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FXUS61 KCAR 252158 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 558 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build across the region through Friday night then slowly exit to the south and east through the weekend. A warm front will lift through the region Sunday, then push back south through the region as a cold front Sunday night and Monday. High pressure then builds into the Maritimes through Tuesday as a storm system approaches from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A last mid lvl vort max is advcg ESE toward Nrn ME from Cntrl QB with some additional SC and AC cldnss msly toward N Cntrl ptns of the FA. This may hold temps upwards a few deg ovr that ptn of the FA erly to mid Eve before the s/wv moves E of the FA late this eve, allowing the return of clrg skies.

Otherwise, we lowered winds ovr NW vlys a little more late tngt, with sig hill/ridge top vly ovrngt low temp diffs by daybreak Fri with at and abv blyr winds xpctd to remain intact ovrngt.

Prev Disc: The upper level trof will continue to push the low pressure system out over the Maritimes and usher a larger surface high pressure system into the region tonight and Friday.
For tonight, high res models show the relaxing pressure gradients with the center of the high pressure moving across the Great Lakes. This will decrease W winds to be fairly light throughout the night. The 925mb model temps show the cold airmass still over the region. In addition, a very shallow, dry inversion at the surface with little to no cloud cover will drop temps into the 20s across the region with teens in the North Woods.

By Friday, the center of the surface high pressure will be sitting right over the region, making for a sunny, light wind day. Model temps indicate that the high temps for the day will return to more seasonable 50s. The vorticity models show some shortwave energy moving across the north in the afternoon, but with the dry column, only high clouds are expected to develop.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Deep layered ridging builds in Friday night through Saturday night, with its northern axis pushing to the east on Sunday as northern stream trough passing over Quebec flattens the top of the ridge.

It should be dry as a result with minimal cloud cover Friday night through Saturday night due to subsidence under the ridge.
With light winds should have decent radiational cooling conditions at night, so went towards the 18th percentile of guidance for lows both nights. For highs on Saturday and Sunday, since the area is prior to greenup - guidance often is too cool, so went towards the 83rd percentile of guidance for highs.
Also undercut dewpoints during the day Saturday, leaning towards the 18th percentile for dewpoints which is fairly close to where a blend of MOS would be.

Lows Friday night should be around 10 degrees below normal, ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Saturday should be around 5 degrees above normal, generally from around 50 near the immediate coast to around 60/lower 60s inland. Lows Saturday night should be near to slightly above normal.

As the northern stream trough passes to the north Sunday, it could trigger some isolated to scattered showers, with the best chance across the North. Low level warm advection could make Sunday a few warmer than Saturday away from the coast, despite having more cloud cover.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Deep layered ridging re-establishes itself over the region Sunday night through Monday night, so other than possibly some lingering showers Sunday evening it should be dry.

A northern stream system approaching from south central Canada should beat down the top of the ridge again on Tuesday and Tuesday night, this should allow for some warm advection rains to move in.

The question on Wednesday is does the deep layered ridge re- establish itself, or does the northern stream system moving into Southeastern Canada dominate. The former would suggest a dry Wednesday, while the latter one at least the risk of some showers. For now, there is quite a bit of uncertainty which of the two scenarios will play out, so opted for isolated to scattered showers for now.

Temperatures should be above normal Sunday night-Monday night, near normal Tuesday and possibly remain so on Wednesday. Quite a bit of uncertainty on temperatures on Wednesday.

AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for tonight and Friday for all terminals. This evening, NW winds 5-10 kts will quickly decrease to light and variable winds for the rest of the night. For Friday, NW winds 5-10 kts.

SHORT TERM: Friday night-Saturday night...VFR. LLWS possible Saturday night.

Sunday-Sunday night...MVFR or lower possible, then becoming VFR later Sunday night. S-SE winds G15-20KT possible Sunday.

Monday-Monday night...VFR. N winds G15-20KT possible Monday.

Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for tonight and Friday.

SHORT TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters Friday night through Tuesday should limit sustained winds to around 10 kt or less and seas to 2 ft or less.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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