings low to
moderate chance pops into the forecast area for both Sunday and
Monday. Precipitation types will also waffle between rain and
snow on Sunday, but turn more to snow on Monday as colder air gets
pulled into wi behind the system.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1045 pm cst Mon nov 19 2018
mostly cloudy skies and flurries continue across the area tonight.

Despite models trying to clear out skies across the region, there
is little evidence for this clearing in satellite imagery that
will make it over the area anytime soon. Therefore will go much
more pessimistic with cloud cover through the overnight hours
given the substantial cloud deck in place. Conditions will bounce
around betweenVFR and MVFR overnight with the snow showers.

There may be some clearing Tuesday morning before a clipper system
brings light snow and the chance for freezing drizzle Tuesday
afternoon to north-central and central wisconsin. Again will leave
the freezing drizzle out of the tafs as its chance of happening is
fairly small. This system will once again bring MVFR conditions to
north-central and central wisconsin, with these conditions
possible across east-central wisconsin Tuesday evening.

Gusty southwest winds to around 20 knots are also expected Tuesday
during the day ahead of this clipper system.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kieckbusch
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 1 mi42 min WNW 6 G 11 17°F 40°F1022.2 hPa1°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 14 mi32 min NW 14 G 18 20°F 1021.3 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 35 mi32 min NW 6 G 8.9 22°F 1021.7 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 43 mi42 min NNW 2.9 G 6 21°F 1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI3 mi16 minNNW 310.00 miFair11°F8°F88%1025.1 hPa
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI21 mi16 minNNW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds19°F10°F71%1024.8 hPa

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NW3NW4W4W5N7N6N8N6N5N9N9NE8N10N5N5N4N4NE7N4N4N3NW3NW3
1 day agoW4W4SW5W6W11
G14
--W9W8
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W7W6W6W43W3SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW4NW4N6N8N115
G14
NW5NW6NW6N65CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.