Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 11:55 PM   Moonset 6:55 AM

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FXUS61 KCAR 270423 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1223 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will cross the region into Saturday then slowly exit to the east later Saturday into Sunday. A warm front will cross the region Sunday. A cold front will cross the region later Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will approach from the west Tuesday and track south of the Gulf of Maine into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Update...
Clear skies across the region a this hour. Current temperatures were ranging from the upper 20s across the north and the mid 30s Downeast. Current forecast in good shape so no changes.

Previous discussion: High pressure will continue to influence the region tonight and Saturday. For tonight, upper air model soundings show a very dry column with a shallow inversion. Calm winds and clear skies will help temps drop into the 20s across the region. By Saturday, the high pressure starts to move off to the east as the next low pressure system crosses the Great Plains. The majority of the day will be sunny with light winds and temps in the low 60s. By the evening, clouds will start building in from the west with the approaching low.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A weak warm front approaches Saturday night with increasing mid/high level cloudiness, although it should remain mainly dry Saturday night. Lows Sunday AM will fall into the mid to upper 30s. Models are in somewhat better agreement by Sunday that an approaching weakening short wave and cold front will bring a few showers into far northern portions of the region during Sunday afternoon. Afternoon highs on Sunday will top out in the lower 60s for most areas, except cooler along the coast with the wind off the water. A weak cold front will cross the region Sunday night, with a lingering evening shower possible, mainly for northern and eastern portions of the area. Temperatures will fall back into the low 40s for most areas except some upper 30s in the North Woods.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Surface high pressure over Quebec province will briefly ridge across northern Maine into Monday, with dry conditions. Monday will feature light northerly winds that may gust at times 15-20mph. Modeled soundings showing the mixed layer up 900-850mb so opted to lower Td's a little resulting in lower RHs.
Expecting RHs in the 35-40% range across the Central Highlands northward into Northern Maine. Downslope winds off the Longfellow Mtns and Baxter Region will result in mid 60s across the Greater Bangor area. Elsewhere in Central Highlands and Downeast expecting low 60s with upper 50s across the North. Low pressure will track to the north of the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Moisture will begin to increase along a frontal boundary to our west later Monday night and Tuesday.
This will bring the chance for showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is some model uncertainties with the possibility surface ridging to our North may shunt the precip southward.
Given this uncertainty did opt to lower POPs slightly below what NBM suggests. Looks like upper ridge may build back by mid week with a possible trend toward drier conditions. Another weak system could bring more showers by late next week. Afternoon highs are expected to be near to a bit below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, and then above by Thursday. By Friday, another large storm system will track into the Great Lakes while a warm front lifts north into Maine suggesting another chance of showers across the area. No widespread significant rainfall is expected in the long term but chance of precip seems possible nearly everyday.

AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR overnight and Saturday. Light and variable wind overnight and Saturday morning, becoming S/SE around 5 knots late in the day.

SHORT TERM: Sun...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA at northern terms. VCSH at southern terms. S winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 20kt.

Mon...VFR. N winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt.

Tue...VFR south, MVFR north. -SHRA possible. E-NE winds 5-15kt.

Wed...VFR/MVFR. VCSH/-SHRA SE winds 5-10kt.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA conditions tonight and Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below SCA conditions through midweek.
Slight chance of showers Sun night across the eastern most waters. Chance of showers Tue into Wed. Seas generally 1-2ft with perhaps up to 3ft 20-25nm offshore on Wed. Sea surface temperatures generally 40-43F from the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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Quaco Bay
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Sat -- 02:41 AM ADT     8.21 meters High Tide
Sat -- 06:15 AM ADT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM ADT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:04 AM ADT     1.13 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 03:09 PM ADT     7.75 meters High Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM ADT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:18 PM ADT     1.66 meters Low Tide
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Quaco Bay, New Brunswick, Tide feet

Rothesay
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Sat -- 04:21 AM ADT     2.28 meters High Tide
Sat -- 06:17 AM ADT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM ADT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:39 AM ADT     1.91 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 04:45 PM ADT     2.25 meters High Tide
Sat -- 08:26 PM ADT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:45 PM ADT     1.92 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rothesay, New Brunswick, Tide feet

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