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FXUS63 KDLH 262343 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 643 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainy weekend begins through the day today. Recent trend shows the potential for a better break Saturday afternoon/evening before rain begins again through Sunday morning. 1 to 2 inches rainfall expected with locally higher amounts 2"+ possible especially along the North Shore

- Windy Sunday into Monday out of the east-northeast. Strongest winds in the Twin Ports, North Shore, and the MN Arrowhead. Wind Advisories may be needed.

- Warmer temperatures into next week with additional chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Rain has begun to move into the Northland this afternoon, with the initial bands stretching up along the I-35 corridor and towards the International Border. Rain has been fairly light so far, and initial low level dry air has lead to some of these first bands spending much of their energy on just moistening the column, instead of actually bringing very much rain to the surface. So far we've only seen a couple hundredths of an inch fall where rain has managed to make it down. Through this evening, we're expecting to see further rain shower development between the bands currently in the Northland and the thunderstorms in southern Minnesota. CAMs suggest this will be a mix of stratiform and showery activity, and an injection of just a little CAPE advecting northward into the evening hours should mean that some embedded thunderstorms will be possible amongst all of this as well. Rainfall will be on and off, with periods of heavier rates mixed with times of light rain to drizzle, through tomorrow morning.

Through the day tomorrow, the low pressure system lifts north, pulling precipitation with it. We have pulled chances of rain out slightly faster with this forecast update, which will make for a slightly longer break between periods of widespread rain. Tomorrow afternoon, areas south of Highway 2 may be nearly clear of all rain, while the chance for a shower or two lingers in the north, which should clear as well Saturday evening. This first round should bring 0.25 - 1.25 inches of rain to the area, highest over the BLA to Iron Range and along the North Shore.

Then our second wave of rain arrives through Sunday morning, which should have a much easier time of actually reaching the ground, with rain starting right away. This system, just a tad further southeast than the first, will bring another 0.5 -1.5 inches of rain (highest amounts over NW WI and the North Shore) and strong east to northeasterly winds to the region. These winds, strongest closer to Lake Superior could see gusts of 30 to 45 mph, and it is still possible a Wind Advisory may be needed for the Twin Ports and North Shore Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. However, recent trends have been bringing winds down slightly, so will hold off on any headline decisions for now. Rain should wind down through the day Monday.

Into next week, some warmer temperatures return with highs in the 50s and 60s (possibly some areas seeing 70). Our pattern remains active however, with multiple additional chances for rain through next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions at INL/DLH/HYR and MVFR conditions at BRD/HIB will be worsening to MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities as the evening progresses due to rain expanding across the region.
Some LIFR ceilings are also possible tonight into mid-Sunday morning as chances have increased (20-40% chance of occurring at the terminals, highest at DLH. Some embedded thunderstorms are also possible at times later this evening and tonight at BRD/HIB/DLH/HYR, lingering longest at HYR. Expect improving visibilities mid to late Saturday afternoon as light rain moves northeast of the area, with most terminals seeing brief improvement in ceilings to MVFR aside from HIB/DLH before falling back down to IFR ceilings late Saturday evening and night.

Southeast winds remain strong, with gusts to 20 to 25 knots through much of this evening, gradually weakening tonight into Saturday morning as winds turn northeasterly to northerly in NE MN and more southerly in WI with the incoming low pressure center, and then picking up again out of the north to northwest Saturday afternoon with gusts to 15 to around 20 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An active period is expected through the weekend across western Lake Superior. Southeast to northeasterly winds today remain strong into Saturday with some gusts of 25 knots overnight, and waves up to 6 feet, especially near the head of the lake. Expect rain and some possible embedded thunderstorms along with these winds. There will be a slight lull late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours, as winds become light out of the north. At this point, waves will stop growing, but our current forecast of wave heights dropping to 2-3 feet may be slightly underdone, as larger swell may linger.
Northeasterly winds pick up again Sunday, this time stronger. Gusts of 35 to 45 knots are expected, especially along teh North Shore, across the Outer Apostle Islands, and into the Twin Ports. These high-end gales continues into Monday morning, slowly decreasing through the day Monday. Sunday night, when winds are strongest, waves of 10 to 15 feet are possible. A Gale Watch remains in effect.
With these strongest winds, expect rain and some possible embedded thunderstorms.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for LSZ121-140>143-146>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>145.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for LSZ144-145.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ146-147-150.

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