Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yakima, WA
March 19, 2024 6:24 AM PDT (13:24 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:03 AM Sunset 7:15 PM Moonrise 12:28 PM Moonset 4:12 AM |
Area Discussion for - Pendleton, OR
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FXUS66 KPDT 190930 AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 230 AM PDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday night...
A large ridge of high pressure will remain over the Pacific Northwest for one more day. This ridge will bring dry and unseasonably warm, and possibly record breaking high temperatures once again. Today looks to be the warmest day of the stretch of warm weather.
The ridge will move southward tonight as southwesterly flow develops in advance of low pressure and a trough that will approach the coast. The low will weaken, but the trough will move onshore along the Oregon coast later Wednesday, bringing a chance of precipitation mainly to the mountains. Precipitation chances will continue into Thursday, as the flow becomes more zonal and the trough exits the area. However, by later Thursday into early Friday, precipitation chances should decrease. Most locations outside of the mountains will remain dry, however, there is about a 30% chance of rain along the Blue Mountain Foothills Wednesday night into Thursday.
As the trough moves onshore on Wednesday, there will be some instability, mainly in the afternoon and early evening from Pendleton south and eastward. There are several hundred J/kg of CAPE and LI values do make it as low as -1.5 to -2 degrees C. So there is at least some chance of thunder.
Wednesday afternoon also looks a bit breezy, with winds gusting as high as 25 to 30 mph, especially in portions of the Columbia Basin and Simcoe Highlands but latest guidance is not as strong and widespread as previous. Breezy conditions will continue into Thursday.
Finally, as far as today's high temperatures go, most locations will be in the 70s, with many areas in the mid to possibly even upper 70s in the Columbia Basin. The ECWMF EFI has virtually our whole area in 0.8 to 0.9 for high temperature anomaly today. with portions of eastern Oregon in 0.9 to 0.95. There are several ECMWF ensemble members as high as 78/79 in the Columbia Basin, though the GFS ensemble members do not get that high. These temperatures These temperatures are approaching 20 degrees above normal.
High temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler but still very warm, with highs ranging from the mid 609s to the lower 70s. These temperatures are still about 10 degrees above normal. The ECMWF EFI still has a large area of 0.8 to 0.9 across the region for high temperatures.
By Thursday, temperatures cool down a bit more and will generally be in the low to mid 60s in most areas with upper 60s in the Columbia Basin.
Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s tonight then in the 30s and 40s Wednesday night and Thursday night.
LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...The long term will be characterized by a pattern shift that will bring active weather back to the area.
The upper level ridge will be mostly to the east as an upper level low begins to make its way onshore. As this upper level low traverses over the Cascades, there will be an increase in winds and with the cold air advection moving in along with it, will drive the snow levels down steadily through the period. Widespread rain will also be associated with this pattern shift with cooler temperatures and upper elevation snow.
Even with the synoptic changes and the increase in winds, rain and snow, the only potential for highlights will be for hydro concerns.
With that said, the RFC forecast for the rivers shows that John Day River at Service Creek and the Naches River at Cliffdell will see a rise to at or just over action stage by Sunday with all the incoming rain in the forecast. This will continue to be monitored through the period.
Friday the models are in firm agreement with the leading edge of the upper level low being onshore and along the Cascades. The primary variance within the model ensembles is with the amplitude of the low. However, all models clearly show precipitation will accompany the system beginning along the Cascades before becoming widespread by Friday late afternoon. NBM shows the snow levels to hover between 4900 to 5500 ft on Friday so any precipitation below that will fall as rain. Raw ensembles show 30-60% probabilities of up to 0.05 inches of rain along the Cascades and east slopes and hedging towards the western portion of the Basin with 40-60% showing a dusting of 0.01 inches of snow above 5000 ft. As for the lower elevations, the raw ensembles show a 40-60% chance of greater than 0.05 inches of rain through Bend/Redmond and along the lower elevations across the east. Southwest flow aloft from the system will mix down bringing breezy conditions in the afternoon across central OR and across the eastern mountains. Models continue to show widespread rain across the entire region again through Saturday. 80- 90% of the raw ensembles show an additional 0.1 to 0.25 inches of rain through the lower elevations, near 0.5-0.6 inches through the higher elevations and a slight rain shadow leaving only 0.1-0.15 inches through the Basin and 0.04 inches through central OR. Snow levels will decrease slightly ranging between 3000 to 3900 ft Saturday with 60% of the raw ensembles in agreement that higher elevations will see between 0.50-1 inch of snow across the Cascades and even less across the eastern mountains. Westerly winds will also pick up Saturday afternoon across the majority of the region before decreasing overnight.
Saturday night through Monday the models begin to differentiate from one another but, the general flow remains mostly the same with generally NNW flow aloft. With this, cooler air will be ushered across the forecast period dropping the snow levels across the region to 2600 to 3000 ft. Many of the models show that there will continue to be precipitation however, the majority of the precipitation will be along the higher terrains. NBM shows only 10- 20% chances of precipitation through the Basin, 30-60% shows near 0.04 inches along the foothills of the Blues and along the eastern slopes of the Cascades. Above 2600 ft, 50-70% of the ensembles show the Cascades will see between 1 to 2 inches of snow while the eastern mountains have a 30-60% probability of 0.1 inches with of course higher amounts above 2600 ft. Tuesday the models are in a bit of disarray however, the NBM shows the region to continue to be under a wet pattern with PoPs decreasing from the previous days.
Temperatures will remain above normal with high EFI of 0.7-0.90, showing an anomalous event for maximum temperatures within the forecast area for Thursday. By Friday the majority of the region will return to near normal temperatures. 70-90% of the raw ensembles show the Columbia and John Day Basins as well as the foothills to see temperatures in the low to mid 60s, central OR and the Gorge will see upper 50s to low 60s while the remainder of the region will see mid 40s to 50s. These temperatures will decrease slowly through the period bottoming out Monday but by only 2-5 degrees.
Bennese/90
AVIATION
12Z TAFs...VFR conditions currently across all TAF sites and will remain as such through the forecast period. CIGs will be primarily SKC with winds below 10kts with the exception of DLS having breezy conditions near 23Z of 15G24kts lasting through 03Z.
Bennese/90
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 73 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 20 ALW 76 49 70 47 / 0 0 0 30 PSC 77 46 72 47 / 0 0 0 10 YKM 76 40 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 77 46 71 45 / 0 0 0 10 ELN 73 41 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 72 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 10 LGD 70 41 68 41 / 0 0 10 50 GCD 70 40 67 39 / 0 0 10 30 DLS 75 46 65 46 / 0 0 0 10
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 230 AM PDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday night...
A large ridge of high pressure will remain over the Pacific Northwest for one more day. This ridge will bring dry and unseasonably warm, and possibly record breaking high temperatures once again. Today looks to be the warmest day of the stretch of warm weather.
The ridge will move southward tonight as southwesterly flow develops in advance of low pressure and a trough that will approach the coast. The low will weaken, but the trough will move onshore along the Oregon coast later Wednesday, bringing a chance of precipitation mainly to the mountains. Precipitation chances will continue into Thursday, as the flow becomes more zonal and the trough exits the area. However, by later Thursday into early Friday, precipitation chances should decrease. Most locations outside of the mountains will remain dry, however, there is about a 30% chance of rain along the Blue Mountain Foothills Wednesday night into Thursday.
As the trough moves onshore on Wednesday, there will be some instability, mainly in the afternoon and early evening from Pendleton south and eastward. There are several hundred J/kg of CAPE and LI values do make it as low as -1.5 to -2 degrees C. So there is at least some chance of thunder.
Wednesday afternoon also looks a bit breezy, with winds gusting as high as 25 to 30 mph, especially in portions of the Columbia Basin and Simcoe Highlands but latest guidance is not as strong and widespread as previous. Breezy conditions will continue into Thursday.
Finally, as far as today's high temperatures go, most locations will be in the 70s, with many areas in the mid to possibly even upper 70s in the Columbia Basin. The ECWMF EFI has virtually our whole area in 0.8 to 0.9 for high temperature anomaly today. with portions of eastern Oregon in 0.9 to 0.95. There are several ECMWF ensemble members as high as 78/79 in the Columbia Basin, though the GFS ensemble members do not get that high. These temperatures These temperatures are approaching 20 degrees above normal.
High temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler but still very warm, with highs ranging from the mid 609s to the lower 70s. These temperatures are still about 10 degrees above normal. The ECMWF EFI still has a large area of 0.8 to 0.9 across the region for high temperatures.
By Thursday, temperatures cool down a bit more and will generally be in the low to mid 60s in most areas with upper 60s in the Columbia Basin.
Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s tonight then in the 30s and 40s Wednesday night and Thursday night.
LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...The long term will be characterized by a pattern shift that will bring active weather back to the area.
The upper level ridge will be mostly to the east as an upper level low begins to make its way onshore. As this upper level low traverses over the Cascades, there will be an increase in winds and with the cold air advection moving in along with it, will drive the snow levels down steadily through the period. Widespread rain will also be associated with this pattern shift with cooler temperatures and upper elevation snow.
Even with the synoptic changes and the increase in winds, rain and snow, the only potential for highlights will be for hydro concerns.
With that said, the RFC forecast for the rivers shows that John Day River at Service Creek and the Naches River at Cliffdell will see a rise to at or just over action stage by Sunday with all the incoming rain in the forecast. This will continue to be monitored through the period.
Friday the models are in firm agreement with the leading edge of the upper level low being onshore and along the Cascades. The primary variance within the model ensembles is with the amplitude of the low. However, all models clearly show precipitation will accompany the system beginning along the Cascades before becoming widespread by Friday late afternoon. NBM shows the snow levels to hover between 4900 to 5500 ft on Friday so any precipitation below that will fall as rain. Raw ensembles show 30-60% probabilities of up to 0.05 inches of rain along the Cascades and east slopes and hedging towards the western portion of the Basin with 40-60% showing a dusting of 0.01 inches of snow above 5000 ft. As for the lower elevations, the raw ensembles show a 40-60% chance of greater than 0.05 inches of rain through Bend/Redmond and along the lower elevations across the east. Southwest flow aloft from the system will mix down bringing breezy conditions in the afternoon across central OR and across the eastern mountains. Models continue to show widespread rain across the entire region again through Saturday. 80- 90% of the raw ensembles show an additional 0.1 to 0.25 inches of rain through the lower elevations, near 0.5-0.6 inches through the higher elevations and a slight rain shadow leaving only 0.1-0.15 inches through the Basin and 0.04 inches through central OR. Snow levels will decrease slightly ranging between 3000 to 3900 ft Saturday with 60% of the raw ensembles in agreement that higher elevations will see between 0.50-1 inch of snow across the Cascades and even less across the eastern mountains. Westerly winds will also pick up Saturday afternoon across the majority of the region before decreasing overnight.
Saturday night through Monday the models begin to differentiate from one another but, the general flow remains mostly the same with generally NNW flow aloft. With this, cooler air will be ushered across the forecast period dropping the snow levels across the region to 2600 to 3000 ft. Many of the models show that there will continue to be precipitation however, the majority of the precipitation will be along the higher terrains. NBM shows only 10- 20% chances of precipitation through the Basin, 30-60% shows near 0.04 inches along the foothills of the Blues and along the eastern slopes of the Cascades. Above 2600 ft, 50-70% of the ensembles show the Cascades will see between 1 to 2 inches of snow while the eastern mountains have a 30-60% probability of 0.1 inches with of course higher amounts above 2600 ft. Tuesday the models are in a bit of disarray however, the NBM shows the region to continue to be under a wet pattern with PoPs decreasing from the previous days.
Temperatures will remain above normal with high EFI of 0.7-0.90, showing an anomalous event for maximum temperatures within the forecast area for Thursday. By Friday the majority of the region will return to near normal temperatures. 70-90% of the raw ensembles show the Columbia and John Day Basins as well as the foothills to see temperatures in the low to mid 60s, central OR and the Gorge will see upper 50s to low 60s while the remainder of the region will see mid 40s to 50s. These temperatures will decrease slowly through the period bottoming out Monday but by only 2-5 degrees.
Bennese/90
AVIATION
12Z TAFs...VFR conditions currently across all TAF sites and will remain as such through the forecast period. CIGs will be primarily SKC with winds below 10kts with the exception of DLS having breezy conditions near 23Z of 15G24kts lasting through 03Z.
Bennese/90
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 73 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 20 ALW 76 49 70 47 / 0 0 0 30 PSC 77 46 72 47 / 0 0 0 10 YKM 76 40 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 77 46 71 45 / 0 0 0 10 ELN 73 41 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 72 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 10 LGD 70 41 68 41 / 0 0 10 50 GCD 70 40 67 39 / 0 0 10 30 DLS 75 46 65 46 / 0 0 0 10
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KYKM YAKIMA AIR TERMINAL/MCALLISTER FIELD,WA | 3 sm | 31 min | WSW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 41°F | 34°F | 75% | 30.03 |
Pendleton, OR,
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