Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM Moonrise 5:13 PM   Moonset 3:06 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 226 Pm Pdt Mon May 20 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening - .
In the main channel -
General seas - 2 to 4 ft building to 5 to 7 ft Tuesday afternoon.
First ebb - Ebb current of 3.08 kt at 339 pm Monday. Seas 5 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 5.26 kt at 359 am Tuesday. Seas 5 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 3.07 kt at 421 pm Tuesday. Seas 6 ft.

PZZ200 226 Pm Pdt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - The next front arrives Tuesday morning. Seas become increasingly steep later Tue into Wed then subside Thu. High pressure returns Thu followed by another weather disturbance Friday into Saturday.

FXUS66 KPQR 202133 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 231 PM PDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Next front approaching, with increasing clouds later tonight. That front will push across region on Tue, with areas of rain. Showers Tue night into Wed as air mass turns more unstable.
Will maintain unsettled with daytime temperatures staying near to slightly below that normally expected for mid-May.

SHORT TERM
(Monday afternoon through Wednesday)...
Onshore flow will keep region under pleasant temperatures through rest of this afternoon into the evening.

Next front is well offshore, and approaching. As it does, will see increasing clouds overnight. While most areas remain dry overnight, do think will get spotty light rain spreading onto Washington coast, and as far south as Tillamook toward daybreak Tuesday. Rain will will spread across region through the morning, with rather cloudy and damp day on tap for most. Rainfall will vary on location, with much lighter rainfall as move southward across western Oregon. Current expectations are a 0.50 up to 1 inch along the coast, and into the North Oregon Coast Range and Willapa Hills, and in the South Washington Cascades down to Mount Hood area. Farther south, 0.25 to 0.50 on the central Oregon coast as well as over the central Cascades. Rainfall across the interior 0.25 to 0.50 in the Cowlitz Valley to the Portland metro, with rainfall decreasing as move southward, with 0.05 to 0.20 inch from Corvallis to Eugene.

Models still depicting the front moving onshore mid-late Tuesday afternoon, and shifting eastward to the Cascades by mid-evening. May have a brief lull between the rain with clouds breaks. But, cooler air aloft will spread into the region. As such, this will create an unstable air mass, with showers resulting for Tue night. On Wed, an upper low over the Gulf of Alaska will drop southeast and inland over the Pac NW. This will provide extra enhancement to the modest instability over the region, with heftier showers, some with small hail. At moment, the low should track from northwest Washington early Wed am to northeast Oregon by Wed afternoon. Following that trend, the late afternoon may end up being a bit drier for areas west of the I-5 corridor, as showers become more Cascades focused as flow turns more north to northwest behind the low. Interestingly, air mass instability could be enough to support a thunderstorm or two, but for now will not mention. But, bears watching, considering the track of the upper low and associated cool pool aloft.

Weak ridging on Thursday will bring mostly dry day. But, still have little energy rotating around the upper low that will be over the northern Rockies. As such, could still have a shower to two over the Cascades. But, with warming aloft, and meager moisture aloft, would not be much of a chance. /Rockey


LONG TERM
(Friday through Sunday)...WPC 500 mb clusters continue to indicate a general trough pattern Friday into the weekend, though specific details on timing and location of weather systems and any potential precipitation amounts are still very uncertain at this time. One aspect that does seem a little more certain is temperatures are expected to remain fairly mild through the weekend. NBM indicates a 75-95% chance that interior lowland temperatures will warm back into the 60s and remain in the 60s through the weekend. /HEC


AVIATION
Stratocumulus continues this afternoon with most coverage north of KSLE as onshore flow strongest there. VFR prevailing with cigs 4000-5000 feet. Expect cloud coverage to decrease some through the afternoon and evening hours. But onshore flow continues ahead of next front for later Tuesday. So, overnight expect MVFR to IFR to develop at the coast, while inland remains VFR with mid-level cigs around 4000-6000 ft developing overnight. Lower cigs form inland early Tuesday with HRRR indicating 40-70% chance for MVFR cigs 2000-3000 ft roughly 12-16Z Tue. There should be several hours of VFR conditions, then as the rain spreads inland through Tue afternoon, so does the MVFR cigs.

Winds will be mostly light then pick up to 5-10 kt. Occasional gusts to 18-22 kt possible during the afternoon into the early evening along the coast before decreasing again overnight.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR continues with cigs around 4000 ft which is expected to become more scattered this evening. With continued onshore flow expect low VFR to MVFR cigs to redevelop Tuesday morning. HRRR indicating around 70% chance for MVFR 12-16Z Tue, followed by a break, then MVFR likely returning (60-80% chance)
after 21Z Tue as rain spreads inland. Winds will be northwesterly and around 5-10 kt although gusts around 15-20 knots will be possible around 00-04z.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory with steep seas of 7-8ft at 7-8 seconds, along with a small longer period (18 seconds) southwest swell. Wind generally Northwest 10 to 15 kt with brief gusts to 20 kt through this evening. Calmer conditions return tonight into early Tuesday morning, albeit briefly, before the next frontal passage arrives on Tuesday bringing rain and Small Craft Advisory Winds ahead and behind the front. Confidence is high (70-80%) wind gusts reach into the 20-25 knot range for the outer waters north of Cape Foulweather Tuesday morning ahead of the front and evening/night in the post-frontal environment. With the persistent northwest fetch in the post-frontal environment, will also see seas become very steep Tuesday night into Wednesday with greatest impacts to PZZ271 as seas rise to 10 to 13 ft with period 9 to 10 seconds.

Looking ahead, calmer winds/seas return Thursday followed by the potential for yet another weather disturbance moving into the region late Friday/Saturday continuing the rather progressive and active weather pattern. /mh -Schuldt

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ251-252-271-272.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ271>273.

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Nahcotta, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Palix River
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Mon -- 04:05 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM PDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:34 PM PDT     6.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:11 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:19 PM PDT     2.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:49 PM PDT     Sunset
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Palix River, south fork, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

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