Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nehalem, OR
March 18, 2024 9:13 PM PDT (04:13 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:16 AM Sunset 7:24 PM Moonrise 11:41 AM Moonset 3:42 AM |
PZZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Falcon To Cape Foulweather Or Out 10 Nm- 233 Am Pdt Mon Mar 18 2024
Today - N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 11 seconds and W 3 ft at 17 seconds.
Tonight - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the evening. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 11 seconds and W 4 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Tue night - S wind 10 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts to 15 kt early in the evening. Wind waves S 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Wed - S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves S 5 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 13 seconds. Rain likely.
Wed night - SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt early in the evening. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 12 seconds. Rain likely.
Thu - S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 3 ft at 14 seconds and W 4 ft at 18 seconds.
Fri - S wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 14 seconds.
PZZ200 233 Am Pdt Mon Mar 18 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure offshore will weaken over the next couple of days. A more active weather pattern develops for the latter half of the week as low pressure system approach the region.
Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 190321 AAA AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 820 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024
EVENING UPDATE, for aviation weather.
SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm weather through Tuesday with strong high pressure aloft. Gradual return to more typical March weather by midweek as high pressure weakens, allowing a weak low pressure system to brush the coast with some light rain as early as Wednesday morning. A significant cooling trend is expected to start Wednesday with a more substantial system bringing cooler and moister weather across the region towards Friday/Saturday and will likely linger into the following week.
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Sunday...Unseasonably warm temperatureswill continue through the middle of the week as a ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominant synoptic feature across the Pac NW. Daytime highs will be in the low 60s to mid 70s on Tuesday thanks to a slightly stronger onshore push. Overnight lows will also be on the warm side and be in the mid to upper 40s across most of the forecast area, with slightly cooler temperatures expected for the Cascades. Expect a return of fog along the coast tonight along with some patchy fog within the Willamette Valley. The cooling trend will continue through the week along with some light precipitation on Wednesday and a stronger signal for precipitation by Friday through next Sunday.
Now, with the general overview done, lets get into the details. A pattern change is expected as deterministic, ensemble and high resolution models all have a very broad/disorganized area of low pressure moving into the eastern Pacific Ocean and pushing the ridge pf high pressure axis east of the Cascades over the next 24 hours.
As this happen expect a stronger onshore push, will will be the harbinger of a cooler and wetter pattern for the remainder of the week and into next Sunday. What is causing this change is a weak, upper level low embedded within this broad area of low pressure.
Models are showing much cooler 850 mb temperatures being brought into the Pac NW. Comparing the 850 mb temperatures over the next 48 hours, will help clarify what is currently in the forecast. For example, models have 850 mb temperatures around 11C to 13C today (Monday), 7C to 11C Tuesday and 3C to 5C by Wednesday. This cooling trend will translate into daytime highs in the the upper 60s to low 70s for inland locations, mid 50s to low 60s for the OR/WA coast and Coast Range and low to mid 60s for the Cascades for Tuesday.
Wednesday, mid to upper 50s for inland locations, upper 40s to mid 50s for the OR/WA coast, Coast Range and Cascades for Wednesday.
Also, with this upper level low passing, precipitation chances will also increase. But, looking at deterministic model QPF spread, this is shaping up to be a high PoP/low QPF event. As we move beyond the middle of the week and through next Sunday, the WPC 500mb clusters are in good, general agreement that broad troughing pattern across the western half of CONUS. This means that a cooling trend is expected, with snow levels falling towards 4000-3000 ft by Friday/Saturday and yes there is some precipitation associated with the low towards the end of this week.
While overall QPF values will likely change, if the pattern holds rain and snow will return to the region. /42
AVIATION
High pressure remains over the region, maintaining mostly clear skies across the interior. However, marine stratus will quickly spread along the coast this evening, with that stratus drifting inland into the Coast Range valleys and up the Columbia River for a while overnight. Not sure if this stratus will punch into the Willamette Valley. However, with light winds and cool air mass, should see patchy fog and areas of low stratus in the interior from KPDX area southward to KEUG, with lowest flight conditions being south of Salem towards KEUG. Will trend 06Z TAFs as such.
On Tuesday, stratus will persist along the coast, but lift to lower MVFR by midday (18Z-20Z). Farther inland, any stratus or fog that does form will dissipate by 18Z for the most part, with VFR afterwards under mostly clear skies.
* Note: The observations out of KONP are generally limited. As such, ammendments are not expected.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR tonight and most of Tue, as high pressure remains over the region. However, weak onshore flow in the low levels should pull in enough marine air from the coast to provide a period of IFR or low MVFR stratus between 12Z and 18Z Tue. Suspect will be rather scattered to broken in nature. /Rockey
MARINE
We'll continue to see an large area of high pressure sit over the Pacific Northwest today with northerly winds over the waters persisting through tonight into Tuesday. Over the next several days, the high pressure overhead will weaken and shift eastward before we transition to a more active weather pattern Wednesday through the end of the week. Mid period westerly swell around 4 to 6 ft expected to last into mid-week. /Schuldt
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
Area Forecast Discussion UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 820 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024
EVENING UPDATE, for aviation weather.
SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm weather through Tuesday with strong high pressure aloft. Gradual return to more typical March weather by midweek as high pressure weakens, allowing a weak low pressure system to brush the coast with some light rain as early as Wednesday morning. A significant cooling trend is expected to start Wednesday with a more substantial system bringing cooler and moister weather across the region towards Friday/Saturday and will likely linger into the following week.
DISCUSSION
Tonight through Sunday...Unseasonably warm temperatureswill continue through the middle of the week as a ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominant synoptic feature across the Pac NW. Daytime highs will be in the low 60s to mid 70s on Tuesday thanks to a slightly stronger onshore push. Overnight lows will also be on the warm side and be in the mid to upper 40s across most of the forecast area, with slightly cooler temperatures expected for the Cascades. Expect a return of fog along the coast tonight along with some patchy fog within the Willamette Valley. The cooling trend will continue through the week along with some light precipitation on Wednesday and a stronger signal for precipitation by Friday through next Sunday.
Now, with the general overview done, lets get into the details. A pattern change is expected as deterministic, ensemble and high resolution models all have a very broad/disorganized area of low pressure moving into the eastern Pacific Ocean and pushing the ridge pf high pressure axis east of the Cascades over the next 24 hours.
As this happen expect a stronger onshore push, will will be the harbinger of a cooler and wetter pattern for the remainder of the week and into next Sunday. What is causing this change is a weak, upper level low embedded within this broad area of low pressure.
Models are showing much cooler 850 mb temperatures being brought into the Pac NW. Comparing the 850 mb temperatures over the next 48 hours, will help clarify what is currently in the forecast. For example, models have 850 mb temperatures around 11C to 13C today (Monday), 7C to 11C Tuesday and 3C to 5C by Wednesday. This cooling trend will translate into daytime highs in the the upper 60s to low 70s for inland locations, mid 50s to low 60s for the OR/WA coast and Coast Range and low to mid 60s for the Cascades for Tuesday.
Wednesday, mid to upper 50s for inland locations, upper 40s to mid 50s for the OR/WA coast, Coast Range and Cascades for Wednesday.
Also, with this upper level low passing, precipitation chances will also increase. But, looking at deterministic model QPF spread, this is shaping up to be a high PoP/low QPF event. As we move beyond the middle of the week and through next Sunday, the WPC 500mb clusters are in good, general agreement that broad troughing pattern across the western half of CONUS. This means that a cooling trend is expected, with snow levels falling towards 4000-3000 ft by Friday/Saturday and yes there is some precipitation associated with the low towards the end of this week.
While overall QPF values will likely change, if the pattern holds rain and snow will return to the region. /42
AVIATION
High pressure remains over the region, maintaining mostly clear skies across the interior. However, marine stratus will quickly spread along the coast this evening, with that stratus drifting inland into the Coast Range valleys and up the Columbia River for a while overnight. Not sure if this stratus will punch into the Willamette Valley. However, with light winds and cool air mass, should see patchy fog and areas of low stratus in the interior from KPDX area southward to KEUG, with lowest flight conditions being south of Salem towards KEUG. Will trend 06Z TAFs as such.
On Tuesday, stratus will persist along the coast, but lift to lower MVFR by midday (18Z-20Z). Farther inland, any stratus or fog that does form will dissipate by 18Z for the most part, with VFR afterwards under mostly clear skies.
* Note: The observations out of KONP are generally limited. As such, ammendments are not expected.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR tonight and most of Tue, as high pressure remains over the region. However, weak onshore flow in the low levels should pull in enough marine air from the coast to provide a period of IFR or low MVFR stratus between 12Z and 18Z Tue. Suspect will be rather scattered to broken in nature. /Rockey
MARINE
We'll continue to see an large area of high pressure sit over the Pacific Northwest today with northerly winds over the waters persisting through tonight into Tuesday. Over the next several days, the high pressure overhead will weaken and shift eastward before we transition to a more active weather pattern Wednesday through the end of the week. Mid period westerly swell around 4 to 6 ft expected to last into mid-week. /Schuldt
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
46278 | 12 mi | 43 min | 51°F | 53°F | 6 ft | |||
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR | 12 mi | 55 min | 52°F | 30.10 | ||||
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 | 37 mi | 47 min | 50°F | 6 ft | ||||
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) | 49 mi | 47 min | 52°F | 7 ft |
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No data
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KTMK TILLAMOOK,OR | 21 sm | 18 min | calm | 9 sm | Overcast | 50°F | 50°F | 100% | 30.10 |
Nehalem
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:41 AM PDT 2.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:42 AM PDT Moonset
Mon -- 07:21 AM PDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:58 AM PDT 6.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:40 PM PDT Moonrise
Mon -- 04:17 PM PDT 0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:26 PM PDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:52 PM PDT 5.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:41 AM PDT 2.86 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:42 AM PDT Moonset
Mon -- 07:21 AM PDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:58 AM PDT 6.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:40 PM PDT Moonrise
Mon -- 04:17 PM PDT 0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:26 PM PDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:52 PM PDT 5.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet
12 am |
4 |
1 am |
3.4 |
2 am |
3 |
3 am |
2.9 |
4 am |
3.3 |
5 am |
4.1 |
6 am |
5.1 |
7 am |
6 |
8 am |
6.3 |
9 am |
6.1 |
10 am |
5.5 |
11 am |
4.6 |
12 pm |
3.6 |
1 pm |
2.4 |
2 pm |
1.4 |
3 pm |
0.6 |
4 pm |
0.3 |
5 pm |
0.4 |
6 pm |
1.1 |
7 pm |
2.2 |
8 pm |
3.4 |
9 pm |
4.4 |
10 pm |
5 |
11 pm |
5.2 |
Barview
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:41 AM PDT 3.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:41 AM PDT Moonset
Mon -- 07:21 AM PDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:23 AM PDT 6.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:41 PM PDT Moonrise
Mon -- 03:17 PM PDT 0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:26 PM PDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:17 PM PDT 5.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:41 AM PDT 3.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:41 AM PDT Moonset
Mon -- 07:21 AM PDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:23 AM PDT 6.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:41 PM PDT Moonrise
Mon -- 03:17 PM PDT 0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:26 PM PDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:17 PM PDT 5.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon, Tide feet
12 am |
4 |
1 am |
3.6 |
2 am |
3.5 |
3 am |
3.8 |
4 am |
4.5 |
5 am |
5.3 |
6 am |
6.1 |
7 am |
6.5 |
8 am |
6.5 |
9 am |
6 |
10 am |
5.2 |
11 am |
4 |
12 pm |
2.8 |
1 pm |
1.6 |
2 pm |
0.8 |
3 pm |
0.4 |
4 pm |
0.5 |
5 pm |
1.1 |
6 pm |
2.1 |
7 pm |
3.3 |
8 pm |
4.3 |
9 pm |
5.1 |
10 pm |
5.4 |
11 pm |
5.3 |
Portland, OR,
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