Friday, February22, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 5:47PM Friday February 22, 2019 10:36 AM CST (16:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 9:02AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 221149
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
549 am cst Fri feb 22 2019

Short term (today through Saturday)
issued at 323 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
a fairly pleasant and warm day on tap with increasing clouds as a
system approaches from the southwest today and eventually will
drive snow and freezing drizzle through the forecast area tonight.

Current thinking is snow will enter the brainerd lakes area
around 6 pm fri. And will be widespread across the forecast area
by midnight. Models are largely in agreement on the QPF amounts
with this system, but each run has been fluctuating on the qpf
maximum location - shifting eastward. So, overall went with more
of a broadbrush on QPF which will result in diminished snowfall
amounts spread over a large area. Due to this, as this system
evolves, a winter weather advisory may be needed. For now, covered
the threat with an sps. This forecast is for 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall with some 0.01 to 0.10" of freezing drizzle. Presence of
ice is the limiting factor in precip type as soundings are not the
classic freezing rain drizzle variety; instead just a broad deep
saturated layer in the vcnty of -10 c. Forcing is caused by weak
lift caused by a right entrance region of an upper level jet and
pva atop a baroclinic zone with low-level convergence from a
nocturnal llj. Transient frontogenetic forcing may also assist in
precip production. Ultimately, there are some decent factors in
place to support a little extra snow than what the current
forecast suggests, but the lack of an organized surface low or
rather a ridge of high pressure does have me a little skeptical on
realizing the potential with many factors in play. Thus, a little
lower confidence than normal for the system tonight.

A strongly forced system will begin to move into the area Saturday

Long term (Saturday night through Thursday)
issued at 323 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
the extended period will feature a strong winter storm that will
affect much of the northland in some way Saturday night into
Sunday. Colder temperatures will follow this storm then possibly
another round of light snow Tuesday Tuesday night.

The models are in pretty good agreement moving an area of low
pressure from near the iowa missouri border at 00z Sunday to the
eastern upper peninsula northern lake michigan area by 12z Sunday.

The surface low will deepen around 15mb during this 12 hour period
and 500mb height falls around 300m will pass just to the southeast
of our northwest wisconsin counties so there will be strong forcing.

Strong upper level divergence will occur as the area will be in a
coupled jet structure with a 135 knot jet into ohio and eastern
great lakes and a weaker jet from northwest ontario into hudson bay.

Plenty of moisture will be present as well with the gulf open. We
will issue a winter storm watch for much of northwest wisconsin and
the arrowhead of minnesota. The ECMWF is most bullish on snow for
the arrowhead so we will include that area in the watch as well. We
feel confident parts of northwest wisconsin, especially
price sawyer ashland iron counties will see a period of heavy snow
Saturday night into Sunday morning. There could be a period freezing
drizzle across much of the northland Saturday evening before the
better forcing and deeper saturation arrive. The biggest threat from
the storm will be snow rather than freezing drizzle rain. Snowfall
totals of a foot can't be ruled out over parts of northwest
wisconsin. The snow will diminish through the day Sunday as the low
is moving at a good clip with strong winds developing in it's wake.

Gusts of 30 mph to around 40 mph will be possible Sunday Sunday
evening, with some higher around lake superior. This will cause
blowing and drifting even after the snow subsides.

Colder air will move in behind the low Sunday night into Monday and
wind chill advisories will likely be needed Sunday night Monday
morning. High temperatures Monday will only be from 5 to 10 degrees.

The GFS continues to show a clipper system bringing a few inches of
snow to parts of the northland Tuesday Tuesday night but the ecmwf
is largely dry. We have a chance for snow going as the canadian also
shows snow during that period. Most of the rest of the period will
be relatively quiet with no big storms expected.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 549 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
weak high pressure was over much of the region this morning but
will be replaced by an inverted trough later tonight into
Saturday. There will also be a shortwave and warm air advection
tonight into Saturday that will provide lift. Conditions varied
widely this morning with an area of ifr lifr ceilings from near
walker to the brainerd lakes into northwest wisconsin advancing
northeast. Other MVFR ceilings existed from the iron range into
the arrowhead with pockets ofVFR occurring as well. We expect
these ifr lifr ceilings to continue northeast this morning but
then for them to gradually scour out or continue northeast leading
to a period ofVFR at most TAF sites for a time today. Ceilings
will then lower later today into tonight to MVFR and snow will
develop sending the visibility to ifr lifr. There could be some
freezing drizzle in spots as well and later updates may include a
mention at some of the TAF sites.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 26 23 31 22 10 90 50 70
inl 24 18 32 18 0 70 70 60
brd 23 22 31 16 40 90 50 50
hyr 29 24 35 24 0 90 60 80
asx 30 24 34 24 0 80 70 90

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for wiz001>004-007>009.

Mn... Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for mnz012-020-021.

Ls... None.

Short term... Wolfe
long term... Melde
aviation... Melde

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi42 minSW 68.00 miOvercast18°F12°F81%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN3Calm3W4NW5W6NW6W3CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmSW5W7SW5SW6W5W4SW6SW3CalmSW5SW6
2 days agoS5S8SW7SW10SW10W7W6NW4CalmCalmSW3S4CalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmSE4CalmSE3SE5E3E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.