Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:01PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 3:10 PM CDT (20:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 9:51PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 261743
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
1243 pm cdt Tue sep 26 2017

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 343 am cdt Tue sep 26 2017
another wet day is in store for the region today, as the band of
rainfall over the forecast area extends south across much of
minnesota and into iowa and eastern nebraska and south dakota. This
rainfall is associated with a surface low that is over northeast
iowa as of 3 am, with a warm front extending northeast across
wisconsin into western upper michigan. This surface low is going to
lift northeast into western upper michigan by this afternoon,
keeping precipitation going across much of the forecast area through
the morning hours, then slowly diminishing from south to north
during the afternoon and evening and ending overnight tonight. The
clouds and rain will keep temperatures on the cold side, with highs
only in the 50s for minnesota and in the 60s over wisconsin.

Wednesday, a surface ridge builds in quickly behind the surface low,
and after a cloudy morning in the lingering low level moisture, i
expect mixing to produce steep low level lapse rates. This should
allow some gusty winds on Wednesday as well as a decent cumulus
field for the late morning and afternoon. Winds will be stronger
than the last few days, but mostly gusty though the sustained winds
will not be so very strong. This pattern will also allow us to warm
back up again a little with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday)
issued at 343 am cdt Tue sep 26 2017
a dip to more seasonable temperatures late-week, then a warming
trend to temperatures that will feel more like early september, not
early october. A low chance for spotty showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm Thursday afternoon, then dry Friday and Saturday. An
active weather pattern returns with the warmer temperatures
beginning with a chance for showers associated with a warm front
building in Sunday, then continued chances for rain Monday and
Tuesday. A low chance for storms Sunday into early next week, but
nothing like the repeat days of strong storms we had last week.

On the synoptic scale a brief brush with a northwesterly flow
pattern late-week as a mid upper level ridge builds over the
canadian rockies. A mid-level shortwave trough moves through
manitoba and northwest ontario then across the upper great lakes
Thursday leading to increasing mid-level moisture and cooler air.

Diurnally driven showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will
develop Thursday afternoon given steep low level lapse rates, though
guidance has been slowly shifting east with the best large-scale
forcing and coolest air aloft, so it is possible this disturbance
just brings some fair-weather CU to many locations. Highs in the low
to mid 60s on Thursday with breezy northwest winds given deep
mixing. Cooler Friday as high pressure builds in resulting in mainly
skies. With clear skies and a cool canadian high pressure nearly
overhead Friday night temperatures may fall to the low to mid 30s by
Saturday morning. MOS guidance trends have been up and down, with
the 00z gridded GFS mos not as cool as some previous runs had been
with no areas at or below freezing. Still, this pattern seems to
support at least some frost, mainly in the elevated terrain of the
mn arrowhead and northwest wisconsin, south of the gogebic range.

Sunny Saturday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and a light 5
mph south wind - the perfect weather for getting out and checking
out the fall colors as they approach their peak!
late in the weekend a change in the large-scale pattern as a compact
upper low moves across the pacific northwest and into the northern
plains. Southerly flow will develop ahead of this trough as the high
pressure over the midwest on Friday shifts eastward towards the
northeast. A warm front lifts east across the mid upper mississippi
river valley Saturday night into Sunday ahead of the mid-level
trough resulting in increasing clouds and warmer temperatures. The
00z GFS is very fast with this warm front, arriving in north-central
minnesota by mid-day Saturday, but this is more than 24 hours faster
than other guidance and previous runs. Precipitation chances ramp up
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with the possibility for
thunderstorms within the warm sector of the deepening low pressure
system to the northwest in southern canada. The cold front
associated with this low then moves east across the region Monday
into Tuesday resulting in widespread chances for rain with southerly
flow at low levels resulting in the potential for moderate to heavy
rain rates at times. This southerly flow will also result in mild
temperatures with highs in the mid upper 60s Sunday and Monday, into
the low 70s in some parts of east-central mn and northwest wisconsin
on Tuesday. These highs are around 5-10 degrees above normal.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1239 pm cdt Tue sep 26 2017
the light rain will finally end at all TAF sites by late tis
afternoon. However... Ifr to lifr CIGS will be likely overnight at
all all airports due to the abundant moisture leftover from the
rain. Dense fog is not expected due to the cloud cover overnight.

An area of high pressure will build into the region wedensday
increasing conditons to MVFR toVFR by late morning.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 55 43 59 46 100 10 10 0
inl 51 40 60 44 100 60 0 10
brd 56 41 62 46 50 10 0 0
hyr 61 45 60 44 80 10 0 0
asx 60 45 62 46 100 20 10 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm cdt this evening for wiz001.

Mn... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm cdt this evening for mnz037.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for lsz121-
140>147.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm cdt this evening for lsz148.

Short term... Le
long term... Jjm
aviation... Stewart


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi15 minNNW 64.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F48°F92%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N7N7N4NE5N5NE6NE5E8E5NE5NE7NE6NE56N4NE6NE6NE8E4NE4N5NW4N6
1 day agoCalmCalmNW11
G17
W6W8W6NW10W7W8W7W7W8
G17
W7W5W5NW5NW5NW6N8N6N8N7N10N8
2 days agoW6W5NW4NW5N6NW4N5CalmCalmCalmSE3NE4E7E3E5E4E5SE6SE654SW7
G18
SW9W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.