Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nevis, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 7:42PM Thursday March 21, 2019 7:31 AM CDT (12:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:32PMMoonset 7:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nevis, MN
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location: 47.08, -94.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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Fxus63 kfgf 211216
afdfgf
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand forks nd
716 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019

Update
Issued at 706 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019
fog appears to be following expected trends with satellite and
obs starting to show improvement erosion of main fog area in mn.

Vis has dropped just west of our NW cwa, but any restrictions
should be brief with short range guidance showing clearing the
devils lake basin by 10am. Decided to continue handling messaging
with special weather statement for now.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 407 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019
large scale amplified ridge moving into the western dakotas, while
nw flow is still in place over our CWA this morning. Axis of low
level moisture near surface trough axis in NWS mn where winds are a
little lighter resulted in increasing fog coverage and a narrow
corridor of dense fog from thief river falls to elbow lake. As
surface trough shifts east west-southwest flow increases winds and
moves drier air into NW mn. This supports western extent of fog
dissipating and main axis of fog shifting eastward through 12-15z.

Duration coverage of dense fog uncertain enough that I opted to use
special weather statement and held off on an advisory. Will monitor
and reconsider if trends warrant it.

A shortwave trough moving over ontario will send a brief "cold" push
through our CWA today tonight, and a slightly "cooler" air mass will
be in place through Friday. Ridge begins to shift further east
Friday, but strongest WAA height rises will be after the short term
periods. Periods of cloud cover will be possible, especially where
fog stratus develop, however this is not expected to have too much
of an impact on daytime temps which should still warm to the upper
30s forties today (mid 30s to low 40s fri). Dry stable air mass will
support dry conditions during these periods.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 407 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019
heading into Friday night, the h5 ridge loses amplification and
retreats southeastward. An upper low, situated over the hudson bay
area, will slide southwestward slightly and allow a push of colder
air into the region heading into Saturday and Sunday. At the same
time, we will be tracking an upper low as it moves across the
central high plains and into the middle mississippi valley.

An area of fgen along the northern reaches of the low will
interact with the approaching cold air, giving us a chance for
mixed precipitation Saturday evening through Sunday evening.

Initially, we will see a chance of light snow in the northwestern
portions of the cwa, which will spread southeastward through the
overnight hours. This will gradually change to light rain in most
areas as we head through Sunday. One exception looks to be the
devils lake basin, where temperatures will remain favorable for
light snow to continue through the day. Overall, QPF will remain
relatively light, with liquid equivalent values generally around
or less than 0.10 inch. There remains some uncertainty regarding
the track as the GFS brings heavier precipitation into the region;
however, it is currently the upper outlier regarding
precipitation values as the ECMWF and ensemble members are much
drier.

Sunday night into Monday will be dry and cooler with highs generally
in the lower to middle 30s and lows in the teens. Ridging builds
back into the region from the west on Tuesday with warmer
temperatures expected through the end of the week. Another
disturbance will bring precipitation chances back to the forecast
late Wednesday into Thursday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 647 am cdt Thu mar 21 2019
areas of fog across west central northwest mn decreasing flight
conditions to vlifr at times, but prevailing conditions at
ktvf kbji are trending towards MVFRVFR. Fog coverage is less
over eastern nd and other than a smaller area of fog near kdvl
that may decrease conditions, there is not as much confidence in
impacts at kgfk and kfar whereVFR is more likely to persist. All
fog should improve around 15z with daytime heating when guidance
also shows prevailingVFR at all terminals. Winds should turn to
the west around 10kt at most terminals eventually turning to the
north behind a front tonight.

Fgf watches warnings advisories
Nd... None.

Mn... None.

Update... Djr
short term... Djr
long term... Lynch
aviation... Djr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Park Rapids Municipal Airport, MN15 mi38 minSSW 4 miPartly Cloudy22°F19°F92%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from PKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW9NW9N7N10N12
G21
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N8N6N5N3NW5CalmW5NW3W4W4W3W6W5SW4
1 day agoCalmCalmSW3NW4------SW8W9W8W9W5W9SW10SW8SW10W10SW11SW10W10W7W8W11NW9
2 days agoW4W3W3CalmCalmW9W6W10SW8SW9SW10SW10SW8S8S6S9S4S6S3S6S5S5S5S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.