Wednesday, May23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
International Falls, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:53PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 5:56 AM CDT (10:56 UTC) Moonrise 1:25PMMoonset 2:04AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near International Falls, MN
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location: 48.58, -93.38     debug

Area Discussion for - Duluth, MN
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Fxus63 kdlh 230808
area forecast discussion
national weather service duluth mn
308 am cdt Wed may 23 2018

Short term (today through Thursday)
issued at 308 am cdt Wed may 23 2018
the short term will see moisture continue to increase across the
northland with lower to mid sixties dewpoints becoming widespread
by Thursday afternoon. Upper level ridging today shift east
tonight into Thursday.

Much of the northland will remain dry today due to the upper level
ridge over the area. However, weak warm air and moisture
advection and increasing instability may be enough for a few
afternoon showers storms from about the siren area west northwest
to aitkin, the brainerd lakes and walker areas. Highs today will
be from around 80 to as high as 85. Off lake winds are expected
to develop through the day cooling lakeside areas.

Moisture advection will increase further tonight with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms over much of the northland. Severe
storms are not expected, but a few strong storms producing brief
heavy rain and small hail will be possible.

Shower and storm chances will continue into Thursday, but they are
not expected to be widespread and chances will be highest over
western portions of the northland. A shortwave will be approaching
from the northern plains but its affects will be most pronounced
Thursday night. A few strong storms will be possible, mainly late
Thursday afternoon into the overnight. Highs Thursday will be in
the lower to middle eighties and with dewpoints in the lower to
middle sixties, it will feel muggy. Lakeside areas will again be

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)
issued at 308 am cdt Wed may 23 2018
the main areas of focus for the extended forecast period continues
to be a more active weather pattern, with chances of showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday, with some very warm
temperatures through early next week.

Thursday night and Friday look to have the highest chances of
thunderstorms, with some possibly strong to severe, as a mid-level
shortwave trough advances over southern canada, with an associated
surface low pressure translating across southern manitoba and
southwest ontario canada. Ahead of the low will be plenty of
instability due to warm and moist air entrenched over the region,
with surface dew points in the lower to middle 60s early Friday
morning, and mixed-layer CAPE values generally in the 500 to 1500
j kg range. A 30 to 40 kt low-level jet should provide good moisture
advection, with pwat values around 1.5", which is near 99% of
climatology per the naefs pwat climatological analysis. 0-6 km bulk
shear of 20 to 30 kts should be a limiting factor for storm
intensity, but with instability as high as it's progged to be, some
strong or severe thunderstorms aren't out of the question,
particularly over north-central minnesota, where a slight risk of
severe storms are laid out by the storm prediction center. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the main threats.

The mid-level shortwave will slowly dive southeastward over the
region, which will bring a weak cold front through the region
Saturday. Instability shouldn't be quite as high Saturday as it
should be Friday due to lower surface dew points in the middle to
upper 50s. Still, mixed-layer CAPE values of 500 to 1000 j kg will
be in place due to the very warm air, with highs expected to be in
the lower to middle 80s. The synoptic scale models are in a bit of
disagreement on the placement of precipitation, but generally looks
to be across our northern counties, closer to the surface low.

From Sunday and beyond, the models tend to be in more disagreement
regarding precipitation chances, but generally, conditions look to
be a bit drier. Forcing looks to be pretty weak as mid-level ridging
develops. There could be a few weak impulses moving over the
northland through Tuesday, but the gfs ECMWF gem aren't in good
agreement regarding the areal coverage of precipitation. However,
the models are in better agreement on warm temperatures remaining
over the region. Expected high temperatures from Sunday through
Tuesday remaining in the lower to middle 80s across the area.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1232 am cdt Wed may 23 2018
high pressure overhead will keep mainlyVFR conditions in place
through the period. However, there may be some MVFR fog at
hib dlh hyr start in the 09-11z time frame and then rapidly
improving by 13z. A warm front will begin to approach the southern
reaches of the area late in the period. Expecting most in terms of
showers and storms to hold off through the period, but did add
vcsh late at kbrd if activity moves in quicker than expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dlh 81 54 81 61 10 40 30 50
inl 83 58 86 61 0 50 40 60
brd 82 61 87 63 30 30 40 50
hyr 83 60 87 65 10 40 20 50
asx 81 51 86 60 0 30 30 50

Dlh watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Ls... None.

Short term... Melde
long term... Jts
aviation... Bjh

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Falls International Airport, MN0 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair49°F46°F90%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from INL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmSW3W4W3Calm343N5SW54N6NW5E6E4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmS3S4W5CalmSE4CalmNE9NE10N7NE5NE73CalmCalmSW5SW4SW4SW3SW3S3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmW3W5W9W6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Duluth, MN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.