Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for International Falls, MN
March 19, 2024 2:39 AM CDT (07:39 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:13 AM Sunset 7:25 PM Moonrise 12:25 PM Moonset 4:31 AM |
Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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FXUS63 KDLH 190528 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Mainly dry and breezy weather the next few days along with cool temperatures. A bit of light snow in the Arrowhead and Wisconsin snowbelts.
- Snow chances return late Thursday into Friday with some light accumulations possible, mainly for east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
- A larger spring storm is possible Sunday into early next week, which could bring accumulating snow, mixed precipitation, and gusty winds.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Skies have cleared out for the majority of the region this afternoon with some higher clouds across the International Border and parts of northwest Wisconsin. Warm air advection this evening and a weak passing upper level shortwave is expected to result in an overall increase in cloud cover overnight, and some flurries or light snow showers will be possible as well, mainly in the Arrowhead (20-30% chance). A cold front will pass through late tonight into Tuesday morning, resulting in a wind shift from southwest to northwest and gusty winds persisting through the day Tuesday. A few flurries or light snow showers may be possible mainly in the Arrowhead Tuesday associated with some weak upper level lift and low-level post-frontal mixing that could result in horizontal roll convection. With plenty of dry air in the low levels, however, I'm not anticipating much for coverage or intensity of any snow. A 10-15% chance for flurries is in the forecast.
The other story for Tuesday and lingering into Wednesday and Thursday is the overall dry (albeit cool) weather pattern expected and implications for fire weather. There may be enough moisture to result in some stratocumulus clouds Tuesday, which may keep min RH from falling lower than 30% despite winds gusting to around 30 mph. Nevertheless, conditions will be generally dry, especially across east-central Minnesota into much of northwest Wisconsin where less clouds are expected.
A bit of lake-effect snow may clip northern Iron county, mainly Tuesday night, but with a lack of moisture, snowfall amounts are expected to be light (~40% chance for ~1" or less).
Another couple of dry weather days Wednesday and Thursday where min RH values will likely fall to 20-25% and possibly lower locally. Winds will remain a bit breezy from the northwest Wednesday (gusts to ~20 mph), but much lighter Thursday.
A much more active weather pattern is looking likely starting late Thursday into Friday as a clipper system still looks on track to bring some snowfall to parts of the region. The broad consensus favors central Minnesota into Wisconsin with the best chances (~60%) for seeing accumulating snow. We will have to keep an eye on the track of this though, because a wobble to the north or south could bring the primary area of frontogenesis and associated snowfall further north into or south of the region.
Current forecast PWATs between a quarter and half an inch are favorable for a few inches of snow for at least parts of the region. Another component of uncertainty is lake influence with a cold air mass expected to be in place (850 hPa temps around -15C or so). Northeast winds may bring some lake-enhancement to the South Shore and possibly into the Twin Ports depending on the storm track trends.
We may catch a break around Saturday, but another storm may be on the horizon around Sunday into early next week. There's much more uncertainty with this one given that it's still just under a week away, but there is potential for a Colorado-style low to develop somewhere in the Midwest and take a track that could be favorable for some accumulating snowfall, mixed precipitation, and gusty winds somewhere in the Midwest, possibly including the Northland. If anyone has travel plans around this time, be encouraged to keep up with the latest forecast, as it is expected to change.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions to start the forecast period as a low pressure system moves southeast across Ontario. Mid to high clouds are sliding across the Northland this morning with some MVFR ceilings expected to develop later this morning. Dry air is expected to win out in the afternoon with widespread VFR conditions returning. Gusty northwest winds will also pick up later this morning as well with some isolated flurries possible over northern MN.
MARINE
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Gusty southwest winds are expected tonight. A brief break where winds may temporarily lessen early Tuesday morning is possible, mainly along the North Shore as a cold front passes through, but they will become gusty once again from the northwest after the front passes through. Expect gusts around 25 knots for most nearshore waters tonight with southwest winds. Winds then increase slightly again as they shift northwesterly through the day Tuesday. Gusts to around 30 kt are expected especially Tuesday night, and winds may approach or reach gale force, mainly along parts of the North Shore (Grand Marais to Grand Portage) Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.
Small Craft Advisories have been issued everywhere through Wednesday afternoon, and may need to be extended into Wednesday evening for some areas. A Gale Watch has been issued Tuesday night through Wednesday morning from Grand Marais to Grand Portage.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for LSZ121.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.
Gale Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for LSZ140.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ141>148- 150.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Mainly dry and breezy weather the next few days along with cool temperatures. A bit of light snow in the Arrowhead and Wisconsin snowbelts.
- Snow chances return late Thursday into Friday with some light accumulations possible, mainly for east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
- A larger spring storm is possible Sunday into early next week, which could bring accumulating snow, mixed precipitation, and gusty winds.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Skies have cleared out for the majority of the region this afternoon with some higher clouds across the International Border and parts of northwest Wisconsin. Warm air advection this evening and a weak passing upper level shortwave is expected to result in an overall increase in cloud cover overnight, and some flurries or light snow showers will be possible as well, mainly in the Arrowhead (20-30% chance). A cold front will pass through late tonight into Tuesday morning, resulting in a wind shift from southwest to northwest and gusty winds persisting through the day Tuesday. A few flurries or light snow showers may be possible mainly in the Arrowhead Tuesday associated with some weak upper level lift and low-level post-frontal mixing that could result in horizontal roll convection. With plenty of dry air in the low levels, however, I'm not anticipating much for coverage or intensity of any snow. A 10-15% chance for flurries is in the forecast.
The other story for Tuesday and lingering into Wednesday and Thursday is the overall dry (albeit cool) weather pattern expected and implications for fire weather. There may be enough moisture to result in some stratocumulus clouds Tuesday, which may keep min RH from falling lower than 30% despite winds gusting to around 30 mph. Nevertheless, conditions will be generally dry, especially across east-central Minnesota into much of northwest Wisconsin where less clouds are expected.
A bit of lake-effect snow may clip northern Iron county, mainly Tuesday night, but with a lack of moisture, snowfall amounts are expected to be light (~40% chance for ~1" or less).
Another couple of dry weather days Wednesday and Thursday where min RH values will likely fall to 20-25% and possibly lower locally. Winds will remain a bit breezy from the northwest Wednesday (gusts to ~20 mph), but much lighter Thursday.
A much more active weather pattern is looking likely starting late Thursday into Friday as a clipper system still looks on track to bring some snowfall to parts of the region. The broad consensus favors central Minnesota into Wisconsin with the best chances (~60%) for seeing accumulating snow. We will have to keep an eye on the track of this though, because a wobble to the north or south could bring the primary area of frontogenesis and associated snowfall further north into or south of the region.
Current forecast PWATs between a quarter and half an inch are favorable for a few inches of snow for at least parts of the region. Another component of uncertainty is lake influence with a cold air mass expected to be in place (850 hPa temps around -15C or so). Northeast winds may bring some lake-enhancement to the South Shore and possibly into the Twin Ports depending on the storm track trends.
We may catch a break around Saturday, but another storm may be on the horizon around Sunday into early next week. There's much more uncertainty with this one given that it's still just under a week away, but there is potential for a Colorado-style low to develop somewhere in the Midwest and take a track that could be favorable for some accumulating snowfall, mixed precipitation, and gusty winds somewhere in the Midwest, possibly including the Northland. If anyone has travel plans around this time, be encouraged to keep up with the latest forecast, as it is expected to change.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions to start the forecast period as a low pressure system moves southeast across Ontario. Mid to high clouds are sliding across the Northland this morning with some MVFR ceilings expected to develop later this morning. Dry air is expected to win out in the afternoon with widespread VFR conditions returning. Gusty northwest winds will also pick up later this morning as well with some isolated flurries possible over northern MN.
MARINE
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Gusty southwest winds are expected tonight. A brief break where winds may temporarily lessen early Tuesday morning is possible, mainly along the North Shore as a cold front passes through, but they will become gusty once again from the northwest after the front passes through. Expect gusts around 25 knots for most nearshore waters tonight with southwest winds. Winds then increase slightly again as they shift northwesterly through the day Tuesday. Gusts to around 30 kt are expected especially Tuesday night, and winds may approach or reach gale force, mainly along parts of the North Shore (Grand Marais to Grand Portage) Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.
Small Craft Advisories have been issued everywhere through Wednesday afternoon, and may need to be extended into Wednesday evening for some areas. A Gale Watch has been issued Tuesday night through Wednesday morning from Grand Marais to Grand Portage.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for LSZ121.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.
Gale Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for LSZ140.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ141>148- 150.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KINL FALLS INTLEINARSON FIELD,MN | 1 sm | 45 min | W 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 30°F | 18°F | 59% | 29.52 |
Duluth, MN,
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