Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 5:26 AM   Moonset 9:23 PM

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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 103 Pm Cdt Wed May 8 2024
This afternoon - NE wind 5 to 10 kts. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less. Tonight - NE wind 5 to 10 kts increasing to 10 to 20 kts after midnight. A slight chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Thursday - NE wind 10 to 20 kts. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Thursday night - N wind 10 to 15 kts. Mostly clear. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 081926 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 326 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple passing low pressure systems will keep rain chances in the forecast into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a broad mid-level low centered over SD and troffing over se Canada back into the Great Lakes. Into the latter trof, a shortwave is dropping toward Lake Superior. Btwn the mid-level low and the eastern trof, a col is over ne MN/NW WI. In the wake of the shortwave that brought rain to the area last night, particularly the e half of Upper MI, it's been a dry aftn so far, but daytime heating has led to cu/stratocu development inland from the stabilizing influence of Lake Superior.
Recent radar imagery indicates that these clouds are now building enough depth for some sprinkles or a few -shra in eastern Gogebic County. Temps currently range from the 40s near Lake Superior to the mid 60s F in the interior closer to the MI/WI stateline.

Approaching shortwave from the n and weak diurnal instability will support some -shra/sprinkles over portions of interior western Upper MI near the MI/WI stateline for the next several hrs. Not out of the question that a few sprinkles could develop over the eastern fcst area as well given the buildup of clouds in that area. A dry night will then follow with skies becoming partly cloudy. 850mb thermal trof is currently supporting considerable stratocu ne of Lake Superior. As this thermal trof advects sw, stratocu will also advance sw. Some of this cloudiness may appear in Upper MI around sunrise, but probably more so during Thu morning. Expect low temps tonight in the mid 30s to lwr 40s F.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough extending from New England down to the central Rockies 12z Thu. There is also a shortwave in northern Saskatchewan 12z Thu which heads down to Lake Winnipeg 00z Fri and into the upper Great Lakes on Fri. Dry and quiet weather lasts into Fri afternoon. Di no make too many changes to the going forecast overall.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the ern U.S. and a trough in the central Rockies and ridge on the west coast 12z Sun. There is also a shortwave in south central Canada 12z Sun that moves into the upper Great Lakes Sun night. A shortwave moves into the northern Rockies 12z Tue and into the northern plains 12z Wed. Temperatures will continue to be above normal for this forecast period and will be unsettled with weak systems moving through the area with one on Sunday and one on Wednesday with a sfc front hanging around the area as well according to the manual sfc progs.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Lower level moisture is mixing out and is being lifted by building mixed layer. Advection of stabilizing marine layer off of Lake Superior will also work to limit any cu/stratocu development closer to the lake this aftn. For IWD/CMX, this stabilizing influence will allow VFR to prevail this aftn, and VFR will continue tonight. At SAW, expect stabilizing flow off of Lake Superior to result in MVFR cigs scattering out to VFR in the next hr or two. VFR will then continue at SAW tonight. Area of lower level moisture represented by the stratocu per vis satellite imagery well ne of Lake Superior will advect sw today and tonight. While some of this moisture will mix out this aftn, it should contribute to cu/stratocu/MVFR cigs developing at all terminals after sunrise on Thu. After a few hrs or so, cloud bases will lift to VFR, or the clouds will scatter out to VFR.

MARINE
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots will prevail through tonight mainly over western and central portions of Lake Superior. After that, despite wind shifts due to multiple low pressure systems, winds will remain below 20 knots through Monday.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for LSZ240>242.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243- 244.

Lake Michigan...
None.

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