Wednesday, July26, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:55PM Tuesday July 25, 2017 11:37 PM CDT (04:37 UTC) Moonrise 7:23AMMoonset 9:27PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 252357
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
657 pm cdt Tue jul 25 2017

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 334 pm cdt Tue jul 25 2017
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of
a cold front tonight across portions of east central minnesota into
northwest wisconsin, some of which could be strong to severe.

Precipitation may linger into Wednesday morning as the cold front
exits northwest wisconsin with skies clearing out in the wake of the
front Wednesday afternoon. For areas of north-central minnesota into
portions of northeast mn - areas such as the brainerd lakes, iron
range, and points north - the overall chance for precipitation is
low tonight with decreasing overnight. Highs today and tomorrow
seasonable in the mid 70s to low 80s, with lows tonight falling to
the mid upper 50s where skies clear out, mid 60s under the clouds in
east-central mn and northwest wisconsin.

On the synoptic scale a mid-level low over central manitoba will
track east into northwest ontario tonight with a resulting surface
low to its northeast near hudson bay. Extending from this low is a
cold front extended all the way south into the eastern great plains.

A warm sector ahead of this cold front is across the upper midwest
today, and as expected much of the region is draped within stratus
limiting surface heating. A few showers and storms have developed at
times through the morning and afternoon along the warm front
tracking east into northwest wisconsin, but these have remained sub-
severe with just a few storms capable of producing small hail. In
addition, along the international border region a few storms have
developed at times along the cold front, but these storms have been

The cold front will track east across the region tonight into
Wednesday. In the warm sector elevated instability is an 1500-2000
j kg over northern minnesota, approaching 3000-4000 j kg in eastern
south dakota and southwestern minnesota. It is in this area towards
central minnesota where late-day convection is expected to develop
and spread eastward. While earlier guidance had solutions which
favored some of these storms tracking towards southern parts of the
cwa - areas like the i-35 corridor east across northwest wisconsin -
models have been trending away from this idea as the deep-layer wind
shear does not seem to be enough to sustain strong to severe storms
this far north. A few strong to severe updrafts cannot be ruled out
given the very impressive mid-level lapse rates advecting in, but
thunderstorms will struggle to sustain themselves given the wind
field. The cold front will sweep east tonight which in addition to
isolated scattered storms over east-central mn and northwest wi may
result in continued isolated storms developing along the
international border region, but these will likely remain sub-
severe. Given the short-lived storms, damaging winds may be a threat
for a bit this evening as storms collapse, otherwise an isolated
large hail threat will exist through this evening. With precipitable
water values approaching 2" in east-central mn and northwest
wisconsin, all storms will be producing heavy rain rates which could
lead to minor flooding, though storms should be progressive enough
and isolated to scattered in nature, limiting the possibility of any
flash flooding. Behind the cold front overnight some patchy fog may
develop as skies clear out and temperatures fall.

Wednesday a few showers and storms may continue ahead of the cold
front in northwest wisconsin during the morning, but by the
afternoon mostly sunny skies should prevail over the northland. With
diurnal heating some afternoon stratocu is possible along with
northwest winds around 5-10 mph.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 334 pm cdt Tue jul 25 2017
Wednesday evening a few showers may be lingering over price county
according to some of the model qpf, but it appears all the forcing
is well to our southeast, and have left the evening forecast dry
with gradually decreasing clouds.

A fairly strong surface ridge builds into the area for Thursday and
Friday, which is expected to bring some cooler temperatures for both
days. Usually a ridge would bring dry weather as well, but it looks
like we may develop some afternoon showers Thursday and have some
slight chance pops there for the afternoon hours. Otherwise we are
looking at dry conditions through at least Friday night.

Saturday our ridge shifts off to the east and allows return flow to
set up over the area. The GFS is bringing a shortwave through the
westerly flow aloft, which is not depicted in the ECMWF which bight
bring showers and thunderstorms into the area as early as Saturday
afternoon. However, this is day 5 and am not terribly confident in
it, so have kept pops in the slight to low end chance range Saturday
night and Sunday. Highs push back up into the upper 70s to low 80s
both days.

Early next week we start seeing some significant differences in the
models that affect the forecast area. The GFS has a strong upper
low over the hudson bay and more amplified ridge over western north
america than is depicted on the ecmwf. The GFS solution bring
cooler temperatures and some precipitation chances across the area.

The ECMWF also has some precipitation chances and is warmer than the
gfs, though still below normal. Have low confidence for now, but
have slight chance pops with near to below normal temperatures for
the first half of next week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 652 pm cdt Tue jul 25 2017
widespread thunderstorm activity was taking place well to the
south of the CWA this evening... Generally through the twin cities
metropolitan area. Some of the cam's indicate the potential for
some development overnight as the LLJ strengthens overnight. There
remains significant instability throughout the region, and with
boundaries and the front moving through, we could yet see some
shower and thunderstorm development overnight. Have tried to place
some timing into the taf's this evening, but confidence is not all
that high in the expected location of precipitation overnight.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 62 79 58 76 60 10 0 20
inl 57 77 56 79 30 10 0 0
brd 64 80 59 79 40 10 0 0
hyr 65 80 58 79 70 30 0 10
asx 65 82 59 76 60 20 0 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Jjm
long term... Le
aviation... Dap

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi42 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F60°F87%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE5SE3SE6SE4S3SE5SE5SE65S5S76SW66S9
1 day agoCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalm3SW5S6SW7SW6SE7S746SE7S7S7S9S33SE4SE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNE5E5NE5NE6NE6NE6E8E9E8E5NE9NE5NE5NE5CalmNE3NE3S3CalmE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.