Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Akutan, AK
March 28, 2024 12:31 PM AKDT (20:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:29 AM Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 11:20 PM Moonset 6:30 AM |
PKZ771 Unalaska Bay- 336 Am Akdt Thu Mar 28 2024
.small craft advisory through Friday - .
Today - SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
Tonight - S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri - W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri night - NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat - SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun - NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Mon - SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
PKZ700
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Anchorage, AK
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FXAK68 PAFC 281312 AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 512 AM AKDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Active weather pattern will continue for Southcentral with lingering rain and snow showers, fog and low ceilings this morning for Anchorage as well as the Mat-Su and Susitna Valleys. Mostly cloudy skies and light winds are found elsewhere across Southcentral this morning. Conditions will briefly improve this afternoon before the impacts of another low pressure system moving into the Northwest Gulf begin to be felt tonight and continue through the weekend.
A strong front wrapping around a low pressure system moving north of the Northern Pacific to near Kodiak Island Friday afternoon will sweep north into the Northern Gulf of Alaska with widespread Gales and Small Craft conditions beginning late tonight and will spread north to the coast by Friday morning. A lee side trough will develop tonight through Cook Inlet and combined with high pressure over the Copper River Basin and PWS will bring strong winds to the Anchorage Hillside, Turnagain Arm as well as the Mat-Su late tonight and on Friday. Expect wind gust to 55 mph on the Anchorage Hillside and Turnagain Arm on Friday and Friday night while 40 mph wind gusts will develop in the Mat-Su after midnight tonight and will continue Friday and Friday night. The strong downslope winds in these areas will help limit precipitation with a only a chance of rain and snow Friday and Friday night. As the drying and warming winds subside on Saturday and upper level forcing increases with a second low and subsequent surge of moisture expect rain and snow on Saturday and Saturday night over a broad area in Southcentral including the Anchorage bowl, the Mat-Su and Western Kenai Peninsula. Snow levels rise to between 500 and 1,500 feet on Saturday limiting snow accumulations at sea level however as snow levels drop Saturday night and Sunday and then drop back to near sea level on Sunday, snow accumulations of several inches are possible, including the Anchorage bowl, the Western Kenai and the Mat-Su. Heavy snow accumulations are possible at pass level and in the mountains with this system. The exact track and timing of colder air moving in behind the system will greatly affect snowfall totals...stay tuned.
-CC
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, the BERING SEA and the ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Sunday)...
An active pattern begins for Southwestern Alaska and the Bering Sea the latter portion of this week as an upper-level trough is set to produce several fronts and low pressure systems to move through the region. The first of which is a weak surface low pressure system stacked underneath the driving upper-level low that has kept the region unsettled the last few days. Influence from the system observable at the surface is waning; however, for now is still producing clearer and drier conditions for Southwest Alaska tonight. Coldest temperatures tonight expected in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and the Kuskokwim Delta. This incumbent low, and its influence in the area will be replaced by a rapidly approaching low pressure system from the northern Pacific.
A frontal boundary along the leading edge of this low has begun to bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain to the central and eastern Aleutians. The trailing north Pacific low will increase winds across the Aleutians as it crosses into the Bering. A brief period of heavy rain/snow and strong winds are possible before temperatures quickly warm above freezing. This low is expected to bring widespread gales (>34 kts) and areas of storm-force (>48 kts) gusts to the Aleutians and Southern Bering. The front on the leading side of the approaching low will likely be fairly progressive, sweeping across the Aleutian Chain into the Pribilofs Thursday, and into Southwest Alaska by Thursday night. The Central and Eastern Aleutians will likely see a quick shot of moderate to heavy rain/snow showers as the front sweeps across with the precipitation either coming down as rain, or melting fairly quickly once on the ground.
The low and front will move over the Pribilofs similarly by late this morning, bringing a period of more prolonged snowfall and gusty winds. Being further north, and cooler in temperature than the Aleutians, the precipitation type is expected to remain as snowfall. Blowing snow is expected to impact the Pribilofs during this time as gusty winds loft newly falling snow. Visibility reductions down to half a mile are expected with brief periods of blizzard conditions possible. The Pribilofs will likely see up to 4 inches of snow accumulation through the day on Thursday, with gusts up to 35 mph. Given the elongated shape of the low, it is likely the Pribilofs will see a resurgence of gusty winds out of the northwest Friday morning, which may reinvigorate the blowing snow threat.
The low is then expected to continue toward Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta on Friday. Some areas across southern Bristol Bay into the AK Peninsula may see a transition to rain, but elsewhere across southwest Alaska precipitation should stay as snow given colder air in place. This system has the potential to produce blowing snow and blizzard conditions for most of the Southwest coast Friday night into Saturday. Snow accumulations of 2-3 inches are anticipated for most interior areas, with the highest amounts of 5-6 inches for the northern side of Bristol Bay from Dillingham to Togiak, and the Kuskokwim Delta coast, including Kipnuk, Kwigillingok, and Nunivak Island. Some uncertainty remains concerning how high the freezing level will lift across this region, which would reduce both the accumulation of snow on the ground, and the ability for gusty winds to loft snow. However, visibility reductions down to at least half a mile are expected during this time from blowing snow, with wind gusts to 45 mph expected. As such, the Winter Storm Watch has been replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory, with the worst conditions expected for coastal areas of these regions. Please be advised that periods of blizzard conditions are still possible for these areas. Stay tuned for the latest updates.
-CL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...
There is a large spread of uncertainty even at the beginning of the long term period on Sunday, with a roughly 980 mb low moving northward into Interior Alaska. The deterministic EC continues to depict the furthest west solution, driving the low through the Kuskokwim Valley, while the deterministic GFS and GDPS are further east, tracking the low up through Cook Inlet and across the Alaska Range. However, ensemble guidance continues to be located further west, with the vast majority of members of each ensemble tracking the low over Southwest Alaska. Though low confidence, this seems to slightly favor the warmer, western solution. This would likely limit precipitation amounts in the lee of the coastal mountains, but would bring strong winds to Anchorage, Palmer, and interior Bristol Bay, with heavy precipitation along the north Gulf coast and widespread light snow across much of Southwest Alaska. As the low exits to the north on Sunday, colder air rushes in behind on southwesterly flow, leading to upslope snow along the Talkeetna Mountains and the coastal mountains preferentially around eastern Prince William Sound through Sunday night.
At the same time, there is good confidence that a deep trough dives south from the Bering Strait Sunday night and reaches the Gulf of Alaska by Monday as it phases with another series of shortwave troughs lifting out of the North Pacific. This combination of features will draw cold, dry air across the Aleutian Range, producing likely gale force gap winds south of the Alaska Peninsula and into the western Gulf. While snow comes to an end from west to east for Southwest Alaska with the increasing dry air, the focus of precipitation shifts eastward as moisture is drawn north through Cook Inlet, leading to the potential for snow from Kenai to Talkeetna Monday evening into Tuesday. As the colder, drier air filters into Southcentral on Tuesday night, precipitation begins to clear out.
Out west, there is good confidence that another large low pushes into the Bering Sea for mid-week, though timing of this feature is uncertain. Tuesday morning, its strong front looks to lift across the Aleutian Chain. Its front will be associated with a strong push of warm air, meaning this precipitation will likely fall as all rain. The front pushes to the Southwest coast by Wednesday, bringing copious moisture, with precipitable water values of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year streaming across the Alaska Peninsula. With a pre-existing cold air mass in place, there is a significant chance that the above freezing air moving in aloft over Southwest Alaska with the warm front causes potential for freezing rain.
-CQ
AVIATION
PANC...Predominantly MVFR conditions through tonight as the atmosphere remains largely saturated. Light drizzle has given way to a few flurries, and radar shows light vicinity showers drifting westward over Cook Inlet. The departure of a trough overhead should signal a decline in precipitation, but areas of fog may move over PANC at times through this morning. Fog could introduce occasional IFR/LIFR conditions, though should be shorter lived than yesterday.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 512 AM AKDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Active weather pattern will continue for Southcentral with lingering rain and snow showers, fog and low ceilings this morning for Anchorage as well as the Mat-Su and Susitna Valleys. Mostly cloudy skies and light winds are found elsewhere across Southcentral this morning. Conditions will briefly improve this afternoon before the impacts of another low pressure system moving into the Northwest Gulf begin to be felt tonight and continue through the weekend.
A strong front wrapping around a low pressure system moving north of the Northern Pacific to near Kodiak Island Friday afternoon will sweep north into the Northern Gulf of Alaska with widespread Gales and Small Craft conditions beginning late tonight and will spread north to the coast by Friday morning. A lee side trough will develop tonight through Cook Inlet and combined with high pressure over the Copper River Basin and PWS will bring strong winds to the Anchorage Hillside, Turnagain Arm as well as the Mat-Su late tonight and on Friday. Expect wind gust to 55 mph on the Anchorage Hillside and Turnagain Arm on Friday and Friday night while 40 mph wind gusts will develop in the Mat-Su after midnight tonight and will continue Friday and Friday night. The strong downslope winds in these areas will help limit precipitation with a only a chance of rain and snow Friday and Friday night. As the drying and warming winds subside on Saturday and upper level forcing increases with a second low and subsequent surge of moisture expect rain and snow on Saturday and Saturday night over a broad area in Southcentral including the Anchorage bowl, the Mat-Su and Western Kenai Peninsula. Snow levels rise to between 500 and 1,500 feet on Saturday limiting snow accumulations at sea level however as snow levels drop Saturday night and Sunday and then drop back to near sea level on Sunday, snow accumulations of several inches are possible, including the Anchorage bowl, the Western Kenai and the Mat-Su. Heavy snow accumulations are possible at pass level and in the mountains with this system. The exact track and timing of colder air moving in behind the system will greatly affect snowfall totals...stay tuned.
-CC
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, the BERING SEA and the ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Sunday)...
An active pattern begins for Southwestern Alaska and the Bering Sea the latter portion of this week as an upper-level trough is set to produce several fronts and low pressure systems to move through the region. The first of which is a weak surface low pressure system stacked underneath the driving upper-level low that has kept the region unsettled the last few days. Influence from the system observable at the surface is waning; however, for now is still producing clearer and drier conditions for Southwest Alaska tonight. Coldest temperatures tonight expected in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and the Kuskokwim Delta. This incumbent low, and its influence in the area will be replaced by a rapidly approaching low pressure system from the northern Pacific.
A frontal boundary along the leading edge of this low has begun to bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain to the central and eastern Aleutians. The trailing north Pacific low will increase winds across the Aleutians as it crosses into the Bering. A brief period of heavy rain/snow and strong winds are possible before temperatures quickly warm above freezing. This low is expected to bring widespread gales (>34 kts) and areas of storm-force (>48 kts) gusts to the Aleutians and Southern Bering. The front on the leading side of the approaching low will likely be fairly progressive, sweeping across the Aleutian Chain into the Pribilofs Thursday, and into Southwest Alaska by Thursday night. The Central and Eastern Aleutians will likely see a quick shot of moderate to heavy rain/snow showers as the front sweeps across with the precipitation either coming down as rain, or melting fairly quickly once on the ground.
The low and front will move over the Pribilofs similarly by late this morning, bringing a period of more prolonged snowfall and gusty winds. Being further north, and cooler in temperature than the Aleutians, the precipitation type is expected to remain as snowfall. Blowing snow is expected to impact the Pribilofs during this time as gusty winds loft newly falling snow. Visibility reductions down to half a mile are expected with brief periods of blizzard conditions possible. The Pribilofs will likely see up to 4 inches of snow accumulation through the day on Thursday, with gusts up to 35 mph. Given the elongated shape of the low, it is likely the Pribilofs will see a resurgence of gusty winds out of the northwest Friday morning, which may reinvigorate the blowing snow threat.
The low is then expected to continue toward Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta on Friday. Some areas across southern Bristol Bay into the AK Peninsula may see a transition to rain, but elsewhere across southwest Alaska precipitation should stay as snow given colder air in place. This system has the potential to produce blowing snow and blizzard conditions for most of the Southwest coast Friday night into Saturday. Snow accumulations of 2-3 inches are anticipated for most interior areas, with the highest amounts of 5-6 inches for the northern side of Bristol Bay from Dillingham to Togiak, and the Kuskokwim Delta coast, including Kipnuk, Kwigillingok, and Nunivak Island. Some uncertainty remains concerning how high the freezing level will lift across this region, which would reduce both the accumulation of snow on the ground, and the ability for gusty winds to loft snow. However, visibility reductions down to at least half a mile are expected during this time from blowing snow, with wind gusts to 45 mph expected. As such, the Winter Storm Watch has been replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory, with the worst conditions expected for coastal areas of these regions. Please be advised that periods of blizzard conditions are still possible for these areas. Stay tuned for the latest updates.
-CL
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...
There is a large spread of uncertainty even at the beginning of the long term period on Sunday, with a roughly 980 mb low moving northward into Interior Alaska. The deterministic EC continues to depict the furthest west solution, driving the low through the Kuskokwim Valley, while the deterministic GFS and GDPS are further east, tracking the low up through Cook Inlet and across the Alaska Range. However, ensemble guidance continues to be located further west, with the vast majority of members of each ensemble tracking the low over Southwest Alaska. Though low confidence, this seems to slightly favor the warmer, western solution. This would likely limit precipitation amounts in the lee of the coastal mountains, but would bring strong winds to Anchorage, Palmer, and interior Bristol Bay, with heavy precipitation along the north Gulf coast and widespread light snow across much of Southwest Alaska. As the low exits to the north on Sunday, colder air rushes in behind on southwesterly flow, leading to upslope snow along the Talkeetna Mountains and the coastal mountains preferentially around eastern Prince William Sound through Sunday night.
At the same time, there is good confidence that a deep trough dives south from the Bering Strait Sunday night and reaches the Gulf of Alaska by Monday as it phases with another series of shortwave troughs lifting out of the North Pacific. This combination of features will draw cold, dry air across the Aleutian Range, producing likely gale force gap winds south of the Alaska Peninsula and into the western Gulf. While snow comes to an end from west to east for Southwest Alaska with the increasing dry air, the focus of precipitation shifts eastward as moisture is drawn north through Cook Inlet, leading to the potential for snow from Kenai to Talkeetna Monday evening into Tuesday. As the colder, drier air filters into Southcentral on Tuesday night, precipitation begins to clear out.
Out west, there is good confidence that another large low pushes into the Bering Sea for mid-week, though timing of this feature is uncertain. Tuesday morning, its strong front looks to lift across the Aleutian Chain. Its front will be associated with a strong push of warm air, meaning this precipitation will likely fall as all rain. The front pushes to the Southwest coast by Wednesday, bringing copious moisture, with precipitable water values of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year streaming across the Alaska Peninsula. With a pre-existing cold air mass in place, there is a significant chance that the above freezing air moving in aloft over Southwest Alaska with the warm front causes potential for freezing rain.
-CQ
AVIATION
PANC...Predominantly MVFR conditions through tonight as the atmosphere remains largely saturated. Light drizzle has given way to a few flurries, and radar shows light vicinity showers drifting westward over Cook Inlet. The departure of a trough overhead should signal a decline in precipitation, but areas of fog may move over PANC at times through this morning. Fog could introduce occasional IFR/LIFR conditions, though should be shorter lived than yesterday.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Akun Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:58 AM AKDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:12 AM AKDT 2.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:24 AM AKDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:42 AM AKDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:30 AM AKDT Moonset
Thu -- 03:24 PM AKDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:32 PM AKDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:58 AM AKDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:12 AM AKDT 2.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:24 AM AKDT 2.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:42 AM AKDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:30 AM AKDT Moonset
Thu -- 03:24 PM AKDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:32 PM AKDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Akun Bay, Akun Island, Alaska, Tide feet
12 am |
2.3 |
1 am |
2.3 |
2 am |
2.4 |
3 am |
2.4 |
4 am |
2.4 |
5 am |
2.3 |
6 am |
2.2 |
7 am |
2.2 |
8 am |
2.2 |
9 am |
2.1 |
10 am |
1.8 |
11 am |
1.5 |
12 pm |
1.2 |
1 pm |
0.8 |
2 pm |
0.5 |
3 pm |
0.4 |
4 pm |
0.4 |
5 pm |
0.5 |
6 pm |
0.8 |
7 pm |
1.2 |
8 pm |
1.5 |
9 pm |
1.9 |
10 pm |
2.2 |
11 pm |
2.4 |
Trident Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:57 AM AKDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:28 AM AKDT 2.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:42 AM AKDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:31 AM AKDT Moonset
Thu -- 11:47 AM AKDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM AKDT 3.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:32 PM AKDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:57 AM AKDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:28 AM AKDT 2.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:42 AM AKDT Sunrise
Thu -- 09:31 AM AKDT Moonset
Thu -- 11:47 AM AKDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:27 PM AKDT 3.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:32 PM AKDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Trident Bay, Akun Island, Alaska, Tide feet
12 am |
2 |
1 am |
2.2 |
2 am |
2.5 |
3 am |
2.7 |
4 am |
2.7 |
5 am |
2.6 |
6 am |
2.3 |
7 am |
2 |
8 am |
1.5 |
9 am |
1 |
10 am |
0.6 |
11 am |
0.4 |
12 pm |
0.3 |
1 pm |
0.4 |
2 pm |
0.8 |
3 pm |
1.2 |
4 pm |
1.7 |
5 pm |
2.2 |
6 pm |
2.7 |
7 pm |
2.9 |
8 pm |
3.1 |
9 pm |
3 |
10 pm |
2.7 |
11 pm |
2.4 |
Bethel/Anchorage,AK
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