Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stephenson, MI
March 19, 2024 3:08 AM CDT (08:08 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:54 AM Sunset 7:05 PM Moonrise 1:15 PM Moonset 4:51 AM |
LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 257 Am Cdt Tue Mar 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Wednesday afternoon - .
Overnight - SW wind 10 to 20 kts with a few gusts to around 25 kts. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft toward daybreak.
Today - W wind 10 to 20 kts veering nw in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the late morning and afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tonight - NW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. A chance of flurries. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday - NW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. A chance of flurries in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft late in the afternoon.
LMZ500
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Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 190616 AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 216 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Off and on light snow showers today, with gusty northwest winds developing by afternoon, especially in the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior.
- Lake-effect snow continuing into Thursday.
- Blustery winds continue into Wednesday.
- Northwest high-end gales and heavy freezing spray expected tonight and Wednesday across central and eastern Lake Superior.
- Another shot for snow comes Thursday night/Friday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Radar imagery this morning showed a wave of isentropically forced precip shifting east through the forecast area. A quick look at webcams show some light snow accumulations on roadways here and there. Snow amounts observed here at our office outside of Negaunee have only measured 0.3 inches. Overnight temperatures have been mild, and most surface observations have been in the 20s.
As we press through the day today, favorable location in relation to the jet streak will support additional snow shower development over mostly the east this morning. Most of the region should see a break in activity this morning, followed by what appears to be dinurally enhanced shower activity as another shortwave within the broad cyclonic aloft pivots through, all before a transition to lake effect snow. Deep moisture under inversions as high as 7k feet should support some good snow showers here and there, but given the cold air really won't move in until tonight, significant accumulations aren't expected. Overall thinking is mostly an inch or less today with the higher amounts being over the east half. Gusty winds will begin developing by late morning/afternoon from west to east. Windiest spots will be the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior, where 30-35 mph gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the northwest winds may gust to 25 mph this afternoon.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Not much has changed in the past 24 hours with respect how guidance is projecting the eventual evolution of the pattern across North America. Through the midweek period, the main setup will involve a broad ridge/trough pattern from west to east across the continent, positioning the forecast area in northwest flow. This will prove favorable for another clipper system diving out of Canada, opening the door for snow chances, more winter like temperatures, and gusty winds. Toward the end of the week and weekend, the broad trough over the eastern third of North American will lift and longitudinally stretch across Canada. At the same time, eastward progressing deep trough will push into the west coast. There appears to be a slowing trend in the west coast troughing, which appears to be a factor into a potential storm early next week. Overall though, confidence in the latter half of this forecast period is low, but is increasing in regards to a a quick hitting system Thursday night/Friday.
Light snow continues Tuesday courtesy of a passing clipper system, gradually changing over to lake effect snow as the associated cold front moves through during the afternoon. The bulk of the cold air isn't expected to surge in until Tuesday evening as a secondary shortwave presses in. This will enable 850mb temps to plummet to near -20C by Wednesday morning. As the surface low pulls away into southern Ontario/eastern Quebec, stout high pressure will press southeast out of the Canadian Prairies setting up persistent NW flow over the Great Lakes. Together, all of this will kick off another lake effect snow episode and blustery winds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Model soundings show lift co-located with the DGZ and inversion heights upwards of 7k feet. But they also include an inverted V signature below the cloud base, indicative of a dry near surface layer that will need to be overcome for significant snow accumulations. Models vary on the impact this could have on the snow. Ensembles show a 60-90% chance a widespread 1-2 inches of snow across the NW wind snow belts by Wednesday afternoon, and while higher embedded amounts would be expected where we can see some terrain enhancement as well as throughout the eastern UP courtesy of the longer fetch off of Superior, exact amounts remain uncertain.
This will bear monitoring, as we could be flirting with advisory amounts out there. Expect snow showers to linger across the east into early Thursday, but end Wednesday afternoon or evening in the west. The resulting strong pressure gradient between the low and high and cold air advection will provide an ideal environment for blustery winds. Daytime heating during the day Wednesday will enable more widespread blustery conditions. Right now, 30-40 mph northwest winds are expected near the lakeshores, with 25-35 mph possible elsewhere. The strong winds may also support some beach erosion/lakeshore flooding concerns for Alger and Luce counties during the day Wednesday.
As this system pulls away later Wednesday night, a closed low will drop into Hudson Bay while a weak middle stream shortwave presses due east across the north-central Plains and a southern stream into the Deep South. On Friday, a slug of isentropic ascent tied to a weak warm front associated with the middle shortwave will stretch eastward into the Upper Midwest. This could touch off some light snow across the area, though our best chances will be across the southern UP.
This weekend, guidance suggests a deep and potent shortwave will begin organizing and lift out of the Rockies. As expected this far out, there's considerable spread among the ensemble systems on its track and where the warm/cold air will be; but given the spread in possibilities, its recommended that anyone with travel plans Sunday into early next week keep tabs on the forecast.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Light snow associated with a disturbance has already spread across most of the w and c portions of Upper MI. In its wake, expect VFR to prevail overnight at IWD/CMX/SAW. During today, MVFR cigs should develop at all terminals soon after sunrise. While those cigs are expected to lift to just above 3000ft in the aftn, MVFR cigs may hold on thru the day. Sct -shsn will begin to develop across the area during the day under cyclonic flow. Vis may drop to briefly to MVFR at times. As incoming air mass becomes increasingly colder tonight, lake effect shsn will become more widespread with greater fluctuations in vis btwn IFR and VFR possible. NW winds will be gusty to 25-35kt today into tonight at all terminals, strongest at CMX.
MARINE
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Winds gradually backing more to the W and eventually SW fall back largely to around 20 knots across the lake this evening, but will increase to around 20 to 30 knots across the western half of Lake Superior into the early hours of Tuesday. Another system moving through the region Tuesday through Wednesday then will bring another punch of colder air and tighter pressure gradient, with the threat for gales across the east half increasing Tuesday night into Wednesday. Internal probabilistic guidance shows around a 30-50% chance for gales beginning by Tuesday evening, then a 50-80% chance for high end gales beginning Tuesday night. There is a low chance (<25%) for storm force winds as well. Given this level of confidence, a Gale Warning is in effect for much of Lake Superior Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. Additionally, the combination of cold air and strong winds, an environment favorable for heavy freezing spray development is likely (>75%). Winds decrease Wednesday night, coming in at or below 20 knots the rest of the week before increasing to around 20 to 25 knots Saturday.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for LSZ240>242.
Gale Warning from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ240>242-263.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243- 244.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ243>251-264>267.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ245>251.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ221-248-250.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 216 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Off and on light snow showers today, with gusty northwest winds developing by afternoon, especially in the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior.
- Lake-effect snow continuing into Thursday.
- Blustery winds continue into Wednesday.
- Northwest high-end gales and heavy freezing spray expected tonight and Wednesday across central and eastern Lake Superior.
- Another shot for snow comes Thursday night/Friday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Radar imagery this morning showed a wave of isentropically forced precip shifting east through the forecast area. A quick look at webcams show some light snow accumulations on roadways here and there. Snow amounts observed here at our office outside of Negaunee have only measured 0.3 inches. Overnight temperatures have been mild, and most surface observations have been in the 20s.
As we press through the day today, favorable location in relation to the jet streak will support additional snow shower development over mostly the east this morning. Most of the region should see a break in activity this morning, followed by what appears to be dinurally enhanced shower activity as another shortwave within the broad cyclonic aloft pivots through, all before a transition to lake effect snow. Deep moisture under inversions as high as 7k feet should support some good snow showers here and there, but given the cold air really won't move in until tonight, significant accumulations aren't expected. Overall thinking is mostly an inch or less today with the higher amounts being over the east half. Gusty winds will begin developing by late morning/afternoon from west to east. Windiest spots will be the Keweenaw and near Lake Superior, where 30-35 mph gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the northwest winds may gust to 25 mph this afternoon.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Not much has changed in the past 24 hours with respect how guidance is projecting the eventual evolution of the pattern across North America. Through the midweek period, the main setup will involve a broad ridge/trough pattern from west to east across the continent, positioning the forecast area in northwest flow. This will prove favorable for another clipper system diving out of Canada, opening the door for snow chances, more winter like temperatures, and gusty winds. Toward the end of the week and weekend, the broad trough over the eastern third of North American will lift and longitudinally stretch across Canada. At the same time, eastward progressing deep trough will push into the west coast. There appears to be a slowing trend in the west coast troughing, which appears to be a factor into a potential storm early next week. Overall though, confidence in the latter half of this forecast period is low, but is increasing in regards to a a quick hitting system Thursday night/Friday.
Light snow continues Tuesday courtesy of a passing clipper system, gradually changing over to lake effect snow as the associated cold front moves through during the afternoon. The bulk of the cold air isn't expected to surge in until Tuesday evening as a secondary shortwave presses in. This will enable 850mb temps to plummet to near -20C by Wednesday morning. As the surface low pulls away into southern Ontario/eastern Quebec, stout high pressure will press southeast out of the Canadian Prairies setting up persistent NW flow over the Great Lakes. Together, all of this will kick off another lake effect snow episode and blustery winds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Model soundings show lift co-located with the DGZ and inversion heights upwards of 7k feet. But they also include an inverted V signature below the cloud base, indicative of a dry near surface layer that will need to be overcome for significant snow accumulations. Models vary on the impact this could have on the snow. Ensembles show a 60-90% chance a widespread 1-2 inches of snow across the NW wind snow belts by Wednesday afternoon, and while higher embedded amounts would be expected where we can see some terrain enhancement as well as throughout the eastern UP courtesy of the longer fetch off of Superior, exact amounts remain uncertain.
This will bear monitoring, as we could be flirting with advisory amounts out there. Expect snow showers to linger across the east into early Thursday, but end Wednesday afternoon or evening in the west. The resulting strong pressure gradient between the low and high and cold air advection will provide an ideal environment for blustery winds. Daytime heating during the day Wednesday will enable more widespread blustery conditions. Right now, 30-40 mph northwest winds are expected near the lakeshores, with 25-35 mph possible elsewhere. The strong winds may also support some beach erosion/lakeshore flooding concerns for Alger and Luce counties during the day Wednesday.
As this system pulls away later Wednesday night, a closed low will drop into Hudson Bay while a weak middle stream shortwave presses due east across the north-central Plains and a southern stream into the Deep South. On Friday, a slug of isentropic ascent tied to a weak warm front associated with the middle shortwave will stretch eastward into the Upper Midwest. This could touch off some light snow across the area, though our best chances will be across the southern UP.
This weekend, guidance suggests a deep and potent shortwave will begin organizing and lift out of the Rockies. As expected this far out, there's considerable spread among the ensemble systems on its track and where the warm/cold air will be; but given the spread in possibilities, its recommended that anyone with travel plans Sunday into early next week keep tabs on the forecast.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Light snow associated with a disturbance has already spread across most of the w and c portions of Upper MI. In its wake, expect VFR to prevail overnight at IWD/CMX/SAW. During today, MVFR cigs should develop at all terminals soon after sunrise. While those cigs are expected to lift to just above 3000ft in the aftn, MVFR cigs may hold on thru the day. Sct -shsn will begin to develop across the area during the day under cyclonic flow. Vis may drop to briefly to MVFR at times. As incoming air mass becomes increasingly colder tonight, lake effect shsn will become more widespread with greater fluctuations in vis btwn IFR and VFR possible. NW winds will be gusty to 25-35kt today into tonight at all terminals, strongest at CMX.
MARINE
Issued at 329 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Winds gradually backing more to the W and eventually SW fall back largely to around 20 knots across the lake this evening, but will increase to around 20 to 30 knots across the western half of Lake Superior into the early hours of Tuesday. Another system moving through the region Tuesday through Wednesday then will bring another punch of colder air and tighter pressure gradient, with the threat for gales across the east half increasing Tuesday night into Wednesday. Internal probabilistic guidance shows around a 30-50% chance for gales beginning by Tuesday evening, then a 50-80% chance for high end gales beginning Tuesday night. There is a low chance (<25%) for storm force winds as well. Given this level of confidence, a Gale Warning is in effect for much of Lake Superior Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. Additionally, the combination of cold air and strong winds, an environment favorable for heavy freezing spray development is likely (>75%). Winds decrease Wednesday night, coming in at or below 20 knots the rest of the week before increasing to around 20 to 25 knots Saturday.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for LSZ240>242.
Gale Warning from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ240>242-263.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243- 244.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ243>251-264>267.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ245>251.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ221-248-250.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI | 15 mi | 28 min | SSE 8G | 33°F | ||||
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 21 mi | 68 min | S 2.9 | 31°F | 29.76 | |||
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI | 26 mi | 50 min | SSW 14G | 33°F | 40°F | 29.69 | 18°F | |
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI | 39 mi | 28 min | WSW 13G | 31°F |
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Airport Reports
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