Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 5:30AM||Sunset 9:26PM||Thursday June 20, 2019 7:21 PM CDT (00:21 UTC)||Moonrise 10:58PM||Moonset 7:25AM||Illumination 88%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nevis, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kfgf 202351|
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand forks nd
651 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019
Issued at 651 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019
the showers across this fa are shrinking in coverage. Like last
night, they will probably continue to shrink, but a few may last
into the night. Made a few adjustments to match up with current
conditions, otherwise the forecast is in good shape. Model
guidance is still showing low clouds developing later this evening
and overspreading most of the fa late tonight into Friday morning.
If this happens it will play into the severe weather threat on
Friday afternoon, meaning storms may fire over central nd then
move eastward into eastern nd during the evening.
Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 334 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019
a 500 mb short wave trough extending from the main 500 mb low over
the northern rockies causing the band of rain over eastern nd.
This area is moving more north but only slowly as moisture feed is
more from the southeast to northwest and the precipitation band is
oriented in that direction. The short wave trough will weaken
tonight and the band of light rain will diminish this evening. But
pockets of light rain may remain into the night, ESP over wc mn
and into parts of the mid rrv. There is a sfc low in far NE sd
moving into far SE nd this evening and will be the focus for a bit
heavier rainfall this evening.
Low level moisture increases overnight into Friday morning with
925 mb flow increasing form the south-southeast. Dew points likely
to climb into the lower to mid 60s over parts of SE nd Friday.
With the low level moisture transport overnight there is likely to
be lower level cloud developing and spreading north.
Friday itself likely to be rather cloudy so surface heating ahead
of the next stronger short wave trough sfc trough will be
affected. The short wave trough sfc trough will be near a devils
lake to aberdeen area by 00z Friday. The focus for storms will be
near this boundary. High shear but low CAPE environment in place
for these storms... But enough cape, ESP in SE nd, to likely
generate scattered severe storms. SPC href updraft helicity
forecast tracks not too impressive however from the 12z href. So
not a given severe weather will occur... But given strength of
0-6 km shear and 0-1 km SRH a few severe storms seem more likely
than not over ESP SE nd. Severe threat will move into the rrv and
then diminish late evening over NW mn. Right now being
conservative with dew points indicate 62-63 in far SE nd but if
get higher and any Sun breaks in the clouds ahead of the trough|
instability values of 2500-3000 j kg may occur as highlighted by
hrrr in a few areas in our southern fcst area. But otherwise
looking at general 1000-1500 j kg in SE nd.
Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 334 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019
following the surface low moving east, expect to see precipitation
chances decrease throughout the day on Saturday from west to east.
As upper level flow becomes southwesterly, see the rain chances
remain scattered throughout the weekend. Temperatures are expected
to be seasonable with the warmest temps being in the red river
valley, where some areas could reach into the upper 70's. Expect the
pattern to continue into Monday with precipitation chances remaining
scattered due to the presence of the longwave trough.
Tuesday through Thursday...
the trough will continue to progress further east, followed by an
upper level ridging pattern over the northern plains with some small
embedded shortwaves in the upper levels. The large-scale ridging
pattern will allow for a steady warm-up with nearly all areas
reaching well into the 80's by the middle of the week. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also possible with guidance suggesting
northern areas near the canadian border being favored for Tuesday
before chances spread over the eastern nd northwest mn later in the
week. Uncertainty still exists for this time frame, but a summer-
like pattern is indicated at this time.
Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 651 pm cdt Thu jun 20 2019
other than a few light showers early this evening, most of the
rest of the evening should be fairly quiet. Model guidance
continues to show a MVFR cloud deck developing over the fa later
tonight and holding into Friday morning. If that happens, the
Friday afternoon and evening predicted storms may fire over
central nd and move east into eastern nd during the late afternoon
and evening. Therefore, only mentioned thunder for now at kdvl.
Winds look to become pretty gusty by late Friday morning into the
afternoon, especially in the red river valley.
Fgf watches warnings advisories
short term... Riddle
long term... Am bsw
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|Park Rapids Municipal Airport, MN||15 mi||28 min||SE 11 G 18||10.00 mi||Fair||69°F||43°F||39%||1009.1 hPa|
Wind History from PKD (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||NE||Calm||Calm||N||Calm||W||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||E||E||SE||SE|
|2 days ago||W||NW||NW||W||W||W||NW||W||NW||NW||NW||NW||N||N||NE||N||N||W||NW||NW||N||N |
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Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (20,4,5,8)(on/off)  Help
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