Saturday, January19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 4:55PM Saturday January 19, 2019 9:06 PM CST (03:06 UTC) Moonrise 3:19PMMoonset 6:26AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 192335
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
535 pm cst Sat jan 19 2019

Short term (this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 221 pm cst Sat jan 19 2019
the dangerously cold weather continues through the weekend, with the
coldest night of this stretch occurring tonight for most locations
across the northland. Lows will fall to 20 to 30 below zero across
northeast minnesota, with readings of 30 to 40 below possible north
of the iron range. Not as cold in northwest wisconsin where lows
will only fall to around 5 to 20 below zero, warmest near lake
superior. With high pressure centered over northwest ontario north
of minnesota tonight into Sunday morning winds will be minimal under
clear skies, but still just a light wind will cause wind chill
values falling to 50 below or colder in some spots. North to
northeast winds tonight into Sunday will result in continued
meandering lake effect bands impacting parts of the lake shore,
tonight over the south shore then approaching the head of the lake
and parts of the north shore into the day Sunday. Around 1 to 3
inches of fluffy snow is expected, but locally higher amounts are
possible. Highs in the single digits above zero for most spots on
Sunday, with lows Saturday night around 5 to 20 below zero as low
level winds become more southerly and "warmer" air advects in from
the south.

On the synoptic scale, the northwest flow pattern persist at mid to
upper levels with a weak trough currently over northwest ontario
tracking east towards new england as a broad longwave ridge at mid
to upper levels builds over the western states, transitioning
eastward into the great plains late in the weekend. At lower levels
a broad area of high pressure associated with the recent arctic air
is over central manitoba today, building eastward into northwest
ontario tonight, becoming centered over lake superior on Sunday
night. As this high pressure moves through winds will weaken,
turning from northwest to north-northeast tonight, then east to
southeasterly Sunday into Sunday night.

The two hazardous weather concerns over the weekend will be the
dangerously cold temperatures wind chills and lake effect snow. The
cold forecast is fairly straightforward with little airmass change,
lows will be nearly the same as last night. For the lake effect
snow, the forecast is a bit less certain because of the transient
nature of lake effect bands, especially with such frigid temps aloft
and light low level winds. It does not take much to get the lake
effect process going at these temps, and while the flakes will be
fairly small given the low levels, areas in northern bayfield county
recorded 1-4" due to lake effect snow last night. Right now it looks
like the highest amounts will be along the south shore because even
as drier air tries to work its way in from the north today, guidance
is fairly consistent with the northeast winds tonight into Sunday
causing enough low level moisture to return to produce lake effect
snow bands along the south shore and into the twin PORTS by late
Sunday. Amounts around 1 to 3 inches are expected, but locally
higher amounts as high as 3-6" are not out of the question for the
snow belt region if a consistent band remains nearly stationary over
northern iron county for a period as some guidance suggests. The
lake effect then takes a trip up the north shore as winds turn more
southeasterly Sunday night into Monday, with limited impacts to
travel by Monday morning.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 221 pm cst Sat jan 19 2019
the long term forecast period continues to focus on a round of light
to moderate snowfall across the northland Monday afternoon through
the day Tuesday, with a return to very cold temperatures by late
next week.

Monday morning appears to be mostly dry, except for some on-going
chances of light lake effect snow along the north shore due to
southerly flow off lake superior. This southerly flow is a result of
a departing surface high pressure ridge, which will make way for our
next weather system to impact the northland Monday afternoon through
Tuesday. A longwave trough over the intermountain west states will
result in a mid-level shortwave translating through the region,
which will be phased with a broader mid-level longwave trough over
the four corners region of the southwestern united states. 850-700
mb layer warm air advection and isentropic lift will result in
chances of accumulating snow beginning Monday afternoon, and
continuing through at least Tuesday morning. Thaler QG omega progs
indicate the strongest lift will remain to the south of the region
with the parent longwave trough, but with the inverted surface
trough trekking overhead through Tuesday morning, there should be
sufficient lift for precipitation. Snow amounts currently are
expected to range between 3 and 7 inches for much of the northland,
with perhaps some lake enhancement potential along the minnesota
arrowhead due to southerly low-level flow. The southerly flow will
lead to temperatures closer to average for this time of the year,
with highs generally in the middle to upper teens, and lows in the
single digits above zero for Tuesday morning.

Eventually, the snow will come to an end Tuesday, although the
synoptic models disagree on how quickly the snow shifts out of the
region. The consensus model blend indicates the bulk of the snow
exiting the region by Tuesday evening as a surface high pressure
ridge moves through the region. Overnight lows on Wednesday will be
in the single digits - above and below zero. Most of Wednesday will
be dry with the high pressure in control, but a couple of mid-level
shortwaves embedded within the upper-level trough will bring another
round of light snow Thursday. Snow should be hard to get rid of on
Thursday due to northwesterly cyclonic flow lingering over the
region, along with strong cold air advection in the low-levels.

Temperatures will return to well below average for this time of the
year by the end of the work week, with Friday morning lows back
between -10 to -25 degrees c for much of the northland, along with a
prolonged period of lake effect snow along the lake superior
snowbelt through the day Saturday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 535 pm cst Sat jan 19 2019
high pressure will keep much of the region underVFR conditions
through the period. The exception will be around lake superior
which will see MVFR and possible ifr ceilings and snow showers.

The lower ceilings snow showers will be mainly along the south
shore of ashland iron counties this evening, but as low level
winds veer to north northeast later tonight and to east to
southeast during the day Sunday, the MVFR and snow showers will
shift west then north. The MVFR ceilings will make it as far south
as khyr later tonight.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh -20 5 -10 13 10 20 10 20
inl -31 -3 -19 12 0 0 0 20
brd -19 5 -10 13 0 0 10 60
hyr -10 9 -8 15 0 10 0 20
asx -4 10 -8 17 60 70 40 10

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... Wind chill advisory until noon cst Sunday for wiz001-006-007.

Mn... Wind chill advisory until noon cst Sunday for mnz018-025-026-

Wind chill warning until noon cst Sunday for mnz010>012-019>021.

Ls... None.

Short term... Jjm
long term... Jts
aviation... Melde

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi12 minN 610.00 miFair-15°F-20°F77%1033.9 hPa

Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmW4W5CalmCalmNW5N5
1 day agoNW8NW9NW8W6NW5W4NW5NW7W5NW7N7N7N7NE6N7NW5N3NE5NE5NE5CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N4N5NW4W5W9W9W6W5W5W5W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.