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FXUS63 KFGF 040447 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1147 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives Monday/Tuesday, with isolated stronger storms possible.

UPDATE
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Area of light rain just brushing the far southeast fcst areaa from Wadena to Elbow Lake. This will likely continue til late tonight then move off to the east after sunrise. Otherwise mid/high level moisture streaming to the northeast over the southeast 1/2 of the fcst area. Meanwhile upper level trough over central Canada with several weak short waves thru Saskatchewan and into SW Manitoba, northwest ND. The later is still bringing some light rain showers to Bottineau area and north/west with area of clouds as well along the ND/Manitoba border. This wave likely to slowly move east tonight and will keep slight chc of showers along the Intl border overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Spotty showers continue to progress eastward in the north, with the showers brought on by Frontogenesis in the south starting to push SE out of the area. Last check, we had received 0.07" at the office at 4:45PM. So even though these showers sound loud, not much actual QPF with them. Forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 428 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Added some chance POPs through 00z to account for these diurnal showers north of HWY 200 this afternoon. Given that these are fueled by the sun warming the ground, they will quickly fall apart after sunset. Forecast remains on track otherwise.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A quick shortwave will move across the international border to give our northern counties the chance for some brief showers but amounts look to be around 0.20 inches or less. This evening a band of 850mb fgen will bring shower chances across the far southern valley into west central Minnesota rain; amounts look to be under 0.50 inches. If any thunderstorm do develop as models hint at the availability of some instability the greatest threat looks to be lighting and some pea size hail at the most tonight.

Sunday, A temporary ridge sets up to give us a break in this wet pattern with clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 60's with some areas reaching 70. However, Monday, a negatively tilted trough will increase the chances for showers and gusty winds starting in the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient ahead of the low will see south/southeast surface winds climb over 20 mph with an 80% chance for H850 winds to be over 40 kts increasing confidence in gusty winds at the surface. This strong low level flow will also usher in strong moisture return from stemming from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the low. Monday evening through Tuesday morning looks to be our first chance of severe thunderstorms for our area. The NBM highlights the I-94 corridor and south with 80-90% probs for CWASP values of 50 or greater, but only 10% of values greater than 65%. Looking at the 25/75 percentiles QPF values float between 0.10 and 1 inch for the CWA With the chance for severe thunderstorms QPF values may reach 1 to 2 inches underneath the thunderstorms.

Beyond Wednesday confidence decreases and clusters show a spilt between 1) northerly flow on the backside of the exiting upper low to the east and weak ridging to the west and 2) southwest flow. CPC outlooks for this time period depict us as being favored to stay below average for temps while maintaining the wet streak with more chances for rain to end the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR ceilings area over the area with mix of mid/high clouds southeast 1/2 of the fcst area and some mix of high end MVFR/low VFR clouds near the Canadian border. Some of these clouds in the north will sink south and ceilings may lower into more consistent MVFR range DVL-TVF zone and maybe GFK for a time late tonight or Sat morning. West or northwest wind 5 to 15 kts thru the pd.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

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