Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:41PM Saturday February 17, 2018 8:50 PM CST (02:50 UTC) Moonrise 8:19AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 172358
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
558 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018

Short term (this evening through Sunday)
issued at 251 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
a cold front was moving through the forecast area at 1930z. Some low
and mid clouds have formed behind the front over much of northeast
minnesota. Last of the low stratus was moving out of price county. A
mainly clear sky is expected through the evening with surface
ridging covering the region. Late tonight, the ridging moves over
eastern lake superior, while a closed mid level circulation moves
out of eastern montana into the northern plains by 12z Sunday.

Meanwhile, its surface reflection reaches western south dakota.

Still expecting snow to develop ahead of this system and reach the
southwest quad of the forecast area after 09z. Models have com into
better agreement with this onset of the snow, including the short
term hires models. The arw nmm gem are a bit strong fast with some
moderate snow bands well into the st. Croix river valley by 12z
Sunday. Prefer the slower timing of the other models and keeping the
snow farther west.

Model differences in the QPF amounts, snow amounts, placement are
still a concern Sunday. The nam ECMWF favor the northern half of the
forecast area for the higher QPF snow in the morning, while the
gfs gem favor the central southern sections. Regardless, they do
agree on the location of the surface low center to the mn sd border
by 18z. There is also some displacement in the fgen signal over the
region, but there is plenty of omega moving through the area, along
with upper level divergence. Thaler q-g divergence points to the
best lift being focused over the southern sections in the morning.

With these differences, have a blend for pops. Forecast soundings
point to all snow.

Differences in the QPF placement and snow amounts continue Sunday
afternoon. The gem has the most QPF snow and was discounted. Blended
the GFS nam ECMWF for the coverage of QPF snow and a more northerly
track. Based on the more northern track, have opted to add
koochiching, itasca, northern cass, northern and central st. Louis,
as well as inland lake and cook counties to the winter storm watch.

A disjointed fgen signal, and best upper level divergence bisecting
the forecast area, points toward the need for a blend of solutions.

Soundings still favor all snow in the afternoon. Some lingering
snow on the backside of the departing surface low over northwest
wisconsin may provide an additional half inch.

Long term (Sunday night through Saturday)
issued at 251 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
a positively tilted trough will dig from the pacific northwest late
on Sunday into the intermountain west by late on Monday. At 850 hpa
a baroclinic zone will setup across the mid mississippi river valley
and extend southwestward to the central plains. Along the baroclinic
zone a quasi-stationary front will set up and be the focus for
developing an elongated area low pressure somewhere in the mid
mississippi river valley. This will bring the next round of
precipitation to the northland. Guidance shows a broad swath of
light precipitation extending northwest of the developing low
beginning early Monday morning continuing through Tuesday, with a
frontogenetical band setting up somewhere in mn wi. This is due to a
shortwave trough embedded within the longwave trough lifting
through. There is a lot of spread between the gfs ECMWF nam and gem
guidance in the location and intensity of the precipitation band
that sets up over the cwa, so confidence is low in precipitation and
snow totals at this point. The difference is likely due to
convection developing along where the low pressure system is
developing. Suspect that the latest gem is the most realistic
solution at this point in time with a tighter precipitation swath,
which would bring less QPF snow to northern minnesota. However,
opted to keep a blended solution as guidance is still all over the
place. High temperatures on Monday through Wednesday will generally
be in the teens. Low temperatures will be in the single digits above
and below zero.

Precipitation will come to an end late on Tuesday. High pressure
will build in behind the departing system, shifting flow aloft to a
westerly. This will advect warmer air into the region on Wednesday
and Thursday. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday range from the teens
to the upper 20s. Thursday morning lows will be in the single digits
below zero. The forecast becomes less certain Friday and Saturday as
guidance is all over the place with timing, location and intensity
of the next trough digging in from the pacific northwest. The
gem ECMWF are currently the slower and drier solution for the
region, while the GFS is faster with more precipitation for the
northland. Due to the uncertainty stuck with a compromise solution.

This brings chances of snow on Friday Saturday with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 545 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
vfr conditions this evening are expected to continue until at
least 10z as a ridge of high pressure slowly slides east across
the area. A potent shortwave and low pressure system moves across
the region beginning around 10z, bringing several hours of
moderate to heavy snow with ifr conditions in visibilities and
ceilings to several terminals, with kdlh and khib the most
affected. Sites to the north and south to have a shorter period of
ifr visibilities with MVFR ceilings. Strong winds aloft will
create llws for khyr beginning around 18z, continuing through the
end of the TAF period.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 5 23 7 17 10 90 10 50
inl -1 15 -8 11 10 100 0 0
brd 7 28 6 16 50 60 20 50
hyr 5 33 13 20 10 60 30 70
asx 9 30 13 18 0 80 50 70

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... Winter storm watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for mnz010>012-018>021-025-026.

Ls... None.

Short term... Gsf
long term... Wl
aviation... Le


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi55 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy13°F1°F59%1014.5 hPa

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Last 24hr6S8
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1 day agoNW13W8W8W7W6SW4SW5SW6SW7SW6SW7SW9SW10W13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.