Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:09AMSunset 8:29PM Monday May 29, 2017 10:38 PM CDT (03:38 UTC) Moonrise 9:17AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 857 Pm Cdt Mon May 29 2017
Rest of tonight..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
LMZ521 Expires:201705301015;;425623 FZUS53 KGRB 300157 NSHGRB NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 857 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ521-522-301015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 300000
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
800 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Short term (this evening through Tuesday)
issued at 355 pm edt Mon may 29 2017
persistent scattered rain showers will continue through the short-
term with the best chances during daytime heating.

Tonight and Tuesday: vertically stacked low pressure will continue
to remain nearly stationary over ontario through the short-term
portion of the forecast. This will keep generally cloudy skies and
scattered rain showers in the forecast as several shortwaves rotate
through the upper great lakes. There will be a decrease in rain
showers and cloud cover through much of the night as diurnal rain
showers diminish with loss of daytime heating. This will be fairly
short-lived as the next shortwave over southern manitoba works into
the area late tonight into the day Tuesday. Again, the scattered
rain showers will begin to increase late tonight, but the better
chances will move into the area during the late morning and
afternoon hours Tuesday as daytime heating increases. While a
lightning strike or two cannot be completely ruled out, the chances
are very slim as the instability remains shallow. This will keep the
precipitation more in the form of instability showers with the
colder air aloft associated with the upper-level low.

Long term (Tuesday night through Monday)
issued at 357 pm edt Mon may 29 2017
upper troughing from northern canada to the great lakes dominates
into the upcoming weekend. Troughing eventually gives way to rising
heights late in the weekend into early next week. Low levels will be
influenced by sfc low over northern ontario Tue into Tue night then
from hudson bay to northern quebec Wed through fri. Shortwaves
rotating around the upper low will continue to bring chances of
scattered showers. Swath of deeper moisture to h7 will help enhance
shower chances Tue night into Wed morning and again on Thu into thu
evening. Chances for showers on Thu may be helped along by daytime
heating instability and low-level convergence due to lake breezes.

May see additional showers later Thu night into fri, but not sure on
extent of deeper moisture by that time as high pressure will be
trying to build in from the northwest, so will keep the chances low.

With the upper low in the vcnty and h85 thermal trough persisting do
expect daytime highs to stay below normal most of the week.

Coolest day of the long term will be Wed as h85 temps are progged to
be as low as 0-1c before moderating later in the day. Temps will try
to return toward normal Thu with 60s near lk superior and upper 60s
to mid 70s inland. On fri, with high building out of manitoba and
ontario, associated north winds should keep readings cool in the 50s
near lk superior while temps inland rise into the upper 60s to lower
70s.

Models still struggling with extent of shortwave moving into the
upper great lakes for the weekend. Gem was more aggressive initially
while the GFS remains farther west with the trough over the region
this week so it keeps high pressure anchored over the area. Previous
ecmwf was not showing much rain for the weekend but latest run is
now wetter for Sat night into sun. A lot of uncertainty so still
have low chances pops going, especially by sun, but will not get too
aggressive with pops yet. No matter what solution verifies, still
looks like daytime temps next weekend into early next week stay on
the cool side of normal (expect highs mainly in the 50s near lk
superior and in the 60s inland and near lk michigan). Even though
it does stay on the cool side for daytime temps, pattern does not
appear to yield any significant chances for near freezing temps
or frost.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 759 pm edt Mon may 29 2017
low pres over northern ontario will dominate the upper great lakes
thru tue. Disturbances rotating around this low will generate sct
-shra at times, most nmrs during the daylight hrs. Upslope westerly
winds at kiwd kcmx will result in lower CIGS at those terminals.

InitialVFR conditions at kiwd should fall back to MVFR by late
evening and then remain MVFR thru Tue aftn. MVFR CIGS will prevail
at kcmx thru the fcst period. Downslope winds should allowVFR
conditions to prevail at ksaw into early Tue morning before MVFR
cigs develop by late morning. Vis will likely remainVFR thru the
fcst period at all terminals though any heavier shra Tue could lead
to brief MVFR vis.

Marine (for the 4 pm lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 355 pm edt Mon may 29 2017
as high pressure builds across the plains and the broad low slowly
shifts to the east, the pressure gradient will tighten across lake
superior through the first half of the work week. This will allow
winds to gust to 15 to 25 knots at times through this time period.

Toward the end of the work week, as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes behind the exiting low pressure system and as the high
pressure system slides overhead, winds will decrease to around 10 to
15 knots.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Kec
long term... Jla
aviation... Rolfson
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 15 mi59 min SSW 6 G 11 57°F 1007.1 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi59 min SW 4.1 G 9.9 57°F 1007.1 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi51 min WSW 11 G 14 1007.1 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi59 min SW 13 G 15 56°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Escanaba, MI25 mi43 minW 810.00 miOvercast56°F51°F84%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W7SW8SW10W14
G20
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SW8S7W12W5W7SW5W6W3W8
1 day agoN3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE3CalmS3NW4SW4SE5CalmE4SE9SE9SE8SE7E10E6E6SE4Calm
2 days agoCalmSE5W4SE4CalmS3CalmCalmS3S6S7S9S7SE9SE11S13S9S8S9S8S5S5S7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.