Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 11:01 PM   Moonset 6:09 AM

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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 245 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 25 2024
combined seas 6 to 8 ft. Bar conditions moderate. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 630 pm this evening, 630 am Friday, and 700 pm Friday evening. The ebb Friday morning will be strong

PZZ100 245 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - A low pressure system and associated cold front is currently moving through the area tonight into tomorrow. A weak ridge will quickly move through Saturday morning before another front moves through Saturday evening. The active pattern continues into next week with several additional systems expected.

FXUS66 KPQR 260443 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 943 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showery and unsettled conditions continue through the weekend into next week as the Pacific Northwest remains under the influence of a rather progressive spring-time weather pattern. Beyond the more persistent chances for rainfall going forward snow levels are expected to drop near pass level(4500ft)
tonight into Friday although outside of slushy pavement accumulation most appreciable impacts stay above 5,500ft. The weather trends even a touch cooler early next week.


SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday night...This afternoon satellite and radar indicate the bulk of the steadier precipitation has begun to decrease and break to showers as the frontal boundary moves inland ad we quickly transition to post- frontal shower activity. With cooler air now filtering in aloft, snow levels will gradually decrease tonight bottoming out near 4,300-4,500ft come sunrise Friday morning. As a result wet snow likely returns to the higher pass areas like Santiam and Willamette, though that’s not to say snow or a rain/snow mix can’t mix down to the highest reaches of US-26 due to the more convective nature of the precipitation. Still, even at Santiam and Willamette pass the warm antecedent conditions will help to limit pavement accumulation with the bulk of the impacts occurring above 5,300-5,500ft. Due to the late season nature of the snowfall will maintain the current Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades through Friday evening. It’s worth mentioning as far as general precipitation chances are concerned through Friday, models maintain the most frequent showers over the coast range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades/Cascade foothills although the passage of the broader trough axis through western WA/OR Friday midday and afternoon likely servers to increase shower activity region-wide; even across the Willamette Valley and SW Washington.

Late Friday into Saturday the upper-level trough deepens and quickly progress southeastward into the four corners region of the Great Basin. We’ll briefly see upper-level heights rise over the region due to the passage of a weak transient shortwave ridge and both deterministic/ensemble guidance seem confident in a lull or at least noticeable decrease in lingering showers over the lower elevations, especially the central and southern Willamette Valley. However, the arrival of fast moving upper- level shortwave and frontal boundary extending southward off a parent low parked over the gulf of Alaska increases chances for precipitation Saturday afternoon into the evening. At least precipitation amounts don’t look particularly noteworthy due to the quick progression of the aforementioned feature on Saturday with an additional ~0.1” for the inland valleys and 0.3-0.5” for the coast range/Cascades. Once the front passes showers chances generally revert back to the elevated terrain features around western WA/OR the second half of the night. Snow levels Friday night through Saturday night continue to fluctuate between 4500-5500ft. -Schuldt

LONG TERM
Sunday through Wednesday night...For the early to middle portion of next week confidence is high the pattern stays rather progressive, with fronts moving off the northeast Pacific into the Pacific NW. During the late Sunday into Monday time period yet another front will push across the region with post-frontal showers on tap by at least the second half of Monday - model uncertainty is higher regarding the exact timing of this disturbance. Still a bit cooler than that expected for late April, with overall temperatures in the lowlands in the 50s to lower 60s. Snow levels will run 3000 to 4000 ft, which will maintain some snow at times for the higher terrain of the foothills, as well as most of the Cascades.

Few showers linger around region on Tuesday, but think most of the day will end up being mostly dry for the inland valleys, as a weak transient ridge glides over the region. But, models show another potent front offshore later Tue night/early Wed, with that front pushing inland late Wed into Wed night. With this, does look to be more rainy that showery by Thursday. After that, models still in quite a bit of flux with low forecast confidence due to large discrepancies in the longwave pattern over the eastern Pacific and CONUS. -Schuldt/Rockey

AVIATION
Showers continue through Friday as an upper level trough slides west to east across the region. This will result in mountain obscuration, while inland valley locations will see a mix of VFR and MVFR. Some rainshadowing occurring east of the coast range helping to bring areas of VFR in the valley as of 05Z Fri.
However, guidance indicating about 50-90 percent chance for cigs 2000-3000 ft through 00Z Sat, and a 30-50 percent chance for cigs 1000-2000 ft 09Z Fri to 21Z Fri. South winds will continue in the 8 to 12 kt range through Fri with gusts 15 to 20 kt returning after 20Z Fri.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
The AWOS at KMMV is still out of commission. There is no estimated time of repair.

PDX AND APPROACHES...A mix of VFR and MVFR with passing showers through the TAF period. If there are any trends to the forecast, HRRR guidance indicating maybe more persistent MVFR cigs after 15Z Fri with a 60- 70 percent chance for cigs 2000-3000 ft, then deceasing to 30-50 percent chance after 21Z Fri.
/mh

MARINE
The warm front has passed, though post-frontal conditions allow the Small Craft Advisory to continue, with gusts up to 30 kt possible, decreasing after midnight tonight. Seas are choppy, currently sitting around 7-10 ft at 9 seconds.

Winds turn more westerly/northwesterly Thursday night into Friday as the low pressure system pushes inland. Winds begin to ease slightly with gusts to 20-25 kt. However, a westerly swell will enter the waters and build seas to around 9-11 ft. These elevated seas are brief, as the swell height falls Friday night to Saturday. The next frontal system arrives on Saturday, will return gusty southwesterly winds. The latest NBM has decreased confidence in gales, only around 10% on Saturday.

-Alviz/JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PDT Friday night for ORZ127-128.

WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273.

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Toke Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:36 AM PDT     9.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:09 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:34 AM PDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:09 PM PDT     7.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:19 PM PDT     3.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Toke Point, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Grays Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:48 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:27 AM PDT     -3.59 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:09 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:01 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:46 PM PDT     2.20 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:18 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:55 PM PDT     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:20 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:44 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current, knots

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