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FXUS63 KBIS 270559 AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1259 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of showers (70 to 100 percent) will continue this evening over most of western and central North Dakota before showers gradually diminishing west to east. Isolated thunderstorms are possible through early this evening, mainly south. Severe weather is not expected.

- Expect low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for showers across southern North Dakota Saturday and Saturday night. A stronger storm system will then bring higher chances for showers (90 percent southeast to 10 percent northwest) on Sunday and Sunday night.

- We will see cooler temperatures today through Sunday and then a warming trend is on tap for the next work week when return to near/above normal values.

UPDATE
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Band of light to moderate rain showers continues from south central into northeastern North Dakota, with scattered light showers to the east of this band. Modified POPs through the morning based on latest radar imagery and near term/high res model trends, with showers ending over central ND and the James River Valley by mid-morning Saturday. Will monitor for the potential for fog southwest overnight, right now high res guidance isn't in agreement and winds will remain steady out of the north/northeast.

UPDATE Issued at 1006 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Rain continues over central North Dakota, with some locations already pushing over an inch of rainfall, mainly over north central North Dakota. Expect rain to continue for a few more hours before a gradual dissipation and shift southeastward.

UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Rain showers continue, primarily over central North Dakota.
Latest guidance continues to show the trend of precipitation diminishing over the west this evening, but probably lingering later into the night over central parts of the state before diminishing, possibly hanging on until early Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A stacked low continues to spin in the vicinity of Nebraska to our south. For the rest of today and into tonight, we will see bands of light to moderate rain showers spiraling around this low. This will mean more widespread showers today and tonight for most of western and central North Dakota. The one major exception will be across the far west as we have seen some clearing here. Some observed dry slotting in the James River Valley could also lead to some more hit and miss activity.

Currently, SPC mesoanalysis shows about 500 J/kg of surface based CAPE across the southwest, mainly where we have some clearing. Given a fairly stable atmosphere where current precipitation is located, any thunder later his afternoon would likely be isolated and confined mainly to the south.

Regarding precipitation totals for this first wave through Saturday morning, the NBM still suggests medium to high chances (40 to 80 percent) for a half inch of additional rain or more across much of the central and east. Increasing that threshold to an inch and the probabilities dip more into the 10 to 20 percent range.

The other story for today will be ongoing near critical fire weather conditions across the far northwest. We have seen some clearing across the west with increasing winds out of the north behind a slow moving cold front. A dry lower atmosphere here along with temperatures that have risen into the upper 60s and lower 70s, has led to humidity values dropping into the upper teens and lower 20s (percent). Sustained winds thus far have risen to as high as 25 mph over portions of Divide and Williams counties to go with lower humidity but the spotty nature of stronger winds should keep critical fire weather conditions from developing uninterrupted for 3 hours or more.

Most of the precipitation should move out overnight tonight or Saturday morning. Most will likely then see a break in rain chances through the day on Saturday before another low ejects out of the central Plains and into the northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. There are still a couple of scenarios for the eventual track of this low, and much will depend on how strong a ridge axis becomes to our east. If we see a stronger ridge axis, the track of the low may end up further west, bringing widespread rain to much of the area. A weaker ridge axis to our east would allow for the low to track further east, leaving the heaviest precipitation to our south central and eastern areas.
For now, both scenarios appear to have about equal chances.
According to the latest NBM run, the best chance for another quarter inch or more of rain will be across portions of the south central and James River Valley (40 to 70 percent).

After precipitation moves out Monday morning, we should see a progressive upper level ridge axis moving in, leading to some clearing from west to east through the day. We should also see some warmer temperatures with highs ranging from the low to mid 50s east (under lingering cloud cover), to the mid to upper 60s west (under a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky). Highs will be fairly similar through the rest of the work week, mainly in the 50s and 60s. A couple of quick moving waves will then propagate across the region through the week with the strongest wave likely to move through Monday night and Tuesday (low to medium chances for showers across most of the forecast area). Low chances for showers should continue then until at least Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue over central and eastern North Dakota (James River Valley) including the KMOT, KBIS, and KJMS terminals through tonight. KDIK also looks to see some low ceilings overnight, but more uncertain how long that will last. There will be a gradual improvement from west to east Saturday morning at most terminals, with KJMS seeing possible MVFR cigs persisting through the day. VFR conditions will continue to prevail over northwest North Dakota (KXWA).

BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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