Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 11:59 PM   Moonset 6:55 AM

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PZZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Falcon To Cape Foulweather Or Out 10 Nm- 231 Am Pdt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .
Today - S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves S 5 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 6 ft at 13 seconds. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Tonight - W wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 7 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers. Sun - SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 8 ft at 11 seconds. Showers.Sun night - W wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves W 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 9 ft at 11 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms. Mon - W wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves W 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 8 ft at 11 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms. Mon night - SW wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 8 ft at 11 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms. Tue - NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 9 ft at 11 seconds. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 5 ft at 9 seconds.

PZZ200 231 Am Pdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Elevated seas persist through today, resulting in steep and choppy seas at times. Gusty southwesterly winds becoming westerly and subsiding Saturday afternoon. Sunday, winds and seas slowly build as the next system moves into the region for the start of the upcoming week.

FXUS66 KPQR 270943 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 240 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Another front will push across the region today, with rain this morning into the afternoon, then showers. Showers will continue into early next week. May have a day or two break (Wed into Thu), but more precipitation arrives to start next weekend.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)...As of 2 am, still have some lingering showers, mainly over the Cascades. Next front is offshore, and fast approaching. As such, will see rain spread back to the coast by daybreak, with rain spreading inland this morning. This front is moving at a decent pace, will will push onshore this afternoon, racing to the Cascades by late afternoon/early evening. Will trend forecasts a such, the rain transitioning to showers behind the front.
Overall rainfall not all that much, with generally 0.25 to 0.50 inch along the coast into the Coast Range/Willapa Hills, and parts of the Cascades from Mt Jefferson northward. Bit less rain for inland valleys, with 0.10 to 0.25 inch expected.

Once the front passes, will have cooler air aloft push inland. This will maintain showers tonight into Sunday. Lapse rates do steepen just a tad, enough such that with any warming that comes with the breaks in the clouds, could see an isolated thunderstorm. Not all that sold on the idea, but will maintain a slight chance for areas along the coast, as as inland for Sunday afternoon/evening north of a Tillamook to Estacada line.

Another fast moving upper level system will push off the Pac into the region Sunday night. This will enhance the showers, with even a period of steady rain for a few hours Sun night. As this disturbance passes, snow levels will drop from 4000-4500 ft on Sunday down to 2500-3000 ft Sunday night. Could see another 2 to 6 inches of snow across the Cascades at that time. But, with more showery pattern by that time, accumulations across the higher terrain will be more random and non-uniform. But, with this being a late season drop of snow levels, may need to issue a winter weather advisory for the Cascades for Sunday night into early Monday, but will let day shift (or next few shifts) re-evaluate that scenario. /Rockey

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Thursday)...No changes. Overall confidence is low to moderate the pattern stays rather progressive into late next week - deterministic and ensemble guidance struggle resolving the longitudinal placement of ridge/trough features going forward. Showers are expected to linger on Tuesday as snow levels hold somewhere between 2500-3500ft. Wednesday guidance has continued to trend a little drier nudging a larger scale upper-level low further north while a transient ridge glides over the region. Out of all the ensemble solutions available, this scenario is present in roughly 60% of them in addition to the latest deterministic ECMWF and GFS. Past this point model uncertainty becomes truly significant with nearly a 50/50 split between maintaining a ridge feature overhead or bringing a potent trough into the region by Thursday. Hopefully in the coming forecast runs guidance begins to show better agreement resolving the pattern mid to late week. Current confidence in the forecast by Thursday is low. /Schuldt

AVIATION
12Z TAFs...Generally VFR conditions, but with the frontal system approaching the airspace, expect rain to return along with mixed VFR and MVFR flight conditions. Predominately MVFR conditions and a 30-40% probability for IFR conditions along the coast through the TAF period. Predominately VFR conditions for inland locations with a 25-35% probability for MVFR conditions.
These conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Southerly winds across the airspace through around 00Z Sunday with gusts up to 25 kt along the coast and up to 20 kt for inland locations. Afterwards, winds will become more westerly with gusts up to 15 kt along the coast as southerly winds persist inland with gusts up to 10 kt through the remainder of the TAF period.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
The AWOS at KMMV is still out of commission. There is no estimated time of repair.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR with rain, along with a 20-30% probability for MVFR conditions through the TAF period.
Southerly winds with gusts up to 20 kt through around 00Z Sunday.
Afterwards, winds will subside with gusts up to 10 kt through the remainder of the TAF period. /42

MARINE
Elevated conditions persist through today, resulting in steep and choppy seas along with gusty southwesterly winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Therefore, have adjusted the timing of the current Small Craft Advisories to reflect this as conditions will start to subside by Saturday afternoon as winds become more westerly. However, this will be somewhat short lived as the next system is expected to start impacting the waters Sunday and will bring a return to Small Craft winds and seas that are expected to persist across as waters through the start of the upcoming week.
/42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for the Columbia Bar and all of the inner coastal waters (from shore to 10 nm offshore).

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for all of the offshore coastal waters (10 to 60 nm offshore).

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Tillamook
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Sat -- 03:26 AM PDT     6.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:04 PM PDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:32 PM PDT     4.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:32 PM PDT     1.85 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon, Tide feet

Garibaldi
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Sat -- 02:56 AM PDT     7.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:54 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:12 AM PDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:52 PM PDT     5.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:49 PM PDT     3.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Garibaldi, Oregon, Tide feet

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