Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stephenson, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:14PM Thursday December 13, 2018 2:45 PM CST (20:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:39PMMoonset 11:11PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 1006 Am Cst Thu Dec 13 2018
This afternoon..S wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Cloudy. Patchy fog.
Tonight..SW wind 10 to 15 kts gradually veering w. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of snow showers.
Friday..W wind 10 to 15 kts gradually backing sw. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Clearing.
Friday night..SW wind 10 to 15 kts becoming variable at 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Clear.
LMZ521 Expires:201812132315;;736115 FZUS53 KGRB 131606 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1006 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-541>543-132315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stephenson, MI
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location: 45.42, -87.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 132034
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
334 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 334 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
seeing some drizzle over the eastern CWA as onshore southerly flow
continues ahead of a trough. Meanwhile, along the trough shortwave
just entering the western cwa, a thin line of light snow is being
observed. The snow and associated forcing will move east across the
area this evening and tonight, but only a dusting of snow is
expected across northwestern upper mi and eastern upper mi.

Elsewhere, some snow may be seen, but not expecting any
accumulations.

Skies will clear from W to E tonight into Fri morning, leaving sunny
skies for the rest of fri. Highs tomorrow will be around 40, except
near lake michigan where they will be in the mid 30s.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 325 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
a quasi-split and zonal flow with a few shortwaves mixed in should
round out the extended time frame. A pacific coast storm moving in
Friday afternoon will assist in amplifying the ridge over the conus
for this weekend which will continue Friday night into Saturday with
temperatures forecast to be running 5 to 10 degrees above normal for
this time of year. An amplified 500-mb height anomaly will sit over
the upper midwest on Saturday, with some portions of the u.P.

Reaching 40 degrees. A cold front will move through the area late on
Sunday, knocking temperatures down closer to normal, albeit still in
the upper 20s. Little moisture will be involved with the cold front
passage for system-based precip, but there will be enough to disrupt
the sunny conditions with some clouds returning again on Monday.

This cold front will bring some les chances along the wnw and nw
wind belts early Monday am into Monday afternoon. GFS has roughly -
10 to -13 c for 850mb temps with the current lake superior
temperatures running about 3 to 4 c. Current forecast has run with
chance pops, and I have decided to run with that for now, given it
is still on day 4.

Ridging will return again Tuesday evening into Wednesday, though
temperatures should remain in the low to mid 30s. The next chance
for precip comes near the end of the forecast period on Wednesday
night. The three main models being gfs, ecmwf, and canadian gem
currently have a shortwave trough moving through with a slight
agreement on the timing, but amplitude differences are still present
leading to an inconclusive solution in terms of pops at this time.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 124 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
at kiwd and kcmx, mainly MVFR conditions are expected until after
the passage of a trough tonight, which will bring clearing
conditions. Will likely see snow along the trough, but looks to be
light.

At ksaw: low clouds are expected to stick around until after a
trough moves through tonight, then conditions quickly improve. There
could be flurries or maybe light snow showers along the trough, but
most likely will not see any snow.

Marine (for the 4 pm lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 334 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
wsw winds will gust to 30 knots at times as a couple of troughs move
through tonight and fri. Strongest winds will be on the N side of
the keweenaw peninsula. Light winds are then expected Fri night and
sat, with an increase in southerly winds up to 25 knots Sat night.

Winds become W on Sun and NW Sun night, possibly gusting to gales
from Sun afternoon into Mon morning. Light winds are then expected
mon night into the middle of next week.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Titus
long term... Jaw
aviation... Titus
marine... Titus


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 21 mi65 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 36°F 1017.3 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi45 min S 4.1 G 8 34°F 35°F1017.4 hPa (-0.4)22°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 39 mi65 min WSW 8 G 9.9 35°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Escanaba, MI25 mi49 minSSW 97.00 miOvercast35°F28°F78%1019.9 hPa

Wind History from ESC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E10SE9SE6E3E4--E5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E4E4S8S8S6S6S9S9S9
1 day agoNW5CalmW3W3CalmW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E7SE9SE11SE12SE13SE13
G19
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2 days agoSW7S5SW6SW8SW8SW6W5W7SW4SW5W9W12W8W9W9W10W6W6W6NW6NW7NW7NW6NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.