Monday, September25, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Tillamook, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:04PM Monday September 25, 2017 8:54 PM PDT (03:54 UTC) Moonrise 11:35AMMoonset 9:27PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 242 Pm Pdt Mon Sep 25 2017
Tonight..SW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, veering to nw after midnight. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds after midnight. W swell 5 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of rain in the evening.
Tue..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue night..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..SE wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 4 ft.
Thu night..S wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 4 ft.
Fri..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 5 ft.
Sat..W wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 4 ft.
PZZ200 242 Pm Pdt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A weak cold front moves across the washington and northern oregon waters this evening. High pressure then returns Tuesday and will persist through much of the week. A brief thermal low develops off the southern oregon coast for a short round of northerlies Tuesday evening through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tillamook, OR
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location: 45.46, -123.85     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 260334
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
834 pm pdt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis A weak upper level disturbance will bring a few sprinkles
or areas of light rain to SW washington and NW oregon through this
evening. High pressure will build into eastern wa or Tuesday,
resulting in offshore flow and warmer temps through Thursday. The
next chance for rain comes around Friday, as a weakening cold front
moves into the pac nw. Showers and cooler temperatures may linger
into the weekend.

Short term Tonight through Thursday... No changes to forecasts.

Previous discussion follows: krtx radar is presently down
due to a mechanical failure, but surface observations continue to
show some spotty light rain or sprinkles across the forecast area.

Visible satellite imagery shows weak low pressure in the process of
occluding off the pac NW coast, but still providing enough lift for
those showers sprinkles this afternoon. Expect the low and associated
isentropic lift to continue to weaken through this evening,
eventually bringing an end to the spotty precip by tomorrow morning.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to strengthen
off the coast Tuesday, then nose eastward into washington Tue night
and wed. Meanwhile, thermal low pressure will build north along the
oregon coast by Wednesday. This will induce some gusty offshore flow,
which will result in a decent warmup for Wednesday and Thursday. With
most models forecasting 850 mb temps around +17 deg c, this should
push most inland valley locations well up into the 80s Wed thu. As is
often the case, the coast will be trickier for forecasting temps,
depending highly on how long the offshore flow can push back on the
seabreeze Wednesday. With decent alignment of offshore flow from the
surface up through 700 mb, coastal areas should approach 80 degrees
wed. This is reflected well in MOS guidance and our forecast high for
wed is pretty close as well.

Models show thermal low pressure lingering near the oregon coast wed
night thu, while easterly flow aloft turns more southerly. This
should help induce a southerly wind reversal along the coast, likely
bringing areas of fog and low clouds back to coastal areas. With this
wind reversal and an approaching pacific cold front, expect the
marine layer to deepen a bit late Thu thu night... Perhaps enough to
bring some low clouds into the inland valleys by Friday morning.


Long term Thursday night through Monday... Southwesterly flow
across the region Thursday night and Friday as an upper trough
advances through the forecast area. Forecast models in general
agreement with a weakening front pushing across the area. Boosted
pops a little higher as models have begun to increase consistency of
solutions and cohesiveness of frontal band. A brief period of zonal
flow returns Saturday from the combined lifting of the upper trough
and a return of a building ridge off the california coast. However,
models then diverge a bit for the first half of next week, so have
maintained some low end pop chances for the start of next week in a
nod to the ECMWF solution which provides for a deeper upper trough
with more moisture (compared to the drier GFS solution). Expect that
temperatures will trend back to slightly below seasonal normals for
the weekend through early next week. Cullen

Aviation A decaying frontal system will continue to bring
localized ifr conditions to portions of the north coast this
evening. Otherwise, expect conditions along the coast to become
predominately MVFR tonight. Conditions in the interior look to
remainVFR tonight with overcast skies. CIGS will begin to lift
in the morning as the flow starts to turn offshore, with clouds
retreating to the coast by late morning. Expect the coast to
becomeVFR in the afternoon, withVFR conditions persisting in
the interior.

Kpdx and approaches... PrimarilyVFR the next 24 hours. If skies
clear quicker than expected overnight we could see some low
stratus tomorrow morning, but chances are low. 64

Marine A decaying cold front will continue to move across the
waters this evening and bring a few southerly gusts to 20 kt.

Northerlies will increase late in the day on Tuesday as a thermal
trough builds up the coast. Models continue to show marginal
advisory gusts in the lower 20s this evening. Will forgo issuing
an advisory for the time being. Regardless, the thermal trough
will drift offshore and weaken later Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday,
winds will remain light for the remainder of the work week. Seas
will remain 4 to 6 feet through the period. Saturday may bring a
pacific low off the b.C. Coast for increasing westerlies heading
into the weekend. 64 jbonk

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 8 mi54 min 56°F1019.6 hPa (+0.0)
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 52 mi54 min Calm G 1 60°F 65°F1018.8 hPa (+0.0)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 54 mi54 min 59°F5 ft

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR3 mi79 minN 010.00 miOvercast61°F57°F88%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW4W6W5W3SW3SW3
1 day agoCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSE3CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3NW4CalmNW9SW5SW5CalmSW3Calm
2 days agoCalmSE3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNW5W7W7NW5SW4CalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Mon -- 12:45 AM PDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM PDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:34 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:39 PM PDT     1.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:18 PM PDT     5.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:27 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Mon -- 04:54 AM PDT     6.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:28 AM PDT     2.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:35 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:42 PM PDT     7.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:27 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:15 PM PDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.