Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 6:46 AM

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FXUS63 KFGF 271053 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 553 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another period of rain is expected Sunday into Monday, with a 60 percent probability for amounts greater than 0.50 inches mainly along and east of the Red River Valley.

UPDATE
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Light showers continue across most of the FA and will for most of the morning. More light showers have been filling in again across the central Valley. No changes are needed to the forecast at this point.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Regional radar imagery shows two areas with steadier rain early this morning, one centered around St. Cloud Minnesota and the other extending along the Canadian border back toward Langdon and west of Devils Lake. The area around St. Cloud is tied to the main 700mb circulation, which shows up nicely on water vapor imagery. The other area is a deformation band, which is slowly getting cutoff. There has been some lightning associated with the first area, mainly across Crow Wing County, just to the east of the FA. For today, basically expect the 700mb low to continue to lift northeast, with high pressure building in behind it. However, until this happens by late morning or early afternoon, there will be some lingering showers across the FA.
Additional precipitation amounts look to stay under a tenth of an inch.

There won't be much of a break in the action, with the next round of precipitation arriving Sunday into Monday. This system looks very similar to one exiting the area today, with a 700mb low lifting up through the FA and on into the Minnesota arrowhead. This 700mb low may be a little further north, allowing more of the FA to get into the higher probabilities for half an inch of rain or more (most of the Red River Valley east into west central and northwest Minnesota has about a 60 percent probability for amounts greater than 0.50 inches). These probabilities drop off quite a bit from the Devils Lake region into the far northern Valley (20-40 percent).

As this low pushes off to the east Monday night, there should be another short break from the rain. However, the parade of waves is expected to continue, with another one working into the FA Tuesday into Tuesday night. Much more uncertainty works into the precipitation forecast for the Wednesday through Saturday period. The NBM keeps widespread low (20 percent) precipitation chances throughout this entire time period. This will continue until there is better resolution on how any of the additional waves will kick out. It does appear to remain on the cloudy side, so temperatures will stay cooler overall.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Low clouds (IFR-MVFR) will hold for most of the day, and into tonight for KBJI/KFAR. Guidance is showing some decrease in clouds late this afternoon at KDVL, potentially moving into KGFK/KTVF by early evening. This is due to the system shifting off to the east. The decreasing clouds appear to stop this evening somewhere from Valley City to Baudette, and then they either hold or build back westward a bit. So that is why improving conditions are not anticipated at KFAR/KBJI. Will have to see if fog forms tonight if there is decreasing clouds. At this point will leave that out, but it will have to be watched.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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