Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Walker, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 4:24PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 9:43 PM CST (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:13PMMoonset 2:55AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Walker, MN
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location: 47.09, -94.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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Fxus63 kfgf 190314
afdfgf
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand forks nd
914 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018

Update
Issued at 911 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018
no significant changes to prev thoughts about late tonight Wed am.

Mid level moisture with short wave and while the mid level
saturation increases late tonight early Wed in the region from
jamestown to grand forks feel any precip will remain quite light
and more trace. Will maintain the low pops and messaging as is for
psbl slick spots in areas where precip may form.

But nothing suggests playing it up any more than that. Upstream in
montana and in saskatchewan cloud bases in the 10000-12000 ft
agl range.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 254 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018
precipitation amounts and type late tonight into tomorrow morning
will be the primary challenge for the period.

Fairly quiet weather late this afternoon and evening ahead of the
next incoming shortwave currently moving onto the west coast. The
shortwave will move quickly towards the mt nd border tonight, and
into mn during the day on Wednesday. The surface trough will move
into the western counties by early tomorrow and off to the east
late in the day. The models had been showing some light precip
along the trough axis as it moves through during the morning, then
some more with the cold air coming down into the northwestern
counties during the afternoon. There is some 850mb frontogenetical
forcing going on, and a few of the high resolution models have
some higher simulated reflectivities indicating some banding
potential. However, QPF is pretty minimal in all but one or two
model runs, and rap model soundings indicate a dry layer to be
overcome. The 12z NAM was very bullish on low level moisture
pooling along the trough axis, but the 18z run is much drier and
has very little precip with the morning round. Will continue to
keep chance pops going with very light to no qpf.

Besides precipitation chances, the type will be in question as
there will be robust warm layer aloft. Temperatures at the surface
continue to be very warm this afternoon, with low 30s over snowy
northwest mn and some mid 40s even over eastern nd. With
southwesterly winds and good mixing down to the surface, think
there will be not a huge amount of drop off after sunset and there
could be even some temps rising above freezing overnight. However,
we will lose surface heating and even liquid rain could encounter
sub freezing road temperatures. Will include a rain freezing rain
mix as precip moves in during the morning. Colder temperatures
will move in later in the day on Wednesday, so kept a rain snow
mix but again any amounts look to be minimal. Will continue to
keep a mention of mixed precip but not confident enough to include
any winter headlines at this time.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 254 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018
on Wednesday night, the main forcing upper level trough moves out of
the region, but low level moisture redevelops as the atmospheric
column cools. Model soundings are indicating an area of low level
sub freezing saturation that persists in the region before slowly
deteriorating as drier air moves in on Thursday. Assuming that the
near surface layer can saturate sufficiently, this setup brings
potential for a range of scenarios from lingering low level cloud
cover to scattered freezing drizzle and or a light wintry mix on
Wednesday night.

For the second half of the work week, colder air pushes into the
region as a longwave trough aloft digs into the central u.S.

Northerly flow on Thursday night will bring low temperatures back
into the teens and daytime highs primarily into the 20s.

Friday night through Saturday brings the next chance for
precipitation passing through the region. As a rapidly intensifying
alberta clipper moves from the canadian rockies toward the eastern
seaboard, the northern plains stands poised to receive some
precipitation along and behind the cold front pushing through.

Despite some disagreement in the details, this system looks to bring
more snow than rain, but there is potential for a rain snow mix.

Most models suggest a transition to snow by early Saturday as strong
cold air advection develops. The highest precipitation chances are
expected for northeast nd and northwest mn. A consensus of
probabilistic guidance suggests a high likelihood of accumulating
snow for most locations by the end of Saturday, with most locations
seeing at least a tenth of an inch and perhaps as much as a third of
an inch or more of liquid equivalent precipitation.

Behind this system, colder air moves in for Sunday and Monday,
perhaps even colder than is currently forecast depending on the
extent of fresh snow cover and strength of trailing cold air
intrusion. This could bring chilling morning low temperatures in the
single digits above and below zero.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 627 pm cst Tue dec 18 2018
expect high mid level moisture to increase overnight with a
south-southwest wind to 10 kts. Winds turning west then northwest
wed aftn over E nd rrv should bring in some MVFR CIGS mid to late
wed aftn.

Fgf watches warnings advisories
Nd... None.

Mn... None.

Update... Riddle
short term... Jr
long term... Bp
aviation... Riddle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Longville, Longville Municipal Airport, MN21 mi2.1 hrsN 07.00 miFair21°F19°F93%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from XVG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE3SE6SE5SE6SE6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S5CalmSW4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3
1 day agoNW6--------CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3E3SE5SE3E3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE4
2 days agoSW8SW5SW5SW4W8W4W3CalmW4W3SW4W5W7
G16
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G22
------W8W7W10
G14
W5NW7
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.