Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 3:27 AM   Moonset 3:21 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KCAR 040719 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain over the area today and tonight. An occluded front will approach on Sunday and cross the area Sunday night. High pressure will return Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure will approach on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
We will remain in a narrow corridor of high pressure, both surface and aloft today, between a low well to our southeast and an occluded front approaching from the west. An initial band of moisture pushing out ahead of the front will slide into our region during the day today. However, moisture from this band will thin out as it pushes over the ridge and collapses under subsidence from the ridging. The effect for our weather will be clouds moving in today, then thinning for breaks of sunshine later this afternoon as upper level moisture dissipates.

High pressure surface and aloft will be over the area tonight bringing a partly cloudy night. Some patchy low stratus may form again late tonight with some isolated areas of fog possible over the central or southern valleys. Otherwise, tonight will be dry and tranquil.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Models are in pretty good agreement for this ptn of the fcst.
Sun will begin ptly sunny, then become cldy and breezy in the Aftn as a s/wv an weakening warm occluded frontal zone begins to apch from the W. Shwrs and rn from this system will msly occur ovr the Rgn durg Sun Ngt with most areas receiving 0.10 to 0.20 inches, warranting max PoPs in the ovrngt hrs now in the categorical range.

Most rn/shwr activity ovr our FA will move E of the FA by late Mon Morn. The tmg of a of a fairly strong secondary cold front and associated s/wv from Hudson Bay now appears to be after 00z Tue, likely to late for after diurnal max htg for any sig additional shwrs and isold tstms. The warmest air in the llvls will arrive durg by Mon Aftn allowing temps to get well into the 60s, perhaps even near 70 ovr inland low trrn lctns.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Any isold to wdly sct shwrs will move E of the FA behind a secondary cold front by late Mon Eve, with the rest of Mon Ngt and Tue looking to be fair, breezy and cooler, with some llvl cold advcn SC cld cvr likely ovr Nrn/Ern areas late Tue Morn into Aftn. Under Can sfc high pres, Tue Ngt looks to be fair with dmnshg winds and cool spcly Nrn areas with good radiational cooling.

Wed will start ptly cldy ovr the Rgn, then turn msly cldy from the W as another weakening occluded sfc low and s/wv alf system apchs from the Midwest. Shwrs from this system are potentially could impact our FA Wed Ngt, but longer range models are not in good agreement on tmg or rnfl totals durg this tm frame, and on whether followup s/wvs will cont to bring additional shwrs from Thu Aftn thru Fri. The result is a long mention of chc shwrs into the late week with low confidence as to what day/ngt pd will actually receive appreciable rnfl. Subsequently max PoPs were kept in the high chc range. Longer range models are in a little more agreement on possible more sig rnfl toward the weekend, currently just beyond this fcst domain. Temps will be msly near to slightly abv normal for Wed thru Fri.

AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR ceilings this morning should improve to VFR by midday. VFR conditions are expected tonight, possibly lowering to MVFR again late tonight. Winds light east to northeast today becoming light southeast tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sun...all TAF sites VFR with mdt S winds.

Sun Ngt...all TAF sites low MVFR of IFR clgs with Shwrs and rn.
Mdt S winds.

Mon...all TAF sites MVFR clgs becmg low VFR clgs by Aftn. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in shwrs. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg W late in the day.

Mon Ngt - Tue...all TAF sites VFR - low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW winds.

Tue Ngt - Wed...all TAF sites VFR, lowering low VFR clgs by late Wed Aftn with lgt shwrs. Lgt winds.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds will be light today. Seas will be around 1 to 2 ft today, dropping to around 1 ft tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated at this tm ovr these ptns of the fcst. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs msly composed of two spectral groups; a shorter 4 to 6 sec and a longer 10 to 12 sec pd swell.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Fairhaven
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:13 AM ADT     1.06 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 04:32 AM ADT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:12 AM ADT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:18 AM ADT     6.48 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:42 PM ADT     0.73 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 04:27 PM ADT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:37 PM ADT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:50 PM ADT     6.66 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fairhaven, New Brunswick, Tide feet

Eastport, Passamaquoddy Bay, Maine, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Caribou, ME,