Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nevis, MN

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 9:26PM Thursday June 20, 2019 7:21 PM CDT (00:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:58PMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nevis, MN
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location: 47.08, -94.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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Fxus63 kfgf 202351
afdfgf
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand forks nd
651 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019

Update
Issued at 651 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019
the showers across this fa are shrinking in coverage. Like last
night, they will probably continue to shrink, but a few may last
into the night. Made a few adjustments to match up with current
conditions, otherwise the forecast is in good shape. Model
guidance is still showing low clouds developing later this evening
and overspreading most of the fa late tonight into Friday morning.

If this happens it will play into the severe weather threat on
Friday afternoon, meaning storms may fire over central nd then
move eastward into eastern nd during the evening.

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 334 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019
a 500 mb short wave trough extending from the main 500 mb low over
the northern rockies causing the band of rain over eastern nd.

This area is moving more north but only slowly as moisture feed is
more from the southeast to northwest and the precipitation band is
oriented in that direction. The short wave trough will weaken
tonight and the band of light rain will diminish this evening. But
pockets of light rain may remain into the night, ESP over wc mn
and into parts of the mid rrv. There is a sfc low in far NE sd
moving into far SE nd this evening and will be the focus for a bit
heavier rainfall this evening.

Low level moisture increases overnight into Friday morning with
925 mb flow increasing form the south-southeast. Dew points likely
to climb into the lower to mid 60s over parts of SE nd Friday.

With the low level moisture transport overnight there is likely to
be lower level cloud developing and spreading north.

Friday itself likely to be rather cloudy so surface heating ahead
of the next stronger short wave trough sfc trough will be
affected. The short wave trough sfc trough will be near a devils
lake to aberdeen area by 00z Friday. The focus for storms will be
near this boundary. High shear but low CAPE environment in place
for these storms... But enough cape, ESP in SE nd, to likely
generate scattered severe storms. SPC href updraft helicity
forecast tracks not too impressive however from the 12z href. So
not a given severe weather will occur... But given strength of
0-6 km shear and 0-1 km SRH a few severe storms seem more likely
than not over ESP SE nd. Severe threat will move into the rrv and
then diminish late evening over NW mn. Right now being
conservative with dew points indicate 62-63 in far SE nd but if
get higher and any Sun breaks in the clouds ahead of the trough
instability values of 2500-3000 j kg may occur as highlighted by
hrrr in a few areas in our southern fcst area. But otherwise
looking at general 1000-1500 j kg in SE nd.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 334 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019
following the surface low moving east, expect to see precipitation
chances decrease throughout the day on Saturday from west to east.

As upper level flow becomes southwesterly, see the rain chances
remain scattered throughout the weekend. Temperatures are expected
to be seasonable with the warmest temps being in the red river
valley, where some areas could reach into the upper 70's. Expect the
pattern to continue into Monday with precipitation chances remaining
scattered due to the presence of the longwave trough.

Tuesday through Thursday...

the trough will continue to progress further east, followed by an
upper level ridging pattern over the northern plains with some small
embedded shortwaves in the upper levels. The large-scale ridging
pattern will allow for a steady warm-up with nearly all areas
reaching well into the 80's by the middle of the week. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also possible with guidance suggesting
northern areas near the canadian border being favored for Tuesday
before chances spread over the eastern nd northwest mn later in the
week. Uncertainty still exists for this time frame, but a summer-
like pattern is indicated at this time.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 651 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019
other than a few light showers early this evening, most of the
rest of the evening should be fairly quiet. Model guidance
continues to show a MVFR cloud deck developing over the fa later
tonight and holding into Friday morning. If that happens, the
Friday afternoon and evening predicted storms may fire over
central nd and move east into eastern nd during the late afternoon
and evening. Therefore, only mentioned thunder for now at kdvl.

Winds look to become pretty gusty by late Friday morning into the
afternoon, especially in the red river valley.

Fgf watches warnings advisories
Nd... None.

Mn... None.

Update... Godon
short term... Riddle
long term... Am bsw
aviation... Godon


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Park Rapids Municipal Airport, MN15 mi28 minSE 11 G 1810.00 miFair69°F43°F39%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from PKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E3E3E3E4E6E6E4E7E5NE7E9E11E7SE8SE12
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1 day agoNE6CalmCalmN3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4SE6SE10
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2 days agoW7NW9NW4W4W6W5NW6W4NW6NW4NW4NW5N9N11NE7N8N86W6NW54NW5N6N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.