Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Walker, MN
March 19, 2024 2:06 AM CDT (07:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:13 AM Sunset 7:25 PM Moonrise 12:37 PM Moonset 4:28 AM |
Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KFGF 190458 AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1158 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There is still some day to day fire weather concern, due to windy conditions, dry fuels, and low relative humidity.
- There is a 60 percent probability of minor impacts from snowfall across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota Thursday into Thursday evening, although wind speeds should not play a factor.
- The next system for the weekend into early next week could potentially bring warning type impacts to the area.
UPDATE
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Breezy conditions continue, with a lull in conditions along the surface trough axis ahead of the front pushing southeast.
Northwest winds are still shown buy guidance to pick up again overnight with gusts possibly around 35 mph and there are upstream ops that reflect that type of increase. High clouds from earlier have already cleared but additional high clouds are approaching from Canada and should eventually fill in. There is still a signal for stratus to develop towards the morning hours Tuesday, though guidance isn't as consistent on coverage of these lower clouds. I made some adjustment to reflect sky trends and better reflect current wind shifts/speeds. Due to winds and eventual increases in clouds cover lows may remain milder (30s)
but there could still be a window for some locations to quickly drop where the lull in winds and clear skies alight (mid 20s).
I held off on any major changes to overnight lows for now.
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
RH values decreased late afternoon across southeast ND and west central MN with values wil in the 27-30% range along with gusts occasionally in the 30 mph range creating near critical fire weather conditions. RH values have held higher in the north (35-65%) though winds have been just as high. We should see wind gusts drop off and RH recover over the next few hours with sunset. Periods of high clouds are moving through the region. A front is starting to move into the region from the northwest with the pre-frontal surface trough axis already shifting winds over the Devils Lake Basin to the west-northwest.
Overall, the general forecast remains on track for the evening, with minor adjustments to reflect current trends.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Areas west of the Red River Valley have very little cloud cover now, as the remnants of the clouds have shifted east of the Valley. Wind speeds continue to be somewhat slow in rising, but they are breezy to windy. Similarly, temperatures are also slow to rise, but they are slowly coming up now across central North Dakota, pushing toward the western Devils Lake region. This slowness has resulted in fairly high humidity values yet, but there is still a potential for a short window during the late afternoon and early evening for near critical fire weather conditions in portions of the FA.
A cold front will move through later tonight into Tuesday morning, bringing gusty northwest winds throughout the day Tuesday. Models are showing low clouds dropping southward out of southern Manitoba as well, with some light snow or flurries possible. Because of the low clouds, am doubting that humidity values will drop too much Tuesday afternoon. No doubt fuels are dry and it will be windy. Will mention the elevated fire weather potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, but hold off on adding a Special Weather Statement.
Have been watching the next system (Thursday into Thursday evening) for a few days now. It has slowed down by about 6 hours, so it arrives a little later now, and correspondingly lasts longer too. The NBM shows about a 90 percent probability of 2 inches of snow across southeast North Dakota and adjacent areas of west central Minnesota, and even a 50 percent chance of 6 inches across the tri-state border intersection. As noted in the midnight shift discussion, WPC probabilities are a little lower than this. The forcing is warm advection and 700mb frontogenesis, and it could pivot in that tri-state border intersection area, allowing for a prolonged period of higher snowfall rates there. All said, there is still a 60 percent probability for minor impacts with this system. The positive is that wind speeds look to remain on the lower side, and they will not cause greater impacts. Winds are also from a cross Valley direction (east to west), which is rarely favorable for high winds.
There has also been a system to watch for the weekend and into early next week. Previous ensembles had shown this arriving as early as Friday, but it seems like it is more delayed now too.
This has the potential to be more of a hybrid or southwest flow event, which typically are able to tap into more moisture. This is still a long ways out, but it has the potential of producing warning type impacts to portions of the FA. Stay tuned for later forecasts throughout the week for additional information.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions should prevail through the early morning, until a period of MVFR stratus (1700-2500 FT AGL) moves north to the south across eastern ND and northwest MN behind a cold front.
Very light snow/flurries may also accompany that cloud layer with brief visibility reductions, though confidence in snow or visibility impacts is low (less than 10%).
Ahead of this front gusty southwest winds will continue into the evening shifting to the west then northwest as this front passes. Several periods of wind shear ahead of then immediately behind the cold front (one from the west the other from the northwest) will also impact the region later this evening/overnight.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1158 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There is still some day to day fire weather concern, due to windy conditions, dry fuels, and low relative humidity.
- There is a 60 percent probability of minor impacts from snowfall across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota Thursday into Thursday evening, although wind speeds should not play a factor.
- The next system for the weekend into early next week could potentially bring warning type impacts to the area.
UPDATE
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Breezy conditions continue, with a lull in conditions along the surface trough axis ahead of the front pushing southeast.
Northwest winds are still shown buy guidance to pick up again overnight with gusts possibly around 35 mph and there are upstream ops that reflect that type of increase. High clouds from earlier have already cleared but additional high clouds are approaching from Canada and should eventually fill in. There is still a signal for stratus to develop towards the morning hours Tuesday, though guidance isn't as consistent on coverage of these lower clouds. I made some adjustment to reflect sky trends and better reflect current wind shifts/speeds. Due to winds and eventual increases in clouds cover lows may remain milder (30s)
but there could still be a window for some locations to quickly drop where the lull in winds and clear skies alight (mid 20s).
I held off on any major changes to overnight lows for now.
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
RH values decreased late afternoon across southeast ND and west central MN with values wil in the 27-30% range along with gusts occasionally in the 30 mph range creating near critical fire weather conditions. RH values have held higher in the north (35-65%) though winds have been just as high. We should see wind gusts drop off and RH recover over the next few hours with sunset. Periods of high clouds are moving through the region. A front is starting to move into the region from the northwest with the pre-frontal surface trough axis already shifting winds over the Devils Lake Basin to the west-northwest.
Overall, the general forecast remains on track for the evening, with minor adjustments to reflect current trends.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Areas west of the Red River Valley have very little cloud cover now, as the remnants of the clouds have shifted east of the Valley. Wind speeds continue to be somewhat slow in rising, but they are breezy to windy. Similarly, temperatures are also slow to rise, but they are slowly coming up now across central North Dakota, pushing toward the western Devils Lake region. This slowness has resulted in fairly high humidity values yet, but there is still a potential for a short window during the late afternoon and early evening for near critical fire weather conditions in portions of the FA.
A cold front will move through later tonight into Tuesday morning, bringing gusty northwest winds throughout the day Tuesday. Models are showing low clouds dropping southward out of southern Manitoba as well, with some light snow or flurries possible. Because of the low clouds, am doubting that humidity values will drop too much Tuesday afternoon. No doubt fuels are dry and it will be windy. Will mention the elevated fire weather potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, but hold off on adding a Special Weather Statement.
Have been watching the next system (Thursday into Thursday evening) for a few days now. It has slowed down by about 6 hours, so it arrives a little later now, and correspondingly lasts longer too. The NBM shows about a 90 percent probability of 2 inches of snow across southeast North Dakota and adjacent areas of west central Minnesota, and even a 50 percent chance of 6 inches across the tri-state border intersection. As noted in the midnight shift discussion, WPC probabilities are a little lower than this. The forcing is warm advection and 700mb frontogenesis, and it could pivot in that tri-state border intersection area, allowing for a prolonged period of higher snowfall rates there. All said, there is still a 60 percent probability for minor impacts with this system. The positive is that wind speeds look to remain on the lower side, and they will not cause greater impacts. Winds are also from a cross Valley direction (east to west), which is rarely favorable for high winds.
There has also been a system to watch for the weekend and into early next week. Previous ensembles had shown this arriving as early as Friday, but it seems like it is more delayed now too.
This has the potential to be more of a hybrid or southwest flow event, which typically are able to tap into more moisture. This is still a long ways out, but it has the potential of producing warning type impacts to portions of the FA. Stay tuned for later forecasts throughout the week for additional information.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions should prevail through the early morning, until a period of MVFR stratus (1700-2500 FT AGL) moves north to the south across eastern ND and northwest MN behind a cold front.
Very light snow/flurries may also accompany that cloud layer with brief visibility reductions, though confidence in snow or visibility impacts is low (less than 10%).
Ahead of this front gusty southwest winds will continue into the evening shifting to the west then northwest as this front passes. Several periods of wind shear ahead of then immediately behind the cold front (one from the west the other from the northwest) will also impact the region later this evening/overnight.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KXVG LONGVILLE MUNI,MN | 21 sm | 13 min | W 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 18°F | 48% | 29.57 |
Duluth, MN,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE