Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nevis, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:17PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 12:42 AM CDT (05:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:20PMMoonset 7:35AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nevis, MN
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location: 47.08, -94.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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Fxus63 kfgf 260456
afdfgf
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand forks nd
1156 pm cdt Tue sep 25 2018

Update
Issued at 1147 pm cdt Tue sep 25 2018
clouds moving into NW mn have caused temps to moderate some and
will continue to do so. More clouds upstream than what any guidance
has so will continue to be scattered to broken sky coverage for
much of the night across the northern half of the fa.

Update issued at 946 pm cdt Tue sep 25 2018
temps in NW mn where clouds have yet to arrive have plummeted into
the upper 30s. The cool spot being fosston where the airport
sensor is down to 32, quite anomalous compared to surrounding
sites. Will see temps rise some with clouds and increased mixing
for the overnight. Will keep the mention of patchy frost in the
grids as clearing before dawn would allow temps to fall off once
again.

Update issued at 648 pm cdt Tue sep 25 2018
unsure on how much clearing and how much decoupling will occur
tonight with impacts on temps and potential need to expand frost
advisory to the east. Currently thinking that clouds and westerly,
albeit light winds, will keep temps across the northern valley and
into NW mn in 38 to 36 degree temp range with more scattered 33 to
35 frost coverage. Guidance is still showing upper 30s at gfk, tvf
and hco. Will monitor western extent of the clouds across manitoba
and nd over the next couple hours and adjust accordingly if
needed.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 323 pm cdt Tue sep 25 2018
well defined vort MAX near bismarck and moving east-southeast. As
expected an area of showers is increasing with it on the
north east side with a few lightning strikes now showing up.

Mucapes in the 500-700 j kg range. Will expect to see these
showers and isold thunder into SE nd late aftn. Weaker showers
upstream in SW manitoba will move southeast as well into parts of
ne nd early this eve. Entire area of showers will gradually move
east and fizzle out after 05z east of the red river valley.

Clearing to work back in behind this short wave overnight from
west to east with the longest time clear being the NW fcst area.

In the dvl basin lows of 32 to 34 are more likely with mid-upr 30s
other areas. Lows tonight do depend on clearing time overnight and
winds. Warm advection does take hold overnight south of a
southeast moving front low in manitoba and saskatchewan. Low level
warm tonight and all but the coldest guidance keeps most areas
35-40 range. But if skies clear out and winds decouple could see a
bit more widespread 32-34 degree temps into NW mn. Eve shift will
need to monitor.

Breezy milder day on Wednesday. 850 mb winds to 40 kts move into
ne nd and far NW mn in the mid aftn and enough mixing to bring
gusty winds to the surface with wind gusts to 40 mph in this area.

Showers will also increase late aftn as front and low drops
southeast toward NW ontario and lake of the woods region.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 323 pm cdt Tue sep 25 2018
confidence continues to increase in rain chances for Wednesday
night and into Thursday morning as an upper level low and
attendant surface low cold front push into northeast nd and north
central mn. Rainfall accumulation up to a couple of tenths of an
inch are possible for northern mn. As colder air pushes in behind
the cold front high temperatures for Thursday will only top out in
the upper 40s to mid 50s for the region.

Persistent northwesterly upper level flow will allow for another
impulse to propagate into the region and bring scattered rain
showers and a reinforcing shot of cold air into the region for
Friday morning. A mixed precip type will be possible during the
early morning hours for locations that drop to near freezing, but
overall impacts from any winter precip are expected to be minimal.

This second round of cool air will keep afternoon highs in the 40s
and will set up the best chance for widespread frost freeze for
Friday night Saturday morning across the area.

Overnight lows are forecast to drop to the upper 20s and low 30s for
much of the region with weak winds and clearing skies as surface
high pressure begins to build over the northern plains. This drier
weather is expected to continue for much of the weekend with
temperatures gradually warming into the 50s by early next week.

Recent model guidance has begun to show notable spread in solutions
for the Sunday night - Tuesday time frame. The overall QPF signal
for late Sunday has decreased as a dry frontal passage is now
favored by many deterministic models and GEFS ensemble members.

Ensemble guidance suggests a slower progression of an upper level
wave over this time period with the better precipitation chances
coming on Monday and Tuesday. Overall, a wetter pattern is expected
for the first couple of days for next week with temperatures at or
just below normal. Confidence in the timing placement of rain
chances for this period is expected to increase in the coming days.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1147 pm cdt Tue sep 25 2018
sct to bkn 6 to 8kft CIGS overnight. Southwest gusts 25 kt or so
tomorrow afternoon.

Fgf watches warnings advisories
Nd... Frost advisory until 7 am cdt Wednesday for ndz006-007-014-015-
026-054.

Mn... None.

Update... Jk
short term... Riddle
long term... Am
aviation... Jk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Park Rapids Municipal Airport, MN15 mi49 minSW 310.00 miFair35°F33°F93%1016.8 hPa

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Last 24hrN7N5CalmW6NW5CalmCalmCalmNW4NW5W5W9W6W8NW9NW11W12NW11NW8NW9NW6W4CalmSW3
1 day agoSE9SE9SE9E8
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2 days agoNE5E7NE7NE8NE7E5NE5NE7E7E11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.