Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:34PM Saturday November 17, 2018 5:14 AM CST (11:14 UTC) Moonrise 2:31PMMoonset 12:44AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 170948
afddlh
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
348 am cst Sat nov 17 2018

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 348 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
relatively quiet period for the short term. High pressure will
slide southward across the northern plains with drier air moving
into the northland. Low stratus and lake effect snow showers
(including inland lake effect) will taper off as winds back
westerly today and southwesterly this evening. Skies are expected
to become mostly sunny for most locales by late morning or early
afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler again today with highs in
the low teens northeast to the low 20s from the st. Croix river
valley eastward. Clouds return from the north overnight and Sunday
morning associated with another cool front and shortwave trough
moving into the region. A few flurries or light snow showers are
possible along the international border Sunday with dry conditions
expected elsewhere. Lows tonight will dip into the single digits
across the northland. Boundary layer mixing will keep winds
elevated overnight and limit radiational cooling. Should winds
become calm, even for an hour or two, temperatures may plummet
well below zero. Highs on Sunday will tick slightly warmer with
readings in the middle teens northeast to the middle and upper 20s
south.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 348 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
the northland will start out with temperatures well below normal
then moderate through the week. There will be a couple
opportunities for snow, mainly Sunday night into Monday morning
and again Tuesday into Tuesday night with a mostly dry period then
into Thursday night. Chances for more precipitation arrive late
week. The upper pattern will feature a ridge along the west coast
Sunday which will move into the central CONUS canada Wednesday
into Thursday passing east late week as a trough arrives.

The models are in better agreement moving a clipper system
through the region Sunday night into Monday. The ECMWF finally
caught onto the other models with this feature as well. Light snow
will occur with this clipper, with accumulation from a dusting to
2 inches for most areas. However, there will be a lake
contribution as well affecting portions of the north shore, twin
ports, and parts of the south shore. Although the models are doing
a decent job depicting the low, there are differences in their
low level wind fields which will have a big impact on which areas
receive longer onshore winds and higher snowfall. A few inches of
snow will be possible in areas that can sustain a few hour period
of onshore wind during the time of the larger scale forcing from
the clipper. At this time, it appears the finland, silver bay, and
two harbors area and bayfield peninsula are most likely to see
higher snowfall amounts but that may change as refinement in the
track of the low will occur over the next 24-36 hours.

Snow showers will linger into Monday afternoon over northern
wisconsin but as larger scale forcing moves off and drier air
moves in, additional accumulation will be light. Highs Monday will
only be in the teens far north to mid twenties south.

Warm air advection will develop late Monday night into Tuesday
and this will aid in producing light snow, especially over the
northern half of the northland. Any accumulation is expected to be
light.

Mostly dry conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday night
with highs from the mid twenties to mid thirties Wednesday and mid
thirties to around forty Thursday.

An upper level trough will move over the region Friday along with
a surface low. The models are in general agreement having the
upper trough over the region but show significant differences with
how fast they move the it east and how they handle the surface
low. The ECMWF is much stronger versus a weaker and faster
gfs canadian. We just have chances for mixed precipitation for
now.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1139 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018
MVFR ceilings and visibilities continue across the northland this
evening, along with flurries over some locales. While the snow has
been enough to reduce the vsbys at khib and kfoz into the MVFR
range as of TAF issuance, no accumulation has been observed or is
expected overnight. These flurries should continue through the
overnight hours, and begin to diminish around sunrise as drier air
pours into the region, along with high pressure. The high
pressure system will then bringVFR conditions to the region
through the day Saturday and Saturday evening. There is the
potential for some llws at the tail-end of the TAF period for kinl
as stronger low-level winds move in, but the values appear too
marginal at this point to include in the taf.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 18 7 24 13 10 0 10 70
inl 15 6 18 3 10 10 10 30
brd 19 7 27 15 10 0 0 30
hyr 22 8 25 17 10 0 0 60
asx 22 9 26 17 30 0 10 70

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 10 am cst this morning for lsz146>148.

Small craft advisory until 4 am cst early this morning for
lsz140-141.

Short term... Huyck
long term... Melde
aviation... Jts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi80 minNW 810.00 miOvercast11°F5°F77%1031.7 hPa

Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10
G15
W11NW9NW10NW10
G17
N13NW13N12N9N10N8N7N12N11N9N9N11N8N10N9NW11NW11NW8NW11
1 day agoS4S4S3S5S3SW6SW3W4W3NW3W3NW4NW9NW16
G21
NW13N12NW12NW12NW12NW10NW10NW11N17NW11
2 days agoSE7SE7SE8SE7SE76
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G17
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5S8
G15
5S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.