Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Park, WA
March 19, 2024 6:52 AM PDT (13:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:16 AM Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 12:44 PM Moonset 4:26 AM |
PZZ251 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cape Falcon Or Out 10 Nm- 234 Am Pdt Tue Mar 19 2024
Today - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 5 ft at 16 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning, then areas of fog in the afternoon.
Tonight - SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt early in the morning. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 5 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog. Areas of drizzle after midnight.
Wed - S wind 10 to 15 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 13 seconds. Areas of drizzle in the morning. Rain likely.
Wed night - S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 13 seconds. Rain likely.
Thu - S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 15 seconds. Rain likely.
Thu night - S wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt early in the evening. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 5 ft at 15 seconds. Rain.
Fri - SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Sat - S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 3 ft at 12 seconds and sw 4 ft at 5 seconds.
PZZ200 234 Am Pdt Tue Mar 19 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure offshore will weaken over the next couple of days. A more active weather pattern develops for the latter half of the week as low pressure systems approach the region.
Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 191007 AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 307 AM PDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm weather continues inland for one more day today, potentially challenging some record highs again this afternoon. Strong onshore flow will push through the Coast Range gaps this afternoon and evening, bringing a return to seasonable March temps for Wednesday. Weak frontal systems will brush the region with clouds and some precipitation beginning later tonight, though rain/drizzle will be light and mainly along the coast. A more substantial system will bring more widespread rain Friday, followed by cool and unsettled weather through the weekend.
SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday...GOES-West 10.3-3.9um fog product continues to have a very summer-like look, with solid marine stratus along the coast attempting to push inland through the gaps in the Coast Range. The marine layer has deepened to around 2000 ft per the North Bend PSL profiler, and KOTH-KEUG MSLP gradients have been around 2-3 mb all night. Both of these factors a pretty modest for a southwesterly marine push, and the stratus is lagging behind several 00z HRRR members in its inland advance. The HRRR appears to be most on-track as of 2 AM and it only shows limited stratus in the Willamette Valley this morning, which we favor. The best chance of morning fog/low clouds inland will be near rivers and in the south Willamette Valley this morning. The limited morning cloud cover, thermal low pressure persisting over the PDX metro, and 850 mb temps still around +10 deg C should support another unseasonably warm day inland. NBM deterministic guidance continues to be a few degrees too cool in general, with 90th percentile high temps verifying much better than the deterministic guidance throughout this warm spell.
Thus our temperature forecast for today continues to lean heavily on 90th percentile NBM temps for the PDX metro, Cascades, Columbia Gorge and Hood River Valley. Our forecast is closer to the deterministic NBM south and west of the PDX metro, as these areas will be more influenced by marine air today. This is shown well in NBM probabilistic guidance, which generally shows 25-35% chances of reaching 70 deg F west of I-5 and south of McMinnville, but much higher probabilities to the north and east. Areas just east of the Coast Range gaps will likely begin to feel a sea breeze this afternoon, but it will take longer for it to reach the PDX metro and Columbia Gorge.
All this said, it is a near certainty that a robust inland push of marine air will occur tonight/Wed morning as thermal low pressure shifts east of the Cascades and focuses over the Columbia Basin. This will turn MSLP decidedly onshore through the Columbia Gorge, bringing an end to our warm spell.
A shortwave upper trough will approach the Oregon coast from the SW tonight and Wednesday as upper level ridging shifts slowly eastward.
This will most likely deepen the marine layer enough for some drizzle or light rain along the coast and west slopes of the Coast Range.
Eventually cooler temps aloft will eradicate the marine inversions altogether, leading to a deeper moist layer and more widespread shower chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. Latest guidance has been trending toward shortwave ridging swinging through the CWA Thursday, leading to a few degrees of warming. That said, there are still plenty of members suggesting cooler temps and lingering precip, so we just went with NBM guidance for temps Thursday. However, NBM PoPs were quite high for the pattern, especially inland, especially considering the dry air mass Wednesday's shortwave is running into.
Therefore we undercut NBM PoPs by 15-30% through Thursday. Snow levels will remain high and QPF light (if it occurs), so impactful snow is not anticipated for the Cascades.
By the way, the Spring Equinox occurs this evening at 806 PM PDT, though our weather will feel much less spring-like as we head into the weekend and early next week. Weagle
LONG TERM
Friday through Monday...The general return toward more seasonable March weather appears locked in based on the good agreement shown in the last few WPC 500 mb cluster analyses. By Friday, our air mass should be well enough saturated to allow the next incoming low pressure system to bring widespread light to moderate rain to the district. As has been the case much of this rainy season, the primary atmospheric river impacts appear focused on California, while Oregon and Washington see mostly leftover moisture as it wraps around the north side of low pressure. This will keep QPF modest with Friday's system. As the associated upper trough moves into the Pac NW, lapse rates will steepen and we will need to watch for thunderstorms over the weekend. Otherwise the pattern this weekend can be characterized as seasonably cool and unsettled, with snow levels lowering to around the passes over the weekend.
A fast-approaching system from the Pacific may spread warm frontal precip back into the CWA as early as Sunday; snow levels will be a bit lower with this system and latest NBM probabilistic guidance shows a 50-70% chance of 4+ inches of snow for the Cascade passes by Monday afternoon. Weagle
AVIATION
Marine push underway this morning with stratus extending from the western slopes of the coastal mountain to the offshore waters. Guidance shows some stratus seeping into the valley or with the higher humidity, allow fog to develop. HRRR shows a 30-50 percent chance for low MVFR to IFR in the Willamette Valley south of Portland. With a 10-20 percent chance in the Portland area 12-18Z. Whatever develops inland is expected to dissipate by 18Z, but conditions IFR conditions likely to continue along the coast. Tonight will see a better push of stratus inland with low MVFR expected to fill the interior 06-09Z Wed. Overall, winds remain relatively light, less than 8 knots at all sites.
* Note: The observations out of KONP are generally limited to wind and pressure at this time. Periodically cloud cover, vis, and present wx are reported but are unreliable.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expect today with a 10-20 percent chance for low MVFR to IFR cigs 12-17Z per HRRR. But with observed AST-PDX pressure gradient of 1.1 mb at 08Z and satellite showing stratus not east of Cathlamet will be hard for cigs to make it to KPDX, but may see FEW010 briefly this morning. Tonight expect better marine push with low MVFR cigs developing after 08Z Wed. /mh
MARINE
Over the next couple of day will transition to a more active pattern as high pressure over the northeast Pacific weakens as incoming low pressure systems approach the region. Chances for winds gusting to 25 kt rise late Wednesday into Thursday. Late in the week and into the weekend model solutions diverge with the path and strength of low pressure systems affecting the region.
Seas around 5 ft likely to continue through the week, but could build above 10 ft over the weekend if the stronger model solutions come to pass.
/mh
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 307 AM PDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm weather continues inland for one more day today, potentially challenging some record highs again this afternoon. Strong onshore flow will push through the Coast Range gaps this afternoon and evening, bringing a return to seasonable March temps for Wednesday. Weak frontal systems will brush the region with clouds and some precipitation beginning later tonight, though rain/drizzle will be light and mainly along the coast. A more substantial system will bring more widespread rain Friday, followed by cool and unsettled weather through the weekend.
SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday...GOES-West 10.3-3.9um fog product continues to have a very summer-like look, with solid marine stratus along the coast attempting to push inland through the gaps in the Coast Range. The marine layer has deepened to around 2000 ft per the North Bend PSL profiler, and KOTH-KEUG MSLP gradients have been around 2-3 mb all night. Both of these factors a pretty modest for a southwesterly marine push, and the stratus is lagging behind several 00z HRRR members in its inland advance. The HRRR appears to be most on-track as of 2 AM and it only shows limited stratus in the Willamette Valley this morning, which we favor. The best chance of morning fog/low clouds inland will be near rivers and in the south Willamette Valley this morning. The limited morning cloud cover, thermal low pressure persisting over the PDX metro, and 850 mb temps still around +10 deg C should support another unseasonably warm day inland. NBM deterministic guidance continues to be a few degrees too cool in general, with 90th percentile high temps verifying much better than the deterministic guidance throughout this warm spell.
Thus our temperature forecast for today continues to lean heavily on 90th percentile NBM temps for the PDX metro, Cascades, Columbia Gorge and Hood River Valley. Our forecast is closer to the deterministic NBM south and west of the PDX metro, as these areas will be more influenced by marine air today. This is shown well in NBM probabilistic guidance, which generally shows 25-35% chances of reaching 70 deg F west of I-5 and south of McMinnville, but much higher probabilities to the north and east. Areas just east of the Coast Range gaps will likely begin to feel a sea breeze this afternoon, but it will take longer for it to reach the PDX metro and Columbia Gorge.
All this said, it is a near certainty that a robust inland push of marine air will occur tonight/Wed morning as thermal low pressure shifts east of the Cascades and focuses over the Columbia Basin. This will turn MSLP decidedly onshore through the Columbia Gorge, bringing an end to our warm spell.
A shortwave upper trough will approach the Oregon coast from the SW tonight and Wednesday as upper level ridging shifts slowly eastward.
This will most likely deepen the marine layer enough for some drizzle or light rain along the coast and west slopes of the Coast Range.
Eventually cooler temps aloft will eradicate the marine inversions altogether, leading to a deeper moist layer and more widespread shower chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. Latest guidance has been trending toward shortwave ridging swinging through the CWA Thursday, leading to a few degrees of warming. That said, there are still plenty of members suggesting cooler temps and lingering precip, so we just went with NBM guidance for temps Thursday. However, NBM PoPs were quite high for the pattern, especially inland, especially considering the dry air mass Wednesday's shortwave is running into.
Therefore we undercut NBM PoPs by 15-30% through Thursday. Snow levels will remain high and QPF light (if it occurs), so impactful snow is not anticipated for the Cascades.
By the way, the Spring Equinox occurs this evening at 806 PM PDT, though our weather will feel much less spring-like as we head into the weekend and early next week. Weagle
LONG TERM
Friday through Monday...The general return toward more seasonable March weather appears locked in based on the good agreement shown in the last few WPC 500 mb cluster analyses. By Friday, our air mass should be well enough saturated to allow the next incoming low pressure system to bring widespread light to moderate rain to the district. As has been the case much of this rainy season, the primary atmospheric river impacts appear focused on California, while Oregon and Washington see mostly leftover moisture as it wraps around the north side of low pressure. This will keep QPF modest with Friday's system. As the associated upper trough moves into the Pac NW, lapse rates will steepen and we will need to watch for thunderstorms over the weekend. Otherwise the pattern this weekend can be characterized as seasonably cool and unsettled, with snow levels lowering to around the passes over the weekend.
A fast-approaching system from the Pacific may spread warm frontal precip back into the CWA as early as Sunday; snow levels will be a bit lower with this system and latest NBM probabilistic guidance shows a 50-70% chance of 4+ inches of snow for the Cascade passes by Monday afternoon. Weagle
AVIATION
Marine push underway this morning with stratus extending from the western slopes of the coastal mountain to the offshore waters. Guidance shows some stratus seeping into the valley or with the higher humidity, allow fog to develop. HRRR shows a 30-50 percent chance for low MVFR to IFR in the Willamette Valley south of Portland. With a 10-20 percent chance in the Portland area 12-18Z. Whatever develops inland is expected to dissipate by 18Z, but conditions IFR conditions likely to continue along the coast. Tonight will see a better push of stratus inland with low MVFR expected to fill the interior 06-09Z Wed. Overall, winds remain relatively light, less than 8 knots at all sites.
* Note: The observations out of KONP are generally limited to wind and pressure at this time. Periodically cloud cover, vis, and present wx are reported but are unreliable.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expect today with a 10-20 percent chance for low MVFR to IFR cigs 12-17Z per HRRR. But with observed AST-PDX pressure gradient of 1.1 mb at 08Z and satellite showing stratus not east of Cathlamet will be hard for cigs to make it to KPDX, but may see FEW010 briefly this morning. Tonight expect better marine push with low MVFR cigs developing after 08Z Wed. /mh
MARINE
Over the next couple of day will transition to a more active pattern as high pressure over the northeast Pacific weakens as incoming low pressure systems approach the region. Chances for winds gusting to 25 kt rise late Wednesday into Thursday. Late in the week and into the weekend model solutions diverge with the path and strength of low pressure systems affecting the region.
Seas around 5 ft likely to continue through the week, but could build above 10 ft over the weekend if the stronger model solutions come to pass.
/mh
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA | 15 mi | 52 min | S 5.1G | 47°F | 53°F | 30.09 | ||
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 | 21 mi | 56 min | 51°F | 5 ft | ||||
46211 - Grays Harbor, WA (036) | 27 mi | 56 min | 51°F | 6 ft | ||||
WPTW1 - 9441102 - Westport, WA | 28 mi | 76 min | SSE 2.9G | 44°F | 52°F | 30.04 | ||
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) | 42 mi | 56 min | 51°F | 7 ft |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Tide / Current for Nahcotta, Willipa Bay, Washington
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Nahcotta
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:29 AM PDT 4.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM PDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:19 AM PDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:56 AM PDT 9.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:43 PM PDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:27 PM PDT 1.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:28 PM PDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:49 PM PDT 8.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:29 AM PDT 4.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:26 AM PDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:19 AM PDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:56 AM PDT 9.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:43 PM PDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:27 PM PDT 1.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:28 PM PDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:49 PM PDT 8.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Nahcotta, Willipa Bay, Washington, Tide feet
12 am |
7.2 |
1 am |
6.6 |
2 am |
5.6 |
3 am |
4.8 |
4 am |
4.8 |
5 am |
5.6 |
6 am |
6.5 |
7 am |
7.4 |
8 am |
8.2 |
9 am |
8.8 |
10 am |
9.1 |
11 am |
8.7 |
12 pm |
7.7 |
1 pm |
6.2 |
2 pm |
4.4 |
3 pm |
2.6 |
4 pm |
1.5 |
5 pm |
1.5 |
6 pm |
2.2 |
7 pm |
3.1 |
8 pm |
4.3 |
9 pm |
5.7 |
10 pm |
6.9 |
11 pm |
7.8 |
Naselle River
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:55 AM PDT 5.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM PDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:19 AM PDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:57 AM PDT 9.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:43 PM PDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:59 PM PDT 1.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:28 PM PDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:53 PM PDT 8.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:55 AM PDT 5.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM PDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:19 AM PDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:57 AM PDT 9.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:43 PM PDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:59 PM PDT 1.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:28 PM PDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:53 PM PDT 8.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Naselle River, swing bridge, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet
12 am |
7.9 |
1 am |
7.5 |
2 am |
6.7 |
3 am |
5.8 |
4 am |
5.5 |
5 am |
5.9 |
6 am |
6.7 |
7 am |
7.5 |
8 am |
8.4 |
9 am |
9.2 |
10 am |
9.5 |
11 am |
9.1 |
12 pm |
8.2 |
1 pm |
7 |
2 pm |
5.6 |
3 pm |
3.8 |
4 pm |
2.3 |
5 pm |
1.8 |
6 pm |
2.2 |
7 pm |
3.1 |
8 pm |
4.4 |
9 pm |
6.1 |
10 pm |
7.5 |
11 pm |
8.4 |
Langley,Hill/Gray,Harbor,WA
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