Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cleveland, ND

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 9:16PM Saturday May 25, 2019 6:46 AM CDT (11:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:15AMMoonset 10:57AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cleveland, ND
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location: 46.89, -99.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Bismarck, ND
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Fxus63 kbis 251143
afdbis
area forecast discussion
national weather service bismarck nd
643 am cdt Sat may 25 2019

Update
Issued at 620 am cdt Sat may 25 2019
weak high pressure was situated over western and central nd early
this morning. With clearing skies the west is seeing temperatures
in the mid 30s and likely some patchy frost. Back edge of low
clouds is along the highway 83 corridor and will continue to
porpagate east this morning. Some patchy light returns showing up
east of highway 83 and noticed some raindrops on area webcams so
will add a mention of some morning sprinkles here. Updated text
products will be out shortly.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 243 am cdt Sat may 25 2019
a mainly dry and quiet day highlights the short term period today.

The system that brought showers and thunderstorms on Friday is
exiting the northern great lakes region this morning. We are left
with residual wrap around moisture and resulting clouds and patchy
fog over central north dakota. Clouds have exited the west.

Clouds will continue to exit central nd this morning, lingering
in the james river valley through midday. Expect partly cloudy to
mostly sunny skies across the forecast area this afternoon with
highs into the mid 60s to lower 70s. A shortwave currently over
north central montana will move east along the international
border today, and by this afternoon will impede upon weak
instability with steepening mid level lapse rates over western and
central nd. Latest rap soundings indicate some weak cape
generally 500 j kg or less across northwest and north central nd.

Latest cams do show some isolated convection over western nd with
the strongest making its way into the north central portion of the
state by late afternoon early evening. Latest blend of short term
guidance produces some slight chance pops along the international
border mainly after 00 utc, and only shower activity. We pulled
that back just a bit to include some slight chance pops in the
late afternoon as well. For now will keep it as just a mention of
showers, but a few rumbles of thunder can not be ruled out. Will
pass this along to the day shift.

Except for some early evening shower activity north, the majority
of the night is expected to be quiet. There may be some convection
making it's way into the southwest part of the state toward
morning, will cover this in the long term discussion.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 243 am cdt Sat may 25 2019
as mentioned in the short term discussion, short term cams and
medium range models all generate some convection over southwest nd
Sunday morning around 12 utc. This was a change from medium range
model runs 24 hours ago where there was no convection until Sunday
afternoon. This muddles things a little. On one hand the morning
convection could keep daytime heating and resultant instability
suppressed enough to limit later convection. On the other hand, it
may be early enough over the southwest that it won't matter much
and could supply a boundary to enhance afternoon convection.

Either way, it still appears that there will be enough instability
(1500-2500 g kg mucape) by late afternoon early evening for
thunderstorm development within an area of deep layer shear around
40 knots. It appears the best area for late afternoon early
evening thunderstorms will be south and west of lake sakakawea and
the missouri river, with the far southwest part of the state most
favored for possible severe convection. There is still quite a
bit of uncertainty. The GFS shows continuous QPF development
through the day over much of western sd and into southwest nd.

This would likely limit diurnal heating and resultant instability.

The latest 06 utc NAM is not as far north with the southerly flow
into western nd and shows a cooler northerly surface flow into
southwest nd compared to the 00 utc run. If convection does fire,
there may be a mix of modes as noted by SPC with hail, damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes possible. The better ingredients will
remain farther south over western sd and far southeast mt, but at
least the far southwest appears to have enough of a threat to
mention a possibly severe storm late afternoon and or early
evening.

At this time it appears that after Sunday evening, most of the
forecast area remains dry through mid week. The far south will be
on the northern fringes of convection continuing across the
central plains on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures remain mainly
in the mid 60s to mid 70s with chances of showers and
thunderstorms possibly returning by the end of the work week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 620 am cdt Sat may 25 2019
MVFR ceiling to begin the TAF period at kbis, should only remain
for an hour or so. MVFR to ifr ceiling at kjms with some scattered
light rain. Expect this to remain through around 18 utc. Otherwise
vfr conditions expected through the forecast period. Northwest to
west flow shifts southerly today from west to east. Late tonight a
cold front drops south into northern nd. Winds shift north to
northeast and MVFR ceilings are forecast to move into northern nd.

Some hints of MVFR ceilings moving into kmot and kisn toward the
end of the forecast period, but for now did not include this in
the taf. Also scattered convection develops over southwest to
south central nd towards 12 utc, but at this time it's not
expected to reach kbis or kdik by 12 utc. Did bring in some mid
clouds at these sites during this timeframe.

Bis watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... Twh
short term... Twh
long term... Twh
aviation... Twh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jamestown, Jamestown Municipal Airport, ND23 mi51 minWNW 122.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist49°F48°F97%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from JMS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10E9SE12SE11SE12SE12
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1 day agoN12NW10NW7N11N13N11NE9NE12NE6E14E12E10SE9SE7SE6SE5NE4E5E6E6E7E9SE9E8
2 days agoNE16
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N15N13N9N8N11N10N10NW7NW8NW11NW13N12N11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Bismarck, ND (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Fargo, ND
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.