Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:18PM Thursday November 23, 2017 8:38 AM CST (14:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:00PMMoonset 9:38PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 334 Am Cst Thu Nov 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Friday night...
Today..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Morning clouds, then partly Sunny.
Tonight..SW wind increasing to 15 to 25 kts by midnight. A few gale force gusts around 35 kts possible late. Waves building to 3 to 5 ft on the bay, and to 4 to 7 ft on the lake. Partly cloudy.
Friday..SW wind to 30 kts. A few gale force gusts around 35 kts in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft on the bay, and building to 7 to 11 ft on the lake. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..SW wind 15 to 25 kts shifting nw during the evening. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 ft on the bay, and to 3 to 5 ft on the lake. A chance of showers in the evening.
LMZ521 Expires:201711231730;;834119 FZUS53 KGRB 230934 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 334 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-541>543-231730-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 231130
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
630 am est Thu nov 23 2017

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 356 am est Thu nov 23 2017
no major weather impacts expected through the short-term portion of
the forecast.

Today: a weak shortwave and weak surface trough sliding through
the u.P. This morning will bring some light snow showers or
flurries over the far eastern u.P., mainly east of munising as
winds become west to west-northwesterly. Otherwise, a surface
ridge over the mid-mississippi valley into the ohio river valley
will link up with a weak ridge sliding southeast across canada.

This will place high pressure across the upper great lakes
throughout the day. This, along with drier air pushing into the
area and warmer air aloft, will bring an end to the precipitation
throughout the day. Cloud cover may linger over the keweenaw
peninsula with continued upslope flow off lake superior. 850mb
temperatures are progged to steadily warm; however, they should
only warm to around -6c by 00z 24, again, cool enough for
continued cloud cover, but not cold enough for lake effect
precipitation. Southern and central portions of the u.P. Will
likely see the Sun sneak out throughout the day, allowing
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 30s, again, the cooler
areas will be where cloud cover linger through the day, most
notably over the keweenaw.

Tonight: the surface ridge will shift to the east allowing winds
to become more southerly across the area. At the same time, low
pressure will slide south and eastward into ontario. This will
allow a weak stationary front to lift north and eastward across
the northern portions of lake superior as a warm front. This will
be where the better moisture and forcing isentropic upglide will
be through the overnight hours. The warmer southerly flow on the
back side of the front and behind the departing surface ridge will
allow temperatures to warm enough, both aloft and at the surface
to keep the precipitation in the form of rain over lake superior.

Most of the u.P. Is expected to stay dry; however, cloud cover
will steadily increase through the overnight hours. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 244 am est Thu nov 23 2017
nam shows a shortwave in the northern plains 12z Fri that will move
through the area Fri night. NAM brings in some deeper moisture and
850-500 mb q-vector convergence across the area on Fri and both move
out Fri night. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast
overall.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the
rockies with a trough off the west coast and another in new england
12z sun. The ridge moves into the plains 12z mon. GFS then shows a
trough moving into the upper great lakes 12z Tue with cold air while
the ECMWF is slower with the trough by keeping it in the rockies.

The GFS continues to move things through with a brief cold spell on
wed while the ECMWF continues to lag behind and waits until Thu to
bring in the colder air. Looks like the manual progs have followed
the GFS solution closely with a brief shot of cold air Tue into wed.

Temperatures will be at or above normal for this forecast period.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 630 am est Thu nov 23 2017
cigs will raise MVFR at kcmx amd iwd this morning toVFR this
afternoon. Otherwise expect expectVFR conditions throughout the
forecast period at kiwd and ksaw. Llws is expected to develop late
this evening into the overnight hours as a low-level wind MAX noses
in from the west. The next chance at lowering ceilings will be
toward the very end of the TAF period as a cold front approaches
from the west.

Marine (for the 4 am lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 356 am est Thu nov 23 2017
west to west northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots will back to the
south late tonight into Friday at 20 to 30 knots with gale force
gusts to 35 knots expected. This has led to the issuance of a gale
warning from late tonight into Friday afternoon for most of lake
superior. On the back side of the strong low pressure system
additional gales of 35 to 40 knots are possible on colder northwest
flow into the area for Friday night into Saturday. Winds are then
expected to remain in the 20 to 30 knot range through at least mid
weak.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

gale warning from 7 am Friday to 5 am est Saturday for
lsz246>251-265>267.

Gale warning from 5 am est 4 am cst Friday to 1 am est
midnight cst Saturday for lsz240>245-263-264.

Lake michigan...

gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm est Friday for lmz221-248-250.

Short term... Kec
long term... 07
aviation... Kec
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi37 min W 5.1 G 11 33°F 1013.5 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi50 min SW 6 G 8.9 30°F 1014.2 hPa21°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi58 min W 9.9 G 16 33°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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G23
W11
G18
W10
G17
W16
G26

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Escanaba, MI25 mi42 minWSW 910.00 miOvercast29°F21°F72%1016 hPa

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW6CalmW5S9S10S9SW7SW10SW7SW6SW8SW5SW5SW9SW10W10W10SW6SW6SW4SW3SW6SW9
1 day agoNW15
G25
W17
G27
W21
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G29
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--W10W10NW8NW7W7NW9W5W7W7W8NW10
2 days agoW43S5S8S11
G17
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G16
S11S11S11
G18
S14SW12
G19
SW10SW10SW8SW10SW10SW11
G17
SW6SW10W10W12
G16
NW20
G27

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.