Saturday, September23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:07PM Saturday September 23, 2017 4:58 PM CDT (21:58 UTC) Moonrise 9:34AMMoonset 8:08PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 232031
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
331 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017

Short term (this evening through Sunday)
issued at 331 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
the large upper level trof that has been over the west coast will
develop a closed low in the base of the trof as it begins to move
into the rockies. Meanwhile, the blocking upper level high remains
over the east coast. With the forecast area in between, warm, moist
air will continue to be pumped into the region on the southwest flow
aloft. This is gulf of mexico based moisture and is resulting in
dewpoints into the upper 50s over the northwest corner of the
region, with 60s and low 70s elsewhere. 850mb temps in the teens are
also in play across the area which is resulting in minimum temps
tonight in the 50s north, to the upper 60s south. MAX temps on
Sunday will be in the upper 60s over northwest koochiching county,
to the middle 80s in northwest wisconsin.

At the surface, a cold front was reaching the twin PORTS at 20z.

Showers and a few storms will occur along and ahead of the front. As
the evening progresses, the cold front is expected to become a warm
front and lift north to the canadian border later tonight. It will
be pushed along by a low level jet. The showers and storms will also
lift north later tonight with the he storms diminishing as the low
level jet weakens. A front will remain over the western portion of
the forecast area through Sunday. Showers and storms will persist
along and ahead of this front and drift a bit east in the afternoon.

Brief heavy rains will be found near the stronger storms, but no
severe weather is expected.

Long term (Sunday night through Saturday)
issued at 331 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
the northland's warm weather pattern will soon come to an end. A
cold front will move through the northland Sunday night and Monday,
then the northland can expect cooler northwest flow through much of
the week, with temperatures returning to near or slightly cooler
than normal.

There will be dominant area of high pressure over the eastern us and
southeast canada Sunday evening. The high will be somewhat blocked
from moving eastward because of hurricane maria lifting northward in
the atlantic ocean. This will cause a cold front in western
minnesota and far northwest ontario to slowly advance eastward
through the northland Sunday night and Monday. Passing shortwaves in
the warm, humid, strong south-southwest flow aloft could provide
enough forcing to trigger some thunderstorms in the warm sector
ahead of and near the front. The models suggest only up to several
hundred j kg of most-unstable cape, so the environment does not look
particularly favorable for strong storms. However, given the deep
moisture, with precipitable water values of 1.5 to nearly 2 inches,
any storms could drop heavy rain rates. The slow movement of the
front could lead to training and contribute to some locally heavy
rainfall. There could be additional storm development in northwest
wisconsin and nearby areas of minnesota Monday afternoon and early
evening, before the front finally exits the northland later that
night or early Tuesday.

An upper-level low will lift out of the rocky mountains into the
northern plains and south-central canada Monday into Tuesday. This
could lift multiple shortwaves through the northland, providing the
forcing to possibly generate more showers Monday night and Tuesday.

The cool northwest flow on Tuesday will widespread cumulus
and showers.

The upper low will lift off to hudson bay and eastern canada
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The northland should get a break from
showers with breezy westerly flow and some partly cloudy skies.

Another upper low, though, looks like will drop out of northern
canada Thursday and or into Friday. This will likely bring the
coldest air the northland has yet seen. The GFS and european have
850 hpa temperatures dropping to near or a bit below 0 to -2 degrees
celsius. We are forecasting highs in the middle to upper 50s at this
time for late in the week. However, this forecast is somewhat skewed
towards climatology. We will likely trend the forecast temperatures
down and sky cover up if the models continue to show this cold air
coming down. That kind of cold air would likely generate plenty of
cumulus, which would limit solar heating, and further contribute to
cool temperatures. It is not out of the questions that highs could
be in the 40s.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1247 pm cdt Sat sep 23 2017
a slow-moving cold front will continue advancing east and south
into the arrowhead, twin ports, and northwest wisconsin this
afternoon. There will be widespread ifr MVFR ceilings and some
light showers on the cool side of the front. The front will lift
back north tonight with the development of a strong low-level jet.

Expect this jet and passing weak disturbances to provide the
forcing to trigger some showers and weak storms this evening and
overnight, especially areas closer to the front. Significant low-
level wind shear will develop later tonight once the jet increases
to about 30 to 40 knots of flow from the south-southwest aloft.

There will likely be some lowering ceilings and visibility in
areas overnight, with most of the area seeing a trend to lifr ifr
conditions. Northwest wisconsin and khyr may remain mostly clear
andVFR. There will then be some improvement from the south as
warmer and drier flow picks up.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 63 79 60 63 40 10 50 50
inl 54 68 51 56 80 70 80 30
brd 62 80 56 60 40 40 70 40
hyr 67 84 63 73 30 10 30 60
asx 64 86 62 73 30 10 30 60

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Gsf
long term... Grochocinski
aviation... Grochocinski

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi64 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast57°F54°F90%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE8SE4SW3E3SE8SE8SE7SW8CalmCalmSE7CalmSW6SW9W10W7W7W6
1 day agoSE12
2 days agoW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.